The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, YM! said:

“

According to TheFlatLannister of Box Office Theory, they have never seen anything quite like it. A sample size given has only 239 seats sold, so far, out of 30,000+ available. No showings have been added since demand obviously isn’t there.“

 

https://www.worldofreel.com/blog/2024/9/17/megalopolis-presales-at-historical-lows-3m-opening-weekend

 

@TheFlatLannister you made it

I am not a big fan of articles quoting our thread. Anyway it does not matter to me as I am not tracking anymore 🙂

Anyway congrats to @TheFlatLannister

 

[HummingLemon496]

They should have referred to TheFlatLannister by his Reddit name, u/KingJonsnowIV

[TheFlatLannister]

2 hours ago, YM! said:

“

According to TheFlatLannister of Box Office Theory, they have never seen anything quite like it. A sample size given has only 239 seats sold, so far, out of 30,000+ available. No showings have been added since demand obviously isn’t there.“

 

https://www.worldofreel.com/blog/2024/9/17/megalopolis-presales-at-historical-lows-3m-opening-weekend

 

@TheFlatLannister you made it

errrm wtf

 

Hopefully we get other data from various trackers as I would like to see how its performing elsewhere (Probably terrible)

[vafrow]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am not a big fan of articles quoting our thread. Anyway it does not matter to me as I am not tracking anymore 🙂

Anyway congrats to @TheFlatLannister

 

 

It's not something we should seek, but it feels inevitable. 

 

If you are into the box office at a moderate level, you'll probably end up here at some point. I'm honestly surprised this place isn't referenced more.

 

I think filmmakers Adil and Bilal referencing that they were on Reddit following how Bad Boys was doing was a pretty big example. They didn't cite this site, but Reddit doesn't produce any data. These guys were obsessing. People in that situation go to the data source. They were likely here. But they're not going to reference an obscure website in an interview. Saying Reddit is justified shorthand.

 

If they got here, other people in the industry probably drop by here. We're an increasingly rare thing on the internet. We're a source of data. Everything else is just regurgitating the same information repeatedly.

 

One of the things I wonder is if the people running AI models have found us yet and are scraping our data. I believe we're far away from meeting the expectations that the tech industry says that AI will deliver, but theoretically, if we got there, an AI model with all this data could give someone the tools to enter in what sales are for a movie in their area for an upcoming film and spit out a forecast.

[HummingLemon496]

Wild Robot presales on BOT look to be headed to $3.5M+ THU, and the same internal multiplier as Kung Fu Panda 4 would send it to a $53M OW

 

Joker presales meanwhile look like they’re going to $6-7M THU, which off the same internal multiplier as the first, would take it to a $45-50M OW

 

$50-52M for The Wild Robot, $46-48M for Joker 2, that feels like it

Edited Tuesday at 11:38 PM by HummingLemon496

[VanillaSkies]

2 hours ago, filmpalace said:

The Substance T-2

 

Tickets sold: 21

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 6

 

0,29x Speak No Evil (T-2) – 379K

 

Hoping this one will surprise a bit this weekend.

It is selling quite well in NYC/LA for its EA showings on Wednesday evening. If WOM is good, this could help propel numbers for the weekend. 

Edited Tuesday at 11:20 PM by VanillaSkies

[DAJK]

Didn’t realize we lost @keysersoze123 as a tracker  

[TheFlatLannister]

22 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

Megalopolis 

 

Thursday 

 

T-10

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
160	249	30118	0.83%

^{*numbers taken as of 8:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-10

(0.743x) of Horizon Pt 1 $594k

(0.337x) of Borderlands $445k

Comps AVG: $519k

 

Worst presales start I have ever tracked...Wow

Probably won't be tracking this. Completely pointless 

FLORIDA 

Megalopolis 

 

Thursday 

 

T-9

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
160	283	30118	0.94%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

34

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-9

(0.761x) of Horizon Pt 1 $608k

(0.342x) of Borderlands $452k

Comps AVG: $530k

 

Low show count is the biggest red flag for me. Exhibitors have no faith in this. No further updates since I don't expect much to change until T-0. Improvement in sales today, ever so slightly. 

[TheFlatLannister]

7 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Didn’t realize we lost @keysersoze123 as a tracker  

I think MTC1 changed their site? Hopefully they get the script up and running again 

[ZeeSoh]

34 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Tracking related comment on Reddit from @Relevation:

 

Well let’s take a look at presales

Wild Robot presales on BOT look to be headed to $3.5M+ THU, and the same internal multiplier as Kung Fu Panda 4 would send it to a $53M OW

Joker presales meanwhile look like they’re going to $6-7M THU, which off the same internal multiplier as the first, would take it to a $45-50M OW

$50-52M for The Wild Robot, $46-48M for Joker 2, that feels like it

Why are you posting random reddit comments of our own tracking on our own thread from where the numbers originate in the first place? This isn't the first such post from you. It's perplexing.

[HummingLemon496]

28 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Why are you posting random reddit comments of our own tracking on our own thread from where the numbers originate in the first place? This isn't the first such post from you. It's perplexing.

It's a projection using the data from this thread for where these movies will end up. That IS tracking related, it's not derailment. Derailment would be something like "this guy was correct about X Y Z" which is why I stopped with such posts.

 

Notice how the comment I posted wasn't just "BOT is tracking this movie at X-Y previews." They're actually trying to extrapolate an IM and thereby project an OW from them. So in that case I don't think it's repetitive to post that comment here.

 

And I made sure to credit the person who the comment is from, it is from @Relevation on this forum (he's a consistent poster on this thread, and he's also one of the most knowledgeable and accurate users on here IMO)

Edited Tuesday at 11:39 PM by HummingLemon496

[VanillaSkies]

14 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I think MTC1 changed their site? Hopefully they get the script up and running again 

It’s horrific even as a regular user just trying to look up showtimes at one theatre. 
how do these companies update their sites and manage to make them far worse than they were before?!?

[AniNate]

At AMC Disney Springs, Wild Robot Thursday previews continue to pace ahead of TFOne in nominal sales. 242 to 235 now.

[ZeeSoh]

41 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

It's a projection using the data from this thread for where these movies will end up. That IS tracking related, it's not derailment. Derailment would be something like "this guy was correct about X Y Z" which is why I stopped with such posts.

 

Notice how the comment I posted wasn't just "BOT is tracking this movie at X-Y previews." They're actually trying to extrapolate an IM and thereby project an OW from them. So in that case I don't think it's repetitive to post that comment here.

 

And I made sure to credit the person who the comment is from, it is from @Relevation on this forum (he's a consistent poster on this thread, and he's also one of the most knowledgeable and accurate users on here IMO)

There are multiple people and posts on reddit and elsewhere on the internet doing such projections, that does not mean that there is need of posting them here. We have plenty of people on these boards doing projections and analysis and speculations in this thread and the threads of the actual movies, why would we need a basic level projection from a random reddit post being posted here?

 

I could understand if you were posting new data that was posted on Reddit (or elsewhere) or some major and complex analysis of numbers/projections, but what you are posting is just either a recap of our own numbers or a very basic level of extrapolation/projection based off of our own numbers that pretty much anyone here can do.

 

You are free to post your own analysis and projections as are others like Relevation (who by your own admission posts here regularly anyways). But regurgitating our own numbers with some slight modifications is what is perplexing to me.

 

And lastly to your comments about derailment (not that I accused you of that in the first place). This thread is primarily for tracking and related discussions only. Admittedly the thread does derail every so often and devolves into conversations about a movies OW projections, IM and overall run, but such discussions are supposed to go into that particular movie's dedicated thread. 

[Flopped]

1 hour ago, VanillaSkies said:

It is selling quite well in NYC/LA for its EA showings on Wednesday evening. If WOM is good, this could help propel numbers for the weekend. 

 

Some people will hate it but hopefully the WTF factor leads to buzz and curiosity. But even those who hated it won't be able to deny the incredible level of filmmaking craft and acting talent on display. 

[HummingLemon496]

37 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

There are multiple people and posts on reddit and elsewhere on the internet doing such projections, that does not mean that there is need of posting them here. We have plenty of people on these boards doing projections and analysis and speculations in this thread and the threads of the actual movies, why would we need a basic level projection from a random reddit post being posted here?

 

I could understand if you were posting new data that was posted on Reddit (or elsewhere) or some major and complex analysis of numbers/projections, but what you are posting is just either a recap of our own numbers or a very basic level of extrapolation/projection based off of our own numbers that pretty much anyone here can do.

 

You are free to post your own analysis and projections as are others like Relevation (who by your own admission posts here regularly anyways). But regurgitating our own numbers with some slight modifications is what is perplexing to me.

 

And lastly to your comments about derailment (not that I accused you of that in the first place). This thread is primarily for tracking and related discussions only. Admittedly the thread does derail every so often and devolves into conversations about a movies OW projections, IM and overall run, but such discussions are supposed to go into that particular movie's dedicated thread. 

Ok, that's fair I suppose

[Ryan C]

On 9/16/2024 at 12:54 AM, Ryan C said:

 

The Substance

 

T-2 and T-3

 

Wednesday EA Showings: 353 Seats Sold (44.6% Increase From Last Time)

Thursday: 333 Seats Sold (31.6% Increase From Last Time)

= 686 Seats Sold (38% Increase From Last Time)

 

Taken as of 12:50AM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: I still have no idea if this'll lead to a breakout performance, but it's great to see the buzz this movie has been getting continue to drive these ticket sales. I don't think we'd be seeing these kinds of increases if the movie didn't play at any of the recent film festivals. 

 

Again, I sincerely hope that these numbers mean good things for when this officially opens. 

 

The Substance

 

T-1 and T-2

 

Wednesday EA Showings: 531 Seats Sold (50.4% Increase From Last Time)

Thursday: 489 Seats Sold (46.8% Increase From Last Time)

= 1,020 Seats Sold (48.6% Increase From Last Time)

 

Taken as of 9:10PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: A pretty solid increase from last time. More showtimes are being added for both tomorrow's EA screenings and traditional Thursday previews. 

 

Deadline is currently projecting this to make $3M over the weekend. Not sure if it'll make it there as the theater count is estimated to be around 1,700 and some business over the weekend could be offset by the amount of people seeing it on Wednesday's EA screenings, but if the strong buzz continues to boost ticket sales, maybe it'll get there. 

 

However, if MUBI (the film's distributor) is hearing any of this, they need to try to get this film in as many theaters as possible. A potential $3M weekend in about 1,700 theaters would be great, but imagine how much more could be made if the theater count is expanded to 2,000+. I know it won't come cheap, but with how much awards buzz this has been getting and interest clearly being there, I think this warrants spending the extra cash.

Edited yesterday at 01:15 AM by Ryan C

[Flopped]

3 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

 

The Substance

 

T-1 and T-2

 

Wednesday EA Showings: 531 Seats Sold (50.4% Increase From Last Time)

Thursday: 489 Seats Sold (46.8% Increase From Last Time)

= 1,020 Seats Sold (48.6% Increase From Last Time)

 

Taken as of 9:10PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: A pretty solid increase from last time. More showtimes are being added for both tomorrow's EA screenings and traditional Thursday previews. 

 

Deadline is currently projecting this to make $3M over the weekend. Not sure if it'll make it there as the theater count is estimated to be around 1,700 and some business over the weekend could be offset by the amount of people seeing it on Wednesday's EA screenings, but if the strong buzz continues to boost ticket sales, maybe it'll get there. 

 

However, if MUBI (the film's distributor) is hearing any of this, they need to try to get this film in as many theaters as possible. A potential $3M weekend in about 1,700 theaters would be great, but imagine how much more could be made if the theater count is expanded to 2,000+. I know it won't come cheap, but with how much awards buzz this has been getting and interest clearly being there, I think this warrants spending the extra cash.

 

But aren't Wednesday EA #s rolled into Thursday previews which is part of the weekend? 

[Ryan C]

4 minutes ago, Flopped said:

 

But aren't Wednesday EA #s rolled into Thursday previews which is part of the weekend? 

 

Usually they are, but I'm just concerned that because of those EA screenings (which are selling well) that most of the people who were going to see the film over the weekend already saw it and see no reason to go back. 

 

It's kind of like the same situation with Transformers One where because of all those EA screenings, demand for the actual weekend won't be as strong because a lot of the fans have already seen it. The major difference is that Transformers One is a crowdpleaser that has a chance to attract a wider audience besides the fans. As good as The Substance is (I can't wait to see it this weekend!), it probably won't reach that much of a wider audience. 

 

That could also make the second weekend drop look worse if those EA screenings are added into the Thursday previews. It's not a big deal, but I think it's something worth keeping in check.

[CheeseWizard]

20 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

 

The Substance

 

T-1 and T-2

 

Wednesday EA Showings: 531 Seats Sold (50.4% Increase From Last Time)

Thursday: 489 Seats Sold (46.8% Increase From Last Time)

= 1,020 Seats Sold (48.6% Increase From Last Time)

 

Taken as of 9:10PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: A pretty solid increase from last time. More showtimes are being added for both tomorrow's EA screenings and traditional Thursday previews. 

 

Deadline is currently projecting this to make $3M over the weekend. Not sure if it'll make it there as the theater count is estimated to be around 1,700 and some business over the weekend could be offset by the amount of people seeing it on Wednesday's EA screenings, but if the strong buzz continues to boost ticket sales, maybe it'll get there. 

 

However, if MUBI (the film's distributor) is hearing any of this, they need to try to get this film in as many theaters as possible. A potential $3M weekend in about 1,700 theaters would be great, but imagine how much more could be made if the theater count is expanded to 2,000+. I know it won't come cheap, but with how much awards buzz this has been getting and interest clearly being there, I think this warrants spending the extra cash.

Damn, sounds like it’s doing pretty good. That movie must have some real substance to it