The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[emoviefan]

5 minutes ago, dallas said:

Ok this is really weird but Ghostbusters is off to an amazing start in my area. It's sold way more than Dune 2 did at the same point. I'll see how it increases in the coming days but this is a really great sign so far. 

I'm starting to think Ghostbusters Afterlife was more well liked than people think. Of course as Dune has just proved  it could be burning through the fanbase and fall off at the end. 

[Unfitclock]

@dallas Kung fu panda is an animated film why would it only have a 10x previews to weekend multipliers when usually they do around 20 or so

[leoh]

1 hour ago, dallas said:

Ok this is really weird but Ghostbusters is off to an amazing start in my area. It's sold way more than Dune 2 did at the same point. I'll see how it increases in the coming days but this is a really great sign so far. 

It’s doing well in NY AMC theaters as well, some theaters have PLF formats with over 50% seats already sold for Ghostbusters within the first 12 hours. @Porthos has also seen this good start in pre sales as well. 
 

 

Edited March 1 by leoh

[lorddemaxus]

4 minutes ago, Unfitclock said:

@dallas Kung fu panda is an animated film why would it only have a 10x previews to weekend multipliers when usually they do around 20 or so

Animated movies do not usually have a 20x IM.

[Unfitclock]

@lorddemaxus trolls and the bad guys did

[Bob Train]

1 minute ago, Unfitclock said:

@dallas Kung fu panda is an animated film why would it only have a 10x previews to weekend multipliers when usually they do around 20 or so

Looking at some potential comparisons (excluding Summer and Holiday releases because those usually have better walkups on THU)

 

-Trolls: 23.07x IM (had EA burn off demand though)

-Paw Patrol: didn't have previews in US, had them in CAN, but were not reported

-Lyle Lyle Crocodile: 19.83x

-The Bad Guys: 28.68x

 

I don't think KFP4 will go as high an IM any of these as it will probably have larger previews than any.

[Unfitclock]

@Bob Train probably but 10x does seem love I think sonic did 13-14x something like that sounds right

[Bob Train]

2 minutes ago, Unfitclock said:

@Bob Train probably but 10x does seem love I think sonic did 13-14x something like that sounds right

Hadn't though of that one, but Sonic had 11.45x which seems possible although I think a video game adaptation would have more fan rush than KFP.

[lorddemaxus]

3 minutes ago, Unfitclock said:

@lorddemaxus trolls and the bad guys did

Trolls 3 had early screenings a couple weeks before it came out that I believe they didn't add to the preview gross (someone could double check). But even then 2 out of at least a dozen isn't much.

[abracadabra1998]

Minneapolis St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire (Day 1, 10:15 PM Count, T-21):

Day: T-21	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	90	173	173	16847	1.03

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		134	134	77.46
MTC1:		103	103	59.54
Marcus:		29	29	16.76
Alamo:		18	18	10.4
Other chains:		23	23	13.29

 

Day 1 Comps:

0.9x Hunger Games BoSS: $5.18 Million

 

2.34x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $10.52 Million

0.38x The Marvels: $2.49 Million

 

Average: $6.06 Million

 

T-21 Comps:

1.6x Haunted Mansion: $4.97 Million

1.44x Wonka: $5.05 Million

0.88x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $3.95 Million

 

Average: $4.66 Million

 

Honestly? Yeah, I am really impressed with these Day 1 sales. Def a good start! Not concentrated in MTC1 either right from the start is also a great sign. We shall see where it goes from here.

[dallas]

1 minute ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Minneapolis St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire (Day 1, 10:15 PM Count, T-21):

Day: T-21	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	90	173	173	16847	1.03

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		134	134	77.46
MTC1:		103	103	59.54
Marcus:		29	29	16.76
Alamo:		18	18	10.4
Other chains:		23	23	13.29

 

Day 1 Comps:

0.9x Hunger Games BoSS: $5.18 Million

 

2.34x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $10.52 Million

0.38x The Marvels: $2.49 Million

 

Average: $6.06 Million

 

T-21 Comps:

1.6x Haunted Mansion: $4.97 Million

1.44x Wonka: $5.05 Million

0.88x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $3.95 Million

 

Average: $4.66 Million

 

Honestly? Yeah, I am really impressed with these Day 1 sales. Def a good start! Not concentrated in MTC1 either right from the start is also a great sign. We shall see where it goes from here.

Glad to see I'm not the only one seeing really solid numbers. This might actually do pretty well! 

[JimmyB]

Ghostbusters has a big fanbase. Had to go back because for some reason I remember people being surprised by the day 1 sales of Afterlife.  Keysersoze called it's opening correctly first day of sales

 

Ghostbusters Afterlife MTC1

Previews(T-17) - 10849/337977 190041.99 1599 shows

Friday(T-18) - 6398/515675 106157.10 2388 shows

 

Not bad at all. Definitely see it opening above 40m as I posted earlier. Let us see how things move for this. Nostalgia FTW.

Edited November 2, 2021 by keysersoze123

 

This wont be frontloaded when its comes to its IM. So it needs 4m to hit 40m. For that it needs 75K in MTC1. I cant see it missing from here. Let us see how things go rest of its Presales. 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 1 by JimmyB

[Eric Lasagna]

Quorum Updates

Immaculate T-22: 22.98%

The Crow T-99: 26.56%

The Bikeriders T-113: 16.4%

Borderlands T-162: 25.97%

Smile 2 T-232: 22.02%

 

Dune: Part Two T-1: 60.22% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 90% chance of 30M, 85% chance of 40M, 75% chance of 50M, 65% chance of 60M, 50% chance of 70M, 35% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 86% chance of 60M, 43% chance of 70M, 29% chance of 100M

 

Cabrini T-8: 19.56% Awareness

Final Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

 

Imaginary T-8: 38.33% Awareness

Final Awareness: 38% chance of 10M, 6% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 45% chance of 10M, 9% chance of 20M

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 T-8: 66.96% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 90% chance of 30M, 85% chance of 40M, 75% chance of 50M, 65% chance of 60M, 50% chance of 70M, 35% chance of 100M

Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 50M, 75% chance of 70M, 50% chance of 100M

 

The Fall Guy T-64: 33.72% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 96% chance of 10M, 74% chance of 20M, 52% chance of 30M, 17% chance of 40M

Medium Awareness: 89% chance of 10M, 67% chance of 20M, 55% chance of 30M, 11% chance of 40M

[whatsupdoc]

The Quorum

6-Weeks out Film Tracking Report

 

DUNE: PART 2: $70M - $79M (UP from last week)

KUNG FU PANDA 4: $50M - $57M (FLAT)

IMAGINARY: $18M - $22M (UP)

ARTHUR THE KING: $11M - $14M (DOWN)

LOVE LIES BLEEDING: $1M - $3M (FLAT)

GHOSTBUSTERS: FROZEN EMPIRE: $50M - $57M (FLAT)

IMMACULATE: $7M - $8M (FLAT)

GODZILLA X KONG: THE NEW EMPIRE: $54M - $61M (UP)

THE FIRST OMEN: $16M - $19M (FLAT)

MONKEY MAN: $9-$11 (UP)

CIVIL WAR: $9M - $11M (NEW)

 

See Full Reports Here: https://thequorum.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/6WOFTR-03.01.24.pdf

https://thequorum.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Long-Lead-Film-Tracking-Grid-3.1.24.pdf

 

[misterpepp]

Immaculate on sale March 7

[charlie Jatinder]

3 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Looks like 10.5K final. As everywhere, comps are dropping, even Oppy one despite Oppy having no space for walkups that day. 

Dune 2 MiniTC2 Final

 

Thursday - 10525/58105 (231 showings)

 

Comps

0.86x Oppy - $9.05M

0.45x Avatar 2 - $7.65M

 

1.52x Dune 1 (limited comp) - $7.75M (Adjusted for inflation $8.3M)

 

Normally these sales would mean $6.5M previews but I am underindexing for it. Dune comp is also meh but I guess since that is just from the top cinemas of chain, the growth may be less. It may be higher in smaller cinemas. 

 

Oppy is best comp though Canada may be bit better than Oppy but then Oppy was held back by capacity constraints. I guess $9M may be it.

Edited March 1 by charlie Jatinder

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 125368/701741 2333105.70 3942 shows +13810

Friday - 154760/1157762 2825004.46 6506 shows +20014

Saturday - 164927/1206487 2881342.67 6794 shows +22541 

 

Another meh day. its targeting around 9ish for thursday at this point. Let us see how walkups go as there are no capacity constraints. 

Dune 2 MTC1

Previews Final - 159901/703588 2888378.49 3963 shows +34533

Friday - 188677/1160663 3378473.19 6542 shows +33917

Saturday - 193147/1206254 3331495.73 6796 shows +29220

 

Meh finish. In fact this has to be among the most disappointing PS finish though if you had told me before start of presales of this number I would take it. ~9m previews only bcos this will have record breaking ATP driven mostly by Imax and PLF. Charlie has the right range for OW at this point. Let us see how walkups go over the weekend. 

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, JimmyB said:

Ghostbusters has a big fanbase. Had to go back because for some reason I remember people being surprised by the day 1 sales of Afterlife.  Keysersoze called it's opening correctly first day of sales

 

Ghostbusters Afterlife MTC1

Previews(T-17) - 10849/337977 190041.99 1599 shows

Friday(T-18) - 6398/515675 106157.10 2388 shows

 

Not bad at all. Definitely see it opening above 40m as I posted earlier. Let us see how things move for this. Nostalgia FTW.

 

 

This wont be frontloaded when its comes to its IM. So it needs 4m to hit 40m. For that it needs 75K in MTC1. I cant see it missing from here. Let us see how things go rest of its Presales. 

 

 

 

 

I dont even remember tracking the movie 

 

It was insanely backloaded as well looking at IM from 4.5m previews. Previews itself finished at 79423/465102 1260371.31 after almost selling 11k tickets in OD. 

 

So what is expected of the sequel. I dont think IM will be as good as previous movie. But it should have a good OW. I am expecting 45m at this point. 

 

Edit: 1st number

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire MTC1 previews(T-21) - 11909/519957 212087.11 2641 shows

 

Bigger release already from OD of presales than how many shows afterlife had at the end. But sales is just 10% higher. Let us see how it goes as it has another 4 days of presales. 

Edited March 1 by keysersoze123

[leoh]

2 hours ago, whatsupdoc said:

The Quorum

6-Weeks out Film Tracking Report

 

DUNE: PART 2: $70M - $79M (UP from last week)

KUNG FU PANDA 4: $50M - $57M (FLAT)

IMAGINARY: $18M - $22M (UP)

ARTHUR THE KING: $11M - $14M (DOWN)

LOVE LIES BLEEDING: $1M - $3M (FLAT)

GHOSTBUSTERS: FROZEN EMPIRE: $50M - $57M (FLAT)

IMMACULATE: $7M - $8M (FLAT)

GODZILLA X KONG: THE NEW EMPIRE: $54M - $61M (UP)

THE FIRST OMEN: $16M - $19M (FLAT)

MONKEY MAN: $9-$11 (UP)

CIVIL WAR: $9M - $11M (NEW)

 

See Full Reports Here: https://thequorum.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/6WOFTR-03.01.24.pdf

https://thequorum.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Long-Lead-Film-Tracking-Grid-3.1.24.pdf

 

I really like Quorum but I have given up understanding it lol I mean GB increases in every single category, has a 4x a jump in unaided awareness, but it’s flat. GxK is lower in every single category compared to GB, both are considered part of same group, GxK has zero growth in unaided awareness, but it’s up. Lol

 

Of course you’re doing this for years now, I’m not disputing anything. I’m just giving examples of things that make me feel I’ll just never understand it lol

Edited March 1 by leoh

[TheFlatLannister]

On 2/5/2024 at 10:32 AM, TheFlatLannister said:

Yes, from previews pace I would say front loaded is pretty possible. Shawn, M37, and Legion have already baked this fact into their possible IM for the weekend 

I feel like this statement is extremely relevant right now

 

This is the final count from Miami walkups tonight. Argylle and Night Swim are terrible comps, but I have nothing else. Dune kind of fell off drastically for late night showings. Not great. 

 

	Night swim	Argylle	Dune 2
10:00 PM	245	87	487
9:00 PM	334	238	943
8:00 PM	343	554	2100
7:00 PM	759	731	3108
6:00 PM	764	869	3947
5:00 PM
Total seats sold	2445	2479	10585