The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Porthos]

On 2/14/2024 at 2:08 AM, Porthos said:

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-16 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	171	22633	24727	2094	8.47%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

92

 

T-16 Comps         UNIFORMLY TERRIBLE EDITION - DON'T TAKE SERIOUSLY AT ALL!!!

	%		Sold T-16	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Dune	426.48		97	491		0/74	11158/11649	4.21%		2915	71.84%		21.75m
Batman	54.93		138	3812		0/280	30966/34778	10.96%		11757	17.81%		13.41m
TGM	58.05		220	3607		0/259	32324/35931	10.04%		11474	18.25%		11.18m
JWD	90.03		112	2326		0/190	22988/25314	9.19%		2915	71.84%		16.20m
Thor 4	33.75		170	6204		0/228	25396/31600	19.63%		16962	12.35%		9.79m
BP2	31.24		130	6704		1/294	30320/37024	18.11%		16800	12.46%		8.75m
Ava 2	80.35		98	2606		0/142	18732/21338	12.21%		8986	23.30%		13.66m
Wick 4	204.69		54	1023		0/88	12307/13330	7.67%		5448	38.44%		18.22m
AM3	46.91		74	4464		0/239	28513/32977	13.54%		10475	19.99%		8.21m
GOTG3	60.21		45	3478		0/203	25617/29095	11.95%		10750	19.48%		10.54m
Fast X	231.13		36	906		0/178	26804/27710	3.27%		4122	50.80%		17.33m
Indy 5	187.63		10	1116		0/128	19125/20241	5.51%		4767	43.93%		13.51m
Oppy	205.90		44	1017		0/53	7231/8248	12.33%		10750	19.48%		21.62m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

 

Regal:     580/8152  [7.11% sold]
Matinee:    73/2761  [2.64% | 3.49% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:        648/814  [79.61% sold] [+16 tickets]
Thr:    1446/23913 [6.05% sold] [+76 tickets]
PLF:     1742/9813  [17.75% | 83.19% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Buoyed by a few (mini-)group sales at different theaters, but even so combined with the jump on Sunday perhaps starting to show signs of acceleration, even before the social media embargo lift.

 

(or random spike is random — pick your poison)

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	171	22589	24739	2150	8.69%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

56

 

T-15 Comps         UNIFORMLY TERRIBLE EDITION - DON'T TAKE SERIOUSLY AT ALL!!!

	%		Sold T-15	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Dune	395.95		52	543		0/74	11106/11649	4.66%		2915	73.76%		20.19m
Batman	54.80		111	3923		0/280	30855/34778	11.28%		11757	18.29%		13.38m
TGM	56.64		189	3796		0/259	32137/35933	10.56%		11474	18.74%		10.91m
JWD	88.66		99	2425		0/191	22947/25372	9.56%		2915	73.76%		15.96m
Thor 4	33.84		150	6354		0/228	25246/31600	20.11%		16962	12.68%		9.81m
BP2	31.48		126	6830		2/294	30194/37024	18.45%		16800	12.80%		8.81m
Ava 2	79.78		89	2695		0/142	18643/21338	12.63%		8986	23.93%		13.56m
Wick 4	197.79		64	1087		0/88	12243/13330	8.15%		5448	39.46%		17.60m
AM3	46.57		153	4617		0/238	28177/32794	14.08%		10475	20.53%		8.15m
GOTG3	60.61		69	3547		0/203	25548/29095	12.19%		10750	20.00%		10.61m
Fast X	226.79		42	948		0/178	26762/27710	3.42%		4122	52.16%		17.01m
Indy 5	183.92		53	1169		0/128	19072/20241	5.78%		4767	45.10%		13.24m
Oppy	198.34		67	1084		0/53	7164/8248	13.14%		10750	20.00%		20.83m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

 

Regal:      589/8164  [7.21% sold]
Matinee:    78/2765  [2.82% | 3.63% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:          647/814  [79.48% sold] [-1 tickets]
Thr:    1503/23925  [6.28% sold] [+57 tickets]
PLF:      1775/9825  [18.07% | 82.56% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Random spike was indeed random.
 

Next, the social media lift (2pm local time so should see a decent amount of it tomorrow, though perhaps not the full effect — if there is one)

Edited February 16 by Porthos

[vafrow]

On 2/13/2024 at 8:36 PM, vafrow said:

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-16 Thursday previews and T-12 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 373

New Sales: 21

Growth: 6.0%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 18

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 20.7

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 7/2

Early Evening: 294/9

Late Evening: 72/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 81/7

IMAX: 207/4

VIP: 75/5

4dx: 10/2

 

Comps (no EA)

1.188 of Marvels for $7.8M

 

EA shows

 

Tickets sold: 417

Showtimes/Theatres: 2

Increase: 12

Growth: 3.0%

 

I thought id do my Dune update a little early so I have more time for the final updates on MW amd OL tomorrow.

 

Better day today, helped it catch it's comp.

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-15 Thursday previews and T-11 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 388

New Sales: 15

Growth: 4.0%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 18

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 21.6

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 5/2

Early Evening: 307/9

Late Evening: 76/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 88/7

IMAX: 209/4

VIP: 83/5

4dx: 8/2

 

Comps (no EA)

1.179 of Marvels for $7.8M

 

EA shows

 

Tickets sold: 422

Showtimes/Theatres: 2

Increase: 5

Growth: 1.2%

 

Nothing special in terms of growth. However, we'll see how social reactions impact things tomorrow.

 

Some new comps are technically available (HG:BoSS, MW), but I'm going to wait at least 48 hours on those until they get past their ramp up, as it distorts quite a bit.

[vafrow]

Madame Web and One Love Thursday totals

 

Madame Web: 132 tickets sold. 25% of Wednesdays totals from Wednesday morning pull.

 

One Love: 305 tickets sold, 24% of Wednesdays total taken from Wednesday morning.

 

I think we're looking at 75% drops for both. High, but understandable.

[JustWatching]

3 minutes ago, vafrow said:

Madame Web and One Love Thursday totals

 

Madame Web: 132 tickets sold. 25% of Wednesdays totals from Wednesday morning pull.

 

One Love: 305 tickets sold, 24% of Wednesdays total taken from Wednesday morning.

 

I think we're looking at 75% drops for both. High, but understandable.

Yeah, it’s a non-holiday Thursday in February. Big drops are inevitable. Based on the Cinemascores, OL will be fine. MW on the other hand might as well call it a run now.

[vafrow]

6 hours ago, leoh said:

Theaters have the best post pandemic VDay box office with a surprising 20 million** made by new releases

OL made ~14M (it’s the 2nd biggest first day* box office for any movie released since July 2023)

Madame Web made ~6M (it is a better first day than Aquaman sequel (4.5M), Morbius (5.7M) and Blue Beetle (3.3M)  surprising enough)

 

@TheFlatLannister you seem to have nailed it regarding your latest Madame Web projection👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻

 

@vafrow please never question your own projections again, you were the first one projecting 6M+ for Madame Web and the very first one to dare to say OL could hit 14M on VDay. Well done!!!!!!

 

*previews as opposed to OD, but still it had only 3500 locations, a close number to previews for movies released in 4000+ locations.

 

**Charlie’s projection to both movies.

 

I'm very happy to see that my market was actually revealing something. I've been an outlier far too often that it's always going to be my theory when my numbers don't align.

 

Only when we saw a surge in other trackers in the end did it look like maybe this was where it was going to land.

 

The challenge I'm going to have is that OL is going to be tough to use as a comp going forward. It was only available for sale for 8 days before release. It was doubling the first couple of days and settled into 25% average growth. Not many films can hit that mark.

[TwoMisfits]

11 hours ago, leoh said:

I think you may get way closer than you think to OL VDay.

 

People forget that besides the 3500 locations capacity, OL tickets are basically only conventional screenings plus half of Dolby Cinema halls (around 80, the other ~50% is with Madame Web). Plus many of those tickets costed only 5 euros due to T mobile promotion. Then… all things considered OL might not be as big as it seems to be, although double digits is inevitable.

 

Here's the thing on the TMobile promotion.  Someone - TMobile, Atom, the studio, etc - is paying the rest of the ticket price to theaters (or at least a negotiated increased price), so the box office revenue per $5 ticket is higher than $5.

 

This is why theaters overbook for the $5 deals.

[leoh]

1 hour ago, vafrow said:

 

I'm very happy to see that my market was actually revealing something. I've been an outlier far too often that it's always going to be my theory when my numbers don't align.

 

Only when we saw a surge in other trackers in the end did it look like maybe this was where it was going to land.

 

The challenge I'm going to have is that OL is going to be tough to use as a comp going forward. It was only available for sale for 8 days before release. It was doubling the first couple of days and settled into 25% average growth. Not many films can hit that mark.

It’s a very specific movie audience since it’s boosted by a vast majority of fans. Numbers shows OL will make a fraction of VDay today. However those last 8 days can be interesting to use with other biopics, since usually they are highly boosted by fans

[JustWatching]

Took a quick look at the local Emagine, they’ve got about 60 tix sold for OL today so far. That’s a bit better than I expected for a Thursday morning. A little less than half that for MW, though most of those are PLF.

[Shawn Robbins]

Not sure it was ever reported anywhere else, but Lisa Frankenstein did $700K last Thursday according to studio sources. For comp purposes.

[Issac Newton]

$6.05M Madame Web

$14.0M Bob Marley: One Love

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[Porthos]

*casually scans social media embargo lift for Dune: Part Two*

 

 

 

Spoiler

I don't break out the "I have spoken" gif often, but got a real strong feeling about this one.

 

Might not be today, as mid-day drops can be weird on timing.  But, oh yes, a storm is coming.

 

Edited February 15 by Porthos

[vafrow]

Kung Fu Panda 4, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-22 Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 15

New Sales: na

Growth: na

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.1

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 1/2

Late Afternoon: 2/2

Early Evening: 11/5

Late Evening: 1/4

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 7/8
3D Regular: 6/5
Dolby: 2/1

 

Comps

3.75x Wonka for $13.1M

 

I thought I'd start posting KFP4. I've been tracking since launch, but it hasn't done much.

 

My only comp is Wonka, but at small numbers, it's not producing any meaningful intel. Wonka started doing a bit better around T-15. I'll probably not post this one daily, but will probably still track it just to fill out my data for future comps.

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-15

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
566	4996	106182	4.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

142

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

2061

*57 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-15

 

(1.526x) of Oppenheimer $16.02M 

(0.970x) of Flash $9.41M 

(2.456x) of Wonka $8.60M 

(2.252x) of Aquaman 2 $10.14M 

 

Comps AVG: $11.04M

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-14

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
566	5067	106182	4.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

71

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

2106

*45 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-14

 

(1.495x) of Oppenheimer $15.71M 

(0.952x) of Flash $9.24M 

(2.452x) of Wonka $8.58M 

(2.257x) of Aquaman 2 $10.16M 

 

Comps AVG: $10.92M

[TheFlatLannister]

8 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

$6.05M Madame Web

$14.0M Bob Marley: One Love

 

MW comp was so on point. The actual comp number was $6.03M.

OL was pretty off 

 

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Madame web is having not so bad walkups: Comp is at $6M

One love is going crazy. It's nearly tripling Madame Web in seats sold

[leoh]

UPDATE ON AMC NY THEATERS:

 

OL is dropping ~75% here, if it resembles nationwide sales, OL could end Thursday with less than 1/3 of its VDay box office.

 

Madame Web is dropping ~50%.

 

If this resemble what’s going on nationwide, both movies box office may end this Thursday surprisingly closer than we expected.

 

Here, some theaters added 30%+ shows to OL

 

 

 

Edited February 16 by leoh

[joselowe]

Wrong forum

Edited February 16 by joselowe

[jeffthehat]

On 2/9/2024 at 5:05 PM, jeffthehat said:

 

MALCO

 

Dune: Part Two

 

Day	T-Release	Sales	Seats	Shows	Growth
Thu	-20	603	9684	54	+1.3%
Fri	-21	939	22401	129	+6.0%
Sat	-22	862	24240	138	+2.4%

 

Thursday Comp

1.18x The Marvels T-20 (10 theaters) = $7.78m

 

 

 

MALCO

 

Dune: Part Two

Day	T-Release	Sales	Seats	Shows	Growth
Thu	-14	730	9684	54	+21.1%
Fri	-15	1086	22401	129	+15.7%

 

Thursday Comp

1.36x The Marvels T-14 (10 theaters) = $9.00m

[abracadabra1998]

On 2/11/2024 at 12:44 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 (T-25):

Day: T-25	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	66	21	47	9739	0.48

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		4	0	8.51
MTC1:		38	16	80.85
Marcus:		4	0	8.51
Alamo:		5	5	10.64
Other chains:		0	0	0

 

Comps:

0.51x Wonka: $1.79 Million

0.82x Wish (w/ EA): $1.9 Million

0.26x Trolls Band Together (w/ EA): $630k*

 

*Trolls EA absolutely exploded here, considering taking it off this comps list after today until past its EA date and then just comparing it with THU previews

 

Average: $1.44 Million

 

Trolls is bringing it down a bit but even so, not great 😕 

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 (T-21):

Day: T-21	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	72	11	58	10441	0.56

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		4	0	6.9
MTC1:		43	5	74.14
Marcus:		4	0	6.9
Alamo:		5	0	8.62
Other chains:		6	6	10.34

 

Comps:

0.48x Wonka: $1.69 Million

0.62x Wish (w/ EA): $1.43 Million

0.54x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $1.66 Million

 

Average: $1.59 Million

 

No meaningful Super Bowl bump which is what I was looking for