The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

Godzilla Minus One MTC1

Previews - 19081/117897 280667.25 1053 shows

Friday - 19653/202875 274446.19 1750 shows

 

I am thinking 900K-1m just for thursday and around 2.2-2.5m including early shows yesterday. It did better yesterday than today :-)

 

If it has good walkups over the weekend it should be good for low double digits or so. 

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Blue Beetle and Shazam are much better comps than Guardians for this movie. Its smaller and they are also DCEU movies !!!

True, especially with how Disney plays such a big role in MCU films here. $6M+ just seems crazy high though. Will probably add it all the same 

[HummingLemon496]

10 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

True, especially with how Disney plays such a big role in MCU films here. $6M+ just seems crazy high though. Will probably add it all the same 

The Blue Beetle comp would only spit out a crazy high number initially because it's a T-X comparison so at first you'll be comparing Aquaman 2's first 12-ish days of sales vs Blue Beetle's first day of sales. It'll decrease rapidly so yes I do think you should add Blue Beetle in as a comp

[keysersoze123]

22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Renaissance MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 104407/341227 2623177.00 1809 shows

Friday - 89525/777920 2270362.00 3835 shows

Renaissance MTC1

Previews - 112048/340093 2804216.00 1815 shows

Friday - 95427/761299 2415085.96 3791 shows

 

I could not track final 2 days of Eras and so I cannot say how that finished, but no movie I have tracked has been as front loaded as Renaissance for sure. It barely had any walkups today :-) I think Hunger Games should win the weekend and it could be close between Renaissance and Zilla.  

 

As far as previews I am thinking somewhere around 4.3-4.5m. 

[SchumacherFTW]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Godzilla Minus One MTC1

Previews - 19081/117897 280667.25 1053 shows

Friday - 19653/202875 274446.19 1750 shows

 

I am thinking 900K-1m just for thursday and around 2.2-2.5m including early shows yesterday. It did better yesterday than today 🙂

 

If it has good walkups over the weekend it should be good for low double digits or so. 

Godzilla making double digits in any form would be shocking and a big win for foreign film. Still can't see it but here's hoping 

[Brainbug]

Godzilla getting over 10M would be insanely good.

[elcaballero]

What's Silent Night looking at? I assume not great?

[Joyous Legion]

10 hours ago, Flip said:

For the 4 day 50 million isn’t too far of a stretch, it could play out like 6-12-14-5-13, if previews somehow could get up to that number

Pitch Perfect 3 turned a 20M 3daybinto 26.5 4day, a good bar for AQM the way things stand imo

[HummingLemon496]

34 minutes ago, Legion Again said:

Pitch Perfect 3 turned a 20M 3daybinto 26.5 4day, a good bar for AQM the way things stand imo

$18M/$24M is my guess tbh. $85-90M total.

 

 

Edited December 1, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[Taylor89]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Renaissance MTC1

Previews - 112048/340093 2804216.00 1815 shows

Friday - 95427/761299 2415085.96 3791 shows

 

I could not track final 2 days of Eras and so I cannot say how that finished, but no movie I havetracked has been as front loaded as Renaissance for sure. It barely had any walkups today 🙂 I think Hunger Games should win the weekend and it could be close between Renaissance and Zilla.  

 

As far as previews I am thinking somewhere around 4.3-4.5m. 

 

 

Edited December 1, 2023 by Taylor89

[Joyous Legion]

4 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

(0.372x) of The Marvels $2.45M Previews

(0.458x) of Indy 5 $3.30M Previews

(0.169x) of GOTG 3 $2.96M Previews

(0.459x) of The Flash $4.45M Previews

Comps AVG: $3.29M

 

Well, Blue beetle comp will probably spit out $6.5M. Not sure if I'm going to add it 

 

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Blue Beetle and Shazam are much better comps than Guardians for this movie. Its smaller and they are also DCEU movies !!!

Just to add to this, would be useful to have at least one comp that is smaller than it instead of bigger. I'd feel more comfortable whipping out the Ole size adjusted comp at that point

 

I would do a few days of first N vs first N instead of the straight T-N though

Edited December 1, 2023 by Legion Again

[HummingLemon496]

17 minutes ago, Legion Again said:

 

Just to add to this, would be useful to have at least one comp that is smaller than it instead of bigger. I'd feel more comfortable whipping out the Ole size adjusted comp at that point

 

I would do a few days of first N vs first N instead of the straight T-N though

Is there even a good smaller comp? Which big blockbuster this year opened to sub-$25M (b/c that's where Aquaman is tracking)?

 

Also you're one of the most accurate trackers/predictors on this forum

Edited December 1, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[Taylor89]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Renaissance MTC1

Previews - 112048/340093 2804216.00 1815 shows

Friday - 95427/761299 2415085.96 3791 shows

 

I could not track final 2 days of Eras and so I cannot say how that finished, but no movie I have tracked has been as front loaded as Renaissance for sure. It barely had any walkups today 🙂 I think Hunger Games should win the weekend and it could be close between Renaissance and Zilla.  

 

As far as previews I am thinking somewhere around 4.3-4.5m. 

 

15m?

[Joyous Legion]

2 hours ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Is there even a good smaller comp? Which big blockbuster this year opened to sub-$25M (b/c that's where Aquaman is tracking)?

 

Also you're one of the most accurate trackers/predictors on this forum

Aquaman's weekend will be hurt by the calendar but I meant a movie with smaller pre-sales for th. BB and SZH2 are the natural choices though they'll require some care handling differences in length until we hit final week.

[vafrow]

22 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Wonka, T-15, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Theatres: 5

Total Sales: 17

New Sales since last update: 16

Growth: n/a

Showtimes: 20

Radius 19km

 

Showtimes by timeslot:

Late afternoon: 4

Early Evening: 8

Late Evening: 8

 

Showtimes by format

Regular: 0

Dolby: 7

VIP: 4

IMAX: 6

4DX: 3

 

Comps

0.362x of HG:BoSS (D1) for $2.1M

 

 

I've been waiting for numbers to be better before restarting posting updates. It's still not where I'd expect it to be, but there has been movement this week.

 

Hunger Games provides a comp, but it was day one, and it grew quickly it's first few days, and it's going to leave Wonka behind pretty quickly. Using Marvels as a comp is much worse, as it sold 329 tickets by this point.

 

Wonka, T-14, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Theatres: 5

Total Sales: 23

New Sales since last update: 6

Growth: 35%

Showtimes: 20

Radius 19km

 

Showtimes by timeslot:

Late afternoon: 4

Early Evening: 8

Late Evening: 8

 

Showtimes by format

Regular: 0

Dolby: 7

VIP: 4

IMAX: 6

4DX: 3

 

Comps

0.303x of HG:BoSS (D2) for $1.7M

 

It's showing growth, but still far off a reasonable sales level.

[JimmyB]

Do social media reactions move the needle anymore? The over the top positive reactions read like The Onion and the average moviegoer has been burned so many times by over the top positive reactions and the movie is meh or just bad. 

[Eric the Minion]

Quorum Updates

The Boy and the Heron T-8: 21.21%

Eileen T-8: 14.32%

The Color Purple T-25: 42.2%

The Beekeeper T-43: 27.8%

Mean Girls T-43: 40.38%

The First Omen T-127: 22.5%

 

Godzilla Minus One T-1: 23.94% Awareness

Final Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 11% chance of 10M

 

Renaissance: A Film by Beyonce T-1: 31.67% Awareness

Final Awareness: 36% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 21% chance of 10M

 

Silent Night T-1: 36.82% Awareness

Final Awareness: 36% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 21% chance of 10M

 

Argylle T-64: 16.06% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 29% chance of 10M

Medium Awareness: 29% chance of 10M

[Arlborn]

20 minutes ago, JimmyB said:

Do social media reactions move the needle anymore? The over the top positive reactions read like The Onion and the average moviegoer has been burned so many times by over the top positive reactions and the movie is meh or just bad. 

I think they would never have moved the needle for a movie like Wonka in any time period, ever. They used to move the needle for movies with heavy fan rush, like YA movies or CBMs, but I agree that nowadays even that has diminished a lot.

 

Even RT doesn't move the needle as much for many movies as it used to. I think many people now have just gone back to literally waiting on WOM before deciding to get a ticket, which is definitely not good news for the industry.

[Wandavisionlover0924]

19 minutes ago, JimmyB said:

Do social media reactions move the needle anymore? The over the top positive reactions read like The Onion and the average moviegoer has been burned so many times by over the top positive reactions and the movie is meh or just bad. 

I personally don't think so.

[Wandavisionlover0924]

21 minutes ago, Eric Bonaparte said:

Quorum Updates

The Boy and the Heron T-8: 21.21%

Eileen T-8: 14.32%

The Color Purple T-25: 42.2%

The Beekeeper T-43: 27.8%

Mean Girls T-43: 40.38%

The First Omen T-127: 22.5%

 

Godzilla Minus One T-1: 23.94% Awareness

Final Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 11% chance of 10M

 

Renaissance: A Film by Beyonce T-1: 31.67% Awareness

Final Awareness: 36% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 21% chance of 10M

 

Silent Night T-1: 36.82% Awareness

Final Awareness: 36% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 21% chance of 10M

 

Argylle T-64: 16.06% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 29% chance of 10M

Medium Awareness: 29% chance of 10M

Did anything change since the last update?