The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[AniNate]

What it does perhaps mean is more periphery audience interest in Transformers One and Wild Robot, which do both have really good buzz so far and have October and November to leg out. Beetlejuice also may benefit from holiday spirit vibes and manage smaller drops through October.

 

 

Edited September 11 by AniNate

[Ryan C]

6 minutes ago, Speedorito said:

Despite the meltdowns over those films bombing, The Fall Guy was an overhyped action-comedy and Furiosa was an Charlize Theron-less prequel to a film that made 400M nearly a decade ago. They’re absolutely nothing like Joker.

 

Honestly, I'm just gonna expect a bunch of big meltdowns over Joker 2's (now unfortunately very likely) failure at this point. 

 

Not to derail the thread, but If those people threw the "cinema is dead" narrative when a Mad Max prequel bombed and when a Ryan Gosling led action comedy flopped, then it would not surprise me in the slightest if it's thrown around again when Joker 2 bombs. 

 

That's why I'm praying that sales can improve these next couple of weeks. If not, we're gonna be in a rude awakening that October 4-6 weekend. 

[Felipe]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

JOKER: FOLIE À DEUX 

 

Thursday 

 

T-23

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
621	2932	129088	2.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-23

(0.624x) of Beetlejuice $6.12M

(0.141x) of Deadpool x Wolverine $5.43M

(0.749x) of Dune 2 $6.96M

Comps AVG: $6.17M

 

ROOF BIG YIKES. Definitely not anywhere close to a $100M opener as things look right now. Not even sure if this is a $60M type of OW. Will almost certainly decrease from Joker 2019 OW

Wouldn't D1 comps be better than T-23?

[THUNDER BIRD]

8 hours ago, ringedmortality said:

it'll be both

One was expected, other....

[TheFlatLannister]

23 minutes ago, Felipe said:

Wouldn't D1 comps be better than T-23?

I will be using T-X comps from here on out so no point to do day 1. It would just throw numbers off since this is more day 2 

[Welcbr12]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Currently running Orlando. Lets see how Joker compares to Flash, Aquaman, Marvels, Blue Beetle

 

Waiting to see (hope it's not too much a disaster) 

[TheFlatLannister]

ORLANDO

JOKER: FOLIE À DEUX 

 

Thursday 

 

T-23

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
109	1261	22984	5.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 10:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-23

(0.792x) of Flash $7.68M

(1.648x) of Aquaman 2 $7.42M

(0.611x) of Marvels $4.03M

(0.274x) of GOTG 3 $4.80M

Comps AVG: $5.98M

 

less than 3/4 of The Marvels is insanity. Just big yikes. Show count also really low in Orlando

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Currently running Orlando. Lets see how Joker compares to Flash, Aquaman, Marvels, Blue Beetle

[HummingLemon496]

2 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

ORLANDO

JOKER: FOLIE À DEUX 

 

Thursday 

 

T-23

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
109	1261	22984	5.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 10:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-23

(0.792x) of Flash $7.68M

(1.648x) of Aquaman 2 $7.42M

(0.611x) of Marvels $4.03M

(0.274x) of GOTG 3 $4.80M

Comps AVG: $5.98M

 

less than 3/4 of The Marvels is insanity. Just big yikes. Show count also really low in Orlando

Off to Reddit it goes!

[Cooper Legion]

1 hour ago, Speedorito said:

If a safe bet like Joker 2 is floundering then the fall/holiday season might be rough waters. Moana 2 is the only film that’s safe.

Highlighted the real issue with this reasoning 

[HummingLemon496]

Just now, Cooper Legion said:

Highlighted the real issue with this reasoning 

I think your 75/190 prediction is optimisitc tbh. 

[Flip]

23 hours ago, Flip said:

Speak No Evil (T-3)

 

7 showtimes/82 tix sold

 

1.12x The Watchers (T-3) [1.12m]

 

Speak No Evil (T-2)

 

12 showtimes/112 tix sold (+30)

 

1.25x The Watchers (T-2) [1.25m]

 

Strong growth, it was surely boosted by the good reviews

[Ryan C]

@TheFlatLannister Just a quick question. Are you gonna track how Speak No Evil is doing or not?

[Flip]

23 hours ago, Flip said:

Joker 2 Previews Day One (T-24)

20 showtimes/204 tix sold

 

.36x Deadpool 3 Day One [13.86m]
2.19x Beetlejuice 2 Day One [21.46m]
1.87x AQP Day One (T-24) [12.72m]
 

This is doing fine for me, show count is a little low. Deadpool had more time to grow, but that would be less walk up-friendly + early presales frontloaded than this, so I think something around what the comp gives right now wouldn’t be surprising, but it’s really contingent on how effective marketing is, if it’s subpar this won’t open above the first one.

Joker 2 Previews Day Two (T-23)

20 showtimes/236 tix sold (+32)

 

Missed Deadpool 3 Day Two [???]
2.38x Beetlejuice 2 Day Two [23.32m]
2.19x AQP Day One (T-23) [14.89m]

 

Tomorrow I’ll switch to T-x for Beetlejuice.

 

This was a good jump, maybe helped a bit by the ad that played during the debate (but possibly the effects of that will be felt tomorrow). Show count is still lower than I would’ve liked. It’s interesting the disparity between my numbers and @TheFlatLannister’s. His T-23 Beetlejuice comp is way under 1x, whereas for me Joker 2 is already equal with where Beetlejuice was at T-11.

[Flip]

On 9/9/2024 at 10:23 PM, Flip said:

Transformers One (T-11) 

 

11 showtimes/55 tix sold (+6)

 

.29x Inside Out 2  (T-11) [3.77m]

Transformers One (T-10) 

 

11 showtimes/59 tix sold (+4)

 

.30x Inside Out 2  (T-10) [3.90m]

 

IO2 really started to ramp up starting tomorrow, hopefully the Transformers ramp up starts after the weekend EA

Edited September 11 by Flip

[Flip]

On 9/9/2024 at 10:21 PM, Flip said:

The Wild Robot (T-17)

 

16 showtimes/34 tix sold 

 

.28x Inside Out 2 (T-17) [3.64m]

.77x Transformers One (T-17) [???]
 

it’s doing ok, probably high 2s-low 3s for previews

 

The Wild Robot (T-16)

 

16 showtimes/50 tix sold (+16)

 

.41x Inside Out 2 (T-16) [5.33m]

1.14x Transformers One (T-16) [???]

 

 

That final trailer must’ve really helped it, I still think it will cool down but this was really strong 

[AniNate]

Big promotional blitz today, all the chains announcing it was on sale and Lupita was interviewed on the Today show

 

Still, eeeeexcellent...

[Rorschach]

On 9/9/2024 at 10:35 PM, Rorschach said:

Speak No Evil (Monday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

 

6 Thursday showings: 10/510 (2% sold)

 

Comps:

Strangers: $1.5M

Watchers: $769k

Trap: $957k

Avg: $1.08M

 

10 Friday showings: 10/1,040 (1% sold)

 

Comps:

Strangers: $1.7M

Watchers: $1.59M

Trap: $2.01M

Avg: $1.77M

 

Thurs + Fri: 20/1,550 (1.3% sold)

 

Comps:

Strangers: $3.29M

Watchers: $2.32M

Trap: $2.94M

Avg: $2.85M

Speak No Evil (Tuesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

 

6 Thursday showings: 14/510 (2.7% sold)

 

Comps:

Strangers: $622k

Watchers: $824k

Trap: $994k

Avg: $813k

 

10 Friday showings: 19/1,040 (1.8% sold)

 

Comps:

Strangers: $2M

Watchers: $2.26M

Trap: $2.4M

Avg: $2.22M

 

Thurs + Fri: 33/1,550 (2.1% sold)

 

Comps:

Strangers: $2.63M

Watchers: $2.9M

Trap: $3.31M

Avg: $2.95M

[emoviefan]

3 hours ago, Ryan C said:

 

Honestly, I'm just gonna expect a bunch of big meltdowns over Joker 2's (now unfortunately very likely) failure at this point. 

 

Not to derail the thread, but If those people threw the "cinema is dead" narrative when a Mad Max prequel bombed and when a Ryan Gosling led action comedy flopped, then it would not surprise me in the slightest if it's thrown around again when Joker 2 bombs. 

 

That's why I'm praying that sales can improve these next couple of weeks. If not, we're gonna be in a rude awakening that October 4-6 weekend. 

And yet we still just had a movie open to 111 ,we have two animated movies  that look like they will do pretty well and joker will still probably open to more than any movie not named ERA's or Five Nights at Freddy's  did last year. Not as good as it could have been but still much better than last year.

[WebSurfer]

1 hour ago, Flip said:

The Wild Robot (T-16)

 

16 showtimes/50 tix sold (+16)

 

.41x Inside Out 2 (T-16) [5.33m]

1.14x Transformers One (T-16) [???]

 

 

That final trailer must’ve really helped it, I still think it will cool down but this was really strong 

wow, imagine if this opens higher than Tone.

[Ryan C]

10 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

And yet we still just had a movie open to 111 ,we have two animated movies  that look like they will do pretty well and joker will still probably open to more than any movie not named ERA's or Five Nights at Freddy's  did last year. Not as good as it could have been but still much better than last year.

 

I completely agree, but I'm sure people will do whatever they can to push a narrative that (even though it's proven to be false) will get clicks and a lot of free media attention. 

 

Though like you said, we just had a pretty good summer (excluding May) and a movie just open to over $100M in September, so even if Joker 2 doesn't improve in pre-sales and opens poorly, we'll hopefully move on to the next big movie quickly instead of waiting for weeks on end.