The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[excel1]

Too soon to say SUPERMAN and FANTASTIC FOUR should open on the same day next July?

[emoviefan]

26 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

 

The hook would normally be "this is the grand finale to this trilogy" but I guess that's not really moving the needle in terms of its prospects financially. 

Honestly I think the studios need to get their shit together when it comes to marketing.  It's like hey it's another Venom movie the audiences will come. They liked the first two. We do not even have to try. Yeah you do.

[AniNate]

Gladiator is also having fairly reasonable growth for a movie with more than a month to go. It's just not Wicked. 

 

Thinking we just might get that nu Barbenheimer tbh, which we could use with this inauspicious Venom data

[leoh]

8 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

I've thrown out more red flags on the volatility of my market than a matador. I would caution in putting too much hope into it just yet. Especially as I observed a slow down this morning. It's too early to tell what the update will look like tomorrow. Nothing too crazy in either direction at this point.

 

Without the major chain wide data like an MTC1 pull it's hard to get a definitive read here, but when I'm an outlier to the consensus, 9/10 it's my sample over or under indexing.

You’re not the only one, Flip is also seeing more than 9 million for OD as well.

 

BTW, I still remember when you were the first (and only one) who was seeing Bob Marley making over 14 million opening day while everyone else was still saying high single digits would be a win. 😄 anyways Thursday we’ll see how great Venom The Last Dance walk ups will be.

[emoviefan]

3 minutes ago, excel1 said:

Too soon to say SUPERMAN and FANTASTIC FOUR should open on the same day next July?

Sure.... Actually There are reports that Marvel wants more time to work on Fantastic Four so a delay to Nov is looking very possible. That would give Superman some breathing room instead of being crammed between that and Jurassic. 

[Cmasterclay]

When Venom 3 first started to promote itself I was predicting a big drop mostly because of the lack of hook - Venom 2 had BOTH the NWH hype and Carnage, an iconic villain, so this seemed like a naturally major drop. But then with the trailer views and the escapism in the middle of election season/Joker flopping season I started to buy back in on it as the kind of simple, light fare that tends to break out these days. Should have stuck with initial instinct.

[Shawn Robbins]

28 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Sure.... Actually There are reports that Marvel wants more time to work on Fantastic Four so a delay to Nov is looking very possible. That would give Superman some breathing room instead of being crammed between that and Jurassic. 

Given the inevitability Blade will leave November 2025 "officially", this honestly could make a lot of sense from a scheduling perspective. Marvel doesn't need to rush FF (the opposite, actually), and having all 3 of their 2025 tentpoles open between February and July always seemed unnecessary in the current climate of comic book movie performances.

 

It's not the best potential scenario for summer box office to lose something like FF, but, it would be productive for November and both Superman and FF.

[vafrow]

Red One EA shows are up for sale on MTC4. Shows are Sunday afternoon. It's playing in 33 locations across MTC4 chain (155 locations).

 

I won't be tracking this one. With Glicked already being a robust track, and Moana also expected to be time intensive, I'm not curious enough about the performance here to spend much time on it.

[leoh]

7 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

When Venom 3 first started to promote itself I was predicting a big drop mostly because of the lack of hook - Venom 2 had BOTH the NWH hype and Carnage, an iconic villain, so this seemed like a naturally major drop. But then with the trailer views and the escapism in the middle of election season/Joker flopping season I started to buy back in on it as the kind of simple, light fare that tends to break out these days. Should have stuck with initial instinct.

Looking forward to knowing your thoughts on Sunday 😄

Edited yesterday at 01:51 AM by leoh

[Ryan C]

Just now, Shawn Robbins said:

Given the inevitability Blade will leave November 2025 "officially", this honestly could make a lot of sense. It's not the best news for summer box office, but, it would be productive for November and both Superman and FF.

 

It does make sense for Fantastic Four to move to November, but I'm sure Disney and Marvel are looking at how well Deadpool and Wolverine did this past July and really want to open FF on that same date in 2025 because it's proven to work for them. Not only that, but July MCU movies (with the expection of Black Widow) have proven to be very leggy, so if Fantastic Four is good, it can ride a wave of positive buzz/word-of-mouth until Labor Day. 

 

That's why I think Disney would keep the film in July instead of delaying it to November. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Frankly Venom 3 opening low after two not so greatly received previous part makes total sense, especially in current climate of CBMs bombing.

[Shawn Robbins]

2 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

 

It does make sense for Fantastic Four to move to November, but I'm sure Disney and Marvel are looking at how well Deadpool and Wolverine did this past July and really want to open FF on that same date in 2025 because it's proven to work for them. Not only that, but July MCU movies (with the expection of Black Widow) have proven to be very leggy, so if Fantastic Four is good, it can ride a wave of positive buzz/word-of-mouth until Labor Day. 

 

That's why I think Disney would keep the film in July instead of delaying it to November. 

 

My devil's advocate counter-argument here is that FF could easily end up more of an Ant-Man 2 type of performer in late July than either of the Spider-Man movies (we all know Deadpool & Wolvy was a unique run so I won't use that as a comp). And I'm also kinda bullish on Superman, so getting away from that feels smart IMHO.

[AniNate]

If they did decide to delay it, wouldn't be surprised if it's just announced with a positive spin at D23 Brazil. They'd just say "Fantastic Four! In theaters November 2025"

[Pinacolada]

55 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Honestly I think the studios need to get their shit together when it comes to marketing.  It's like hey it's another Venom movie the audiences will come. They liked the first two. We do not even have to try. Yeah you do.

Yeah it's shocking how little they've done with this movie imo. Tom Hardy clearly doesn't like to promote much, but he's done so little with this movie. Some interviews r finally starting to come out but it's LATE 

[lorddemaxus]

11 minutes ago, Pinacolada said:

Yeah it's shocking how little they've done with this movie imo. Tom Hardy clearly doesn't like to promote much, but he's done so little with this movie. 

You should take a look at his insta stories lol (edit: ok not much going on today but there was some really weird venom related stuff on there yesterday)

Edited yesterday at 02:21 AM by lorddemaxus

[Ryan C]

3 minutes ago, AniNate said:

If they did decide to delay it, wouldn't be surprised if it's just announced with a positive spin at D23 Brazil. They'd just say "Fantastic Four! In theaters November 2025"

 

I feel like they would have to release a trailer with a new release date if they wanted to put a positive spin on the whole thing. 

 

Just saying it moved from November to July and not even at the actual D23 event wouldn't do much to move the needle, but I guess we won't know until we know. 

[Flip]

5 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

which location?

Tracking NYC/NJ

[AniNate]

6 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

Just saying it moved from November to July and not even at the actual D23 event wouldn't do much to move the needle, but I guess we won't know until we know. 

 

Don't want to derail the thread anymore but it is as much an "actual" event as the California one.

 

[Flip]

On 10/17/2024 at 9:20 PM, Flip said:

Wicked 2 (T-35) 3 days of sales

 

15 showtimes/613 tix sold (+28)

 

Missed Deadpool 3 (T-35) [???]
7.39x Gladiator 2 (T-35) [???]

 

not only are the raw numbers very strong, but so is the pace which is a little surprising.

Wicked 2 (T-31) 4 days of sales

 

15 showtimes/638 tix sold (+25)

 

Missed Deadpool 3 (T-31) [???]
5.8x Gladiator 2 (T-31) [???]

 

pace has slowed down a lot, the weekend was weaker than I would’ve expected. Over the last 4 days it actually sold less tickets than Gladiator, so that’s an interesting trend to follow.

[Flip]

22 hours ago, Flip said:

Gladiator 2 (T-32) 3 days of sales

 

14 showtimes/103 tix sold (+20)

1.49x AQP Day One (T-28) [10.13m]
2.34x Twisters (T-32) [17.55m]
 

This had a very strong weekend of sales. maybe it might do better far out (up to T-20) in terms of pace than Twisters

Gladiator 2 (T-31) 

 

14 showtimes/110 tix sold (+7)

Missed AQP Day One (T-31) [???]

Missed Twisters (T-31) [???]

1.18x Beetlejuice 2 (T-31) [11.56m]

 

Unusually strong day