The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[JonathanMB]

Worth noting that any weekend gross above $12M for Abigail would give it the best opening for a horror movie since Five Nights at Freddy's, and the best opening for an original horror film since M3GAN 15 whole months ago. So these numbers are sounding pretty solid to me.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 4/11/2024 at 8:55 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Fall Guy	T-21	Jax	5	34	-2	12	5,746	0.21%
		Phx	6	19	-3	32	3,556	0.90%
		Ral	8	34	0	36	5,150	0.70%
	Total		19	87	-5	80	14,452	0.55%
Fall Guy (EA)	T-20	Jax	5	10	4	24	2,007	1.20%
		Phx	1	2	0	13	618	2.10%
		Ral	2	2	0	11	412	2.67%
	Total		8	14	4	48	3,037	1.58%

 

Fall Guy (Total) T-21 adjusted comps

 - F9 - .471x (3.54m)

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .255x (2.24m)

 - John Wick 4 - .366x (3.25m)

 - Monkey Man - 3.368x (5.56m)

 - Glass Onion - .593x (1.43m)

 

Size adjusted average - 3.38m

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Fall Guy	T-14	Jax	6	36	2	13	6,208	0.21%
		Phx	6	19	1	36	3,556	1.01%
		Ral	8	32	2	39	4,583	0.85%
	Total		20	87	5	88	14,347	0.61%
Fall Guy (EA)	T-13	Jax	5	10	0	27	2,007	1.35%
		Phx	1	2	0	13	618	2.10%
		Ral	2	2	2	13	412	3.16%
	Total		8	14	2	53	3,037	1.75%
Tarot	T-14	Jax	5	21	0	3	1,752	0.17%
		Phx	6	16	2	6	2,534	0.24%
		Ral	6	17	0	7	2,323	0.30%
	Total		17	54	2	16	6,609	0.24%

 

Fall Guy (Total) T-14 adjusted comps

 - Monkey Man - 2.94x (4.85m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 2.203x (6.18m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - 1.044x (4.92m)

 - Cocaine Bear - 1.237x (2.92m)

 - Civil War - 1.74x (5.05m)

 

Size adjusted average - 3.94m

 

I got rid of the sequels and went to more IP films.  I'm not saying this is going to earn 5m+ in total previews, but we shouldn't get all doom and gloom yet.

 

Tarot T-14 adjusted comps

 - Last Voyage - 1.067x (800k)

 - M3GAN - .533x (1.47m)

 - Black Phone - .219x (583k)

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 4/11/2024 at 8:59 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Kingdom of Apes	T-28	Jax	5	47	4	30	8,044	0.37%
		Phx	5	34	3	49	7,467	0.66%
		Ral	7	40	3	40	6,071	0.66%
	Total		17	121	10	119	21,582	0.55%
Kingdom of Apes (EA)	T-27	Jax	5	9	11	59	1,802	3.27%
		Phx	1	2	0	20	618	3.24%
		Ral	2	2	5	29	412	7.04%
	Total		8	13	16	108	2,832	3.81%

 

T-28 (Total) adjusted comps

 - Nope - 1.305x (8.55m)

 - Oppenheimer - .423x (4.35m)

 - Fall Guys (Total) - 2.225x

 - Scream VI - 1.046x (6.32m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Kingdom of Apes	T-21	Jax	5	47	2	53	8,044	0.66%
		Phx	6	40	1	68	7,757	0.88%
		Ral	8	42	0	51	6,233	0.82%
	Total		19	129	3	172	22,034	0.78%
Kingdom of Apes (EA)	T-20	Jax	5	9	1	77	1,802	4.27%
		Phx	1	2	0	23	618	3.72%
		Ral	2	2	0	38	412	9.22%
	Total		8	13	1	138	2,832	4.87%

 

T-21 (Total) adjusted comps

 - Fall Guy (Total) - 2.422x

 - M:I 7 Total - .618x (5.43m)

 - F9 - 1.14x (8.58m)

 - Shazam 2 - 1.12x (3.81m)

 - Eternals - .315x (3.11m)

 

[emoviefan]

1 hour ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Fall Guy	T-14	Jax	6	36	2	13	6,208	0.21%
		Phx	6	19	1	36	3,556	1.01%
		Ral	8	32	2	39	4,583	0.85%
	Total		20	87	5	88	14,347	0.61%
Fall Guy (EA)	T-13	Jax	5	10	0	27	2,007	1.35%
		Phx	1	2	0	13	618	2.10%
		Ral	2	2	2	13	412	3.16%
	Total		8	14	2	53	3,037	1.75%
Tarot	T-14	Jax	5	21	0	3	1,752	0.17%
		Phx	6	16	2	6	2,534	0.24%
		Ral	6	17	0	7	2,323	0.30%
	Total		17	54	2	16	6,609	0.24%

 

Fall Guy (Total) T-14 adjusted comps

 - Monkey Man - 2.94x (4.85m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 2.203x (6.18m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - 1.044x (4.92m)

 - Cocaine Bear - 1.237x (2.92m)

 - Civil War - 1.74x (5.05m)

 

Size adjusted average - 3.94m

 

I got rid of the sequels and went to more IP films.  I'm not saying this is going to earn 5m+ in total previews, but we shouldn't get all doom and gloom yet.

 

Tarot T-14 adjusted comps

 - Last Voyage - 1.067x (800k)

 - M3GAN - .533x (1.47m)

 - Black Phone - .219x (583k)

That Jungle Cruise Comp for Fall Guy would be the best comp I would think and hope. Emily Blunt and a Alist male costar. A PG-!3 action adventure movie with romance elements. Also Bullet Train. The others not so much..

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

Abigail - 65/7,935

 - Northman - .409x (552k)

 - Firestarter - 5.417x (2.03m)

 

Spy x Family - 196/4,503

 - Dragon Ball Z - .103x (444k)

 

Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare - 36/3,050

 - Civil War - .167x (483k)

 - Plane - .537x (336k)

 - Beast - .878x (812k)

 - Bullet Train - .149x (500k)

 - Massive Talent - .818x (683k)

Santikos Tracking

 

Previews

Abigail - 116/7,935

 - Smile - .421x (716k)

 - Firestarter - 2.481x (931k)

 - M3GAN - .154x (424k)

 

Spy x Family - 248/4,503

 - Dragon Ball Z - .029x (126k)

 - Bullet Train - .145x (487k)

 

Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare - 67/3,050

 - Monkey Man - .67x (938k)

 - Bullet Train - .145x (487k)

 - Beast - .848x (784k)

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

That Jungle Cruise Comp for Fall Guy would be the best comp I would think and hope. Emily Blunt and a Alist male costar. A PG-!3 action adventure movie with romance elements. Also Bullet Train. The others not so much..

Yeah, options aren't great yet.  Should be better comps popping up the next week.  I believe Jungle Cruise had just started sales so that comp will be going down until it levels out.

[vafrow]

I did a quick check on Abigail this morning. It's not looking great, with 14 tickets sold across my 5 theatre radius. Imaginary did 19 around the same time. That would give around a $500K comp.

[joselowe]

3 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

Last minute add...

 

Challengers will be a $5 TMobile/Atom deal next week (starting Tuesday) - plan accordingly.

 

Not the norm for their choices, but then again, it seems this movie is so "young adult/18-25" it may get a nice effect...

 

2024 TMobile Movies

Bob Marley

Ghostbusters

Challengers

I mean Zendaya is a walking ad in the sense that brands and people love her so I’m not shocked T-Mobile did this. 

[el sid]

Once again numbers from yesterday: 

 

Abigail, counted yesterday for Friday, had 223 sold tickets.

Up ok 32% since Tuesday. 

 

Comps (all films counted on Wednesday of the release week for Thursday): The Invitation (1.8M true Friday) had 167 sold tickets = 2.4M.

Prey for the Devil (2.14M) had 207 = 2.3M.

M3gan (8.95M) had 506 = 3.9M.

Demeter (1.85M), numbers in the same 6 theaters = 1.3M.

Malignant (2M first day) had 167 = 2.7M.

Candyman (7.2M) had 447 = 3.6M.

Old (5.4M) had 262 = 4.6M.

Exorcist 2 (8.9M) had 1.115 = 1.8M.

Barbarian (3.05M) had 140 = 4.85M.

Firestarter (1.2M) had 115 = 2.35M.

The First Omen (2.475M) had 152 = 3.65M.

And The Pope's Exorcist (2.65M) had 142 = 4.15M.

 

Average: 3.15M true Friday.

Funny, on Tuesday I had only 4 comps and now I have 12 but the average stayed exactly the same ;).

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[el sid]

The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare, counted today for today, had 237 sold tickets (in 7 theaters).

Up modest 17% since yesterday.

 

Comps (all 3 films counted on Thursday of the release week for Thursday): Midway (925k from previews) had 300 sold tickets = 730k.

1917 (3.25M) had 879 sold tickets in 5 theaters (it had no shows in my AMCs in Texas and NY). Ungentlemanly Warfare has in the same 5 theaters 144 sold tickets = 550k.

And Amsterdam (550k) had 289 sold tickets = 450k.

Average: 575k (without EA shows).

 

On the one hand that's a bit better than on Monday, OTOH the jump till today was really pretty small. So my guess would still be that it reaches high single digits.

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[el sid]

Abigail, counted today for today, had 351 sold tickets.

Up nice 41.5% since yesterday.

 

Comps (all films counted on Thursday for Thursday): The Invitation (775k) had 218 sold tickets = 1.25M.

M3gan (2.75M) had 782 = 1.25M.

Prey for the Devil (660k) had 164 = 1.4M.

Frankenstein (700k) had 276 = 900k.

Candyman (1.9M) had 555 = 1.2M.

The First Omen (725k) had 184 = 1.35M.

The Pope's Exorcist (850k) had 257 = 1.15M.

And Firestarter (375k) had 171 sold tickets = 750k.

Average: 1.15M.

Also exactly the same number as yesterday ;).

 

PS: It had a quite good jump till today so I could imagine that the true Friday number went a little bit up (it were 3.15M in my theaters yesterday).

[abracadabra1998]

17 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

Abigail (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	71	66	199	9517	2.09

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		44	16	22.11
MTC1:		98	28	49.25
Alamo:		31	4	15.58
Other chains:		70	34	35.18

 

Comps:

1.62x First Omen: $1.17 Million

2.19x Immaculate: $1.2 Million (17 theaters)

1.67x Imaginary: $1.21 Million (17 theaters)

1.41x Lisa Frankenstein: $990k (17 theaters)

1x Thanksgiving: $1.01 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $1.12 Million

 

Going to interrupt the doom and gloom in this thread to say this is a REALLY good update. Basically grew 50% over 24 hours. I will actually be able to give T-1 hour numbers for this one which I am excited about to see if this is just a mirage or indicative of a late jump, so I will hold off on a prediction until then

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Abigail (T-1 hour):

Day: T-1 Hour	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	71	100	289	9517	3.04

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		78	34	26.99
MTC1:		131	33	45.33
Alamo:		44	13	15.22
Other chains:		114	54	39.45

 

Comps:

1.23x Last Voyage of the Demeter: $925k (17 theaters)

0.23x Insidious Red Door: $1.16 Million (17 theaters)

 

Don't have many T-1 hour horror comps, decent final day but not really any signs of a huge late break-out (yesterday a chain had blocked off 10 seats that I assumed were tickets sold but I now know are not, so I amended that from yesterday. Also makes yesterday's update look a little worse than I had made it out to be). I'll just go with $1 Million, +/- 0.2

[katnisscinnaplex]

9 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Abigail	T-0	Jax	5	26	39	74	3,308	2.24%
		Phx	7	21	33	82	3,379	2.43%
		Ral	8	24	10	44	3,077	1.43%
	Total		20	71	82	200	9,764	2.05%
Spy x Family	T-0	Jax	5	17	5	96	1,788	5.37%
		Phx	6	20	20	147	4,023	3.65%
		Ral	8	22	11	108	2,087	5.17%
	Total		19	59	36	351	7,898	4.44%
Ungentlemanly	T-0	Jax	5	24	13	54	2,826	1.91%
		Phx	7	17	11	60	1,719	3.49%
		Ral	8	14	21	80	1,293	6.19%
	Total		20	55	45	194	5,838	3.32%

 

Spy x Family T-0 adjusted comps

 - Dragon Ball - .191x (842k)

 - JJK:0 - .201x (592k)

 - Demon Slayer 2 - .129x (645k)

 - One Piece - .378x (656k)

 - Suzume - .871x (592k)

 - My Hero Academia (OD) - .216x (780k)

 

Size adjusted comp - 604k

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Spy x Family	33.97%	16.41%	19.18%	11.43%
Dragon Ball	63.14%	15.45%	20.48%	26.52%
Jujutsu Kaisen: 0	44.62%	-	-	16.39%
Demon Slayer 2 (OD)	71.04%	24.29%	20.17%	24.24%
One Piece	52.80%	16.78%	12.85%	22.24%
My Hero Academia (Fri)	50.37%	-	-	21.47%

 

Pretty far behind all of the comps in growth.  I'll go with 650k for now

 

Ministry of Ungentlemanly... T-0 adjusted comps (Previews)

 - Snake Eyes - .469x (70k)

 - Equalizer 3 - .24x (747k)

 - Turtles - .171x (578k)

 - Civil War - .278x (660k)

 - Plane - 1.11x (693k)

 - Devotion - 1.07x (675k)

 - Babylon - .681x

 

Size adjusted comp - 670k

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Ungentlemanly	169.44%	33.33%	27.08%	30.20%
Snake Eyes	150.91%	42.42%	50.53%	32.69%
Equalizer 3	116.89%	32.44%	38.89%	40.70%
Turtles	111.73%	34.45%	25.57%	54.69%
Civil War	134.56%	34.90%	38.66%	37.60%
Plane	218.18%	-	-	25.00%
Devotion	135.06%	49.35%	-	79.21%
Babylon	87.50%	26.97%	17.12%	33.80%

 

Yesterday wasn't too bad, and 3-day is ahead of most of the comps.  I'll stick with 700k for now

 

Abigail T-0 adjusted comps

 - Talk to Me - .522x (650k)

 - M3GAN - .328x (902k)

 - Insidious 5 - .196x (979k)

 - Immaculate - 1.905x (1.05m)

 - Blackening - 1.6x (1.2m)

 - Firestarter - 1.351x (519k)

 - First Omen - 1.869x (1.36m)

 

Size adjusted comp - 922k

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Abigail	170.27%	45.95%	30.00%	69.49%
Talk to Me	275.49%	47.06%	42.59%	55.69%
M3GAN	-	-	-	82.63%
Insidious 5	215.12%	49.38%	41.46%	86.31%
Immaculate	238.71%	77.42%	-	50.00%
Blackening	204.88%	26.83%	-	54.32%
Firestarter	100.00%	55.41%	-	33.33%
First Omen	224.24%	33.33%	-	67.19%

 

No change here.  +69% is a good sign so hopefully the average can get up to 1m by this afternoon.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Abigail	1-Hr	Jax	5	26	56	130	3,308	3.93%
		Phx	7	21	27	109	3,379	3.23%
		Ral	8	24	42	86	3,077	2.79%
	Total		20	71	125	325	9,764	3.33%
Spy x Family	1-Hr	Jax	5	17	11	107	1,788	5.98%
		Phx	6	20	11	158	4,023	3.93%
		Ral	8	22	17	125	2,087	5.99%
	Total		19	59	39	390	7,898	4.94%
Ungentlemanly	1-Hr	Jax	5	24	46	100	2,826	3.54%
		Phx	7	17	18	78	1,719	4.54%
		Ral	8	14	44	124	1,293	9.59%
	Total		20	55	108	302	5,838	5.17%

 

Spy x Family T-1 hr adjusted comps

 - Dragon Ball - .174x (765k)

 - JJK:0 - .195x (574k)

 - Demon Slayer 2 - missed

 - One Piece - .343x (596k)

 - Suzume - .871x (592k)

 - My Hero Academia (OD) - missed

 

Size adjusted comp - 569k

Growth model forecast - 587k

 

Final prediction - 600k

 

Ministry of Ungentlemanly... T-1 hr adjusted comps (Previews)

 - Snake Eyes - .440x (535k)

 - Equalizer 3 - .197x (615k)

 - Turtles - .193x (653k)

 - Civil War - .282x (671k)

 - Plane - .974x (609k)

 - Devotion - missed

 - Babylon - .846x

All action - 549k

All R movies - 698k

All 6pm previews - 634k

All movies - 632k

 

Size adjusted comp - 581k

Growth model forecast - 802k

 

Final prediction - 650k (Excluding EA)

 

Abigail T-1 hr adjusted comps

 - Talk to Me - .505x (629k)

 - M3GAN - .293x (804k)

 - Insidious 5 - .183x (914k)

 - Immaculate - 1.776x (977k)

 - Blackening - 1.316x (987k)

 - Firestarter - 1.444x (554k)

 - First Omen - 1.484x (1.08m)

All horror - 825k

All R horror - 807k

All movies - 680k

 

Size adjusted comp - 835k

Growth model forecast - 787k

 

Final prediction - 850k

[TheFlatLannister]

On 4/15/2024 at 9:04 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

KINGDOM OF THE PLANET OF THE APES

 

 

Thursday 

 

T-24

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
496	1534	100529	1.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-24

(0.403x) of Dune 2 $3.75M

FLORIDA 

 

KINGDOM OF THE PLANET OF THE APES

 

Thursday 

 

T-21

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
499	1726	101745	1.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

84

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

3

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-21

(0.404x) of Dune 2 $3.76M

(0.891x) of Ghostbusters $4.19M

Comps average: $3.98M