The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[vafrow]

I'm not too thrilled with the tracking on Fall Guy, I'm not willing to write off the box office just yet for original films. 

 

This slot was always a big ask for this film. The summer kick off needs something familiar to get people excited. Something original plays better when you've had a string of franchise fare, and need something to counter it.

 

We've also seen that just when the box office looks darkest is when you get a Barbenheimmer level surprise. We've learned not to get too low, not to get too high. We know things are different. We know the new normal isn't as good as the old times.

 

Let's see how it plays out. 

[SpiderByte]

34 minutes ago, babz06 said:

Just because there aren’t any blockbusters coming out doesn’t mean theaters are dead. These mid budget films are actually keeping them alive. 
 

I dunno if Boy Kills World is what's keeping theaters alive. It keeps them in operation between blockbusters but the big ticket items are absolutely what keep the lights on

[filmlover]

Boy Kills World is another movie where if the filmmakers had expected it to be a hit, they wouldn't have released it with that un-marquee-friendly title. 

 

I had to look up and see if it was based on a graphic novel or something, and lo and behold, I guess it is (a very obscure one, apparently).

Edited April 17 by filmlover

[DAJK]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Yeah, I love both Gosling and Blunt as much as the next person, but calling them the "biggest stars on the planet" is definitely...stretching it. 

 

I've actually seen a lot of ads for The Fall Guy in recent weeks, but whether they'll be effective in getting people to buy tickets is remains to be seen. I think expectations on this might've gotten a little carried away after the release date upgrade (which I assume wouldn't have occurred had the strike not impacted the schedule) + inflated expectations from Barbenheimer.

Honestly I would argue that Gosling right now is as big as he ever has been (or ever will be) and is very likely one of the hottest names in Hollywood at the moment. 

[AniNate]

Even if Fall Guy does disappoint, we got another original would-be blockbuster a couple weeks afterward to pin hopes on.

 

Honestly I am kinda surprised HSX is as high on IF as it is, must be really banking on a starved family audience.

[filmlover]

10 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Honestly I would argue that Gosling right now is as big as he ever has been (or ever will be) and is very likely one of the hottest names in Hollywood at the moment. 

I mean, he is, but his individual drawing power itself has always been iffy. La La Land was a smash obviously, but that was in the midst of The Nice Guys, Blade Runner 2049, and First Man all made less than what was expected from them.

 

I'm not counting Barbie (or obvious ensemble films like The Big Short, for that matter) cause that was obviously its own phenomenon that will be impossible for even the inevitable sequel to duplicate lol.

Edited April 17 by filmlover

[Boxofficerules]

The Fall Guy is going to fall over Tarot.

[ringedmortality]

90M OW for The Fall Guy final prediction

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

The Fall Guy is going to fall over Tarot.

[filmlover]

22 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Even if Fall Guy does disappoint, we got another original would-be blockbuster a couple weeks afterward to pin hopes on.

 

Honestly I am kinda surprised HSX is as high on IF as it is, must be really banking on a starved family audience.

I think IF looks cute? And Paramount's been marketing it quite aggressively, so maybe they think (or know) they have a winner on their hands. I could see it having a Wonder-esque run if the reviews/WOM end up positive.

[Firepower]

14 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

90M OW for The Fall Guy final prediction

[AniNate]

Wonderesque sure, but HSX is thinking $150mil+ right now

[Cmasterclay]

I can't believe that after three years of me screaming bloody murder about the state of the box office, everyone came around to my position because The Fall Guy is going to open the same as Bullet Train.

[emoviefan]

Won't lie this Fall Guy conversation is a real bummer.  Something has not clicked with audiences yet. It really does show the GA does not give two shits about SWSW or even know it's a thing. They may have been better off just waiting to closer to release to screen and drop the embargo. Having said all that I still feel like this is a movie that could  have a  late presale bump and strong walkups. Also unless there is disconnect between audiences and critics the WOM should be good to great so legs will be good and with no 800LB gorilla in May a IM of at least 3.0 should happen. Of course only opening to 30 m or so only gets it to 90. or so then.

[emoviefan]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

I can't believe that after three years of me screaming bloody murder about the state of the box office, everyone came around to my position because The Fall Guy is going to open the same as Bullet Train.

Don't take this the wrong way but I hate that you may be right and you probably hate it too.

[AniNate]

No individual movie performance bugs me so much in itself as how it just kills the vibes of the community. I had no interest in GodKong, but its breakout opening was probably the happiest the forum had been since barbenheimer. It does truly feel like the community's mental state is only as good as the last box office weekend.

 

 

Edited April 18 by AniNate

[babz06]

Fall Guy leaning heavily on the Barbieheimer stuff with GoslingBlunt isn’t going to cut it. They need it to be its own event. So marketing does need to get better in that regard especially when press tour starts.  I agree that this seems more like a walk up movie rather than big pre sales. 

Edited April 18 by babz06

[emoviefan]

5 minutes ago, AniNate said:

No individual movie performance bugs me so much in itself as how it just kills the vibes of the discourse. I had no interest in GodKong, but its breakout opening was probably the happiest the forum had been since barbenheimer. It does truly feel like the community's mental state is only as good as the last box office weekend.

This all the way. I am still looking forward to The Fall Guy and really hope it is a late bloomer and has monster Anyone But You legs but right now the vibe is a real depressing 

Edited April 18 by emoviefan

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Nvm

Edited April 18 by AMC Theaters Enjoyer

[Flopped]

14 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Won't lie this Fall Guy conversation is a real bummer.  Something has not clicked with audiences yet.

 

Well the trailer looks awful.