The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[emoviefan]

3 minutes ago, Curiouser and Curiouser said:

I don’t think so. 25-35 is impressive for a movie like this, which isn’t a franchise and is R rated and long. I would love for it to get closer to 40 but that seems unlikely. 

Yeah not sure what Keyser is seeing like you said.  Maybe he is seeing sub 3 preview trends and sub 25 opening. That would not be good at all

[Eric is Quiet]

22 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Yeah for a 3 hour 26 minute movie 3-4 would not be bad for thursday previews. That would probably translate to 25 -35 for the weekend depending on IM/WOM. That would not be bad but the budget  is what everybody has and will be hung up on. 

At this rate, it's easier to just ignore budgets and enjoy little victories that movies like this can make okay money. These movies are being funded by capitalist, soulless conglomos who will happily lay off their employees for an easy profit and it's not like theaters will see any impact if a big hit movie makes a loss or not. I know some will cry foul, but you got to find happiness somehow.

[emoviefan]

4 minutes ago, Eric MacNeil said:

At this rate, it's easier to just ignore budgets and enjoy little victories that movies like this can make okay money. These movies are being funded by capitalist, soulless conglomos who will happily lay off their employees for an easy profit and it's not like theaters will see any impact if a big hit movie makes a loss or not. I know some will cry foul, but you got to find happiness somehow.

Amen to that.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 10/7/2023 at 6:36 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-13

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
145	506	24356	2.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

18

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-13

 

(0.348x) of Oppenheimer ~$3.65M THUR Previews

(0.930x) of Blue Beetle ~$3.07M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $3.36M 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-12

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
145	523	24356	2.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

17

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-12

 

(0.339x) of Oppenheimer ~$3.56M THUR Previews

(0.824x) of Blue Beetle ~$2.72M THUR Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $3.14M 

 

On the decline 

Edited October 8, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[TheFlatLannister]

On 10/7/2023 at 6:34 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-20

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
162	2022	30059	6.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

49

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-20

 

(1.068x) of Flash~$10.36M THUR Previews

(0.747x) of ATSV ~$12.96M THUR Previews

(1.496x) of Fast X~$11.22M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $11.51M

 

First real "slow" day

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FIVE NIGHTS AT FREDDY'S

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-19

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
162	2134	30059	7.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

112

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-19

 

(1.096x) of Flash~$10.63M THUR Previews

(0.759x) of ATSV ~$13.18M THUR Previews

(1.553x) of Fast X~$11.65M THUR Previews

Comps AVG: $11.82M

 

For a sunday, this was an excellent day. 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 10/7/2023 at 7:33 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
226	11942	43831	27.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

93

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

20

 

COMPS

T-6

 

(1.716x) of GOTG3~$30.02M FRIDAY for TET

(2.580x) of ATSV~$44.76M FRIDAY for TET

(3.533x) of TLM~$36.39M FRIDAY for TET 

(1.669x) of Barbie with EA~$37.23M FRIDAY for TET 

COMPS AVG: $37.1M

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $51.94M

 

Fell drastically against all comps today. Changed Barbie and added its EA. 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

FRIDAY

 

TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERA TOUR

 

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
226	12024	43831	27.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

82

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

20

 

COMPS

T-5

 

(1.639x) of GOTG3~$28.68M FRIDAY for TET

(2.444x) of ATSV~$42.40M FRIDAY for TET

(3.312x) of TLM~$34.09M FRIDAY for TET 

(1.929x) of Barbie~$40.68M FRIDAY for TET 

COMPS AVG: $36.46M

Adjusted 40% up for ATP $51.04M

 

Tomorrow is going to be a bloodbath against comps as the heavy hitters really started to accelerate at T-4

[Jake4]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Renaissance MTC1

Previews - 78942/314294 2000042.00 1556 shows

Friday - 59044/710261 1508187.00 3401 shows

 

 

 

Killers of the Flower Moon MTC1

Previews - 19347/290195 362063.91 1754 shows

Friday - 14523/413075 273534.35 2467 shows

 

 

Renaissance at least has long time to its release and so its pace is fairly good. Flower Moon on the other hand has been disappointing after a good opening day of presales. Since strong reviews have been known for months, I am not sure what can boost except good walkups. 

What is your prediction for opening weekend for renaissance?

[DAJK]

1 hour ago, Eric MacNeil said:

At this rate, it's easier to just ignore budgets and enjoy little victories that movies like this can make okay money. These movies are being funded by capitalist, soulless conglomos who will happily lay off their employees for an easy profit and it's not like theaters will see any impact if a big hit movie makes a loss or not. I know some will cry foul, but you got to find happiness somehow.

For anyone cheering movie theaters > studios...

 

A movie with a 200M budget that makes 75M domestic is usually better for a theater than a movie with a 1M budget making 40M. Theaters just need ticket sales, that's it. 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 10/1/2023 at 3:17 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Saturday sales 

ORLANDO-GAINSVILLE-DAYTONA 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
373	10824	71482	15.1%

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

82 seats sold over the past week

 

0.953x behind Friday sales.

 

Sunday sales 

ORLANDO-GAINSVILLE-DAYTONA 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
372	6170	71307	8.7%

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

282 seats sold over the past week

 

0.570x behind Saturday sales.

0.543x behind Friday sales. 

 

Good growth for Sunday over the week, but really bad growth for Saturday. 

Saturday sales 

ORLANDO-GAINSVILLE-DAYTONA 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
378	11006	72549	15.2%

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

182 seats sold over the past week

0.915x behind Friday sales.

 

Sunday sales 

ORLANDO-GAINSVILLE-DAYTONA 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
379	6694	72713	9.2%

 

SELLOUTS

2

 

524 seats sold over the past week

 

0.608x behind Saturday sales.

0.557x behind Friday sales. 

 

Solid growth for Sunday. Bad growth for Saturday 

[Mojoguy]

22 minutes ago, DAJK said:

For anyone cheering movie theaters > studios...

 

A movie with a 200M budget that makes 75M domestic is usually better for a theater than a movie with a 1M budget making 40M. Theaters just need ticket sales, that's it. 

Yeah

 

Ticket sales = concession sales

 

Theaters nearly make all their money from overpriced food sales. Also family movies sell more food thanks to kids wanting something to eat.

[Giorno]

3 hours ago, Eric MacNeil said:

At this rate, it's easier to just ignore budgets and enjoy little victories that movies like this can make okay money. These movies are being funded by capitalist, soulless conglomos who will happily lay off their employees for an easy profit and it's not like theaters will see any impact if a big hit movie makes a loss or not. I know some will cry foul, but you got to find happiness somehow.

yes but if a movie like killers loses a lot of money than its gonna make the next movie of this type getting funding or something close even harder unless you have a megastar commercial director like nolan

[Curiouser and Curiouser]

18 minutes ago, Giorno said:

yes but if a movie like killers loses a lot of money than its gonna make the next movie of this type getting funding or something close even harder unless you have a megastar commercial director like nolan

 Nah this is just a prestige play by Apple for posterity. But I still very much want it to do well. 

[filmlover]

I'm not going to hear it when every single movie these next two years loses money due to an extended shutdown causing budgets to skyrocket. Embrace for the inevitable. That is all.

[abracadabra1998]

On 10/5/2023 at 6:59 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Killers of the Flower Moon (T-14):

Day: T-14	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	60	39	337	9853	3.42

 

Comps:

0.25x Oppenheimer: $2.68 Million

0.58x Mission Impossible 7 (Just Tuesday): $4.03 Million

0.42x Indiana Jones 5: $3 Million

 

Five Nights at Freddy's (T-21):

Day: T-21	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 13 theaters	39	306	504	4827	10.44

 

I won't add comps to this until closer to release, don't have any that make a lot of sense and I'd rather see where this stabilizes a bit first. Also, I track 20 theaters, so 7 of them not having showtimes for this yet is odd. I'm sure they'll add some. Awesome growth the last four days.

 

Renaissance by Beyonce (T-56):

Day: T-56	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	41	785	785	7320	10.72

 

Comp:

0.0769x TET on day 4 (T-39): ???

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Killers of the Flower Moon (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	60	46	383	9853	3.89

 

Comps:

0.25x Oppenheimer: $2.67 Million

0.56x Mission Impossible 7 (Just Tuesday): $3.95 Million

0.44x Indiana Jones 5: $3.19 Million

 

Still mostly keeping track with comps, so not too apprehensive, but the lack of review bump in the final week could be an issue. Adding Haunting in Venice and Big Fat Greek Wedding to round out my comps on Thursday.

 

Five Nights at Freddy's (T-18):

Day: T-18	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 13 theaters	39	120	624	4827	12.93

 

No Marcus showtimes yet for this one, as well as a couple of other local chains. 

 

Comps (bad, baaaaaaaad ones, best I can do for now tbh. Trying to get a sense of how sales do compared to a variety of different flicks/types of movies):

4.99x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $15.47 Million

1.42x Mission Impossible 7 (Just Tuesday): $9.95 Million

0.7x Barbie (Just Thursday): $14.9 Million

 

Renaissance by Beyonce (T-53):

Day: T-53	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	41	47	832	7320	11.37

 

Tracking T-Swizzle daily starting tomorrow!

[keysersoze123]

On 10/7/2023 at 9:24 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour MTC1

Friday(T-6) - 538839/797150 11390510.71 4782 shows

Saturday - 468861/1609758 10137613.29 9408 shows

Taylor Swift Eras Tour MTC1

Friday(T-5) - 540843/797421 11433033.27 4786 shows

Saturday - 472959/1611114 10226312.51 9421 shows

Sunday(as of morning) - 318505/1574641 6975672.45 9142 shows

 

We are entering final weekdays. It has to show some sign of life starting tomorrow. If there is any expansion we will see starting late afternoon tomorrow. 

[keysersoze123]

On 10/7/2023 at 8:38 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Five Nights at Freddy's MTC1

Previews(T-19) - 35214/191232 491049.4 1337 shows +1533

Friday - 40068/341600 569990.78 2225 shows +2512

 

At last its slowing down. I will slow down my updates until closer to release. 

Five Nights at Freddy's MTC1

Previews(T-18) - 37123/193093 519009.83 1349 shows +1909

Friday - 43329/342220 620049.51 2229 shows +3261

 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour MTC1

Friday(T-5) - 540843/797421 11433033.27 4786 shows

Saturday - 472959/1611114 10226312.51 9421 shows

Sunday(as of morning) - 318505/1574641 6975672.45 9142 shows

 

We are entering final weekdays. It has to show some sign of life starting tomorrow. If there is any expansion we will see starting late afternoon tomorrow. 

Expecting $12M by THU night based on current pace. Probably $13M final. That should give around $30M perhaps. Need to see MTC 2 nos. to be sure.

SAT probably be $11.75M by FRI night. $13M final as well. 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Five Nights at Freddy's MTC1

Previews(T-18) - 37123/193093 519009.83 1349 shows +1909

Friday - 43329/342220 620049.51 2229 shows +3261

 

Brilliant. Looking good for $10M+, probably even mid teens if final days are this good.

 

FRI is great.

Edited October 9, 2023 by charlie Jatinder

[Porthos]

On 10/7/2023 at 12:43 AM, Porthos said:

 

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-55 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	71	10312	10816	504	4.66%

 

Total Showings Added Today	3
Total Seats Added Today	97
Total Seats Sold Today	2

 

 

Comp against TET's D1 total:

0.09615x The Era Tours after one day of pre-sales [???m] [1.25x adj]

 

====

 

WELP!

 

Time to switch to twice a week (and possible once a week) updates!

 

Next update, Sunday night.

 

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-53 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	71	10296	10816	520	4.81%

 

Total Seats Sold Past Two Days

16

 

 

Comp against TET's D1 total:

0.09920x The Era Tours after one day of pre-sales [???m] [1.25x adj]

 

===

 

Next update, Thur night; then switching to weekly updates.

Edited October 10, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

On 10/8/2023 at 12:11 AM, Porthos said:

 

Five Nights At Freddy's Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-19 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	101	13601	15048	1447	9.62%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

92

 

T-19 Comps:

	%		Sold T-19	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Wick4	187.44		47	772		0/86	12192/12964	5.95%		5448	26.56%		16.68m
AtSV	90.38		42	1601		0/123	18301/19902	8.04%		9744	14.85%		15.68m
GOTG3	44.25		87	3270		0/206	26377/29647	11.03%		10750	13.46%		7.74m
Flash	148.26		51	976		0/178	24172/25148	3.88%		5327	27.16%		14.38m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of FNAFs current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     375/3078  [12.18% sold]
Matinee:    141/926  [15.23% | 9.74% of all tickets sold]

 

Five Nights At Freddy's Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-18 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	101	13539	15048	1509	10.03%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

62

 

T-18 Comps:

	%		Sold T-18	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Wick4	172.26		104	876		0/88	12454/13330	6.57%		5448	27.70%		15.33m
AtSV	89.71		81	1682		0/123	18234/19916	8.45%		9744	15.49%		15.57m
GOTG3	44.91		90	3360		0/206	26287/29647	11.33%		10750	14.04%		7.86m
Flash	149.41		34	1010		0/178	24138/25148	4.02%		5327	28.33%		14.49m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of FNAFs current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     391/3078  [12.70% sold]
Matinee:    149/926  [16.09% | 9.87% of all tickets sold]

Edited October 10, 2023 by Porthos