The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TwoMisfits]

8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Kung Fu Panda 4 MTC1

Previews(T-2) - 22161/455754 331982.79 3137 shows +3581

Friday - 35874/792963 532176.58 5336 shows +8200

 

Weird that Tuesday growth was less than yesterday. Friday also went up pitifully(I expected 10K). Let us see where things are tomorrow. Now I am thinking 55K finish which mean be around ~3m previews (it will actually be lower but estimated higher).

 

Edit: Elemental comps put it at ~3.1m. its overall 28% ahead but daily pace is tad under 10% above that and so the comps will go down. 

 

End of the free ticket promo happened at 7pm Monday, so Tuesday sales had to live without it...

Edited March 6 by TwoMisfits

[el sid]

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, counted yesterday for Friday, March 22. 17 days left.

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 41 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 17 (9 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 4 (12 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 4 (6 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 0 (9 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 44 (8 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 48 (13 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 161.

Comps (both films counted for Friday; I will have more comps when the release date comes closer): Uncharted had 276 sold tickets with 16 days left
and G: A had 457 sold tickets with 5 days left = 34% at the moment with 12 days left for Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire to come closer or overtake.

Again several fake sell-outs for Thursday were reported.
Still doing not great but ok in my theaters.

Kung Fu Panda 4 in a few hours.

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Cabrini	T-2	Jax	5	9	2	104	866	12.01%
		Phx	6	13	3	57	1,171	4.87%
		Ral	7	12	3	51	1,340	3.81%
	Total		18	34	8	212	3,377	6.28%
Imaginary	T-2	Jax	5	15	1	29	1,371	2.12%
		Phx	5	10	2	29	1,317	2.20%
		Ral	7	13	11	33	1,109	2.98%
	Total		17	38	14	91	3,797	2.40%
Kung Fu Panda 4	T-2	Jax	5	48	21	147	5,315	2.77%
		Phx	6	46	51	231	6,226	3.71%
		Ral	8	45	29	214	5,095	4.20%
	Total		19	139	101	592	16,636	3.56%

 

Kung Fu Panda T-2 comps

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - .646x (2m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .408x (2.55m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .379x (2.12m)

 - Lightyear (Total) - .564x (3.1m)

 - Elemental - 1.62x (3.88m)

 - Super Pets - 2.79x (6.14m)

 - Minions 2 - .509x (5.48m)

 - Boss Baby 2 - 4.08x (5.35m)

 - Spider-verse 2 - .147x (2.55m)

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Kung Fu Panda 4	65.36%	25.14%	-	20.57%
Haunted Mansion	57.83%	30.12%	20.44%	20.66%
Sonic 2 (Total)	62.05%	24.55%	22.04%	22.02%
Turtles Total	51.95%	31.71%	20.80%	4.41%
Lightyear Total	73.55%	44.63%	-	26.66%
Elemental	55.08%	-	-	25.77%
Super Pets	76.67%	40.83%	43.66%	21.84%
Minions 2	-	-	-	42.75%
Boss Baby 2	202.08%	45.83%	84.62%	45.00%

 

Growth rates over three day periods.  Tracking pretty closely with Sonic 2 so far, we'll see if that keeps up.  Hoping for a good increase over the next few days, but to me it's looking like it's headed for <3m at this pace...

 

Growth model forecast - 3.61m (not believing in this for now)

 

Imaginary T-2 comps

 - Insidious 5 - .224x (1.12m)

 - Escape Room 2 - .892x (1.07m)

 - Invitation - 1.358x (1.05m)

 - Old - .689x (1.03m)

 - Boogeyman - .82x (820k)

 

I'm only looking at PG-13 comps as they tend to perform differently than R, especially for horror.  Yesterday was worse than every comp though, so not a great sign.

 

Growth model forecast - 991k

 

Cabrini T-2 comps

 - Sound of Freedom - .087x (452k)

 - Left Behind - .671x (410k)

 - I Heard the Bells - .474x (366k)

 - Jesus Revolution - .136x (450k)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Cabrini	T-1	Jax	5	11	5	109	958	11.38%
		Phx	6	16	6	63	1,335	4.72%
		Ral	7	15	1	52	1,560	3.33%
	Total		18	42	12	224	3,853	5.81%
Imaginary	T-1	Jax	5	15	11	40	1,371	2.92%
		Phx	6	12	3	32	1,461	2.19%
		Ral	7	15	7	40	1,219	3.28%
	Total		18	42	21	112	4,051	2.76%
Kung Fu Panda 4	T-1	Jax	5	58	42	189	5,947	3.18%
		Phx	6	66	52	283	9,552	2.96%
		Ral	8	67	40	254	7,425	3.42%
	Total		19	191	134	726	22,924	3.17%

 

Kung Fu Panda T-1 comps

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - .653x (2.03m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .386x (2.41m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .406x (2.28m)

 - Lightyear (Total) - .528x (2.9m)

 - Elemental - 1.513x (3.63m)

 - Super Pets - 2.45x (5.4m)

 - Minions 2 - .422x (4.5m)

 - Boss Baby 2 - 4.15x (5.43m)

 - Spider-verse 2 - .144x (2.51m)

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Kung Fu Panda 4	78.82%	28.82%	6.92%	22.64%
Haunted Mansion Total	71.45%	32.41%	23.74%	21.16%
Sonic 2 (Total)	84.51%	28.82%	22.73%	29.61%
Turtles Total	45.92%	34.64%	25.25%	14.34%
Lightyear Total	-	-	-	30.95%
Elemental	86.77%	-	-	31.15%
Super Pets	124.24%	43.18%	42.67%	39.62%
Minions 2	180.29%	27.52%	-	48.11%
Boss Baby 2	139.73%	54.79%	87.88%	20.69%

 

Behind Sonic yesterday and seems to be lagging a bit.  Feeling more comfortable in the 3m range as we get closer and could even fail to reach that.

 

Growth model forecast - 3.53m (still not seeing this in the numbers)

 

Imaginary T-1 comps

 - Insidious 5 - .204x (1.02m)

 - Escape Room 2 - .747x (896k)

 - Invitation - 1.07x (827k)

 - Old - .554x (832k)

 - Boogeyman - 1x (1m)

 

Another bad day...

 

Growth model forecast - 881k

 

Cabrini T-1 comps

 - Sound of Freedom - .08x (415k)

 - Left Behind - .541x (330k)

 - I Heard the Bells - .499x (385k)

 - Jesus Revolution - .131x (433k)

 

Forecast - 336k

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Ghostbusters: FE	T-16	Jax	5	56	3	83	8,681	0.96%
		Phx	6	50	1	94	8,790	1.07%
		Ral	8	37	7	106	5,354	1.98%
	Total		19	143	11	283	22,825	1.24%

 

T-16 comps

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - 1.194x (3.7m)

 - Shazam 2 - .767x (2.61m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.215x (4.98m)

 - NTTD (Total) - .708x (4.46m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .695x (3.89m)

 - MI:7 (Total) - .445x (3.92m)

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife (Total) - 1.215 (5.47m) (First day of sales)

 

Forecast - 4.22m

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Ghostbusters: FE	T-15	Jax	5	56	5	88	8,681	1.01%
		Phx	6	50	6	100	8,790	1.14%
		Ral	8	37	3	109	5,354	2.04%
	Total		19	143	14	297	22,825	1.30%

 

T-15 comps

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - 1.188x (3.68m)

 - Shazam 2 - .786x (2.67m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.253x (5.14m)

 - NTTD (Total) - .68x (4.28m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .669x (3.75m)

 - MI:7 (Total) - .449x (3.95m)

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife (Total) - 1.02 (4.59m)

 

Forecast - 4.07m

[vafrow]

17 hours ago, vafrow said:

To put some of the current Dune hype in context, one of the subreddits I check in on is r/Cineplex, and any time there's a big film, you'll almost always see people asking in that sub why there aren't any showtimes beyond Thursday. The regulars there get annoyed with answering the question, especially with pinned posts explaining the showtime schedule.

 

This week has been relentless with people inquiring about Dune. 

 

Well, the flagship theatre downtown Toronto just put up showtimes, probably an hour ago max. The early evening show is 70% sold out. Late evening probably 30-40%. Saturday is seeing similar. I expect things to be sold out by morning. 

 

This happened with Oppenheimer, and it didn't let up for weeks.

 

Following up on this, sales continued on these showings, but not quite sellout. People aren't willing to watch in a non ideal seat. Front rows and wings are still available.

 

It's perfectly reasonable, but Oppenheimer, for the 70mm locations were fully sold out. And afternoon timings are still pretty open.

 

It's still going to drive toward a strong weekend hold, but it's a little shy of the Oppenheimer hysteria.

[ando]

I would prefer KFP4 closer to 45 just for the sake of an exciting contest between it and Dune for the weekend. Haven't had one of those in a long time. 

[TheFlatLannister]

14 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	125	99	538	15906	3.38

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		47	16	8.74
MTC1:		278	28	51.67
Marcus:		83	30	15.43
Alamo:		34	6	6.32
Other chains:		143	35	26.58

 

Comps:

1.05x Wonka: $3.69 Million

1.59x Wish (TUE): $2.87 Million

1.19x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $3.68 Million

2.31x Migration: $3.46 Million

2.72x Trolls (THU): $3.53 Million

 

Average: $3.45 Million

 

Funky stuff at one of my theaters, with a suspect drop in tickets there, but seems legit for now so I'll keep it. All my comps circling around 3.5 and the average spitting out that exact number seems almost too true to be perfect, but it's such a nice round number that's what I'll go with for now... 

I've noticed that in Orlando as well. Tickets dropped by over 100+ last week

[Jerri Blank-Diggler]

Deadline is on board the $50 M+ train for KFP4.....

 

-        KF Panda 4 - 3900 theaters, “bound to see…domestic opening at $50M+”

-        Dune “expected around $39M”

-        Imaginary - 3000 theaters, “shot at opening to $10-14 M”

-        Cabrini - 2500 theaters, “mid-single digits to $10 M opening”

 

‘Kung Fu Panda 4’ To Soar At Weekend Box Office With $50M+; ‘Dune: Part Two’ Crossing $100M Today – Preview

https://deadline.com/2024/03/kung-fu-panda-4-dune-part-two-box-office-preview-1235846878/

 

Edited March 6 by Jerri Blank-Diggler

[Wafflecakes]

Not sure what to make of the KFP4 apparent overperformance. With the gap between the last two installments, and the fact that before that grosses (in the US) were going down with each entry, it seems weird to have the pop up. I haven't heard that much chatter about it.

 

That said, I love the first 3 films so I am not complaining. I just don't think social media by itself can explain it.

[keysersoze123]

On 3/4/2024 at 2:54 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Just wanted to see how Dune is looking for 2nd weekend
Dune 2 MTC1

Day 8(Friday) - 33702/504655 686411.52 2440 shows

Day 9(Saturday) - 50182/539227 945246.98 2636 shows

 

Its way ahead of Panda for the days and of course ATP for Dune 2 is way higher as well.

Dune 2 MTC1

Day 8(Friday) - 57379/753179 1120101.37 4399 shows

Day 9(Saturday) - 79744/787133 1449116.54 4595 shows

 

Friday is up like 110% from Panda while saturday is around 150% higher than Panda. Dont know how Panda can beat Dune this weekend. It should be interesting. 

[vafrow]

I've been showing strong numbers in my tracks, but I agree with others that $50M seems out of reach.

 

I don't feel this film has enough to compel people to see it this weekend once the good showtimes run out. And you need something like that to keep momentum going.

 

It's going to leg out well IMO. Particularly since different regions will have different spring break periods, and I can see lots of parents holding this film for when they need it.

[TheFlatLannister]

22 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 MTC1

Day 8(Friday) - 57379/753179 1120101.37 4399 shows

Day 9(Saturday) - 79744/787133 1449116.54 4595 shows

 

Friday is up like 110% from Panda while saturday is around 150% higher than Panda. Dont know how Panda can beat Dune this weekend. It should be interesting. 

A family film vs a Cinephile film 

 

Presales won’t tell the whole story I think 

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, TheFlatLannister said:

A family film vs a Cinephile film 

 

Presales won’t tell the whole story I think 

Dune had strong walkups over the weekend. Normally I would say you are right but movies in 2nd weekend tend to be slightly less presales driven. We will see for sure. 

[Shawn Robbins]

Going with a $44-54m range on KFP4. Pinpointing $48.3m. Dune at $43.8m.

 

I tend to agree $50m might be on the higher end of likely outcomes... buuuut, it's not overly common for a studio (especially Universal) to come out with a number and overshoot by much. They're seeing something, and that's worth valuing on some level.

 

The age of the franchise has always been a little bit of a concern to me, like others. On the other hand, families haven't had anything new to take their kids to since Wonka and Migration over two months ago, animated comedies have a big reach with parents and kids (let us not forget the magic Universal worked with Rise of Gru, the fifth in a franchise), and Jack Black is one of the few actors even some kids today might recognize -- especially with his social media presence in the wake of Mario last year, which could be helping to pump up on awareness and interest on KFP4.

 

Lots of theories to toss around, and I do wonder why Universal didn't play it a little safer and say $40m+ to the trades.

 

But, even a $2.5M+ Thursday could still net $45-50m this weekend. Only 8% of schools are out on Friday, so that should lend to a big Fri-to-Sat multiplier, while the figure jumps to 20%+ for Monday (which will moderately help Sunday's drop).

 

Either way, two films over $40m in the same weekend is going to be a sight for sore eyes.

[Eric Burnett]

Quorum Updates

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire T-23: 52.93% Awareness

Abigail T-44: 22.76%

Furiosa T-79: 26.84%

Blink Twice T-170: 12.75%

Speak No Evil T-191: 24.58%

 

Cabrini T-2: 21.83% Awareness

Final Awareness: 17% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

 

Imaginary T-2: 41.75% Awareness

Final Awareness: 85% chance of 10M, 49% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 55% chance of 20M

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 T-2: 68.42% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 90% chance of 30M, 86% chance of 40M, 76% chance of 50M, 67% chance of 60M, 52% chance of 70M, 33% chance of 100M

Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 50M, 75% chance of 70M, 50% chance of 100M

 

Monkey Man T-30: 27.27% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 54% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 34% chance of 10M, 7% chance of 20M

 

Civil War T-37: 27.63% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 54% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 34% chance of 10M, 7% chance of 20M

[vafrow]

27 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 MTC1

Day 8(Friday) - 57379/753179 1120101.37 4399 shows

Day 9(Saturday) - 79744/787133 1449116.54 4595 shows

 

Friday is up like 110% from Panda while saturday is around 150% higher than Panda. Dont know how Panda can beat Dune this weekend. It should be interesting. 

 

These are mind scrambling numbers that I'm struggling to make sense of. I poked around some theatres to see Friday sales around me and it's really hit or miss on whether Panda or Dune is doing better. The presence of an IMAX screen tilts towards Dune, but it's not limited to those screens. But the way to cut through small variances is a big sample like MTC1.l so we should be putting weight on these numbers.

 

I feel through all the tracking, we have a pretty solid floor for KFP4. A $3.5M Thursday and 10x multiple is about the worst case. Momentum suggests higher, but lets stay conservative. So for MTC1 to be much stronger at this stage seems like a pretty strong signal that something is brewing this weekend. Let's say we accept that MTC1 probably skews more towards Dune type pics, and Panda is more prone to walk ups (I'm unsure of either of those. It seems to be the case, but I'm open to correction).

 

I don't know how that gap gets bridged. The Saturday number in particular. Especially as it's two extremes with ATP, that Panda needs to overtake just to stay even.

 

I think we'll have something interesting to follow this weekend.

 

 

[Brainbug]

34 minutes ago, Shawn Robbins said:

Either way, two films over $40m in the same weekend is going to be a sight for sore eyes.

 

You remember when those kind of numbers were quite common and not the rare exception?

 

I do too ...

 

...

[Grand Cine]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 MTC1

Day 8(Friday) - 57379/753179 1120101.37 4399 shows

Day 9(Saturday) - 79744/787133 1449116.54 4595 shows

 

Friday is up like 110% from Panda while saturday is around 150% higher than Panda. Dont know how Panda can beat Dune this weekend. It should be interesting. 

After this the difference between the two will fall ( with tha fact that animation movies have better walkups than other) but either KFP is low or Dune is already very high

[vafrow]

17 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

You remember when those kind of numbers were quite common and not the rare exception?

 

I do too ...

 

...

 

I know we all yearn for better days after the way things have been, but two $40M films in March has always been a rare occurrence.

[jeffthehat]

23 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

Indiana

3/8 openers T-2

Movie	Sales	Seats	Shows	Growth
Kung Fu Panda 4	588	22520	148	+24.3%
Cabrini	235	3965	39	+6.3%
Imaginary	136	4395	48	+10.6%

Kung Fu Panda 4 Comps

0.24x One Love Wed T-2 = $3.3m

0.44x Madame Web Wed T-2 = $3.0m

5.44x Lisa Frankenstein T-2 = $3.3m

 

AVG = $3.2m

---

Good jump for KFP4

Indiana

3/8 openers T-1

Movie	Sales	Seats	Shows	Growth
Kung Fu Panda 4	809	24973	172	+37.5%
Cabrini	270	3965	39	+14.9%
Imaginary	157	4395	48	+15.4%

Kung Fu Panda 4 Comps

0.24x One Love Wed T-1 = $3.4m

0.48x Madame Web Wed T-1 = $2.9m

6.13x Lisa Frankenstein T-1 = $3.7m

 

AVG = $3.3m

---

Think I messed up a bit on math yesterday. Still looks like good growth for KP4 here, but missing family movies as comps. Wouldn't read into these much, but here are implied comps for the other two openers using the KFP4 average and sales ratio:

 

Cabrini = $1.1m

Imaginary = $640k