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Shawn Robbins

The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

By Shawn Robbins, in Box Office Discussion

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Posted by katnisscinnaplex,

Presales Tracking Information   I guess this is as good of a time as any to share this sheet I've been putting together for the past few weeks.  It's a table of movies from the past few years with relevant pre-sales information (release date, sales date, sales window, previews gross, etc.)  @datpepper and I will try to keep it updated when ticket sales dates are announced for upcoming films to make those easier to find.     There are a few gaps in the sheet where I couldn't f

Pre Sale Data Google Doc

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Posted by XXRDJisDoctorDoom,

I’m sure I’ve done enough “reminding” at this point that this is the tracking thread and not a discussion thread. Take your predictions and commentary elsewhere. No more warnings on this subject.
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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted
On 7/17/2024 at 9:55 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1

Previews(T-8) - 259665/1362894 4692515.53 8510 shows +7751

Friday - 146416/1508736 2687896.97 8402 shows +6524

 

 

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1

Previews(T-7) - 269367/1376789 4854370.40 8625 shows +9702

Friday -  154736/1510676 2828629.59  8420 shows +8320

 

MTC2 Previews - 134027/714819 1998898.20 5619 shows 

 

Definite sign of acceleration. Its around 10% ahead of Thor and minus the fan shows on par with it. T-7 Thor pace was 9057 and so its all on par. Now its all about final week surge. This is my final update but there is someone else who might update going forward. Should be a fun final week. I am now thinking 32-34m previews and 160-170m OW. 

 

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Ryan C Sleeper Hit

Ryan C

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1

Previews(T-7) - 269367/1376789 4854370.40 8625 shows +9702

Friday -  154736/1510676 2828629.59  8420 shows +8320

 

MTC2 Previews - 134027/714819 1998898.20 5619 shows 

 

Definite sign of acceleration. Its around 10% ahead of Thor and minus the fan shows on par with it. T-7 Thor pace was 9057 and so its all on par. Now its all about final week surge. This is my final update but there is someone else who might update going forward. Should be a fun final week. I am now thinking 32-34m previews and 160-170m OW. 

 

 

This is gonna be great! 

 

After what happened with Twisters these past couple of days, really anything is possible, but do not be surprised if we're in for a crazy final week that just pushes this movie higher and higher. 

 

If I'm wrong, I'll gladly accept that, but we'll know more after this weekend.

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jeffthehat Indie Sensation

jeffthehat

Posted
Posted
21 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

Indiana

Twisters T-0

  Sales     Seats     Shows  
  3150   40661   260

TC=28, pulled 11AM EST

Comps

0.93x Dune 2 T-0 = $9.3m

1.85x Bad Boys 4 T-0 = $10.4m

3.16x Furiosa T-0 = $11.0m

0.93x AQP D1 T-0 = $14.0m

 

AVG = $11.16m

 

Lol. Idk where this will end up but it went crazy here. I think other trackers have more represenative samples though 

Indiana Lite

Twisters Fri T-0

  Sales     Seats     Shows  
  3739   29487   156

TC=10, pulled 9AM EST

Comps

3.70x Furiosa Fri T-0 = $25.5m

1.84x Bad Boys 4 Fri T-0 = $28.7m

2.04x Kingdom Apes Fri T-0 = $31.9m

2.11x AQP D1 Fri T-0 = $32.9m

 

AVG = $29.78m

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katnisscinnaplex Box Office Gold

katnisscinnaplex

Posted
Posted
On 7/12/2024 at 10:41 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie TC Shows Change Standard Last PSA PLF IMAX 3D
Despicable Me 4 3,441 102,526 -21.21% 78,557 576.42 23,969 4,473 12,337
Inside Out 2 2,880 59,121 -18.55% 51,349 417.65 7,772 1,345 5,291
Fly Me to the Moon 2,848 47,730   47,367   363    
A Quiet Place: Day One 2,743 45,488 -30.17% 44,069 316.31 1,419 273  
Longlegs 2211 41,974   41,888   86    
MaXXXine 2002 26,545 -17.50% 26,544 208.40 1    
The Lion King 1,223 20,775   20,775   0    
Bad Boys: Ride or Die 1770 19,878 -17.99% 19,854 274.42 24    
Horizon: Chapter 1 2,135 17,130 -39.19% 17,103 190.34 27    
Sound of Hopet 1,883 14,945 -32.20% 14,942 139.68 3    
Indian 2 499 6,471   6,241   230 68  
Kingdom of the Apes 865 3,623 19.37% 3,614 214.25 9    
The Bikeriders 593 3,546 -56.92% 3,534 155.52 12    
Kinds of Kindness 613 3,142 -64.03% 3,142 99.08 0    

 

US Showtime Sample* 7/12 Weekend

*Not all theaters included


Opening weekend showtime comps

Fly Me to the Moon - 47,730 (2,848 TC)

 - Challengers - 52,837 (2,903)

 - Marry Me - 53,179 (3,172)

 - I Wanna Dance - 49,709 (3,156)

 - Dog - 48,752 (3,099)

 - Arthur the King - 46,715 (2,851)

 - Bros - 46,647 (2,995)

 - Joy Ride - 46,097 (2,561)

 

Longlegs - 41,974 (2,211 TC)

 - Bones & All - 45,531 ( 2,384)

 - Prey for the Devil - 45,409 (2,659)

 - The Menu - 45,234 (2,830)

 - Escape Room 2 - 45,204 (2,482)

 - Tarot - 45,125 (2,634)

 - Don't Breathe 2 - 43,638 (2,644)

 - The Invitation - 43,127 (2,655)

 - The Northman - 40,906 (2,890)

 - Malignant - 40,566 (2,998)

 - Talk to Me - 37,809 (2,113)

 

Lion King (Re-release) - 20,775 (1,223 TC)

 - Titanic (re-release) - 27,826 (2,172)

 - Shrek 2 (re-release) - 11,820 (1,281)

 

T-1 Week showtime comps

Twisters (7/17 EA) - 1,339 (1,026 TC)

 - Kingdom of Apes EA - 1,169 (993)

 - Creed 3 EA - 1,188 (945)

 - Top Gun EA - 1,008 (942)

 - Fall Guy EA - 1,253 (1,003)

 

Twisters - 72,804 (2,769 TC)

 - Indiana Jones - 76,495 (2,876)

 - Godzilla x Kong - 74,106 (2,729)

 - Bad Boys - 73,445 (2,584)

 - Morbius - 72,706 (2,812)

 - Transformers - 72,589 (2,647)

 - Eternals - 71,800 (2,852)

 - Ghostbusters FE - 70,344 (2,813)

 

Disciples in the Moonlight (3-Day) - 4,262 (1,066 TC)

 - I Heard the Bells - 4,407 (1,028)

 - Left Behind - 5,344 (1,331)

 

T-2 Week previews comps

Deadpool & Wolverine - 28,339 (2,729 TC)

 - Dr Strange 2 - 31,994 (2,883)

 - Black Panther 2 - 29,365 (2,794)

 - No Way Home - 26,573 (2,835)

 - Thor 4 - 24,565 (2,756)

 - Ant-Man 3 - 23,932 (2,752)

 

T-5 Week previews comps

Alien: Romulus - 6,900 (1,455 TC)

 - Nope - 7,656 (1,929)

 - Fall Guy - 7,376 (2,130)

 - Oppenheimer - 5,849 (2,131)

Movie TC Shows Change Standard Last PSA PLF IMAX 3D
Twisters 3,299 139,793   122,849   16,944 5,825  
Despicable Me 4 3,140 72,015 -29.76% 63,749 425.25 8,266   7,693
Inside Out 2 2,726 47,497 -19.66% 42,559 337.65 4,938 1,120 3,689
Longlegs 2,376 40,579 11.38% 40,561 533.67 18    
A Quiet Place: Day One 2402 34,558 -24.03% 34,487 249.61 71    
Fly Me to the Moon 2761 33,327 -17.01% 33,271 196.99 56    
Bad Boys: Ride or Die 1,407 14,730 -25.90% 14,713 213.87 17    
The Lion King 1148 7,176 -58.22% 7,176 50.79 0    
Horizon 1,072 6,903 -59.70% 6,885 130.26 18    
Oddity 773 6,377   6,377   0    
MaXXXine 896 5,746 -78.35% 5,743 78.03 3    
Sound of Hope 769 5,043 -66.26% 5,043 91.05 0    
Bad Newz 374 3,319   3,319   0    
Disciples in Moonlight 1,018 2,964   2,964   0    

 

US Showtime Sample* 7/19 Weekend

*Not all theaters included


Opening weekend showtime comps

Twisters - 139,793 (3,299 TC)

 - Black Adam - 138,408 (3,499)

 - Across the Spider-Verse - 137,675 (3,484)

 - Venom 2 - 137,474 (3,273)

 - Dune Part 2 - 136,042 (3,378)

 - Morbius - 134,155 (3,418)

 - Godzilla x Kong - 125,011 (3,252)

 

T-1 Week showtime comps

Deadpool & Wolverine - 162,938 (2,946 TC)

 - Dr Strange 2 - 173,506 (3,205)

 - Black Panther 2 - 160,642 (3,118)

 - No Way Home - 135,877 (3,146)

 - Thor 4 - 132,351 (3,087)

 - Ant-Man 3 - 136,131 (3,017)

 

T-2 Week previews comps

Trap - 5,519 (1,707 TC)

 - Elvis - 5,527 (2,328)

 - Crawdads - 5,157 (1,803)

 - Joy Ride - 5,104 (1,564)

 - Black Phone - 4,684 (1,873)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 4,649 (1,980)

 

T-3 Week previews comps

It Ends With Us (EA) - 566

It Ends With Us - 4,703 (1,440 TC)

 - I Wanna Dance - 5,023 (1,735)

 - Elvis - 4,418 (1,813)

 - Easter Sunday - 4,346 (1,586)

 

T-4 Week previews comps

Alien: Romulus - 8,768 (1,952 TC)

 - Nope - 7,792 (1,976)

 - Kingdom of Apes - 9,079 (1,892)

 - Exorcist Believer - 6,296 (1,761)

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Grand Cine Sleeper Hit

Grand Cine

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie TC Shows Change Standard Last PSA PLF IMAX 3D
Twisters 3,299 139,793   122,849   16,944 5,825  
Despicable Me 4 3,140 72,015 -29.76% 63,749 425.25 8,266   7,693
Inside Out 2 2,726 47,497 -19.66% 42,559 337.65 4,938 1,120 3,689
Longlegs 2,376 40,579 11.38% 40,561 533.67 18    
A Quiet Place: Day One 2402 34,558 -24.03% 34,487 249.61 71    
Fly Me to the Moon 2761 33,327 -17.01% 33,271 196.99 56    
Bad Boys: Ride or Die 1,407 14,730 -25.90% 14,713 213.87 17    
The Lion King 1148 7,176 -58.22% 7,176 50.79 0    
Horizon 1,072 6,903 -59.70% 6,885 130.26 18    
Oddity 773 6,377   6,377   0    
MaXXXine 896 5,746 -78.35% 5,743 78.03 3    
Sound of Hope 769 5,043 -66.26% 5,043 91.05 0    
Bad Newz 374 3,319   3,319   0    
Disciples in Moonlight 1,018 2,964   2,964   0    

 

US Showtime Sample* 7/19 Weekend

*Not all theaters included


Opening weekend showtime comps

Twisters - 139,793 (3,299 TC)

 - Black Adam - 138,408 (3,499)

 - Across the Spider-Verse - 137,675 (3,484)

 - Venom 2 - 137,474 (3,273)

 - Dune Part 2 - 136,042 (3,378)

 - Morbius - 134,155 (3,418)

 - Godzilla x Kong - 125,011 (3,252)

 

T-1 Week showtime comps

Deadpool & Wolverine - 162,938 (2,946 TC)

 - Dr Strange 2 - 173,506 (3,205)

 - Black Panther 2 - 160,642 (3,118)

 - No Way Home - 135,877 (3,146)

 - Thor 4 - 132,351 (3,087)

 - Ant-Man 3 - 136,131 (3,017)

 

T-2 Week previews comps

Trap - 5,519 (1,707 TC)

 - Elvis - 5,527 (2,328)

 - Crawdads - 5,157 (1,803)

 - Joy Ride - 5,104 (1,564)

 - Black Phone - 4,684 (1,873)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 4,649 (1,980)

 

T-3 Week previews comps

It Ends With Us (EA) - 566

It Ends With Us - 4,703 (1,440 TC)

 - I Wanna Dance - 5,023 (1,735)

 - Elvis - 4,418 (1,813)

 - Easter Sunday - 4,346 (1,586)

 

T-4 Week previews comps

Alien: Romulus - 8,768 (1,952 TC)

 - Nope - 7,792 (1,976)

 - Kingdom of Apes - 9,079 (1,892)

 - Exorcist Believer - 6,296 (1,761)

Great showtime for Twisters and LongLegs is up !!! Maybe better jump for Friday and Saturday than Insidious 5 or Talk To Me .

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Flip Box Office Gold

Flip

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie TC Shows Change Standard Last PSA PLF IMAX 3D
Twisters 3,299 139,793   122,849   16,944 5,825  
Despicable Me 4 3,140 72,015 -29.76% 63,749 425.25 8,266   7,693
Inside Out 2 2,726 47,497 -19.66% 42,559 337.65 4,938 1,120 3,689
Longlegs 2,376 40,579 11.38% 40,561 533.67 18    
A Quiet Place: Day One 2402 34,558 -24.03% 34,487 249.61 71    
Fly Me to the Moon 2761 33,327 -17.01% 33,271 196.99 56    
Bad Boys: Ride or Die 1,407 14,730 -25.90% 14,713 213.87 17    
The Lion King 1148 7,176 -58.22% 7,176 50.79 0    
Horizon 1,072 6,903 -59.70% 6,885 130.26 18    
Oddity 773 6,377   6,377   0    
MaXXXine 896 5,746 -78.35% 5,743 78.03 3    
Sound of Hope 769 5,043 -66.26% 5,043 91.05 0    
Bad Newz 374 3,319   3,319   0    
Disciples in Moonlight 1,018 2,964   2,964   0    

 

US Showtime Sample* 7/19 Weekend

*Not all theaters included


Opening weekend showtime comps

Twisters - 139,793 (3,299 TC)

 - Black Adam - 138,408 (3,499)

 - Across the Spider-Verse - 137,675 (3,484)

 - Venom 2 - 137,474 (3,273)

 - Dune Part 2 - 136,042 (3,378)

 - Morbius - 134,155 (3,418)

 - Godzilla x Kong - 125,011 (3,252)

Why did Morbius have that many shows :sadfleck:

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TheFlatLannister Box Office Gold

TheFlatLannister

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Dune isn't actually bad comp especially since its over-indexed for you right?

It could be a good comp but ATP difference could throw it off maybe. $40M comp also seems high and Dune didn’t have a good final push in Florida while Deadpool is kind of exploding. 

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Ryan C Sleeper Hit

Ryan C

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Twisters Friday is at 122672/1150641 2060498.54 at this point. I think with robust walkups it can get close to 300K as I mentioned yesterday. Even if it stops at 270K it should hit high teens friday. 

 

Is $20M for the true Friday possible? 

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted

Maaaan, I wonder if I have any comp that would have pointed to 10m+.  There's under-performance and then there's this.  Can't even blame the AMC effect or capacity.  Sacto just didn't care at all for this flick, relative to other markets.

 

...

 

...

 

...

 

Guess it's a good thing it was  a Quick and Dirty, as obviously my model was trying to save me from Sacramento laying an egg. :sparta:

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