The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Cmasterclay]

I definitely do think that this weekend is Halloween parties galore for the exact younger, diverse demographic that has previously driven big walkups for this franchise! Def think it has an impact.

[lorddemaxus]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

I definitely do think that this weekend is Halloween parties galore for the exact younger, diverse demographic that has previously driven big walkups for this franchise! Def think it has an impact.

Yeah, there’s quite a few going on this weekend around me, but I feel like that shouldn’t impact Thursday numbers much. Might mean a worse multi than we expect tho

[Mulder]

Personally I just think the genre's declining. This is what I expected and I think 2025'll be worse. Venom 2 saved itself by hitching its marketing towards the end to No Way Home like Captain Marvel was hitched to Endgame. There is no giant anticipated MCU film for Venom 3 to be hitched to and I think people are tired of it by now. It'll open better than Joker but continue the ongoing trend we've been seeing.

[Eric is Smiling]

Think the bigger problem is that there's no real hook or any strong trailers or ads that make you hyped up. Even if you discredit the NWH hype machine, the last movie had a cool villain played by a big-name actor to sell it as an epic adventure. I don't even know who the villain in this is. Venom as a horse isn't really as strong a sell, especially when we are past the era where anything with the Marvel logo could get to 80M minimum. It is crazy that sub-50 is a potential debut however. Never expected that.

[Ryan C]

On 10/16/2024 at 2:06 AM, Ryan C said:

 

Venom: The Last Dance

 

T-8

 

Thursday: 2,789 Seats Sold (22.2% Increase From Last Time)

From 16 Theaters

 

Taken as of 1:55 AM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: Ok, this kind of fell back down to earth. We'll still have a better idea of where this is headed by next week, but this is a pretty subpar bump from last week. 

 

Just for comparison's sake, Joker: Folie a Deux had a slightly higher pace at the same point (24.2% to 22.2%). However, despite that one having more tickets sold, I'm more than comfortable betting that this won't have the abysmal word-of-mouth that destroyed any chance of that film even meeting the most pessimistic of expectations. 

 

The story isn't completely written yet, but Deadline's recent article of this tracking at around $70M sounds about right if we expect good walk-up business to come in. Still a good opening, but probably not going to be a breakout. 

 

Venom: The Last Dance

 

T-3

 

Thursday: 3,725 Seats Sold (33.5% Increase From Last Time)

From 16 Theaters

 

Taken as of 7:50 PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: I'm more than aware of the projections for this dropping considerably below where they were last week, but I think we need to wait until Thursday before we make any final judgements on where this is heading. 

 

As far as my market is concerned, I'm not seeing any big red flags yet. I still believe this will be walk-up heavy and that'll get this within the $60M-$70M range. Maybe I'm being too optimistic, but I still remember when Sony projected a $40M opening for Venom: Let There Be Carnage and that exploded to a $90M opening. 

 

This may not be 2021 anymore, but I can't rule out the possibility of this doing a lot better in the final days of its pre-sales or even just during the weekend. 

 

As always, we'll see how this plays out. I sincerely hope this doesn't collapse. 

[iEnri]

Are walk ups being accounted into the predictions for the OW of Venom 3 opening this low? Like, if walk ups are similar to Carnage, will it open above expecations or the potential strong walk ups are already being accounted and this movie can sink even lower without them?

Edited yesterday at 12:09 AM by iEnri

[lorddemaxus]

5 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

 

Venom: The Last Dance

 

T-3

 

Thursday: 3,725 Seats Sold (33.5% Increase From Last Time)

From 16 Theaters

 

Taken as of 7:50 PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: I'm more than aware of the projections for this dropping considerably below where they were last week, but I think we need to wait until Thursday before we make any final judgements on where this is heading. 

 

As far as my market is concerned, I'm not seeing any big red flags yet. I still believe this will be walk-up heavy and that'll get this within the $60M-$70M range. Maybe I'm being too optimistic, but I still remember when Sony projected a $40M opening for Venom: Let There Be Carnage and that exploded to a $90M opening. 

 

This may not be 2021 anymore, but I can't rule out the possibility of this doing a lot better in the final days of its pre-sales or even just during the weekend. 

 

As always, we'll see how this plays out. I sincerely hope this doesn't collapse. 

I think the problem is Venom 2 already showed signs of exploding that Venom 3 seems to not be showing atm.

[John Marston]

It would be awesome if Venom 3 flopped but I’m sure this site was predicting in the 40M range for Venom 2 and it made 90M.

[emoviefan]

I think it's pretty obvious at this point you have to level up or offer something new for the genre now and get decent to great reviews.  The last 3 breakout CBMS were Guardians 3 which used solid reviews and great WOM to offset a so so opening. Across the Spider verse which had great reviews and WOM and Deadpool and Wolverine which gave us the teamup every one wanted and yes got decent reviews.  

[leoh]

23 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

I think the problem is Venom 2 already showed signs of exploding that Venom 3 seems to not be showing atm.

Nope, it didn’t. This is why not only Venom LTBC but also the first Venom (2018) movie both had 60 million projection the day before their release and both made considerably more: Venom (2018) 80M and LTBC 90M. This was due to walk ups, something impossible to track perfectly.

 

Important also to note that both @vafrow and @Flip trackings, both reported earlier today, project more than 9M for Venom OP. 

Edited yesterday at 12:35 AM by leoh

[Ryan C]

Honestly, more so than anything else, I think this movie coming out after both Madame Web and Morbius did it absolutely no favors. 

 

Venom: Let There Be Carnage was only the second film in the SSU (or whatever they call it) and was coming off a massive success (Venom) instead of a massive flop (Madame Web).

 

Yes, the comic-book genre is not how it was in 2021, but I think it's fair to bring up that being apart of a universe that is as disliked as the SSU right now is turning a lot of people off or making them just wait to see this on streaming instead of making a trip to the theater. 

[filmlover]

A sub-$50M opening would be a disaster. Wouldn't be too much of a shock IMO. As @Eric is Smiling pointed out, what is even the hook beyond "hey, we made another one of these?"

[Blaze Heatnix]

Venom 3 needs good reviews. Tonight we'll see social embargo being lifted. Reviews will probably give it a boost. Previous movies weren't presale heavy, either.

 

Venom says "We are Venom" but also needs to say "We need good reviews"!

[Shawn Robbins]

47 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I definitely do think that this weekend is Halloween parties galore for the exact younger, diverse demographic that has previously driven big walkups for this franchise! Def think it has an impact.

 

42 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Personally I just think the genre's declining. This is what I expected and I think 2025'll be worse. Venom 2 saved itself by hitching its marketing towards the end to No Way Home like Captain Marvel was hitched to Endgame. There is no giant anticipated MCU film for Venom 3 to be hitched to and I think people are tired of it by now. It'll open better than Joker but continue the ongoing trend we've been seeing.

 

38 minutes ago, Eric is Smiling said:

Think the bigger problem is that there's no real hook or any strong trailers or ads that make you hyped up. Even if you discredit the NWH hype machine, the last movie had a cool villain played by a big-name actor to sell it as an epic adventure. I don't even know who the villain in this is. Venom as a horse isn't really as strong a sell, especially when we are past the era where anything with the Marvel logo could get to 80M minimum. It is crazy that sub-50 is a potential debut however. Never expected that.

 

All very valid points here. Could see legs being stronger than usual with the Halloween party thing in mind + no real competition for awhile. Kind of reminds me of Puss In Boots 1 for those of us oldies. That thing legged out like crazy after a late October opening, even by animation standards.

[Ryan C]

5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

A sub-$50M opening would be a disaster. Wouldn't be too much of a shock IMO. As @Eric is Smiling pointed out, what is even the hook beyond "hey, we made another one of these?"

 

The hook would normally be "this is the grand finale to this trilogy" but I guess that's not really moving the needle in terms of its prospects financially. 

[Shawn Robbins]

Also, to bake in the whole "walk-up factor", looking more and more at pacing for movies like Bad Boys 4, Wild Robot, Panda 4, Ghostbusters FE and AQPD1 versus Venom 3. The average trendline is still putting V3 under $65m with a floor about $20m lower.

 

I'm leaning mid 50s at this stage but let's see how the week goes.

[AniNate]

On 10/14/2024 at 11:53 AM, AniNate said:

As promised...

 

11/21 PREVIEWS

 

GLADIATOR II
ROBINSON TOWNSHIP	53
VALLEY VIEW	36
TINSELTOWN NORTH CANTON	17
NORTH HILLS	14
TINSELTOWN BOARDMAN	13
BISTRO NORTH CANTON	9
STRONGSVILLE	7
MONROEVILLE MALL	6
CUYAHOGA FALLS	5
TOWNSHIP MARKETPLACE	2
WOOSTER	0

 

Average per theater: 14.7

 

WICKED
NORTH HILLS	251
ROBINSON TOWNSHIP	194
TINSELTOWN NORTH CANTON	187
STRONGSVILLE	90
VALLEY VIEW	76
TINSELTOWN BOARDMAN	63
CUYAHOGA FALLS	52
BISTRO NORTH CANTON	28
MONROEVILLE MALL	25
TOWNSHIP MARKETPLACE	19
WOOSTER	2

 

 

Average per theater: 89.7

 

 

Gladiator got a primetime XD showing at Valley View and Robinson, and that's making a big difference in early presales at those theaters. 

 

Probably won't track all of these theaters the whole way. Strongsville looking like the average barometer for Wicked starting out and North Hills for Gladiator. Lack of a primetime XD for Gladiator at North Hills brought it way back to the pack it seems, usually a hugely presale-heavy theater.

 

 

11/21 PREVIEWS

 

GLADIATOR II
ROBINSON TOWNSHIP	58
VALLEY VIEW	50
TINSELTOWN NORTH CANTON	19
NORTH HILLS	18
TINSELTOWN BOARDMAN	13
BISTRO NORTH CANTON	9
STRONGSVILLE	9
MONROEVILLE MALL	7
CUYAHOGA FALLS	5
TOWNSHIP MARKETPLACE	3
WOOSTER	0

 

Average per theater: 17.4 (+18.4%)

 

WICKED
NORTH HILLS	279
ROBINSON TOWNSHIP	249
TINSELTOWN NORTH CANTON	213
VALLEY VIEW	124
STRONGSVILLE	104
TINSELTOWN BOARDMAN	88
CUYAHOGA FALLS	80
BISTRO NORTH CANTON	56
TOWNSHIP MARKETPLACE	38
MONROEVILLE MALL	28
WOOSTER	2

 

Average per theater: 115 (+28.2%)

 

 

Ok yeah, Wicked looks like it's gonna take off. This doesn't include Wednesday EA or the Super Ticket screening at Valley View, which is sold out.

 

[lorddemaxus]

Looking back, Venom 2 REALLY exploded on Tuesday before release. I mean even on the Monday before that it showed signs that this isn’t, but I guess all the walkup-cels got one more day to prove they’re right

[vafrow]

19 minutes ago, leoh said:

Nope, it didn’t. This is why not only Venom LTBC but also the first Venom (2018) movie both had 60 million projection the day before their release and both made considerably more: Venom (2018) 80M and LTBC 90M. This was due to walk ups, something impossible to track perfectly.

 

Important also to note that both @vafrow and @Flip trackings, both reported earlier today, project more than 9M for Venom OP. 

 

I've thrown out more red flags on the volatility of my market than a matador. I would caution in putting too much hope into it just yet. Especially as I observed a slow down this morning. It's too early to tell what the update will look like tomorrow. Nothing too crazy in either direction at this point.

 

Without the major chain wide data like an MTC1 pull it's hard to get a definitive read here, but when I'm an outlier to the consensus, 9/10 it's my sample over or under indexing.

[emoviefan]

20 minutes ago, AniNate said:

 

11/21 PREVIEWS

 

GLADIATOR II
ROBINSON TOWNSHIP	58
VALLEY VIEW	50
TINSELTOWN NORTH CANTON	19
NORTH HILLS	18
TINSELTOWN BOARDMAN	13
BISTRO NORTH CANTON	9
STRONGSVILLE	9
MONROEVILLE MALL	7
CUYAHOGA FALLS	5
TOWNSHIP MARKETPLACE	3
WOOSTER	0

 

Average per theater: 17.4 (+18.4%)

 

WICKED
NORTH HILLS	279
ROBINSON TOWNSHIP	249
TINSELTOWN NORTH CANTON	213
VALLEY VIEW	124
STRONGSVILLE	104
TINSELTOWN BOARDMAN	88
CUYAHOGA FALLS	80
BISTRO NORTH CANTON	56
TOWNSHIP MARKETPLACE	38
MONROEVILLE MALL	28
WOOSTER	2

 

Average per theater: 115 (+28.2%)

 

 

Ok yeah, Wicked looks like it's gonna take off. This doesn't include Wednesday EA or the Super Ticket screening at Valley View, which is sold out.

 

If a person were to look at this they would think Gladiator 2 is in trouble but it's just because Wicked is so massive. And Gladiator 2 i will play to the more casual walkup audience.