The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[el sid]

3 minutes ago, Bobzaruni said:

What? They're just asking for early numbers why are you yapping?

He's obviously interested. And he's a long-time member of this forum (in contrast to you). I'm really interested what he thinks, I wrote " no offense".

[Firepower]

15 minutes ago, el sid said:

 I think you're no liberal (no offense ^^).

This place is great when it comes to tracking, reviews, reviews before a film is even released, Hollywood infos in general...but in recent years we are sometimes out of touch with the normal population. Some films are hyped, other are overlooked at all.

So...what do think about Napoleon's chances in America? Is Napoleon a thing or not (given it took place centuries ago and in Europe)? And do you think that the only decent reviews hurt or are history fans immune? 

I think reviews didn't hurt, but didn't elevate the movie either, so it's somewhere in the middle. OS will carry it, but it could do well in US for this kind of movie if audience reviews are better than critics reviews. Could go either way, but I'm curious if great stats of both trailers will translate into solid box office in this case.

[MovieMan89]

I give a net zero chance of a nearly rotten Ridley Scott historical epic doing well at the DOM box office. Even if these were the healthiest of box office days 

[emoviefan]

9 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I give a net zero chance of a nearly rotten Ridley Scott historical epic doing well at the DOM box office. Even if these were the healthiest of box office days 

Depends on what you consider doing well at the box office. I think they will be happy with 60-80 million domestic and the presales seem to indicate it can do that with good WOM and a favorable market. and just like KOTFM Apple did not make this movie and Sony did not come on board to dist expecting  massive box office. Most of these epics outside of Gladiator in the last 30 years or so have not done massive box office. Braveheart in 95 won BP and  still did only 75 million DM. Following Gladiator Troy did okay DM much better OS Alexander bombed and Kingdom of Heaven until that directors cut saved it's reputation.

[Mulder]

People have described Napoleon as being almost spoof-ish. This isn't going to endear it to the kind of audience for these films so I think acting like it'll get good WOM is being...a bit too forward.

[emoviefan]

20 minutes ago, Mulder said:

People have described Napoleon as being almost spoof-ish. This isn't going to endear it to the kind of audience for these films so I think acting like it'll get good WOM is being...a bit too forward.

Yet it still has the large scale battle sequences  from what it sounds like. 

[abracadabra1998]

Wasn’t able to track Wish or Napoleon today sadly, some stuff came up. 1/3 to 2/5 of trolls EA is what I was seeing in Minny too so ~400k makes sense. Hope we get official numbers for both EAs, drives me crazy not knowing them. 
 

Be back tomorrow with T-2 numbers!

[TheFlatLannister]

2 hours ago, Relevation said:

It’s probably the EA presence today that’s siphoning sales off TUE. Wouldn’t expect it to be the reviews since yesterday had strong growth. I expect a rebound 100+ tickets sold day tomorrow.

Forgot about EA. So yes most likely 

Edited November 19, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[keysersoze123]

Napoleon MTC1

Previews - 19261/256931 338149.55 1581 shows 

Wednesday - 14537/328501 246985.37 2151 shows

 

Release is so far not that big and its previews are on discount tuesday. Its not comparable to something like MI7 which sold 81K+ at similar point. I think mid 20s by opening Sunday is good for this movie.  

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

I give a net zero chance of a nearly rotten Ridley Scott historical epic doing well at the DOM box office. Even if these were the healthiest of box office days 

There was no sign of a breakout prior to embargo. I think the genre is just too niche to do anything crazy. Its pretty clear Oppenheimer was a crazy outlier and adult dramas are never going to be able to contend with more corporatized films. 

[Bob Train]

33 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

There was no sign of a breakout prior to embargo. I think the genre is just too niche to do anything crazy. Its pretty clear Oppenheimer was a crazy outlier and adult dramas are never going to be able to contend with more corporatized films. 

Tbf, $300m+ DOM for an R-rated drama was never normal. Before Oppenheimer, the only one that had done it is Passion of the Christ. 

[keysersoze123]

Wish MTC1

Previews(T-3) - 14338/378757 216926.82 2458 shows

Wednesday - 17766/612013 244211.10 3770 shows

 

Another movie headed somewhere around Trolls previews. Probably lower with early shows. But let us see how Wednesday presales goes. 

[YM!]

17 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Wish MTC1

Previews(T-3) - 14338/378757 216926.82 2458 shows

Wednesday - 17766/612013 244211.10 3770 shows

 

Another movie headed somewhere around Trolls previews. Probably lower with early shows. But let us see how Wednesday presales goes. 

Seems to be about 65% of Mutant Mayhem’s previews 

 

Previews(8/1) - 22218/528323 363997.92 3345 shows

 

However, I suspect MM likely skewed older and had more PLFs which could’ve thrown off the ATP (also with the whole way previews were set up for that film, might be a not so perfect comparison). Fell quite a bit off from Elemental but at only being 5% ahead. If we decrease ATP by 30% for DT, that spits out around 1.75M. Think it should do around 1.5M for the previews even with Discount Tuesday. Throw in EA, should be around 2M.

Edited November 19, 2023 by YM!

[Relevation]

18 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Wish MTC1

Previews(T-3) - 14338/378757 216926.82 2458 shows

Wednesday - 17766/612013 244211.10 3770 shows

 

Another movie headed somewhere around Trolls previews. Probably lower with early shows. But let us see how Wednesday presales goes. 

But Wish is… way ahead of where Trolls was at for T-3?

 

Trolls Band Together MTC1 (T-3)

Previews - 6215/323717 88443.95 2157 shows +954

Friday - 13945/444159 199792.03 2850 shows +3527

 

Wish is at 2.31x of Trolls for Thurs previews, so even if you hit it with a 25% downward adjustment for discount TUE, that still spits out a comp of like $2.25M pure TUE 

 

Add in $400K from EA and Wish would stand at ~$2.6-2.7M for total previews, decently ahead of Trolls. Wish falling behind Trolls’s $2.47M total previews would entail some bad final week pace.

[keysersoze123]

18 minutes ago, Relevation said:

But Wish is… way ahead of where Trolls was at for T-3?

 

Trolls Band Together MTC1 (T-3)

Previews - 6215/323717 88443.95 2157 shows +954

Friday - 13945/444159 199792.03 2850 shows +3527

 

Wish is at 2.31x of Trolls for Thurs previews, so even if you hit it with a 25% downward adjustment for discount TUE, that still spits out a comp of like $2.25M pure TUE 

 

Add in $400K from EA and Wish would stand at ~$2.6-2.7M for total previews, decently ahead of Trolls. Wish falling behind Trolls’s $2.47M total previews would entail some bad final week pace.

Discount adjustment is higher than that. Plus Trolls under indexed at MTC1(early shows were higher at MTC2 over MTC1). Wish is other way around. More skewed at MTC1 than Trolls. 

 

  

29 minutes ago, YM! said:

Seems to be about 65% of Mutant Mayhem’s previews 

 

Previews(8/1) - 22218/528323 363997.92 3345 shows

 

However, I suspect MM likely skewed older and had more PLFs which could’ve thrown off the ATP (also with the whole way previews were set up for that film, might be a not so perfect comparison). Fell quite a bit off from Elemental but at only being 5% ahead. If we decrease ATP by 30% for DT, that spits out around 1.75M. Think it should do around 1.5M for the previews even with Discount Tuesday. Throw in EA, should be around 2M.

Disney movies tend to over index at MTC1 even more than something like turtles. Let us wait and see. its just a guess at this point. 

Edited November 19, 2023 by keysersoze123

[abracadabra1998]

From Deadline’s update, seems like Trolls’ EA gross was $1.1 Million 

[PrinceRico]

9 hours ago, Relevation said:

 

23.6x the T-37 total of Wish and more tickets sold than Napoleon at T-6

 

$30M+ opening week in the cards?

Big breakout in store 

[Manny G]

11 hours ago, Relevation said:

 

23.6x the T-37 total of Wish and more tickets sold than Napoleon at T-6

 

$30M+ opening week in the cards?

A $30M for this movie would be fantastic, between that lucrative holiday corridor and the Oscar buzz it could translates into a $150M dom total. 

[HummingLemon496]

12 minutes ago, Manny G said:

A $30M for this movie would be fantastic, between that lucrative holiday corridor and the Oscar buzz it could translates into a $150M dom total. 

No competition as well

[PrinceRico]

I just noticed the original The Color Purple directed by Spielberg made over 100 million domestic in 1985.