The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 4/19/2024 at 7:40 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Fall Guy	T-13	Jax	6	36	2	15	6,208	0.24%
		Phx	6	19	0	36	3,556	1.01%
		Ral	8	32	-1	38	4,583	0.83%
	Total		20	87	1	89	14,347	0.62%
Fall Guy (EA)	T-12	Jax	5	10	3	30	2,007	1.49%
		Phx	1	2	0	13	618	2.10%
		Ral	2	2	3	16	412	3.88%
	Total		8	14	6	59	3,037	1.94%
Tarot	T-13	Jax	5	21	1	4	1,752	0.23%
		Phx	6	16	0	6	2,534	0.24%
		Ral	7	19	0	7	2,437	0.29%
	Total		18	56	1	17	6,723	0.25%

 

Fall Guy (Total) T-13 adjusted comps

 - Monkey Man - 2.6x (4.29m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 2.027x (5.69m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .851x (4.01m)

 - Cocaine Bear - 1.233x (2.91m)

 - Civil War - 1.783x (5.17m)

 

Size adjusted average - 3.75m

 

Tarot T-13 adjusted comps

 - Last Voyage - .85x (638k)

 - M3GAN - .515x (1.42m)

 - Black Phone - .215x (573k)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Fall Guy	T-12	Jax	6	36	3	18	6,208	0.29%
		Phx	6	19	0	36	3,556	1.01%
		Ral	8	29	5	43	4,195	1.03%
	Total		20	84	8	97	13,959	0.69%
Fall Guy (EA)	T-11	Jax	5	10	5	35	2,007	1.74%
		Phx	1	2	5	18	618	2.91%
		Ral	2	2	1	17	412	4.13%
	Total		8	14	11	70	3,037	2.30%
Tarot	T-12	Jax	5	21	0	4	1,752	0.23%
		Phx	6	16	0	6	2,534	0.24%
		Ral	7	18	0	7	2,268	0.31%
	Total		18	55	0	17	6,554	0.26%

 

Fall Guy (Total) T-12 adjusted comps

 - Monkey Man - 2.88x (4.76m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 2.01x (5.64m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .752x (3.54m)

 - Cocaine Bear - 1.285x (3.03m)

 - Civil War - 1.898x (5.5m)

 

Size adjusted average - 3.67m

 

Tarot T-12 adjusted comps

 - Last Voyage - .739x (554k)

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Black Phone - .205x (545k)

 - Abigail - .773x (773k)

[vafrow]

On 4/19/2024 at 6:53 AM, vafrow said:

 

The Fall Guy, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-14, Thursday previews and Wednesday EA

 

Total Sales: 11

New Sales since T-20: 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 12

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.9

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 10/6

Late Evening: 3/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

 

Dolby: 10/6

IMAX: 0/4

4DX: 3/2

 

EA sales

Total: 42

Showtimes: 6

Theatres: 5

 

Comps (Previews only, no EA)

0.564x Wonka for $2.0M

0.342x GB:FE for $1.6M

 

Comps (includes EA)

2.348x Wonka for $8.2M

1.421x GB:FE for $6.7M

 

Another zero sales day. Yes, final week and walk ups are what's going to matter in the end, but we should be seeing something at this point. We're two weeks out now.

 

 

 

The Fall Guy, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-13, Thursday previews and Wednesday EA

 

Total Sales: 11

New Sales since T-20: 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 12

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.9

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 10/6

Late Evening: 3/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

 

Dolby: 10/6

IMAX: 0/4

4DX: 3/2

 

EA sales

Total: 42

Showtimes: 6

Theatres: 5

 

Comps (Previews only, no EA)

0.542x Wonka for $1.9M

0.289x GB:FE for $1.4M

0.102x GxK for $1.0M

0.135x HG:BoSS for $0.8M

Avg: $1.3M

 

Comps (includes EA)

2.291x Wonka for $8.0M

1.222x GB:FE for $5.7M

0.443x GxK for $4.3M

0.573x HG:BoSS for $3.3M

AVG: $5.3M

 

Another zero sales day. I added in comps. Even throwing in EA sales still doesn't paint a great picture.

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

Friday

Abigail - 266/12,818

 - First Omen - .696x (1.82m)

 - Nope - .144x (1.89m)

 - Don't Worry - .306x (1.95m)

 

Avg - 1.89m

 

Spy x Family - 333/6,946

 - Dragon Ball Z - .17x (1.12m)

 - Monkey Man - 1.117x (3.11m)

 - Bullet Train - .368x (3.03m)

 

Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare - 217/7,658

 - Monkey Man - .728x (2.025m)

 - Civil War - .291x (2.3m)

 - Bullet Train - .24x (1.974m)

 - Beast - .573x (1.94m)

 

Avg - 2.06m

Santikos Tracking

 

Saturday

Abigail - 230/12,818

 - Nope - .125x (1.74m)

 - Don't Worry - .381x (2.2m)

 - Black Phone - .187x (1.41m)

 

Adjusted comps (using 3m TF)

 - Nope - 2.77m

 - Don't Worry - 3.39m

 - Black Phone - 3.39m

 

Spy x Family - 407/5,990

 - Dragon Ball Z - .256x (1.49m)

 - Bullet Train - .404x (3.91m)

 

Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare - 305/7,220

 - Civil War - .342x (2.99m)

 - Bullet Train - .303x (2.93m)

 - Beast - .968x (4.15m)

 

Adjusted comps (using 2.4m TF)

 - Civil War - 3.11m

 - Bullet Train - 3.56m

 - Beast - 5.14m

 - Elvis - 3.52m

 - Crawdads - 3.35m

 

Could see a nice increase on Saturday

[emoviefan]

2 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

Saturday

Abigail - 230/12,818

 - Nope - .125x (1.74m)

 - Don't Worry - .381x (2.2m)

 - Black Phone - .187x (1.41m)

 

Adjusted comps (using 3m TF)

 - Nope - 2.77m

 - Don't Worry - 3.39m

 - Black Phone - 3.39m

 

Spy x Family - 407/5,990

 - Dragon Ball Z - .256x (1.49m)

 - Bullet Train - .404x (3.91m)

 

Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare - 305/7,220

 - Civil War - .342x (2.99m)

 - Bullet Train - .303x (2.93m)

 - Beast - .968x (4.15m)

 

Adjusted comps (using 2.4m TF)

 - Civil War - 3.11m

 - Bullet Train - 3.56m

 - Beast - 5.14m

 - Elvis - 3.52m

 - Crawdads - 3.35m

 

Could see a nice increase on Saturday

Yeah Ministry will not be a hit by any stretch of the imagination but it could have legs with the WOM being strong it seems.  It will do gangbusters on  streaming.

[emoviefan]

2 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

The Fall Guy, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-13, Thursday previews and Wednesday EA

 

Total Sales: 11

New Sales since T-20: 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 12

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.9

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 10/6

Late Evening: 3/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

 

Dolby: 10/6

IMAX: 0/4

4DX: 3/2

 

EA sales

Total: 42

Showtimes: 6

Theatres: 5

 

Comps (Previews only, no EA)

0.542x Wonka for $1.9M

0.289x GB:FE for $1.4M

0.102x GxK for $1.0M

0.135x HG:BoSS for $0.8M

Avg: $1.3M

 

Comps (includes EA)

2.291x Wonka for $8.0M

1.222x GB:FE for $5.7M

0.443x GxK for $4.3M

0.573x HG:BoSS for $3.3M

AVG: $5.3M

 

Another zero sales day. I added in comps. Even throwing in EA sales still doesn't paint a great picture.

The Fall Guy is going to be a walkup/late ticket buy movie. Not trying to convince anybody of that. Just gonna keep saying that to myself. 😃

[Flopped]

Hi, nothing on Boy Kills World? 

[vafrow]

On 4/20/2024 at 8:11 AM, vafrow said:

 

The Fall Guy, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-13, Thursday previews and Wednesday EA

 

Total Sales: 11

New Sales since T-20: 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 12

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.9

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 10/6

Late Evening: 3/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

 

Dolby: 10/6

IMAX: 0/4

4DX: 3/2

 

EA sales

Total: 42

Showtimes: 6

Theatres: 5

 

Comps (Previews only, no EA)

0.542x Wonka for $1.9M

0.289x GB:FE for $1.4M

0.102x GxK for $1.0M

0.135x HG:BoSS for $0.8M

Avg: $1.3M

 

Comps (includes EA)

2.291x Wonka for $8.0M

1.222x GB:FE for $5.7M

0.443x GxK for $4.3M

0.573x HG:BoSS for $3.3M

AVG: $5.3M

 

Another zero sales day. I added in comps. Even throwing in EA sales still doesn't paint a great picture.

 

The Fall Guy, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-12, Thursday previews and Wednesday EA

 

Total Sales: 16

New Sales since T-13: 3

Growth: 23%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 12

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.3

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 13/6

Late Evening: 3/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

 

Dolby: 13/6

IMAX: 0/4

4DX: 3/2

 

EA sales

Total: 42

Showtimes: 6

Theatres: 5

 

Comps (Previews only, no EA)

0.615x Wonka for $2.2M

0.333x GB:FE for $1.6M

0.102x GxK for $1.0M

0.136x HG:BoSS for $0.8M

Avg: $1.4M

 

Comps (includes EA)

2.223x Wonka for $7.8M

1.208x GB:FE for $5.7M

0.369x GxK for $3.7M

0.492x HG:BoSS for $2.8M

AVG: $5.0M

 

I eyeballed some other showings in the area that seem to be doing better, so some of my results might be impacted by distortions from a smaller sample.

[vafrow]

On 4/13/2024 at 7:09 AM, vafrow said:

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, T-27 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA shows, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 14

New Sales: 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 16

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.9

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 1/3

Early Evening: 13/7

Late Evening: 0/6

 

Sales by Format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 1/7

IMAX: 8/6

VIP: 5/3

 

EA shows 

Sales: 14

Theatres: 4

Showtimes: 4

New Sales: 0

 

Comps

1.120x Fall Guy (both with EA and preview)

0.058x Dune 2 (previews only) for $0.6M

 

I don't have a lot of comp options for this far out. For an established brand though, it's not doing tremendously. 

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, T-19 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA shows, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 30

New Sales since T-27: 16

Growth: 114%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 16

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.9

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 1/3

Early Evening: 27/7

Late Evening: 2/6

 

Sales by Format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 6/7

IMAX: 17/6

VIP: 7/3

 

EA shows 

Sales: 18

Theatres: 4

Showtimes: 4

New Sales: 4

 

Comps

1.143x Fall Guy (both with EA and preview)

0.086x Dune 2 (previews only) for $0.9M

1.200x GB:FE for $5.6M

 

Average: $3.3M

 

This also seems to be sluggish. Choice of comps won't get much better until next week, but there isn't anything right now that looks like it's going to paint this in a positive light.

 

This one actually worries me more than Fall Guy in a lot of ways. Fall Guy is more likely to draw in casuals. The fourth iteration of a franchise reboot should see stronger sales up front. 

 

[vale9001]

The problem of quorum it's not clear what are the questions they make. If you ever study statistics you know making questions for a survey it's a specific art and the way you put a question can change a lot the percentage any answer gets. 

 

I'm gonna watch Changellers with my brother next friday and he wrote me on a message "did you see the spot of this movie about tennis, it's from the call my by your name director"... i said to him "challengers?"..

"i don't remember the title right now" 

 

so if they just ask "did you hear about a movie called challengers" he would say no 😅

 

 

 

 

Edited April 21 by vale9001

[emoviefan]

13 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

The problem of quorum it's not clear what are the questions they make. If you ever study statistics you know making questions for a survey it's a specific art and the way you put a question can change a lot the percentage any answer gets. 

 

I'm gonna watch Changellers with my brother next friday and he wrote me on a message "did you see the spot of this movie about tennis, it's from the call my by your name director"... i said to him "challengers?"..

"i don't remember the title right now" 

 

so if they just ask "did you hear about a movie called challengers" he would say no 😅

 

 

 

 

This is so true. I could mention a movie I saw or plan to see to my parents  and they would be like blank but then say the movie staring so and so and they would be oh yeah I saw them being interviewed on CBS Sunday Morning or something. I think a huge portion of regular not movie buff people are like this. Movie Title blindness.

[Poseidon]

Fall Guy is just destined to be that one movie, that makes watching the BO exciting again. I'm not willing to give up on some BO Magic, yet. 

[emoviefan]

1 hour ago, Poseidon said:

Fall Guy is just destined to be that one movie, that makes watching the BO exciting again. I'm not willing to give up on some BO Magic, yet. 

You know what it will be more exciting and satisfying if has a decent not great opening and then it has Fire WOM and then just chugs along with great weekend holds. There is no big 100 million dollar opener on the schedule probably until Inside Out 2 and that will not be playing to the same core audience.

[AniNate]

WOM hits are definitely nice but we need some kind of big weekend again, just to improve morale.

 

Challengers and Fall Guy both having good legs would be a nice boost to Apes' opening weekend. Would be good if at least one of the April adult titles actually resonated with a mainstream audience

 

 

Edited April 22 by AniNate

[Relevation]

1 hour ago, AniNate said:

Would be good if at least one of the April adult titles actually resonated with a mainstream audience

I mean, Civil War pretty much did

 

$25M+ opening, not terrible hold, biggest launch for an A24 movie by far, good walkups, probably a $70M+ DOM finish

[abracadabra1998]

On 4/18/2024 at 10:17 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Challengers (T-7):

Day: T-7, T-4	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 20 theaters	64	44	80	10596	0.76
Monday April 22 EA: 17 theaters	17	83	215	3773	5.7
TOTALS:	81	127	295	14369	2.05

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		57	30	71.25
MTC1:		65	39	81.25
Alamo:		4	0	5
Other chains:		11	5	13.75

 

Thursday Comps:

0.26x Civil War (THU): $750k

0.43x The Creator (THU): $580k (17 theaters)

0.58x Asteroid City: $640k (12 theaters)

 

EA Comps:

1.78x Civil War EA: $580k

0.22x Dune Part 2 (T-3 EA): $435k

0.36x MI7 (T-3 EA): $720k

 

THU + EA Comp:

0.62x Mean Girls: $2 Million

 

Still not doing great here but with an important caveat that one of the two heaviest pre-sale theaters hasn't released showtimes for Thursday previews for some reason. Whenever it does I can see the pre-sale number bounce up artificially somewhat

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Challengers (T-4):

Day: T-4, T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 23 theaters	70	40	120	11296	1.06
Monday April 22 EA: 18 theaters	18	61	276	4044	6.82
TOTALS:	88	101	396	15340	2.58

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		78	21	65
MTC1:		92	27	76.67
Alamo:		6	2	5
Other chains:		22	11	18.33

 

Thursday Comps:

0.27x Civil War (THU): $790k

1.73x Drive-Away Dolls: $605k (17 theaters)

1.06x Iron Claw: $710k (17 theaters)

0.46x The Creator (THU): $625k (17 theaters)

0.62x Asteroid City: $680k (12 theaters)

 

Average: $680k

 

EA Comps:

1.93x Civil War EA: $630k

0.75 Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare EA: $450k

0.35x MI7 (T-3 EA): $700k

 

THU + EA Comp:

0.57x Mean Girls: $1.85 Million

 

Maybe around $500k in Early Access, still doing very meh for Thursday previews but Monday EA makes it a little tricky, just hope it will accelerate quite a bit after tomorrow.

[abracadabra1998]

Minnesota Previews:

 

Unsung Hero (T-4):

Day: T-4, T-3	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 22 theaters	34	142	142	3538	4.01
Wednesday April 24 EA: 23 theaters	29	1133	1133	2698	41.99
TOTALS:	63	1275	1275	6236	20.45

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		2	2	1.41
MTC1:		51	51	35.92
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		91	91	64.08

 

What the hell lmao, how do you even go about comping something where over 80% of sales are Early Access?? Keeping them combined for now I guess

 

Comps (Combined EA + THU):

4.07x Cabrini: $2.04 Million

1.91x Chosen S4, Eps 1-3: $2.73 Million

7.86x The Shift (w/ EA): $2.93 Million

5.96x After Death: $2.39 Million

 

Average: $2.52 Million

[abracadabra1998]

On 4/18/2024 at 10:24 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

The Fall Guy (T-14):

Day: T-14, T-13	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 25 theaters	75	29	141	13674	1.03
Wednesday May 1 EA: 18 theaters	23	26	143	5090	2.81
TOTALS:	98	55	284	18764	1.51

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		117	23	82.98
MTC1:		94	17	66.67
Alamo:		18	0	12.77
Other chains:		29	12	20.57

 

Comps (combined EA + THU):

2.35x Monkey Man: $3.28 Million (17 theaters)

0.82x Ghostbusters Afterlife: $3.83 Million (17 theaters)

0.78x TMNT: $4.31 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $3.8 Million

 

Running with these comps for now, can't think of much I have honestly that fits here sadly

 

Tarot only has 2 theaters sold in all the 25 theaters I track so not posting that chart for now

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

The Fall Guy (T-11):

Day: T-11, T-10	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 25 theaters	75	11	152	13674	1.11
Wednesday May 1 EA: 18 theaters	23	22	165	5090	3.24
TOTALS:	98	33	317	18764	1.69

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		123	6	80.92
MTC1:		103	9	67.76
Alamo:		18	0	11.84
Other chains:		31	2	20.39

 

Comps (combined EA + THU):

2.24x Monkey Man: $3.14 Million (17 theaters)

0.84x Ghostbusters Frozen Empire: $3.95 Million (17 theaters)

0.71x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $3.18 Million (17 theaters)

TMNT: Missed

 

Average: $3.42 Million

 

Tarot is now at 6 tickets sold lol

[abracadabra1998]

On 4/18/2024 at 10:32 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (T-21):

Day: T-21, T-20	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 25 theaters	98	23	121	17196	0.7
Wednesday May 8 EA: 19 theaters	23	33	188	5146	3.65
TOTALS:	121	56	309	22342	1.38

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		110	20	90.91
MTC1:		71	6	58.68
Alamo:		16	1	13.22
Other chains:		34	16	28.1

 

Comps (THU + EA combined):

1.44x The Fall Guy: ???

0.32x Oppy: $3.37 Million (17 theaters)

0.44x MI7 (w/ EA): $3.94 Million (12 theaters)

 

Keeps climbing, decent pace so far

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (T-18):

Day: T-18, T-17	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 25 theaters	98	31	152	17196	0.88
Wednesday May 8 EA: 19 theaters	23	4	192	5146	3.73
TOTALS:	121	35	344	22342	1.54

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		132	22	86.84
MTC1:		85	14	55.92
Alamo:		16	0	10.53
Other chains:		51	17	33.55

 

Comps (THU + EA combined):

1.5x The Fall Guy: ???

1.29x Ghostbusters Frozen Empire: $6.07 Million (17 theaters)

1.55x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $6.97 Million (17 theaters)

0.35x Oppy: $3.72 Million (17 theaters)

MI7: Missed

 

Some bad comps here but just keeping these here for now and they should converge as the release windows even out a bit

[keysersoze123]

On 4/19/2024 at 10:11 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Challengers MTC1

Early Shows(4/22) - 12409/62070 261451.91 260 shows +762

Previews(T-6) - 9502/239248 191084.12 1365 shows +873

Friday - 8130/368343 158216.9 2073 shows +847

 

Still the pace is not there. Let us see how things go post early shows on 22nd. 

Challengers MTC1

Early Shows(4/22) - 14715/62070 307604.35 260 shows +2306

Previews(T-4) - 11715/243065 233167.37 1391 shows +2213

Friday - 11057/377245 211874.43 2118 shows  +2927

 

I could not run this yesterday and so its 2 days of data and I expect the pace today would be up quite a bit from yesterday. We will know with tomorrow's update. Definitely think potential is there for 20m OW. 

[misterpepp]

The Blue Angels IMAX doc goes on sale April 24