The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Mulder]

Even if Joker 2 bombs/disappoints I think the summer was strong enough and now Beetlejuice 2 going to 100+ million on OW that no one'll pull the theaters are dead stuff again. I think at most it might inspire some conversation on if CBMs are dead or not though.

[Cmasterclay]

I'm kinda the theaters are dead type of guy , and I think after the last two months of hot run, saying that theaters are dead because a Joker 2 musical (??? ass idea always) with no zeitgeist or buzz was a disappointment is insane

[WorkingonaName]

Joker 2 flopping will be my Joker moment. 

[Mad Max007]

1 hour ago, Mulder said:

Even if Joker 2 bombs/disappoints I think the summer was strong enough and now Beetlejuice 2 going to 100+ million on OW that no one'll pull the theaters are dead stuff again. I think at most it might inspire some conversation on if CBMs are dead or not though.

Deadpool killed CBMs are dead conversation two months ago.

[AniNate]

R rated musicals are dead... or something idk. Whenever anything flops there's always some kind of a catastrophe narrative that's gotta be pushed.

 

By the time joker opens the overall vibes will probably depend in part on how well the animated movies are holding up, which both are looking to have much better word of mouth. If they're breaking out and holding well that would do a lot to make up for a disappointing joker opening in early October for purposes of trying to catch up with 2023.

 

[Boxofficerules]

There is only one clown people are looking forwards to and it’s Art The Clown.

[Alexander]

I don't think theaters are dead but their audience seem mainly interested in family (usually animated) movies and some Disney stuff now. Ideally with tons of nostalgia. Then we can add local hits. Every country has those. Now even US. I know certain online bubbles like to pretend A24 is some cinema-saviour but it's like with The Bear. 99% online activity 1% real life. So I don't much has changed over last few months.

[AniNate]

3 minutes ago, Alexander said:

I don't think theaters are dead but their audience seem mainly interested in family (usually animated) movies and some Disney stuff now. Ideally with tons of nostalgia. Then we can add local hits. Every country has those. Now even US. I know certain online bubbles like to pretend A24 is some cinema-saviour but it's like with The Bear. 99% online activity 1% real life. So I don't much has changed over last few months.

 

Sure, but even if Joker was a hit it wouldn't help this cause much

[MrFanaticGuy34]

Hope Moana 2 delivers better with pre sales when they start, if Joker 2’s pre sales underwhelms so far. 🤷🏻‍♀️

[charlie Jatinder]

21 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Joker 2 MiniTC2 T-24 Days
 

EA - 132/415 (1 showings)
Previews - 342/53089 (190 showings)

 

Comps (Thursday Only)

Flash - $2.7M

Spider-Verse 2 - $4M

Dune 2 - $4M

Beetlejuice - $7M

Joker MiniTC2 T-23 Days

 

EA - 139
Previews - 446

 

Comps (Thursday Only) for 2 days of sales

Flash - $3M

Spider-Verse 2 - $4.2M

Dune 2 - $4.3M

Beetlejuice - $5.8M

 

Marvels - $4.4M

 

What makes it even worse is that 108 of that 446 is just from 1 IMAX screen, which is way higher lopsided than four out of five above.

Edited September 11 by charlie Jatinder

[CheeseWizard]

2 hours ago, AniNate said:

R rated musicals are dead... or something idk. Whenever anything flops there's always some kind of a catastrophe narrative that's gotta be pushed.

 

By the time joker opens the overall vibes will probably depend in part on how well the animated movies are holding up, which both are looking to have much better word of mouth. If they're breaking out and holding well that would do a lot to make up for a disappointing joker opening in early October for purposes of trying to catch up with 2023.

 

“R-rated musicals are dead” 

that’ll be true until someone decides to make a 50 million dollar 2D animated adaptation of the heathers musical 

 

also really? I would’ve thought the robot movies would have zero bearing on joker. 

[vafrow]

On 9/10/2024 at 4:45 AM, vafrow said:

 

Joker: Folie a Deux, D1, hour 21, T-25, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Monday EA 

 

Total Sales: 45

New Sales: 10

Growth: 29%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 19

Tickets per Showtime: 2.4

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 3/4

Early Evening: 29/9

Late Evening: 13/6

 

Preview Sales by Format

Dolby: 12/7

VIP: 14/6

IMAX: 19/6

 

Comps

22.500x Beetlejuice² for $220.5M

0.662x GxK for $6.6M

0.042x D&W for $1.6M

0.378x Dune 2 (day 2 pull) for $3.8M

0.957x HG: BoSS for $5.5M

Average (excluding B²): $4.4M

 

Monday EA Sales

Total: 42

New sales: 17

Growth: 68%

Showings: 1 IMAX showing in radius 

 

EA Comp

0.140x Dune 2 (Day2) for $0.3M

 

Well, it did go up from yest evening, but not by much. Growth was limited to one large group sale for one showing.

 

It's still lagging Hunger Games, which I wasn't expecting to be a major comp. I'm now hoping it can maintain it's pace.

 

EA sales are the strongest area though. That's the only place where there's any fan urgency to buy tickets it seems due to limited screenings.

 

Joker: Folie a Deux, D2, T-24, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Monday EA 

 

Total Sales: 50

New Sales: 5

Growth: 11%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 19

Tickets per Showtime: 2.6

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 3/4

Early Evening: 28/9

Late Evening: 19/6

 

Preview Sales by Format

Dolby: 17/7

VIP: 12/6

IMAX: 21/6

 

Comps

3.846x Beetlejuice² for $37.7M

0.442x GxK for $4.4M

0.039x D&W for $1.5M

0.420x Dune 2 for $4.2M

0.658x HG: BoSS for $3.8M

1.724x Aquaman 2 for $7.8M

Average (excluding B²): $4.3M

 

Monday EA Sales

Total: 46

New sales: 4

Growth: 10%

Showings: 2 IMAX showing in radius 

 

EA Comp

0.154x Dune 2 for $0.3M

 

Not a good day 2. Some sales disappeared, so it's worse off due to that, but it's fallen against all comps. I added Aquaman to the mix, which it's doing best against, but, not by much.

 

The one positive that can be taken is that this has a slightly longer sales window than many of the comps. Once I switch to T minus, it'll help in some (not all) comps.

 

I also think I'll drop D&W. It's clearly not relevant, and I have inconsistent data for it. I'll be adding The Marvels in a few days, which will already be a struggle.

 

In terms of general opinion, I think this is going to continue to struggle. Just seeing little movement from day 1 to 2 is concerning. There's no controversy around this film to drive general audience interest. I think expectations should be low, as even an opening around $60M that's been suggested as a floor seems very difficult to get to.

[vafrow]

On 9/8/2024 at 9:56 AM, vafrow said:

 

Transformers One, T-12, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Early Access shows 

 

Previews

Total Sales: 13

New Sales: 2

Growth: 18%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 13

Tickets per Showtime: 1.0

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sunday EA Shows

Showtimes: 3

Sales: 39

New sales: 3

Growth: 8%

 

Wednesday EA Shows

Showtimes: 1

EA Sales: 11

New sales: 11

Growth: na

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 0/1

Early Evening: 7/6

Late Evening: 6/6

 

Preview Sales by Format

Dolby: 0/3

Dolby 3D: 6/4

IMAX: 7/4

4DX: 0/2

 

Comps (preview to preview)

0.241x KFP4 for $1.2M

0.317x IO2 for $4.1M

0.116x DM4 for $3.2M

3.250x Garfield for $6.3M

 

Average: $3.7M

 

EA Comps (Sunday only)

3.900x Garfield for $2.2M

 

Biggest thing today was a surge in sales for the Wednesday EA, for which the numbers aren't taken into account for any of the comps. But the EA Sunday comp is already doing well with only Garfield as a benchmark, and if I rolled it into Thursday previews, it would have it at $6-7M.

 

 

 

Transformers One, T-9, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews and Early Access shows 

 

Previews

Total Sales: 13

New Sales since T-12: 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 13

Tickets per Showtime: 1.0

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Saturday EA Shows

Showtimes: 3

Sales: 84

New sales: 45

Growth: 115%

 

Wednesday EA Shows

Showtimes: 1

EA Sales: 15

New sales: 4

Growth: 36%

 

Previews Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 0/1

Early Evening: 7/6

Late Evening: 6/6

 

Preview Sales by Format

Dolby: 0/3

Dolby 3D: 6/4

IMAX: 7/4

4DX: 0/2

 

Comps (preview to preview)

0.151x KFP4 for $0.7M

0.191x IO2 for $2.5M

0.084x DM4 for $2.3M

13.000x Garfield for $25.0M

 

Average: $1.8M (excluding Garfield)

 

EA Comps (Sunday only)

9.900x Garfield for $5.7M

 

Hard to make much sense here of comps. The EA sales are fantastic, clearly that's attracting a crowd. Which is likely causing demand for Thursday to remain low. We'll probably only get a sense once Saturday showings are done.

[filmlover]

Looking forward to Speak No Evil but I always expected its numbers to be closer to Ma than The Black Phone on the "Blumhouse vehicle for a notable actor" scale. It's probably looking at a run similar to Abigail, though.

[Blaze Heatnix]

Any numbers for Hellboy The Crooked Man? Anyway, is it even getting a domestic release date?

[THUNDER BIRD]

Venom 3 The Last Dance doing more than Joker 2 Something Something in French would be entertaining stuff.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

Venom 3 The Last Dance doing more than Joker 2 Something Something in French would be entertaining stuff.

In fairness, it will be the first PG-13 tentpole since Beetlejuice and looking to be the last until *checks schedule*...Captain America in February? (Gladiator will be rated R and the other heavy hitters of the holidays - Wicked, Moana, Mufasa, Sonic - are all aimed directly at families) so it wouldn't be too much of a surprise if it benefitted from that.

[filmpalace]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Looking forward to Speak No Evil but I always expected its numbers to be closer to Ma than The Black Phone on the "Blumhouse vehicle for a notable actor" scale. It's probably looking at a run similar to Abigail, though.

With how much they've marketed this, a run similar to Abigail would be really bad. I had a feeling James Mcavoy playing a creepy character again would ensure a solid opening weekend, but that doesn't seem to be the case. As a fan of the horror genre, it's unfortunate to see this year's movies don't perform that well. Especially considering how well horror has done in other post-covid years. Hoping at least Smile 2 can perform well this year.

[ThomasNicole]

16 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

Speak No Evil had its trailer in front of every single movie this entire summer

I definitely think this maybe is part of the problem lol. There´s so many viral posts mocking this movie over the endlessly amount of times they played the trailer in front of everything

 

That said, horror is always the more likely genre to have insane walkups. Maybe despite the presales suggesting low 10M, good WOM can push it to 15M or so, which should be fine for a cheap movie

[AniNate]

There is something to be said for a movie being overpromoted. It can come across as desperate. Definitely saw that in the final week with Borderlands.