The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

 

[TheFlatLannister]

22 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando

 

Inside Out 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-30 *First few hours

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
143	851	28177	3.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 8:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-30

(5.096x) of Trolls 3 $6.62M
(5.221x) of Migration $7.83M

(1.600x) of Aquaman 2 $7.20M

Comps average: $7.22M

bringing out the old guns for this one. Well, I can't really tell if this is a breakout or not yet. Looks very good especially in the first few hours. 

 

These are probably terrible comps, but might as well try something 

Orlando

 

Inside Out 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-29

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
143	1026	28177	3.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

175

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-29

(5.830x) of Trolls 3 $7.58M
(2.197x) of Aquaman 2 $9.89M

(2.965x) of Elemental $7.12M

Comps average: $8.20M

 

This is a super super strong day 2. Probably just Orlando overindexing, but yeah starting to lean towards something big brewing

[el sid]

2 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

Could definitely see a world where people get super optimistic again because of overperformances on May 17th, 24th, and June 7th and then get heartbroken by an IO2 disappointment. Way, way too early to tell on that, though.

Not sure about the rest yet but IO2 IMO could disappoint. Reminds me of the The Fall Guy situation. Why are people here so convinced that this movie will become a hit? The posters look bad and the trailer that I saw at IMDb is absolutely not helpful IMO too: A happy girl adds only negative feelings as a teen, why not also the positive ones? Sounds to me like a social media construct. And most of all, WHO wants to see that?

Edited May 15 by el sid

[keysersoze123]

16 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando

 

Inside Out 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-29

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
143	1026	28177	3.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

175

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-29

(5.830x) of Trolls 3 $7.58M
(2.197x) of Aquaman 2 $9.89M

(2.965x) of Elemental $7.12M

Comps average: $8.20M

 

This is a super super strong day 2. Probably just Orlando overindexing, but yeah starting to lean towards something big brewing

Have you reverted back to tracking just Orlando? I thought you were tracking entire Florida?

[TheFlatLannister]

11 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Have you reverted back to tracking just Orlando? I thought you were tracking entire Florida?

Just for Inside out because of comps. Still tracking for Florida just keeping it in my sheets and not posting it. 

 

Will probably do the same thing for Deadpool 

[Relevation]

24 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando

 

Inside Out 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-29

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
143	1026	28177	3.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

175

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-29

(5.830x) of Trolls 3 $7.58M
(2.197x) of Aquaman 2 $9.89M

(2.965x) of Elemental $7.12M

Comps average: $8.20M

 

This is a super super strong day 2. Probably just Orlando overindexing, but yeah starting to lean towards something big brewing

I think I've clocked what the presales pattern is gonna look like here

Spoiler

 

Now hear me out, Barbie did not immediately start off looking like the nuclear $160M+ opening behemoth in terms of presales, and looking back at the old tracking thread, the Orlando comps for it only yielded $10-14M at the start of the window. Buuuuuut what Barbie did after is go on a nonstop tear of daily increases that turned those $10-14M comps into a monster $20-25M that even put something like a $180M+ debut into question heading into the final week. I think Inside Out 2 could be doing the same general thing, slightly soft start of $6-8M but then goes on a crazy run of successive increases that eventually get it to the $12-15M range I thought it was hitting at the start of the window. And this perspective kinda does work with Barbie and IO2 both being female skewing, younger properties without the built in fan rush of a Spider-Verse or Little Mermaid. 

 

Granted there are obviously holes in my theory, such as that the early comps for Barbie weren't the greatest (Oppy and ROTB lol), Barbie had the most insane marketing campaign ever, and expecting any movie to have the kind of huge run that Barbie did is a bold assumption to make. 

 

But I dunno, I feel like it could happen.

[ThomasNicole]

If Furiosa ends up with +5M previews, along with Memorial Day to boost it’s SUN, it can try 50M OW and easily break the record for the franchise, which would be a great headline for it, especially in a weak summer.
 

Sales seems steadily good, let’s see if there’s a bump tomorrow after the great reviews out of Cannes.

[Dementeleus]

2 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

Could definitely see a world where people get super optimistic again because of overperformances on May 17th, 24th, and June 7th and then get heartbroken by an IO2 disappointment. Way, way too early to tell on that, though.

heartbroken… by IO2 disappointment?

[filmlover]

39 minutes ago, el sid said:

Not sure about the rest yet but IO2 IMO could disappoint. Reminds me of the The Fall Guy situation. Why are people here so convinced that this movie will become a hit? The posters look bad and the trailer that I saw at IMDb is absolutely not helpful IMO too: A happy girl adds only negative feelings as a teen, why not also the positive ones? Sounds to me like a social media construct. And most of all, WHO wants to see that?

It's mostly (and obviously) banking on the popularity of the original from 9 years ago and hoping for crossover appeal with a new set of kids/families along with said aged up demo (the 10 year-olds who saw it on the big screen in 2015 are college age today).

[cannastop]

I don't know exactly what to expect from Inside Out 2 this far in advance, but the tracking here tells me to expect a $80m OW? I don't think it will be quite like Barbie's trajectory because Barbie was something a little bit newer than a Pixar sequel.

[el sid]

41 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It's mostly (and obviously) banking on the popularity of the original from 9 years ago and hoping for crossover appeal with a new set of kids/families along with said aged up demo (the 10 year-olds who saw it on the big screen in 2015 are college age today).

I agree.

This is of course subjectively perceived but I liked the first movie way more than I thought and I don't want to ruin that impression.

And the uncreative IO2 trailers where they only add some negative (cliché) emotions aren't helpful to change my mind. 

Edited May 16 by el sid

[AniNate]

I think I'm relatively bearish on IO2 expecting an opening basically the same as the original unadjusted. There's definitely nostalgia for it to the point where it needn't worry about a Lightyear kind of bombage, but I also think there's a lot more skepticism toward Pixar these days and they're not gonna draw megablockbuster numbers based on IP alone. If reviews are great though a $500mil total is possible through legs.

 

 

Edited May 16 by AniNate

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, Relevation said:

I think I've clocked what the presales pattern is gonna look like here

  Hide contents

 

Now hear me out, Barbie did not immediately start off looking like the nuclear $160M+ opening behemoth in terms of presales, and looking back at the old tracking thread, the Orlando comps for it only yielded $10-14M at the start of the window. Buuuuuut what Barbie did after is go on a nonstop tear of daily increases that turned those $10-14M comps into a monster $20-25M that even put something like a $180M+ debut into question heading into the final week. I think Inside Out 2 could be doing the same general thing, slightly soft start of $6-8M but then goes on a crazy run of successive increases that eventually get it to the $12-15M range I thought it was hitting at the start of the window. And this perspective kinda does work with Barbie and IO2 both being female skewing, younger properties without the built in fan rush of a Spider-Verse or Little Mermaid. 

 

Granted there are obviously holes in my theory, such as that the early comps for Barbie weren't the greatest (Oppy and ROTB lol), Barbie had the most insane marketing campaign ever, and expecting any movie to have the kind of huge run that Barbie did is a bold assumption to make. 

 

But I dunno, I feel like it could happen.

Florida is somehow even crazier. Sold 2357 seats and is getting a blockbuster rollout in terms of showing allocations.

Kung Fu panda comp day 2: gives me $8.50M 

[HummingLemon496]

2 hours ago, Legion Again said:

By high double digit I meant OW

Nah, this would be pretty bad. And I say this as a pro-IO2/Disney supporter.

Edited May 16 by HummingLemon496

[AniNate]

Pixar had their worst post-Toy Story opening weekend ever last year. I would be wary about setting expectations too high here.

[AniNate]

It is encouraging that Canton is already giving me something to work with with 12 Thursday preview sales. Same number for Fri-Sun

[misterpepp]

The Watchers on sale May 22

[AniNate]

I Saw the TV Glow has sold 11 at the bistro theater for the weekend. Idk if this means anything but yeah...

[Eric S'ennui]

Quorum Updates

The Watchers T-23: 30.53% Awareness, 44.51% Interest

Deadpool & Wolverine T-72: 54.37% Awareness, 63.94% Interest

Transformers One T-128: 36.29% Awareness, 48.36% Interest

Terrifier 3 T-149: 21.91% Awareness, 36.74% Interest

 

Back to Black T-2: 36.88% Awareness, 41.49% Interest

Final Awareness: 41% chance of 10M, 7% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 28% chance of 10M, 7% chance of 20M

Final Interest: 49% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

Low Interest: 35% chance of 10M, 2% chance of 20M

 

IF T-2: 57.34% Awareness, 51.58% Interest

Final Awareness: 92% chance of 20M, 72% chance of 30M, 36% chance of 40M, 24% chance of 50M, 16% chance of 60M

Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 33% chance of 30M

Final Interest: 78% chance of 20M, 59% chance of 30M, 46% chance of 40M, 32% chance of 50M, 24% chance of 60M

Animation/Family Interest: 100% chance of 50M, 60% chance of 90M, 40% chance of 100M

 

The Strangers: Chapter 1 T-2: 31.61% Awareness, 46.92% Interest

Final Awareness: 41% chance of 10M, 7% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 43% chance of 10M, 7% chance of 20M

Final Interest: 49% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

Horror Interest: 42% chance of 10M, 10% chance of 20M

 

Inside Out 2 T-30: 53.59% Awareness, 53.2% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 79% chance of 50M, 58% chance of 60M, 53% chance of 70M, 37% chance of 80M, 32% chance of 100M

Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 50M, 67% chance of 70M

T-30 Interest: 53% chance of 50M, 39% chance of 60M, 28% chance of 70M, 25% chance of 80M, 22% chance of 90M, 19% chance of 100M

Animation/Family Interest: 100% chance of 50M, 60% chance of 90M, 40% chance of 100M

 

The Bikeriders T-37: 15.31% Awareness, 34.41% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 12% chance of 10M

T-30 Interest: 33% chance of 10M

Low Interest: 28% chance of 10M

 

Fly Me to the Moon T-58: 18.69% Awareness, 35.23% Interest

T-60 Awareness: 29% chance of 10M, 2% chance of 20M

Medium Awareness: 37% chance of 10M

T-60 Interest: 34% chance of 10M, 8% chance of 20M, 4% chance of 30M

Low Interest: 71% chance of 10M, 14% chance of 30M

[Relevation]

TWO THEATER MN PRESALES TRACK (T-1) 

05/16/24

The Strangers: Chapter One - 36 tickets sold

IF - 33 tickets sold

Back to Black - 9 tickets sold

 

COMPS

The Strangers: Chapter One

1.71x of Abigail ($1.71M)

2.11x of Imaginary ($1.54M)

2.77x of The First Omen ($2.01M)

3.00x of Tarot ($2.15M)

AVERAGE: $1.85M

 

IF

0.27x of Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire ($1.27M)

0.31x of Kung Fu Panda 4 ($1.19M)

0.63x of Argylle ($1.08M)

AVERAGE: $1.18M

 

Back to Black

0.03x of Bob Marley: One Love ($370K)

0.17x of Challengers ($272K)

0.41x of Drive-Away Dolls ($184K)

0.75x of The Book of Clarence ($214K)

AVERAGE: $260K

 

And the horror curse of this market has been vanquished! The Strangers: Chapter One sold surprisingly well here, even somehow knocking IF for best selling movie of the weekend. Comps are hovering in the $1.5-2.2M range and I don't have a clue how walkups play here, but I suppose the $1.85M THU average my comps spit out sounds pretty right, combined with a $15Mish OW. IF completely tanked here, brutal comp average with no good comparisons at all. $1.2-1.5M THU and something in the ballpark of an $18-24M OW? And for how shitty IF did, Back to Black cratered even harder, and likely would've been the worst selling movie I've ever tracked had I not run numbers a little late. Sub-$300K THU and a $2.5-4M OW.