The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[justnumbers]

1 hour ago, Eric Ripley said:

Important to note this was polled the same week as D23 and a new trailer dropped, so it does have that kind of inflation. That's also why Mufasa and Snow White are on here, though they could stick around over the next few weeks, especially the former.

 

And Wicked is no slouch in terms of unaided awareness either, though granted that can also be attributed to all the Olympics promotion.

Agree. Obviously Wicked won't be as big as Moana but it is coming to this chart and doing good. This far out.

 

Venom not being as consistent as I thought it would (maybe foolishly)

Edited August 23 by justnumbers

[el sid]

4 hours ago, el sid said:

From yesterday: Blink Twice had 504 sold tickets for Thursday. Best presales in the AMCs in California but also not that bad in the other regions. 

Up very decent 58% since Wednesday. 

 

Comps (always counted on Thursday for Thursday) Thanksgiving (1M from previews) had 365 sold tickets = 1.4M. 

The Invitation (775k) had 218 = 1.8M. 

Smile (2M) had 467 = 2.15M. 

Devil (660k) had 164 = 2M. 

Abigail (1M) had 351 = 1.45M. 

Tarot (715k) had 184 = 1.95M. 

And Trap (2.2M) had 1.170 sold tickets = 0.95M. 

 

Average: 1.65M.

 

In recent years I had more trust in my horror movie presales. But this year, too many films (MaXXXine, The Strangers, Trap...) disappointed walkup-wise.

All I can say is that Blink Twice had a way better last jump than e.g. MaXXXine and is not only popular in the AMCs in California.

 

By the way the movie actually gets some advertisement here in Germany, e.g. spots on TV.

 

 

Ok, I was again completely wrong. Happened too often this year and this was the last time that I track a niche horror film which is only loved by critics. 

 

And that the preview number of The Crow is also even shittier than what we expected is sad too 😔.

Edited August 23 by el sid

[Boxofficerules]

7 hours ago, Eric Ripley said:

 

 

Terrifier 3 T-50: 24.44% Awareness, 40.59% Interest

T-60 Awareness: 60% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 61% chance of 10M

T-60 Interest: 61% chance of 10M

Horror Interest: 69% chance of 10M

Terrifier 3 opening with $10 million would be amazing!

[vafrow]

On 8/21/2024 at 6:51 AM, vafrow said:

 

Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice, T-16, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 66

New Sales since T-21: 5

Growth: 8%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 23

Tickets per Showtime: 2.9

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

Wednesday EA Shows

EA Showtimes: 5

EA Theatres: 5

EA Sales: 65

New sales since T-21: 23

Growth: 55%

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 2/6

Early Evening: 55/8

Late Evening: 9/9

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 14/6

VIP: 43/8

IMAX: 5/6

4DX: 4/3

 

 

Comps (preview to preview)

3.300x AQP:D1 for $22.4M

3.143x BB:RoD for $22.4M

1.886x GB:FE for $8.9M

0.857x Alien Romulus for $5.6M

Average: $13.8M

 

Comps (combined EA and previews)

2.673x Fall Guy for $8.4M

2.015x Twisters for $21.6M

6.550x AQP:D1 for $44.5M

1.701x Alien Romulus for $11.1M

 

Average: $21.4M

 

Sales on previews have slowed to a halt. EA continues a steady rate though. This will probably only really kick up in the final week, but remains in a solid position. 

 

Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice, T-13, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 83

New Sales since T-16: 17

Growth: 26%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 23

Tickets per Showtime: 3.6

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

Wednesday EA Shows

EA Showtimes: 5

EA Theatres: 5

EA Sales: 77

New sales since T-16: 12

Growth: 18%

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 4/6

Early Evening: 57/8

Late Evening: 22/9

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 16/6

VIP: 51/8

IMAX: 8/6

4DX: 8/3

 

 

Comps (preview to preview)

3.773x AQP:D1 for $25.7M

2.594x BB:RoD for $15.2M

1.844x GB:FE for $8.7M

0.654x GxK for $6.5M

0.790x Alien Romulus for $5.1M

Average: $12.2M

 

Comps (combined EA and previews)

2.909x Fall Guy for $9.2M

1.975x Twisters for $21.1M

7.273x AQP:D1 for $49.5M

3.556x GB:FE for 16.7M

1.260x GxK for $12.6M

1.524x Alien Romulus for $9.9M

 

Average: $20.5M

 

I'm probably going to drop comps going forward so it's easier to get updates out. 

 

I'll probably keep Twisters and Fall Guy due to comparability of the EA shows. Outside of that, I think Ghostbusters and Godzilla are probably my best options. But, I'm open to feedback.

[charlie Jatinder]

On 8/21/2024 at 2:27 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice MiniTC2 T-16 days

EA - 991/4504 (14 showings)
Previews - 2070/60888 (212 showings)

Comps

Indy 5 - $16M

It Ends with Us - $22M
Barbie - $17M

 

Alien: Romulus - $33M (adj for under-indexing $28M)

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice MiniTC2 T-13 days

EA -  1277/4504 (14 showings)
Previews - 2407/61302 (215 showings)

 

Comps

Indy 5 - $16.8M

It Ends with Us - $21M
Barbie - $16.8M

Scream VI - $20.2M

 

Friday - 3607/101073 (350 showings)

 

Comps

Indy 5 - $43M

It Ends with Us - $32M
Barbie - $53M

Scream VI - $75M

Edited August 24 by charlie Jatinder

[Flip]

On 8/21/2024 at 11:31 PM, Flip said:

Beetlejuice 2 Previews (T-15) 2 days of sales

 

21 showtimes/201 tix sold (+27)

 

1.35x AQP Day One (T-15) [9.18m]
2.58x Alien: Romulus (T-15) [16.77m]

 

much stronger than the past few days

Beetlejuice 2 Previews (T-13) 2 days of sales

 

21 showtimes/216 tix sold (+15)

 

Missed AQP Day One (T-13) [???]
2.25x Alien: Romulus (T-13) [14.63m]

4.15x IEWU (T-13) [28.01m]
 

IEWU had limited showtimes at this point so that comp will drop

[Relevation]

6 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice, T-13, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 83

New Sales since T-16: 17

Growth: 26%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 23

Tickets per Showtime: 3.6

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

Wednesday EA Shows

EA Showtimes: 5

EA Theatres: 5

EA Sales: 77

New sales since T-16: 12

Growth: 18%

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 4/6

Early Evening: 57/8

Late Evening: 22/9

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 16/6

VIP: 51/8

IMAX: 8/6

4DX: 8/3

 

 

Comps (preview to preview)

3.773x AQP:D1 for $25.7M

2.594x BB:RoD for $15.2M

1.844x GB:FE for $8.7M

0.654x GxK for $6.5M

0.790x Alien Romulus for $5.1M

Average: $12.2M

 

Comps (combined EA and previews)

2.909x Fall Guy for $9.2M

1.975x Twisters for $21.1M

7.273x AQP:D1 for $49.5M

3.556x GB:FE for 16.7M

1.260x GxK for $12.6M

1.524x Alien Romulus for $9.9M

 

Average: $20.5M

 

I'm probably going to drop comps going forward so it's easier to get updates out. 

 

I'll probably keep Twisters and Fall Guy due to comparability of the EA shows. Outside of that, I think Ghostbusters and Godzilla are probably my best options. But, I'm open to feedback.

 

5 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice MiniTC2 T-13 days

EA -  1277/4504 (14 showings)
Previews - 2407/61302 (215 showings)

 

Comps

Indy 5 - $16.8M

It Ends with Us - $21M
Barbie - $16.8M

Scream VI - $20.2M

 

Friday - 3607/101073 (350 showings)

 

Comps

Indy 5 - $43M

It Ends with Us - $32M
Barbie - $53M

Scream VI - $75M

 

34 minutes ago, Flip said:

Beetlejuice 2 Previews (T-13) 2 days of sales

 

21 showtimes/216 tix sold (+15)

 

Missed AQP Day One (T-13) [???]
2.25x Alien: Romulus (T-13) [14.63m]

4.15x IEWU (T-13) [28.01m]
 

IEWU had limited showtimes at this point so that comp will drop

I mean c’mon here. Beetlejuice is easily taking the September OW record and absolutely has the potential to go much higher.

[Flip]

12 hours ago, Flip said:

Beetlejuice 2 Previews (T-13) 2 days of sales

 

21 showtimes/216 tix sold (+15)

 

Missed AQP Day One (T-13) [???]
2.25x Alien: Romulus (T-13) [14.63m]

4.15x IEWU (T-13) [28.01m]
 

IEWU had limited showtimes at this point so that comp will drop

Beetlejuice 2 Previews (T-12)

 

21 showtimes/218 tix sold (+2)

 

Missed AQP Day One (T-12) [???]
2.18x Alien: Romulus (T-12) [14.17m]

3.63x IEWU (T-12) [24.50m]
 

ok day.

[misterpepp]

The Substance on sale Aug 29

[vafrow]

This doesn't automatically preclude NCD, but Cineplex is running their Community Day program on September 14th. They run a variety of second run movies for cheap in the morning or matinees. They also offer discounted concessions. This year, it looks like the following:

 

Paw Patrol and Paw Patrol The Mighty Pups

 

My Spy

 

Everything Everywhere All at Once 

 

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3

 

Last year, they ran this promo in November, so they don't tie it down to a specific date each year. But I'm guessing that they wouldn't do this now if they expected a NCD promotion over the next month or so.

[MovieTime]

21 hours ago, Flip said:

Beetlejuice 2 Previews (T-13) 2 days of sales

 

21 showtimes/216 tix sold (+15)

 

Missed AQP Day One (T-13) [???]
2.25x Alien: Romulus (T-13) [14.63m]

4.15x IEWU (T-13) [28.01m]
 

IEWU had limited showtimes at this point so that comp will drop

 

Not sure I fully understand (new to here) -- what is the difference between Filip's 21 showtimes and 216 tickets, vs.
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice MiniTC2 T-13 days

 

Apparently Mini TC2 is some software for tracking moveis

Are Filips numbers from his own theaters or some other source?

[vafrow]

On 8/24/2024 at 6:00 AM, vafrow said:

 

Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice, T-13, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 83

New Sales since T-16: 17

Growth: 26%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 23

Tickets per Showtime: 3.6

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

Wednesday EA Shows

EA Showtimes: 5

EA Theatres: 5

EA Sales: 77

New sales since T-16: 12

Growth: 18%

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 4/6

Early Evening: 57/8

Late Evening: 22/9

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 16/6

VIP: 51/8

IMAX: 8/6

4DX: 8/3

 

 

Comps (preview to preview)

3.773x AQP:D1 for $25.7M

2.594x BB:RoD for $15.2M

1.844x GB:FE for $8.7M

0.654x GxK for $6.5M

0.790x Alien Romulus for $5.1M

Average: $12.2M

 

Comps (combined EA and previews)

2.909x Fall Guy for $9.2M

1.975x Twisters for $21.1M

7.273x AQP:D1 for $49.5M

3.556x GB:FE for 16.7M

1.260x GxK for $12.6M

1.524x Alien Romulus for $9.9M

 

Average: $20.5M

 

I'm probably going to drop comps going forward so it's easier to get updates out. 

 

I'll probably keep Twisters and Fall Guy due to comparability of the EA shows. Outside of that, I think Ghostbusters and Godzilla are probably my best options. But, I'm open to feedback.

 

Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice, T-12, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 87

New Sales: 4

Growth: 5%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 23

Tickets per Showtime: 3.8

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

Wednesday EA Shows

EA Showtimes: 5

EA Theatres: 5

EA Sales: 78

New sales: 1

Growth: 1%

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 4/6

Early Evening: 61/8

Late Evening: 22/9

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 20/6

VIP: 51/8

IMAX: 8/6

4DX: 8/3

 

Comps (preview to preview)

1.813x GB:FE for $8.5M

0.554x GxK for $5.5M

 

Average: $7.0M

 

Comps (combined EA and previews)

2.845x Fall Guy for $9.0M

2.037x Twisters for $21.8M

3.348x GB:FE for 16.2M

1.051x GxK for $10.5M

 

Average: $14.2M

 

Changing up the comps is what's causing the average to drop. But I think there are better indicators.

 

The challenge still remains on how early access shows throw off comps for things that didn't have them. For that reason, Fall Guy and Twisters are still probably the best comps for me. Both were situations where all five theatres tracked had early access shows. It's worth highlighting that Twisters, being in peak summer was better set up for walk ups, which Beetlejuice won't. It's probably comping too high bec of that. 

 

On that though, I am tracking EA sales separately, but won't bother reporting EA forecast separately because slightly different mix leads to big distortions. Fall Guy is showing $9.0 total, but if it was broken out, it would be $1.5M EA and $12.8M previews since Fall Guy had the bulk of it's sales in EA.

[HummingLemon496]

Beetlejuice $150M OW?

[Flip]

2 hours ago, MovieTime said:

 

Not sure I fully understand (new to here) -- what is the difference between Filip's 21 showtimes and 216 tickets, vs.
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice MiniTC2 T-13 days

 

Apparently Mini TC2 is some software for tracking moveis

Are Filips numbers from his own theaters or some other source?

I track some theaters in NJ and NYC, mini TC2 is much larger and nationwide I presume

[Flip]

23 hours ago, Flip said:

Beetlejuice 2 Previews (T-12)

 

21 showtimes/218 tix sold (+2)

 

Missed AQP Day One (T-12) [???]
2.18x Alien: Romulus (T-12) [14.17m]

3.63x IEWU (T-12) [24.50m]
 

ok day.

Beetlejuice 2 Previews (T-11)

 

21 showtimes/231 tix sold (+13)

 

1.33x AQP Day One (T-11) [9.04m]
2.26x Alien: Romulus (T-11) [14.69m]

3.61x IEWU (T-11) [24.37m]

 

 better

[vafrow]

20 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice, T-12, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 87

New Sales: 4

Growth: 5%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 23

Tickets per Showtime: 3.8

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

Wednesday EA Shows

EA Showtimes: 5

EA Theatres: 5

EA Sales: 78

New sales: 1

Growth: 1%

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 4/6

Early Evening: 61/8

Late Evening: 22/9

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 20/6

VIP: 51/8

IMAX: 8/6

4DX: 8/3

 

Comps (preview to preview)

1.813x GB:FE for $8.5M

0.554x GxK for $5.5M

 

Average: $7.0M

 

Comps (combined EA and previews)

2.845x Fall Guy for $9.0M

2.037x Twisters for $21.8M

3.348x GB:FE for 16.2M

1.051x GxK for $10.5M

 

Average: $14.2M

 

Changing up the comps is what's causing the average to drop. But I think there are better indicators.

 

The challenge still remains on how early access shows throw off comps for things that didn't have them. For that reason, Fall Guy and Twisters are still probably the best comps for me. Both were situations where all five theatres tracked had early access shows. It's worth highlighting that Twisters, being in peak summer was better set up for walk ups, which Beetlejuice won't. It's probably comping too high bec of that. 

 

On that though, I am tracking EA sales separately, but won't bother reporting EA forecast separately because slightly different mix leads to big distortions. Fall Guy is showing $9.0 total, but if it was broken out, it would be $1.5M EA and $12.8M previews since Fall Guy had the bulk of it's sales in EA.

 

Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice, T-11, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Wednesday EA

 

Previews

Total Sales: 89

New Sales: 2

Growth: 2%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 23

Tickets per Showtime: 3.9

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: N

 

Wednesday EA Shows

EA Showtimes: 5

EA Theatres: 5

EA Sales: 84

New sales: 6

Growth: 8%

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 4/6

Early Evening: 63/8

Late Evening: 22/9

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 20/6

VIP: 53/8

IMAX: 8/6

4DX: 8/3

 

Comps (preview to preview)

1.618x GB:FE for $7.6M

0.527x GxK for $5.3M

 

Average: $6.4M

 

Comps (combined EA and previews)

2.703x Fall Guy for $8.5M

2.084x Twisters for $22.3M

3.145x GB:FE for 14.8M

1.024x GxK for $10.wM

 

Average: $13.9M

 

Nothing too exciting.

[charlie Jatinder]

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice MiniTC2 T-11 Days

 

EA - 1430/4504 (14 showings)
Previews - 2635/61303 (215 showings)
Friday - 4090/101073 (350 showings)
Saturday - 3906/100654 (348 showings)

 

Comps
Deadpool 3 - 12M, 24M, 31M

 

Excellent sales, especially for Saturday. For DP3 comps to be that high already is incredible. Other comps;

 

Barbie - 16M, 48M, 69M

IEWU - 20M, 30M, 60M (lol)

Indy 5 - 17M, 43M

[JonathanMB]

So I was looking ahead past Beetlejuice Beetlejuice to see if anything else was selling tickets in my area, and uh...in my area at least Am I Racist? (a new movie from the What is a Woman? weirdos) seems to be selling disturbingly well in my area on September 12 and 13. Has anyone else looked into sales in their area? Seems like it could break out with conservative audiences the way those early D'Souza movies did. 

[filmlover]

14 minutes ago, JonathanMB said:

So I was looking ahead past Beetlejuice Beetlejuice to see if anything else was selling tickets in my area, and uh...in my area at least Am I Racist? (a new movie from the What is a Woman? weirdos) seems to be selling disturbingly well in my area on September 12 and 13. Has anyone else looked into sales in their area? Seems like it could break out with conservative audiences the way those early D'Souza movies did. 

It's selling grossly well near me too though theaters seem to have placed it in smaller auditoriums (Beetlejuice will surely be keeping the bigger ones that weekend and the remaining ones that are almost certainly going to Speak No Evil, which the studio is pushing hard so it might be one to watch out for as well). I'm guessing it gets one decent weekend but its "preaching to the choir" nature assures no staying power.

[Eric the Marxist]

Quorum Updates

Killer's Game T-18: 23.09% Awareness, 44.97% Interest

Speak No Evil T-18: 31.12% Awareness, 49.98% Interest

The Smurfs Movie T-172: 34.17% Awareness, 37.83% Interest

 

1992 T-4: 25.31% Awareness, 46.01% Interest

Final Awareness: 18% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 13% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 47% chance of 10M

Low Interest: 33% chance of 10M

 

Afraid T-4: 27.23% Awareness, 48.48% Interest

Final Awareness: 18% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 33% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 47% chance of 10M

Horror Interest: 43% chance of 10M

 

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice T-11: 73.33% Awareness, 68.5% Interest

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 90M, 83% chance of 100M, 33% chance of 200M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 100M

Final Interest: 100% chance of 30M, 89% chance of 70M, 78% chance of 100M, 11% chance of 200M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 30M, 50% chance of 100M

 

The Front Room T-11: 26.56% Awareness, 44.31% Interest

Final Awareness: 18% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 33% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 47% chance of 10M

Horror Interest: 43% chance of 10M

 

Megalopolis T-32: 19.24% Awareness, 40.04% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

Medium Awareness: 22% chance of 10M

T-30 Interest: 58% chance of 10M

Medium Interest: 67% chance of 10M

 

Venom: The Last Dance T-60: 45.06% Awareness, 53.06% Interest

T-60 Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 82% chance of 40M, 64% chance of 50M, 50% chance of 60M, 36% chance of 70M, 27% chance of 80M, 18% chance of 90M, 14% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 80% chance of 40M, 60% chance of 50M, 40% chance of 60M, 20% chance of 90M

T-60 Interest: 93% chance of 20M, 83% chance of 30M, 71% chance of 40M, 58% chance of 50M, 41% chance of 60M, 32% chance of 70M, 27% chance of 80M, 24% chance of 90M, 22% chance of 100M, 2% chance of 200M

DC/MCU Interest: 100% chance of 20M, 90% chance of 40M, 80% chance of 50M, 70% chance of 60M, 60% chance of 100M