The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[jeffthehat]

Indiana

Challengers T-3

Sales	Seats	Shows
229	11180	65

*pulled 12 AM EST

Comps

0.16x Ghostbusters FE T-3 = $0.8m

0.98x Dune 2 T-3 = $1.0m

1.68x Imaginary T-3 = $1.3m

0.14x GxK NE T-3 = $1.4m

0.57x Civil War T-3 = $1.7m

 

AVG = $1.24m

---

Average is undershooting a bit because I pulled 10-12 hrs earlier than usual. Civil War was pulled around same time and it looks good. 

 

[jeffthehat]

.

 

Edited April 22 by jeffthehat
mistake post

[Boxofficerules]

Tarot is going to shine while The Fall Guy falls.

Edited April 22 by Boxofficerules

[vafrow]

21 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

The Fall Guy, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-12, Thursday previews and Wednesday EA

 

Total Sales: 16

New Sales since T-13: 3

Growth: 23%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 12

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.3

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 13/6

Late Evening: 3/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

 

Dolby: 13/6

IMAX: 0/4

4DX: 3/2

 

EA sales

Total: 42

Showtimes: 6

Theatres: 5

 

Comps (Previews only, no EA)

0.615x Wonka for $2.2M

0.333x GB:FE for $1.6M

0.102x GxK for $1.0M

0.136x HG:BoSS for $0.8M

Avg: $1.4M

 

Comps (includes EA)

2.223x Wonka for $7.8M

1.208x GB:FE for $5.7M

0.369x GxK for $3.7M

0.492x HG:BoSS for $2.8M

AVG: $5.0M

 

I eyeballed some other showings in the area that seem to be doing better, so some of my results might be impacted by distortions from a smaller sample.

 

The Fall Guy, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-11, Thursday previews and Wednesday EA

 

Total Sales: 18

New Sales since T-13: 3

Growth: 13%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 12

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.5

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 15/6

Late Evening: 3/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

 

Dolby: 13/6

IMAX: 2/4

4DX: 3/2

 

EA sales

Total: 46

Showtimes: 6

Theatres: 5

 

Comps (Previews only, no EA)

0.693x Wonka for $2.4M

0.327x GB:FE for $1.5M

0.107x GxK for $1.1M

0.136x HG:BoSS for $0.8M

Avg: $1.5M

 

Comps (includes EA)

2.462x Wonka for $8.6M

1.164x GB:FE for $5.5M

0.379x GxK for $3.8M

0.485x HG:BoSS for $2.8M

AVG: $5.2M

 

A little bit of movement coming out of the weekend. Hopefully it's the start of something.

[filmlover]

Looking at movie theater schedules near me for today showing Spider-Man 2 and Shrek 2 playing on movie screens is serving real "what year is it?!" energy. 

[emoviefan]

6 hours ago, Boxofficerules said:

Tarot is going to shine while The Fall Guy falls.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 4/20/2024 at 7:50 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Boy Kills World	T-5	Jax	5	11	0	5	667	0.75%
		Phx	5	7	1	10	792	1.26%
		Ral	6	7	0	1	530	0.19%
	Total		16	25	1	16	1,989	0.80%
Challengers	T-5	Jax	5	19	5	21	3,641	0.58%
		Phx	6	17	6	52	2,336	2.23%
		Ral	7	16	3	27	2,456	1.10%
	Total		18	52	14	100	8,433	1.19%
Challengers (EA)	T-2	Jax	5	5	1	31	1,392	2.23%
		Phx	1	1	3	29	208	13.94%
		Ral	2	2	4	22	412	5.34%
	Total		8	8	8	82	2,012	4.08%
Unsung Hero	T-5	Jax	5	9	2	48	1,073	4.47%
		Phx	5	10	0	20	1,992	1.00%
		Ral	8	12	2	38	1,188	3.20%
	Total		18	31	4	106	4,253	2.49%
Unsung Hero (EA)	T-4	Jax	5	7	1	215	865	24.86%
		Phx	6	10	1	320	1,017	31.47%
		Ral	8	9	-2	283	839	33.73%
	Total		19	26	0	818	2,721	30.06%

 

Unsung Hero (Total) T-5 comps

 - Jesus Revolution (Total) - missed

 - Sound of Freedom - .533x (2.77m)

 - Left Behind - missed

 - Downton Abbey - 1.343x (2.47m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 2.57m

 

Challengers (Total) T-5 comps

 - I Wanna Dance - 1.064x (795k)

 - Elvis (Total) - missed

 - Creed III (Total) - .322x (1.44m)

 - Lost City (Total) - .528x (1.76m)

 - Magic Mike 3 - 1.12x (1.12m)

 - Joy Ride (Total) - 1.213x (1.33m)

 - Strays (Total) - 1.82x (2m)

 - Gran Turismo (Total) - .781x (1.54m)

 - No Hard Feelings (Total) - 1.556x (3.27m)

 

Size adjusted comp - 1.56m

 

Boy Kills World T-5 comps

 - Vengeance - .8x

 - Bones and All - .762x (269k)

 - Reminiscence - .727x (429k)

 - Fabelmans - .727x (297k)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Boy Kills World	T-3	Jax	5	11	6	11	667	1.65%
		Phx	5	7	0	10	792	1.26%
		Ral	6	7	0	1	530	0.19%
	Total		16	25	6	22	1,989	1.11%
Challengers	T-3	Jax	5	19	5	26	3,641	0.71%
		Phx	6	17	4	56	2,336	2.40%
		Ral	8	18	15	42	2,582	1.63%
	Total		19	54	24	124	8,559	1.45%
Challengers (EA)	T-0	Jax	5	5	21	52	1,392	3.74%
		Phx	1	1	3	32	208	15.38%
		Ral	2	2	4	26	412	6.31%
	Total		8	8	28	110	2,012	5.47%
Unsung Hero	T-3	Jax	5	9	10	58	1,073	5.41%
		Phx	5	10	5	25	1,992	1.26%
		Ral	8	12	17	55	1,188	4.63%
	Total		18	31	32	138	4,253	3.24%
Unsung Hero (EA)	T-2	Jax	5	7	3	218	865	25.20%
		Phx	6	10	5	325	1,017	31.96%
		Ral	8	9	1	284	839	33.85%
	Total		19	26	9	827	2,721	30.39%

*New shows since Saturday

 

Unsung Hero (Total) T-3 comps

 - Jesus Revolution (Total) - .648x (2.14m)

 - Sound of Freedom - .458x (2.38m)

 - Left Behind - 3.683x (2.25m)

 - Downton Abbey - 1.085x (2m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 2.19m

 

Challengers (Total) T-3 comps

 - I Wanna Dance - 1.17x (874k)

 - Elvis (Total) - missed

 - Creed III (Total) - .302x (1.35m)

 - Lost City (Total) - .515x (1.71m)

 - Magic Mike 3 - 1.05x (1.05m)

 - Joy Ride (Total) - 1.21x (1.33m)

 - Strays (Total) - 1.57x (1.73m)

 - Gran Turismo (Total) - 1.463x (1.68m)

 - No Hard Feelings (Total) - missed

 

Size adjusted comp - 1.35m

 

Boy Kills World T-3 comps

 - Vengeance - .815x

 - Bones and All - .55x (194k)

 - Reminiscence - .595x (351k)

 - Fabelmans - 1x (408k)

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 4/20/2024 at 7:54 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Fall Guy	T-12	Jax	6	36	3	18	6,208	0.29%
		Phx	6	19	0	36	3,556	1.01%
		Ral	8	29	5	43	4,195	1.03%
	Total		20	84	8	97	13,959	0.69%
Fall Guy (EA)	T-11	Jax	5	10	5	35	2,007	1.74%
		Phx	1	2	5	18	618	2.91%
		Ral	2	2	1	17	412	4.13%
	Total		8	14	11	70	3,037	2.30%
Tarot	T-12	Jax	5	21	0	4	1,752	0.23%
		Phx	6	16	0	6	2,534	0.24%
		Ral	7	18	0	7	2,268	0.31%
	Total		18	55	0	17	6,554	0.26%

 

Fall Guy (Total) T-12 adjusted comps

 - Monkey Man - 2.88x (4.76m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 2.01x (5.64m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .752x (3.54m)

 - Cocaine Bear - 1.285x (3.03m)

 - Civil War - 1.898x (5.5m)

 

Size adjusted average - 3.67m

 

Tarot T-12 adjusted comps

 - Last Voyage - .739x (554k)

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Black Phone - .205x (545k)

 - Abigail - .773x (773k)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Fall Guy	T-10	Jax	6	36	0	18	6,208	0.29%
		Phx	6	19	9	45	3,556	1.27%
		Ral	8	29	5	48	4,195	1.14%
	Total		20	84	14	111	13,959	0.80%
Fall Guy (EA)	T-9	Jax	5	10	6	41	2,007	2.04%
		Phx	1	2	0	18	618	2.91%
		Ral	2	2	2	19	412	4.61%
	Total		8	14	8	78	3,037	2.57%
Tarot	T-10	Jax	5	21	0	4	1,752	0.23%
		Phx	6	16	0	6	2,534	0.24%
		Ral	7	18	0	7	2,268	0.31%
	Total		18	55	0	17	6,554	0.26%

*New sales since Saturday

 

Fall Guy (Total) T-10 adjusted comps

 - Monkey Man - 3x (4.96m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 1.78x (5m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .719x (3.38m)

 - Cocaine Bear - 1.313x (3.1m)

 - Civil War - 1.89x (5.48m)

 

Size adjusted average - 3.67m

 

Tarot T-10 adjusted comps

 - Last Voyage - .68x (510k)

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Black Phone - .17x (452k)

 - Abigail - .654x (654k)

[TMP]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

Looking at movie theater schedules near me for today showing Spider-Man 2 and Shrek 2 playing on movie screens is serving real "what year is it?!" energy. 

We need a Troy re-release next 🙏🙏🙏

[charlie Jatinder]

On 4/7/2024 at 5:55 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

AMC Empire 25 - 705 (5)
Lincoln Square - 302 (1)
Kips Bay - 163 (2)
34th Street - 152 (2)
Newport - 105 (2)
Americana - 482 (4)
AMC The Grove - 287 (3)
Universal AMC - 297 (5)
Montebello - 323 (4)
Burbank - 605 (3)
Century 15 - 360 (4)
Orange 30 - 495 (3)
Disney Spring - 670 (3)

Mission Valley - 202 (1)
Chula Vista - 329 (5)

 

5477 - 15 locs - 47 shows

 

@keysersoze123

 

 

Empire - 932

Lincoln - 548
Kips - 174
34th - 317

Americana - 724

Spider-man 1 sales are a week out while 2 is T-0 day. Showcasing seems better this week though.

[charlie Jatinder]

Spider-man 2 MiniTC2 - 4883/14362 (72 showings) $30K

Spider-man 1 Final was 5157/10421 (51 showings) $32.2K

[Eric Furiosa]

Quorum Updates

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes T-18: 64.35%

IF T-25: 45.08%

Despicable Me 4 T-72: 57.66%

White Bird: A Wonder Story T-165: 15.33%

 

Challengers T-4: 28.04% Awareness

Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

 

Unsung Hero T-4: 16.27% Awareness

Final Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

 

Tarot T-4: 28.04% Awareness

Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

 

The Fall Guy T-11: 46.19% Awareness

Final Awareness: 79% chance of 10M, 45% chance of 20M, 26% chance of 30M, 17% chance of 40M, 9% chance of 70M, 5% chance of 80M, 2% chance of 90M

Tentpole Awareness: N/A

 

Tarot T-11: 29.84% Awareness

Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 33% chance of 10M

 

Horizon: An America Saga Part 1 T-67: 19.66%

T-60 Awareness: 30% chance of 10M, 2% chance of 20M

Medium Awareness: 33% chance of 10M

[charlie Jatinder]

SM2 around 20% higher sales than SM1 last week. Could go for $800K.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 4/15/2024 at 12:18 PM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

I've been keeping an eye on showtimes.  It's currently sitting at ~930 shows for today.  I hadn't really looked at tracking it since comps would be weird for something like this.  Here's where things stand in my regions.

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Spider-Man 2002 (Re)	T-0	Jax	1	3	177	177	257	68.87%
		Phx	1	1	31	31	49	63.27%
		Ral	1	4	137	137	200	68.50%
	Total		3	8	345	345	506	68.18%

 

Comp Buckets

All CBM movies - 687k

All action movies - 876k

All PG-13 movies - 933k

All EA shows - 741k

All movies - 1.04m

 

All said, I think 1m - 1.25m would be a good target

 

This one has more shows than last week.  Sitting at 1,193 in my sample theaters.

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Spider-Man 2 (Re)	T-0	Jax	1	4	231	231	358	64.53%
		Phx	1	1	82	82	240	34.17%
		Ral	1	8	219	219	760	28.82%
	Total		3	13	532	532	1,358	39.18%

 

I only just now realized that I used the wrong column for the comps last week... was looking at total seats instead of seats sold.  Updated comps in the quoted post.  Here are the correct comps for this week

 

Comp Buckets

All CBM movies - 1.06m

All action movies - 1.35m

All PG-13 movies - 1.43m

All EA shows - 1.14m

All movies - 1.6m

Spider-Man (2002 re-release) - 1.05m

 

All CBM was pretty much spot on last week, so I'll go with 1.06m

[vale9001]

predictions for Challengers? How are the sales distributed into the weekend? Seems a little bit frontloaded (cause young women) or not?

[AniNate]

I can't say I'm all that encouraged by sales at my midwestern theater, hopefully the big urban areas pick up the slack

 

I suppose one does have to temper their expectations with a Luca movie but man, theaters look like they're gonna be dead this weekend

[misterpepp]

Garfield went on sale today. Good ole Sony.

[Maggie]

Is 20M OW possible for Challengers?

[babz06]

3 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Is 20M OW possible for Challengers?

@keysersoze123 said it could potentially hit 20m. 

[Tinalera]

Just saw Deadpool Wolvie trailer......eh I GUESS  Ill track it. Might be a surprise hit or somethin.....you never know.....