The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Issac Newton]

$670K Spy x Family 

[Jerri Blank-Diggler]

ERC's $1M CLUB: THURSDAY

1. CIVIL WAR ($1.6M)

2. MINISTRY OF UNGENTLEMANLY WARFARE ($1.4M)*

3. ABIGAIL ($1M)

 

*includes add’l previews

[keysersoze123]

Ministry doing better than what I expected. I guess it did not over index despite my concern for it being not so widely release. DAJK did say that it did not release in his area. That makes me optimistic that its OW wont be that bad. Hoping it hits double digits. 

[Eric the Fall Guy]

Quorum Updates

Twisters T-92: 46.86%

Never Let Go T-162: 18.67%

 

Abigail T-1: 38.48% Awareness

Final Awareness: 39% chance of 10M, 7% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 87% chance of 10M, 62% chance of 20M

 

The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare T-1: 24.61% Awareness

Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

 

Challengers T-8: 25.92% Awareness

Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

 

Unsung Hero T-8: 17.09% Awareness

Final Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

 

Furiosa T-36: 30.17% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 81% chance of 10M, 55% chance of 20M, 35% chance of 30M, 13% chance of 40M, 10% chance of 70M, 3% chance of 90M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 30M

 

The Garfield Movie T-36: 47.44% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 96% chance of 20M, 87% chance of 30M, 61% chance of 40M, 39% chance of 50M, 35% chance of 60M

Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 67% chance of 100M

 

Inside Out 2 T-57: 51.44% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 92% chance of 40M, 85% chance of 50M, 69% chance of 60M, 61% chance of 70M, 54% chance of 90M, 46% chance of 100M

Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 50M, 33% chance of 90M

 

The Watchers T-57: 29.33% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 58% chance of 10M, 31% chance of 20M, 11% chance of 30M, 8% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 50% chance of 10M, 33% chance of 20M, 8% chance of 40M

[ChipDerby]

19 minutes ago, Eric Atreides said:

Challengers T-8: 25.92% Awareness

Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

 

 

Is Challengers going to break Quorum???

[Eric the Fall Guy]

7 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

 

Is Challengers going to break Quorum???

Well I mean it's still likely to get to the 30s in Awareness by the time we get to the end. That would make 10M, at the very least, slightly more likely.

[AniNate]

So that 10m in quorum refers just to the opening day I assume?

 

 

Edited April 19 by AniNate

[Flip]

45 minutes ago, Eric Atreides said:

Quorum Updates

Twisters T-92: 46.86%

Never Let Go T-162: 18.67%

 

Abigail T-1: 38.48% Awareness

Final Awareness: 39% chance of 10M, 7% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 87% chance of 10M, 62% chance of 20M

 

The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare T-1: 24.61% Awareness

Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

 

Challengers T-8: 25.92% Awareness

Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

 

Unsung Hero T-8: 17.09% Awareness

Final Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

 

Furiosa T-36: 30.17% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 81% chance of 10M, 55% chance of 20M, 35% chance of 30M, 13% chance of 40M, 10% chance of 70M, 3% chance of 90M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 30M

 

The Garfield Movie T-36: 47.44% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 96% chance of 20M, 87% chance of 30M, 61% chance of 40M, 39% chance of 50M, 35% chance of 60M

Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 67% chance of 100M

 

Inside Out 2 T-57: 51.44% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 92% chance of 40M, 85% chance of 50M, 69% chance of 60M, 61% chance of 70M, 54% chance of 90M, 46% chance of 100M

Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 50M, 33% chance of 90M

 

The Watchers T-57: 29.33% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 58% chance of 10M, 31% chance of 20M, 11% chance of 30M, 8% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 50% chance of 10M, 33% chance of 20M, 8% chance of 40M

How does Garfield have a better chance of 100m than Inside Out does at 90m when it has lower awareness and is closer to release date?

[keysersoze123]

On 4/16/2024 at 9:41 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Challengers MTC1

Early Shows(04/22) -  10009/59743 212865.41 249 shows 

Previews - 6995/227709 142617.23 1297 shows

Friday - 5707/357727 112547.81 2009 shows

 

Strong early show sales and looking at previews/Friday, its looking at 20m OW. 

Challengers MTC1

Early Shows(04/22) - 11647/59743 245975.53 249 shows

Previews(T-7) - 8629/231646 174139.25 1323 shows

Friday - 7283/363901 142488.45 2042 shows

 

This is as of late evening yesterday. Let us see how this moves over final week. 

[whatsupdoc]

19 minutes ago, Flip said:

How does Garfield have a better chance of 100m than Inside Out does at 90m when it has lower awareness and is closer to release date?

These are based only on the awareness statistic. Folding in interest would make it more accurate.  Also, something is also amiss with the analysis here because awareness and interest for IO2 is higher than GARFIELD. 

 

https://thequorum.com/awareness/

https://thequorum.com/interest/

 

Edited April 19 by whatsupdoc

[babz06]

2 hours ago, ChipDerby said:

 

Is Challengers going to break Quorum???

It’s already broken. Plenty of films they were wrong about. 

[Krissykins]

Yeh it’s Quorum being Quorum. 
 

Only the familiar titles have bigger awareness. But people could be thinking “yes I know what Garfield is” rather than knowing there’s a film coming and when. Same with Inside Out. 

[AniNate]

I feel like IF is gonna be impossible to get accurate tracking on

[Eric the Fall Guy]

4 hours ago, Flip said:

How does Garfield have a better chance of 100m than Inside Out does at 90m when it has lower awareness and is closer to release date?

Because the Animation/Family pool is very small and very awkward. Because for whatever reason, the only movies that opened above 100M in this pool only had awareness in the 40s upon the T-60 and T-30 mark. I don't know why that is, but I guess that's just what happens when your subcategory pool only has 19 movies. Either way, technically speaking, if we just used these 19 movies, Garfield has the better chance. But in this instance, it's probably better to use the charts that look at every movie. And yeah, at this point in time, Inside Out has a better chance with 45% compared to Garfield at 13%. So yeah, Inside Out's got the better chance. Don't you fret.

 

 

[emoviefan]

Yeah there is no way in hell Garfield is out opening or out grossing in total IO2.

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

CHALLENGERS

 

Thursday 

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
332	645	62492	1.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

103

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

13

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-7

(0.381x) of Civil War $1.10M

 

This is pretty good. Could do $1.5M+ previews

FLORIDA 

 

CHALLENGERS

 

Thursday 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
332	747	62492	1.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

102

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-6

(0.405x) of Civil War $1.17M

(0.892x) of Argylle $739k

Comps average: $946k

 

Nice increase today 

[keysersoze123]

FYI

MTC1 Friday Final

Ministry - 39746/299214 608878.53 2222 shows 

Abigail - 49175/409945 743482.45 2556 shows

 

2.4m TF for Ministry and 3m for Abigail?

[keysersoze123]

10 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Challengers MTC1

Early Shows(04/22) - 11647/59743 245975.53 249 shows

Previews(T-7) - 8629/231646 174139.25 1323 shows

Friday - 7283/363901 142488.45 2042 shows

 

This is as of late evening yesterday. Let us see how this moves over final week. 

Challengers MTC1

Early Shows(4/22) - 12409/62070 261451.91 260 shows +762

Previews(T-6) - 9502/239248 191084.12 1365 shows +873

Friday - 8130/368343 158216.9 2073 shows +847

 

Still the pace is not there. Let us see how things go post early shows on 22nd. 

[Pinacolada]

51 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

FYI

MTC1 Friday Final

Ministry - 39746/299214 608878.53 2222 shows 

Abigail - 49175/409945 743482.45 2556 shows

 

2.4m TF for Ministry and 3m for Abigail?

That is so depressing

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Boy Kills World	T-6	Jax	5	12	2	5	779	0.64%
		Phx	5	7	2	9	792	1.14%
		Ral	6	8	0	1	594	0.17%
	Total		16	27	4	15	2,165	0.69%
Challengers	T-6	Jax	5	19	-1	16	3,641	0.44%
		Phx	6	17	3	46	2,336	1.97%
		Ral	7	16	0	24	2,456	0.98%
	Total		18	52	2	86	8,433	1.02%
Challengers (EA)	T-3	Jax	5	5	1	30	1,392	2.16%
		Phx	1	1	11	26	208	12.50%
		Ral	2	2	3	18	412	4.37%
	Total		8	8	15	74	2,012	3.68%
Unsung Hero	T-6	Jax	5	9	0	46	1,073	4.29%
		Phx	5	10	0	20	1,992	1.00%
		Ral	8	13	2	36	1,238	2.91%
	Total		18	32	2	102	4,303	2.37%
Unsung Hero (EA)	T-5	Jax	5	7	2	214	865	24.74%
		Phx	6	9	-3	319	971	32.85%
		Ral	8	10	0	285	912	31.25%
	Total		19	26	-1	818	2,748	29.77%

 

Unsung Hero (Total) T-6 comps

 - Jesus Revolution (Total) - .704x (2.32m)

 - Sound of Freedom - .586x (3.05m)

 - Left Behind - 4.792x (2.93m)

 - Downton Abbey - 1.506x (2.77m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 2.72m

 

Challengers (Total) T-6 comps

 - I Wanna Dance - 1.013x (757k)

 - Elvis (Total) - .35x (1.25m)

 - Creed III (Total) - .321x (1.43m)

 - Lost City (Total) - .58x (1.93m)

 - Magic Mike 3 - missed

 - Joy Ride (Total) - 1.509x (1.66m)

 - Strays (Total) - 1.702x (1.87m)

 

Size adjusted comp - 1.44m

 

Boy Kills World T-6 comps

 - Vengeance - .789x

 - Bones and All - .882x (312k)

 - Reminiscence - .75x (443k)

 - Fabelmans - .833x (340k)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Boy Kills World	T-5	Jax	5	11	0	5	667	0.75%
		Phx	5	7	1	10	792	1.26%
		Ral	6	7	0	1	530	0.19%
	Total		16	25	1	16	1,989	0.80%
Challengers	T-5	Jax	5	19	5	21	3,641	0.58%
		Phx	6	17	6	52	2,336	2.23%
		Ral	7	16	3	27	2,456	1.10%
	Total		18	52	14	100	8,433	1.19%
Challengers (EA)	T-2	Jax	5	5	1	31	1,392	2.23%
		Phx	1	1	3	29	208	13.94%
		Ral	2	2	4	22	412	5.34%
	Total		8	8	8	82	2,012	4.08%
Unsung Hero	T-5	Jax	5	9	2	48	1,073	4.47%
		Phx	5	10	0	20	1,992	1.00%
		Ral	8	12	2	38	1,188	3.20%
	Total		18	31	4	106	4,253	2.49%
Unsung Hero (EA)	T-4	Jax	5	7	1	215	865	24.86%
		Phx	6	10	1	320	1,017	31.47%
		Ral	8	9	-2	283	839	33.73%
	Total		19	26	0	818	2,721	30.06%

 

Unsung Hero (Total) T-5 comps

 - Jesus Revolution (Total) - missed

 - Sound of Freedom - .533x (2.77m)

 - Left Behind - missed

 - Downton Abbey - 1.343x (2.47m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 2.57m

 

Challengers (Total) T-5 comps

 - I Wanna Dance - 1.064x (795k)

 - Elvis (Total) - missed

 - Creed III (Total) - .322x (1.44m)

 - Lost City (Total) - .528x (1.76m)

 - Magic Mike 3 - 1.12x (1.12m)

 - Joy Ride (Total) - 1.213x (1.33m)

 - Strays (Total) - 1.82x (2m)

 - Gran Turismo (Total) - .781x (1.54m)

 - No Hard Feelings (Total) - 1.556x (3.27m)

 

Size adjusted comp - 1.56m

 

Boy Kills World T-5 comps

 - Vengeance - .8x

 - Bones and All - .762x (269k)

 - Reminiscence - .727x (429k)

 - Fabelmans - .727x (297k)