The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[AniNate]

Did a quick Canton count for Furiosa:

 

THURSDAY - 108

FRIDAY - 74

SATURDAY - 98

SUNDAY - 42

 

Might be copium but Saturday being significantly higher than Friday gives me hope of a certain casual interest

[Pinacolada]

I'm preparing for a very disappointing weekend with numbers and projections just continually getting lower and lower. 

 

The only upper to my weekend will be actually watching Furiosa (in an empty theater probably)

[filmlover]

FWIW I always felt Furiosa along with Twisters were the big wild cards of the summer where any outcome, even a poor one, for them wouldn't surprise anyone. I'd definitely say the latter always had the higher chance of succeeding being an easier sell as a PG-13 disaster film vs. a brutally violent R-rated prequel set post-apocalypse, though opening a week before what's looking to be an 800 pound gorilla is already looking to put that in a tough-ish position too.

 

For a while I felt this was headed for like an $80M total or something all things considered (the dicey nature of prequels with no returning stars, the 9 year gap between movies) so hopefully it can make it past $100M. In retrospect, Fury Road being a high quality movie to the point of being an Oscar contender probably brought in people that wouldn't have checked it out otherwise.

Edited May 23 by filmlover

[Borobudur]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

It's just a question of whether anything can build up excitement until Deadpool & Wolverine (which is looking like a guaranteed monster at this point) arrives in late July. At least we already know that has #1 movie of the summer (maybe even the year too?) on lock.

Unless D&W is legging out like crazy, the final finish line would be around ~450m. That is the lowest grossing summer number 1 movie in the past 3 years. I can foresee a situation where IO2 opens lower than D&W but finish higher than D&W and win the summer.

[AniNate]

On 5/17/2024 at 12:46 PM, AniNate said:

Canton now at 18 for IO2 Thursday, 23 Fri-Sun

 

Finally a little movement here. 23 Thursday, 52 Fri-Sun

[WorkingonaName]

Kinda warming to the idea of Twisters winning the summer.

[YM!]

16 minutes ago, AniNate said:

 

Finally a little movement here. 23 Thursday, 52 Fri-Sun

You know I did some snooping around for the Funko Event as I was curious if perhaps families getting presales for the opening Saturday vs opening Thursday as those sales are kind of weak Thursday and uhm it’s at 250 tickets. Which is like 5 times Garfield’s EA showing of 50 tickets all at PLF prices despite normal theaters. Most of which at 9:30 AM with only one theater having it at 11:00 AM.

Edited May 23 by YM!

[TheFlatLannister]

21 minutes ago, WorkingonaName said:

Kinda warming to the idea of Twisters winning the summer.

Where is this idea coming from that Twisters is going to be this huge 4 quadrant blockbuster film? I'm just not seeing it (it would probably need over $500M DOM and $1B+ WW to win the summer)

[ReturnOfTheBoxOffice]

27 minutes ago, WorkingonaName said:

Kinda warming to the idea of Twisters winning the summer.

It’s not beating D&W but I could easily see it as #2.

[ReturnOfTheBoxOffice]

4 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Where is this idea coming from that Twisters is going to be this huge 4 quadrant blockbuster film? I'm just not seeing it (it would probably need over $500M DOM and $1B+ WW to win the summer)

There hasn’t been a good disaster film in ages and it’s connected to a well known IP in the age of IPs.

[abracadabra1998]

On 5/21/2024 at 10:06 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Furiosa (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	165	153	1274	25407	5.01

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		1075	120	84.38
MTC1:		731	82	57.38
Alamo:		181	16	14.21
Other chains:		362	55	28.41

 

Comps:

0.97x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (w/ EA): $6.38 Million

1.74x Fall Guy (w/ EA): $5.49 Million

0.82x BoSS: $4.7 Million (17 theaters)

0.72x MI7 (TUE): $5.07 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $5.41 Million

 

About that good pace @Porthos...

 

Not a great update, down against every comp. This is also a movie that is highly overindexing in MTC1 and Alamo (only 28% sold in other chains is pretty low). That is most comparable to... BoSS, which is (not) coincidentally the lowest comp value I have. Right now with this pace and thinking about those variables I think $4.5-5 Million is a good target, but I will be looking closest at that comp moving forward.

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Furiosa (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	165	215	1497	25407	5.89

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		1239	164	82.77
MTC1:		856	125	57.18
Alamo:		185	4	12.36
Other chains:		456	86	30.46

 

Comps:

1.47x Fall Guy (w/ EA): $4.64 Million

0.8x BoSS: $4.57 Million (17 theaters)

0.65x MI7 (TUE): $4.55 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $4.59 Million

 

Removed Kingdom as a comp because I didn't track EA on its T-0 so it doesn't make much sense to keep it, and also because it seems walk-ups will be the opposite story. So while the average doesn't tell the whole story, it still dropped significantly against every comp. The MTC1 over-index is crazy too. No update from me tomorrow, so based on pace, I will go with a final prediction of $4.3 Million, +/- 0.3. 

Edited May 23 by abracadabra1998

[abracadabra1998]

On 5/21/2024 at 10:16 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

The Garfield Movie (T-2):

Day: T-3	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	140	25	154	16948	0.91

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		8	0	5.19
MTC1:		77	7	50
Alamo:		17	2	11.04
Other chains:		60	16	38.96

 

Thursday comps:

0.77x IF: $1.34 Million

0.28x Kung Fu Panda 4: $1.06 Million

0.6x Migration: $905k

0.28x Wonka: $965k

0.74x Trolls 3: $965k

 

Average: $1.05 Million

 

Gonna keep sounding the alarm bells. HORRIBLE update for this so close to release.

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

The Garfield Movie (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 25 theaters	143	86	240	17205	1.39

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		9	1	3.75
MTC1:		109	32	45.42
Alamo:		21	4	8.75
Other chains:		110	50	45.83

 

Thursday comps:

0.75x IF: $1.31 Million

0.28x Kung Fu Panda 4: $1.07 Million

0.68x Migration: $1.02 Million

0.33x Wonka: $1.15 Million

0.86x Trolls 3: $1.12 Million

 

Average: $1.13 Million

 

Ok final update, rose against a few comps and kinda converging a little bit. No update tomorrow either so I'll go with $1.2 Million, +/- 0.2. Maybe this will have stellar walk-ups, I sure hope it does, but I am not seeing it from pre-sales sadly.

Edited May 23 by abracadabra1998

[crazymoviekid]

23 hours ago, crazymoviekid said:

Furiosa: 

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 15 Tickets
Theater 2: 21 Tickets

 

KotPotA: $4.50M
Civil War: $5.28M
Dune: Part II: $3.75M
Oppenheimer: $1.12M
JW:C4:  $2.48M
Avatar 2: $3.22M
Top Gun 2: $3.14M

 

Decent day. Comps either ticked up or are level. Feeling $4M-$5.5M

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 9 Tickets
Theater 2: 24 Tickets

 

KotPotA: $7.24M
Civil War: $15.37M
Dune: Part II: $3.88M
Oppenheimer: $1.42M
JW:C4:  $4.31M
Avatar 2: $2.91M
Top Gun 2: $3.22M

 

Rather mute start.  Sales will come.

Furiosa:

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 18 Tickets

Theater 2: 22 Tickets

 

KotPotA: $3.45M

Civil War: $3.83M

Dune: Part II: $3.54M

Oppenheimer: $.94M

JW:C4: $2.07M

Avatar 2: $2.97M

Top Gun 2: $2.79M

 

Pretty steep drop. Looking more like $3M-$4M

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 11 Tickets

Theater 2: 29 Tickets

 

KotPotA: $6.10M

Civil War: $11.73M

Dune: Part II: $3.41M

Oppenheimer: $1.27M

JW:C4: $3.85M

Avatar 2: $3.09M

Top Gun 2: $2.84M

 

Somehow still very mute. No way, but these comps are giving $5M.

[crazymoviekid]

23 hours ago, crazymoviekid said:

Garfield: 

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 5 Tickets 

Theater 2: 2 Tickets

 

IF: $.88M

KFP4: $.92M

Trolls 3: $1.73M

TLM: $.38M

 

Not a single day. Pretty bad. Sales will come back, but it's not encouraging.

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 9 Tickets 

Theater 2: 1 Tickets

 

IF: $1.70M

KFP4: $1.33M

Trolls 3: $1.28M

TLM: $.44M

 

Damn. Pretty dreadful. Will recover, but another warning

Garfield: 

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 9 Tickets 

Theater 2: 2 Tickets

 

IF: $1.13M

KFP4: $1.05M

Trolls 3: $1.51M

TLM: $.46M

 

Fine day of sales, but still not recovering. Looking between $1M-$1.5M.

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 20 Tickets 

Theater 2: 10 Tickets

 

IF: $3.72M

KFP4: $3.19M

Trolls 3: $2.63M

TLM: $.97M

 

Much needed recovery day. Still a long way to go. $3M-$4M right now.

[Relevation]

Something must be up with Garfield at one of my theaters, as the back row is completely clear out in all 3 standard showings with not much else going on. Not sure if this is a strong preference for the back row, or if these seats are blocked out.

[AniNate]

I don't really want to get into melodramatics regarding the schedule but it does seem like it would be more ideal for Universal if Twisters and Despicable Me switched release dates. They seem to be leaning into the whole red-blooded 'murican angle with Twisters anyway so it makes more sense as a July 4th release. I dunno if they were afraid of a possible Horizon breakout or something but that doesn't seem like that's gonna be too big a concern now.

[ringedmortality]

36 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Where is this idea coming from that Twisters is going to be this huge 4 quadrant blockbuster film? I'm just not seeing it (it would probably need over $500M DOM and $1B+ WW to win the summer)

Hope. Prayer.

[AniNate]

If Twisters does end up disappointing, definitely gonna be a lot of second guessing about their July tentpole placement. But on the other hand I still want to see what happens, maybe Twistpool can become a meme of sorts.

[Alexander]

Have to say Furiosa sales in my country are shockingly low, definitely looks like an under 300M WW blockbuster here.

Edited May 23 by Alexander

[abracadabra1998]

16 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Something must be up with Garfield at one of my theaters, as the back row is completely clear out in all 3 standard showings with not much else going on. Not sure if this is a strong preference for the back row, or if these seats are blocked out.

I know exactly what theater that is because I track it too lol. They sometimes block out that last row in that particular amphitheater, as well as 5 other seats (maybe broken or what not). The actual number sold there in those three showings is 11 seats