The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[CheeseWizard]

So, was deadline’s overestimation of TFOne’s opening weekend the reason as to why they now seem to be underestimating Wild Robots opening weekend, by putting it at 20mil?  

Edited 8 hours ago by CheeseWizard

[vafrow]

20 minutes ago, CheeseWizard said:

So, was deadline’s overestimation of TFOne’s opening weekend the reason as to why they now seem to be underestimating Wild Robots opening weekend, by putting it at 20mil?  

 

We like to rag on deadline and other outlets, but they're just trying to throw something out there that's reasonable accurate, and work with what the studios are giving them.

 

If they're being conservative this week, it's probably that original animation is such a crap shoot. This is also expected to leg out, so the studio is also probably fine with a low number circulating for it, because it's not a death sentence for the film.

 

I know we give the publications a hard time when they over or underestimate, but they're putting out a clear published forecast each week even in cases where there isn't a clear outlook. And they're serving different masters by making sure they're keeping studio contacts happy.

[AniNate]

I think there is psychological value in intentionally lowballing stuff. People prefer pleasant surprises over accuracy.

[Tinalera]

On 9/23/2024 at 7:06 PM, vafrow said:

 

I had a weird unexpected sold out show on MTC4 recently for something that I'm convinced was a system glitch. 

 

MTC4 doesn't list something as sold out unless every seat is sold out, which is hard as youll get the odd single seat in there. Only time I see it get close is small capacity VIP theatres.

Okay so this is a thing. Thanks for the heads up on that. LIke I said, it was either that or maybe a group thing (but thats usually 1 screen or showing, not multiple showings over 2 theatres).  Ill see if I can circle back around and see if its back to normal.

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

The Apprentice T-16: 26.03% Awareness, 37.86% Interest

Smile 2 T-23: 37.6% Awareness, 46.25% Interest

Mufasa: The Lion King T-86: 51.39% Awareness, 56.46% Interest

Sinners T-163: 17.39% Awareness, 38.63% Interest

Thunderbolts* T-219: 29.43% Awareness, 47.83% Interest

 

Bagman T-2: 20.1% Awareness, 38.42% Interest

Final Awareness: 17% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 27% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 22% chance of 10M

Horror Interest: 20% chance of 10M

 

Megalopolis T-2: 25.21% Awareness, 36.44% Interest

Final Awareness: 17% chance of 10M

Medium Awareness: 25% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 22% chance of 10M

Medium Interest: 50% chance of 10M

 

The Wild Robot T-2: 43.48% Awareness, 45.63% Interest

Final Awareness: 77% chance of 10M, 46% chance of 20M, 25% chance of 30M

Animation/Family Awareness: 83% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

Final Interest: 45% chance of 10M, 18% chance of 20M, 9% chance of 30M

Animation/Family Interest: 82% chance of 10M, 54% chance of 20M, 18% chance of 30M

 

Venom: The Last Dance T-30: 47.47% Awareness, 54.3% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 81% chance of 30M, 55% chance of 40M, 37% chance of 50M, 33% chance of 60M, 22% chance of 80M, 15% chance of 90M, 11% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 80% chance of 40M, 60% chance of 60M, 40% chance of 90M, 20% chance of 100M

T-30 Interest: 85% chance of 20M, 75% chance of 30M, 65% chance of 40M, 52% chance of 50M, 37% chance of 60M, 27% chance of 70M, 25% chance of 80M, 22% chance of 90M, 20% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Interest: 100% chance of 20M, 89% chance of 40M, 78% chance of 50M, 67% chance of 60M, 56% chance of 100M

 

Here T-37: 15.75% Awareness, 41.48% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

Medium Awareness: 22% chance of 10M

T-30 Interest: 56% chance of 10M

Medium Interest: 67% chance of 10M

[filmlover]

Speaking of The Apprentice, tickets for it are on sale now. Have to admit I'm highly curious how this does (and more specifically, what type of audience it manages to attract).

[Menor the Destroyer]

On 9/24/2024 at 9:00 AM, Menor the Destroyer said:

Wild Robot MTC1

 

Thu: 16565/538252, 3090 shows

 

Fri: 22408/767978, 4351 shows

Thu: 18652/561079, 3252 shows +2087

 

Fri: 27961/839350, 4849 shows  +5453

[YM!]

21 minutes ago, Menor the Destroyer said:

Thu: 18652/561079, 3252 shows +2087

 

Fri: 27961/839350, 4849 shows  +5453

It’s about 84% of KFP4 Thursday and 77% of KFP4’s OD. 3.19 previews + 12m OD would be a 15m Friday, which would put a mid 40s OW on the table using jumps from September animations like Hotel 2. However, KFP4 overperformed at MTC2 so Robot needs to do similar but KFP4 also had an oddly poor IM for a kids movie. Thinking around 3M on a 15-16x multiple.

[Grand Cine]

1 hour ago, Menor the Destroyer said:

Thu: 18652/561079, 3252 shows +2087

 

Fri: 27961/839350, 4849 shows  +5453

Meh for Thu previews , good for Friday .

 

Trolls 3

Previews - 7590/363857 108049.80 2524 shows +1375

Friday - 18989/583642 271189.39 3923 shows +5044

KFP 4 :

Previews(T-2) - 22161/455754 331982.79 3137 shows +3581

Friday - 35874/792963 532176.58 5336 shows +8200

 

I don't take Elemental because at T-1 for KFP4 , @charlie Jatindersaid this

 

Troll 3 FRI MTC 1 was just 18.5%. Never really bothered about looking chain wise share for small animation films but make sense they will underindex heavily in MTC1. Though I guess KFP may be a bit better than Trolls 3.

 

For everyone, Trolls 3 MTC1 comps for KFP 4  are $3.75M THU & $15.5M FRI. 

 

If they end up true, it could be

3.75
15.5
23
16 // 58

 

and the prediction was exactly right .

 

if it plays like KFP4 and Trolls 3 with the pace , i expect 2,6-2,7M for Thursday previews. For Friday ( which is the most important) , i expect at least 10M , but with Imax screens contrary to KFP4, I expect more 10,5-11M

 

For the OW :

2,6/2,7

10,5/11

15,5/16,3

10/10,5

 

38,6/40,5

 

40M stays really possible and maybe with great WOM (maybe a A+ Cinemascore) , the Sat jump and Sun will be slightly better .

Edited 2 hours ago by Grand Cine

[WebSurfer]

Hmm, from what I have been seeing, if there's a good bump in these last two days, we could be looking at an opening within 35-45 million for TWR.

[filmlover]

 

[AniNate]

Too bad we don't have IF or Bad Guys MTC comp, would like to see how the Thurs/Fri proportions matched up there

[YM!]

5 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Too bad we don't have IF or Bad Guys MTC comp, would like to see how the Thurs/Fri proportions matched up there

We do have IF, gimme a sec to find it.

[AniNate]

I do recall IF having some pretty strong presales in the heartland while looking pretty bad on the coasts, whereas this seems to be the opposite; so not sure if that might be a great comparison either but it'd be interesting to see

[fortysixpercent]

IF MTC1 T-2 Previews (per keysersoze123)  14352/303208 251919.45 1899
IF MTC1 Friday-3 (per keysersoze123)  19252/776155 305448.75 4729

Edited 2 hours ago by fortysixpercent

[AniNate]

3 minutes ago, fortysixpercent said:

IF MTC1 T-2 Previews (per keysersoze123)  14352/303208 251919.45 1899
IF MTC1 Friday-3 (per keysersoze123)  19252/776155 305448.75 4729

 

Well that's definitely a more promising comparison

[YM!]

So using IF as a comparison, 2.5M previews with a 12.16M OD to around a 14.7M OD.

[Unfitclock]

There’s a hurricane hitting Florida today and tomorrow so if sales in Florida are weak that’s probably why

[WebSurfer]

Heh, bad weather could once again affect a DreamWorks movie…

[AniNate]

That is another benefit to having a month and a half + to leg out.

 

Puss 1 actually had really strong legs as well despite opening later in October. Basically stayed flat its second week. Way back in 1998 Antz managed 5x legs opening in early October.

 

 

Edited 49 minutes ago by AniNate