The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[katnisscinnaplex]

20 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Taylor Swift	T-43	Jax	5	45	2,355	2,355	7,499	31.40%
		Phx	6	45	2,908	2,908	8,375	34.72%
		Ral	7	50	2,530	2,530	7,025	36.01%
	Total		18	140	7,793	7,793	22,899	34.03%

 

The two Jacksonville theaters opened and another Raleigh location added shows.  Didn't update any of the others so this is still the 2hr update for all theaters.  

 

Taylor Swift (2 hrs) comps against first day movies

 - NWH (33hrs) - .552x (27.62m)

 - Dr Strange 2 - 1.298x (46.73m)

 - Batman - 2.396x (51.75m)

 

 

Comps against T-0 morning sales

 - Super Mario - .721x (22.84m)

 - Barbie - .819x (17.36m)

 - Space Jam - 1.758x (23.03m)

 

If another ticket doesn't get sold it would comp out around 20m.  And that's before ATP adjustment...

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Taylor Swift	T-42	Jax	6	53	1,077	3,432	9,190	37.34%
		Phx	6	53	3,676	6,584	9,353	70.39%
		Ral	8	63	1,469	3,999	8,235	48.56%
	Total		20	169	6,222	14,015	26,778	52.34%

 

Started this run at around 25 hrs.

 

Taylor Swift first day comps

 - NWH - .993x (49.67m)

 - Dr Strange 2 - 2.335x (84m)

 - Batman - 4.308x (93.06m)

 - Every other movie - 120m+

 

Okay, okay, settle down.  Already at 52% capacity with most shows down to handicap seating.  Obviously the best start imaginable, but it's not possible to compare to movies with 4x+ the number of shows. 

 

Comps against T-0 sales

 - Super Mario - 1.296x (41.08m)

 - Space Jam - 3.162x (41.42m)

 - Barbie - 1.473x (31.23m)

 - Paw Patrol - 9.982x (45.15m)

 - My Hero Academia - 8.63x (24.9m)

 - Demon Slayer - 5.17x (21.82m)

 

If I had to guess right now, I'd say this is looking at around 25m OD.  If it was a full day of shows I would go higher, but capacity is very tight.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

14 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

65m+ sat/sun could be in play 🙂

Each?

[keysersoze123]

Just now, XXR's Eras Tour said:

Each?

yes. That is why I am in the club. I am expecting crazy sunday due to insane spillover.

[vale9001]

3 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Taylor Swift	T-42	Jax	6	53	1,077	3,432	9,190	37.34%
		Phx	6	53	3,676	6,584	9,353	70.39%
		Ral	8	63	1,469	3,999	8,235	48.56%
	Total		20	169	6,222	14,015	26,778	52.34%

 

Started this run at around 25 hrs.

 

Taylor Swift first day comps

 - NWH - .993x (49.67m)

 - Dr Strange 2 - 2.335x (84m)

 - Batman - 4.308x (93.06m)

 - Every other movie - 120m+

 

Okay, okay, settle down.  Already at 52% capacity with most shows down to handicap seating.  Obviously the best start imaginable, but it's not possible to compare to movies with 4x+ the number of shows. 

 

Comps against T-0 sales

 - Super Mario - 1.296x (41.08m)

 - Space Jam - 3.162x (41.42m)

 - Barbie - 1.473x (31.23m)

 - Paw Patrol - 9.982x (45.15m)

 - My Hero Academia - 8.63x (24.9m)

 - Demon Slayer - 5.17x (21.82m)

 

If I had to guess right now, I'd say this is looking at around 25m OD.  If it was a full day of shows I would go higher, but capacity is very tight.

 

 

25M every day? 🤣

[vale9001]

Why on the first day screenings are only from 6 PM? Could be related to fact that it was supposed to be The Exorcist first day? With any other big release that day what is is the reason for a kind of previews day on friday? (even worst cause now thursday previews are from 3 PM for every movie). Maybe they could add more shows now.

Edited September 1, 2023 by vale9001

[keysersoze123]

Friday is at 416K in the morning. Its insane how much its growing after its initial rush. Should hit 10m soon and that will be close to DS2 final number at MTC1(10.25m) !!!

[Madhuvan]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Friday is at 416K in the morning. Its insane how much its growing after its initial rush. Should hit 10m soon and that will be close to DS2 final number at MTC1(10.25m) !!!

I genuinely think MTC1 will overindex a lot here due to the all headlines 

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, Madhuvan said:

I genuinely think MTC1 will overindex a lot here due to the all headlines 

Initially it will dominate presales but long term I expect it to under index as ATP increase at other chains are way higher than MTC1. We will know close to release.

[vale9001]

i have noticed Barbie has "imax previews" on thursday sep 21. 10th biggest thursday ever is coming? 😄

[Cap]

14 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Its insane how much its growing after its initial rush.

As some else pointed out in the Eras thread, like 40M tried to get tickets to Eras Tour. There is pent up demand from people who are not movie goers. We always talk about the general audience and what do they want from a movie or what are they going to think. This is kind of a general audience as you’re going to get. There’s going to be tons of people going just because of Taylor Swift, I have not gone to a movie theater in years, it will not go to the movie theater after this for years.

 

Because the kicker is despite some of us baulking at the $20 admission, that is dirt cheap. Her vinyl albums go for like $35-40. The ticket prices were like $200. 
 

I don’t even like her, and I’m taking my niece and her two friends. I get to be a super cool aunt, and there’s no FOBO.
 

ETA:

 

and because this is the tracking thread, my local Regal is looking like:

 

Friday:

1 PLF - Sold Out

4 Ref - 1 Sold Out; 2 Front Row Only; 1 99% full

 

[ringedmortality]

3 minutes ago, Cap said:

I don’t even like her

 

Doesn't this betray your own people

[Nova]

19 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Friday is at 416K in the morning. Its insane how much its growing after its initial rush. Should hit 10m soon and that will be close to DS2 final number at MTC1(10.25m) !!!

I don’t anticipate the rush to buy tickets to die down anytime soon. In fact, all these headlines with it breaking records and showtimes selling out rather quickly is gonna make people wanna buy their tickets sooner rather than later. The people who missed out on the real concert aren’t going to want to miss out on this. 

 

Also, I expect more families to attend this than people expect. A lot of young kids love taylor and unfortunately a lot of them couldn’t go to concert for whatever reason. My good buddy’s wife is planning a whole event for this thing for their kids and friends kids. They’re planning to dress up, make friendship bracelets beforehand and go as group. I imagine lots of families will be doing that as well. 

 

The only thing that will limit this movie’s potential especially on opening weekend is showtimes 

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Soon they’re gonna have to start adding weekday showtimes for Eras with the current demand right?

[TheDarkKnightOfSteel]

Imagine if Eras Tour manages to overthrow Barbie. lol That would be one of the the craziest things to happen in the industry’s history. Maybe the craziest. I mean this thing will run for a month, right? Plenty of time for her fans to go and see it like a hindered time each…

Edited September 1, 2023 by TheDarkKnightOfSteel

[vale9001]

1 minute ago, TheDarkKnightOfSteel said:

Imagine if Eras Tour manages to overthrow Barbie. lol

it's clear for what happened in the full first week Barbie would have made near to 200M if not for Oppenhaimer in the same weekend but if @keysersoze123 predictions are kinda true we are really near to its real weekend 😅

[Nova]

4 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

Soon they’re gonna have to start adding weekday showtimes for Eras with the current demand right?

No. Keeping it playing on the weekends leaves it more feeling like an event. They can always expand it past the 4 weekends it’s playing. 

[TwoMisfits]

15 minutes ago, Nova said:

I don’t anticipate the rush to buy tickets to die down anytime soon. In fact, all these headlines with it breaking records and showtimes selling out rather quickly is gonna make people wanna buy their tickets sooner rather than later. The people who missed out on the real concert aren’t going to want to miss out on this. 

 

Also, I expect more families to attend this than people expect. A lot of young kids love taylor and unfortunately a lot of them couldn’t go to concert for whatever reason. My good buddy’s wife is planning a whole event for this thing for their kids and friends kids. They’re planning to dress up, make friendship bracelets beforehand and go as group. I imagine lots of families will be doing that as well. 

 

The only thing that will limit this movie’s potential especially on opening weekend is showtimes 

 

Why I think it will pull families to an enormous degree...(while also getting all the millennial and older fans)...

 

Mom and Dad can get nervous taking Sally 8, 9, 10 year old to a concert with 10s of thousands of people smashed in, the traffic, time, and annoyance to get to the stadiums, the late night, the safety procedures to get in, Sally's 5 year old brother getting antsy, the unexpected enormous crowd reactions, etc...even without the insanity of trying to ever get the tickets.

 

This gives that mom and dad the ability to bring Sally to a very small version of that same crowd experience for so much less money (and at a certain monetary price), so much less stress, so much closer to their house, so much less onsite time wasted, so much less crowd chaos.  It's a controlled safe, small environment that will still be everything the 10 year old wants - Taylor and screaming excited fans decked out for the fun and her music.  It can be a whole day of fun and prep in a managed, small way.

 

It's why I said $100M after an hour yesterday - this was it.  This was the perfect price point and the perfect release.  Fall weekend fun for Taylor viewing parties under $20/ticket.  If my girls were younger, I'd have been buying.  Heck, I asked my music son if he wanted to go b/c did I mention, it was the perfect price point and timing.

 

For tracking, its only limit will be its showings for that weekend, and that it only has 2.5 days vs the regular release 3.5+ days.

[filmlover]

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 8/31/23)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
9/8/2023	My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3	$8,000,000 – $13,000,000		$24,000,000 – $43,000,000		Focus Features
9/8/2023	The Nun II	$30,000,000 – $44,000,000		$70,000,000 – $95,000,000		Warner Bros. Pictures
9/15/2023	A Haunting in Venice	$11,000,000 – $16,000,000		$37,000,000 – $57,000,000		Disney / 20th Century Studios
9/15/2023	Amerikatsi					Variance Films / Everest Films
9/15/2023	Camp Hideout					Roadside Attractions
9/15/2023	Dumb Money (Platform LA / NY)					Sony Pictures / Columbia
9/22/2023	Barbie (IMAX Release)					Warner Bros. Pictures
9/22/2023	Dumb Money (Limited Expansion)					Sony Pictures / Columbia
9/22/2023	Expend4bles	$13,000,000 – $18,000,000		$31,000,000 – $45,000,000		Lionsgate
9/29/2023	The Creator	$15,000,000 – $24,000,000		$40,000,000 – $85,000,000		20th Century Studios
9/29/2023	Dumb Money (Moderate Expansion)					Sony Pictures / Columbia
9/29/2023	PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie	$10,000,000 – $15,000,000		$30,000,000 – $48,000,000		Paramount Pictures
9/29/2023	Saw X	$10,000,000 – $15,000,000		$22,000,000 – $35,000,000		Lionsgate

 

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-the-creator-paw-patrol-the-mighty-movie-and-saw-x/

[dobrevv]

'Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour' Industry First Day Presales $37M+, Bigger Than 'Force Awakens'; Concert Pic Headed For $70M+ Opening

https://deadline.com/2023/09/taylor-swift-eras-tour-film-presales-box-office-projection-1235534031/

Edited September 1, 2023 by dobrevv

[keysersoze123]

Taylor Swift Eras Tour MTC1

Friday(10/20) - 64212/834282 1298844.68 4678 shows

Sat (10/21) - 78950/827370 1634958.50 4692 shows

 

I dont think I have seen 2nd weekend sales being this big this early. Its going to have really good 2nd weekend hold as well. 2nd Friday seem to be playing full day as well.