The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Jerri Blank-Diggler]

2 hours ago, Flopped said:

They're saying 20-25m for Abigail 

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-preview-abigail-pacing-to-outgun-henry-cavill-for-1/

 

Box Office Pro Amateur’s new format is… squishy, to put it generously. They sort of predict a Top 3, but with colossal ranges for each film. They also include a “Wild Card” with an even larger range (and a misstated title, which does not increase confidence for the reader). They now assign “Showtime Marketshare (US)” to each film, which sounds intriguing, but there’s zero explanation of whether this is an estimate based on current bookings and/or some estimated weekend earnings.

 

Finally there are some seemingly contradictory statements such as how Civil War “is retaining more than 3/4s of its IMAX screens on its second weekend,” but then they state how “Spy Code x Family: White [sic] is splitting IMAX locations with Civil War this weekend, currently claiming 20% more showtimes in the premium format than the A24 title.” How can Civil War retain ¾ of its IMAX screens BUT Spy x Family is also currently claiming 20% more IMAX showtimes than Civil War? {Btw, how is Dune 2’s supposed reentry into IMAX this weekend fitting into all this?}

 

The Top 3 and the Ranges:

 

1.      Abigail, BO Range of: $20-25 M (a very forgiving range of $5 M, reflecting 20%-25% of its total estimated OW value)

2.      Civil War, BO Range of: $10-15 M (again, an even more forgiving range of $5 M, 33%-50% of its total estimated weekend)

3.      The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare, BO Range of $7-14 M (a $7 M range, a rare feat of creating a range that could double the lower end; remember, this is the same film that BOP BOA reported a week ago as originally opening last weekend with a range of $6-10 M; now that the film's actual weekend is nigh, the range has swollen rather than contracted)

4.      “Wild Card:” the hilariously misnamed “Spy Code x Family: White”; BO Range of $7-15 M (an $8 M range on a potential $7 M earner; so broad it potentially swallows up both Civil War and Ministry, or maybe not; they cannot commit)

 

These broad ranges render the entire forecasting exercise meaningless.

 

And with these ranges, how exactly does Box Office Amateur still come up with fixed “Showtime Marketshares (US)” as follows:

 

o   Abigail: 17%

o   Civil War: 11% (even though apparently retaining 75% of IMAX theaters)

o   Ministry: 14% (but states it is opening in under 3000 theaters)

o   "Spy Code x Family" (sic): 10% [BOP/BOA don’t estimate a location count, but from other sources, it seems to be only around 2000, far fewer than the others, but yet the marketshare is only 1% less than Civil War?]

 

There may be some useful details in this preview, but it’s hard to know which ones to take seriously.

 

BOP à BOA à DOA?

Edited April 17 by Jerri Blank-Diggler

[kayumanggi]

 

[AniNate]

I've been finding HSX to be the most useful long range tracking tool recently. Yes, they're mostly just guessing too but they have the steadiest hand on what the "vibes" are.

[keysersoze123]

Fall Guy MTC1

Early Shows - 7520/91619 169143.92 371 shows

Previews - 7409/329914 154230.01 1581 shows

Friday - 6774/592388 133358.50 2790 shows

 

Again there is almost no pace.  There is still time but unless the pace picks up dramatically, we are looking at a disappointment. 

[keysersoze123]

On 4/2/2024 at 2:46 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes MTC1

Early Shows(5/8) - 3106/89018 68420.38 362 shows

Previews - 4259/212991 91372.05 879 shows

Friday - 2906/293786 60738.50 1196 shows

 

No early sign of breakout but it has 5+ weeks to go to release. Let us see where things are close to release. 

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes MTC1

Early Shows(5/8) - 11255/89557 244706.43 365 shows

Previews - 9377/459726 189282.69 2306 shows

Friday - 7901/652644 154054.47 3233 shows

 

Again minus early shows, presales are moribund. This is 15 days of update 🙂

Edited April 17 by keysersoze123

[el sid]

Abigail, counted today for tomorrow, had 248 sold tickets.

Up modest (for that genre) 21.5% since yesterday. 

 

Comps (all movies counted on Wednesday of the release week for Thursday): The Invitation (775k from previews) had 176 sold tickets = 1.1M.

Prey for the Devil (660k) had 140 = 1.15M.

Demeter (750k) -> 6 theaters compared to the same 6 theaters = 650k.

M3gan (2.75M) had 450 = 1.5M.

Lisa Frankenstein (700k) had 209 = 1.2M.

Barbarian (850k) had 222 = 950k.

The First Omen (725k) had 120 = 1.5M.

And The Pope's Exorcist (850k) had 176 = 1.2M.

Average: 1.15M. Exactly the number of yesterday.

 

Edited April 17 by el sid

[DAJK]

17 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Fall Guy MTC1

Early Shows - 7520/91619 169143.92 371 shows

Previews - 7409/329914 154230.01 1581 shows

Friday - 6774/592388 133358.50 2790 shows

 

Again there is almost no pace.  There is still time but unless the pace picks up dramatically, we are looking at a disappointment. 

Honestly sometimes I can have toxic positivity when it comes to the box office ("oh it'll all be fine!") but seriously, if this movie disappoints in a big way I'm going to go on a big "original movies are dead" rant. 

 

Yes, I know this isn't technically "original" but for all intents and purposes, for 99% of the GA it is. Great reviews, the biggest stars on the planet, a great hook/concept and fun trailers. 

[Eric Furiosa]

1 minute ago, DAJK said:

Honestly sometimes I can have toxic positivity when it comes to the box office ("oh it'll all be fine!") but seriously, if this movie disappoints in a big way I'm going to go on a big "original movies are dead" rant. 

 

Yes, I know this isn't technically "original" but for all intents and purposes, for 99% of the GA it is. Great reviews, the biggest stars on the planet, a great hook/concept and fun trailers. 

[Brainbug]

12 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Honestly sometimes I can have toxic positivity when it comes to the box office ("oh it'll all be fine!") but seriously, if this movie disappoints in a big way I'm going to go on a big "original movies are dead" rant. 

 

Yes, I know this isn't technically "original" but for all intents and purposes, for 99% of the GA it is. Great reviews, the biggest stars on the planet, a great hook/concept and fun trailers. 

 

At this point, im sadly convinced (for a long time actually) that the GA doesnt want originality.

 

They want familiar franchise fare fabricated for feel-good consumption where you dont need to think very hard or be challenged by anything. And i dont blame them, movie tickets are more expensive than ever and i would be personally a total hypocrite to complain about the GA when ive seen GxK 5 times by now and will probably see the new Jurassic World movie 20 times next year ...

 

Wait ... maybe im the problem ...

[AniNate]

I do assume Universal is focusing more promotional attention on Abigail right now, so makes sense that maybe Fall Guy presales aren't getting much of a boost, especially since Abigail's reviews are pretty good themselves

[Krissykins]

32 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Honestly sometimes I can have toxic positivity when it comes to the box office ("oh it'll all be fine!") but seriously, if this movie disappoints in a big way I'm going to go on a big "original movies are dead" rant. 

 

Yes, I know this isn't technically "original" but for all intents and purposes, for 99% of the GA it is. Great reviews, the biggest stars on the planet, a great hook/concept and fun trailers. 

Emily Blunt and Ryan Gosling? That’s a bit generous, when neither of them have been proven to open a film. 
 

(love them both, but still). 

[Eric Furiosa]

Quorum Updates

The Fall Guy T-16: 42.33%

Tarot T-16: 28.64%

Bad Boys: Ride or Die T-51: 52.57%

A Quiet Place: Day One T-72: 28.96%

Wicked T-224: 35.54%

 

Abigail T-2: 36.92% Awareness

Final Awareness: 39% chance of 10M, 7% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 87% chance of 10M, 62% chance of 20M

 

The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare T-2: 22.28% Awareness

Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

 

Back to Black T-30: 23.27% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 55% chance of 10M, 18% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 39% chance of 10M, 10% chance of 20M

 

The Strangers: Chapter 1 T-30: 30.2% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 81% chance of 10M, 55% chance of 20M, 35% chance of 30M

Horror Awareness: 87% chance of 10M, 62% chance of 20M, 37% chance of 30M

 

Sight T-37: 11.51% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 10% chance of 10M

[el sid]

Don't worry too much. You're way too young to know what real big movie stars were 😉. Even I sadly missed that era, even the 80ies.

IMO the trailer is ok, quite nice, but nothing special at all. Pretty niche, no family drama, no big love story, no American history, not heartbreaking, not controverse...as it was mentioned here, WHY exactly should this movie greatly overperform or be an indicator?

Not ment as an offense, not at all. I think it will do fine, maybe even surprise, I hope so...

 

If Horizon, Garfield, M: I and Gladiator 2 all flop despite being good movies, then we should worry...

[filmlover]

Yeah, I love both Gosling and Blunt as much as the next person, but calling them the "biggest stars on the planet" is definitely...stretching it. 

 

I've actually seen a lot of ads for The Fall Guy in recent weeks, but whether they'll be effective in getting people to buy tickets is remains to be seen. I think expectations on this might've gotten a little carried away after the release date upgrade (which I assume wouldn't have occurred had the strike not impacted the schedule) + inflated expectations from Barbenheimer.

[AniNate]

Clearly given the #1 movie at the box office original movies aren't dead, if maybe they can't as easily get nine-figure budgets. I'm not really expecting the early summer to save the year revenue-wise at this point, just hoping to enjoy what output they were willing to greenlight and release.

 

 

Edited April 17 by AniNate

[Speedorito]

Yeah it’s harder and harder to deny that Hollywood is declining. At this point an original film doing relatively decent numbers should be considered a really nice surprise that breaks the pattern.

[babz06]

7 hours ago, Mojoguy said:

So theaters are basically dead until Apes comes out right?

Just because there aren’t any blockbusters coming out doesn’t mean theaters are dead. These mid budget films are actually keeping them alive. 
 

Edited April 17 by babz06

[AJG]

11 minutes ago, babz06 said:

Just because there aren’t any blockbusters coming out doesn’t mean theaters are dead. These mid budget films are actually keeping them alive. 
 

Being anchor stores in shopping malls and retail parks with landlords being forced to slash their rent is what’s keeping them alive. 

[Shawn Robbins]

Posting this here as an FYI for everyone to help spread the word, but there could be brief/occasional forum downtime over the next few days as we do some maintenance. Hopefully it will be limited or unnoticeable, but if the site isn't accessible for any reason, keep trying and rest assured it'll be back up soon.

Thanks,

Shawn

[AniNate]

10 minutes ago, AJG said:

Being anchor stores in shopping malls and retail parks with landlords being forced to slash their rent is what’s keeping them alive. 

 

Yeah, movie theaters aren't really the anchor of anything these days. If they're able to survive it's because the retail complex has a lot more going for it than them.