The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

MysteryMovieMogul · October 18, 2023

42 minutes ago, Eric Mouse said:

Such conceived tentpoles as New Regency/20th Century Studios/Disney’s $80M The Creator were impacted greatly by the strike; that pic’s promotion was hamstrung sans an awesome San Diego Comic-Con and fall film festival launch, ultimately opening to $14M and currently at a running cume of $33.4M.

1. Denzel's son is no Leo DiCaprio
2. Gareth Edwards is no Martin Scorsese
3. Killers of the Flower Moon was a non-fiction book about real events; it's by no means original in the way The Creator is (however cliché the latter may be)

EDIT: Although, it's disingenuous that the article lists The Creator's budget, but not Killer of the Flower Moon's, so an $80 million film opening at $14 million would translate to a $200 million needing to open at $35 million to match the same budget/opening ratio.

EDIT 2: Obviously, I know KotFM is the better film, but it's so silly that these two movies are being compared. Especially when I've seen a hell of a lot more promotion for KotFM than I ever did for The Creator.

Edited October 18, 2023 by MysteryMovieMogul

vale9001 · October 18, 2023

1 hour ago, Eric Mouse said:

https://deadline.com/2023/10/taylor-swift-the-eras-tour-killers-of-the-flower-moon-box-office-opening-1235576918/

Variety wrote 20-30M for Scorsese.

35-40M for TET.

Seems more realistic to me than deadline. An estimation on Hannah Montana drop seems not very fair to me, also because this is not playing weekdays. I believe to something around Bieber drop.

I think walk ups because of Di Caprio Will push the other one to the 30M range.

Edited October 18, 2023 by vale9001

VanillaSkies · October 18, 2023

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Since this just "weekend only", I expect all 4 days to be rolled into weekend gross. That said I am not sure how big the thursday BO will be. Its not seeing any walkups. So either ways its irrelevant.

doing some quick math - I don’t see how it doesn’t do at least 4-5 million on Thursday. Even with losing IMAX and some other PLF, lowering ATP it would just need about an average of 70 tickets sold per theatre.

$19 x 70 people x 3850 theatres = $5 120 500.

From what I am seeing for showtimes, lots of theatres have over 70 people for tomorrows showing (as that’s per theatre, not per show) which would help average out any underperforming theatres. I’d be shocked actually if it comes below 4-5 million on Thursday.

So depending on how’s it’s reported, it could make the difference between #1 and #2 for the weekend…

Will be interesting to watch….

M37 · October 18, 2023

9 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

Variety wrote 20-30M for Scorsese.

35-40M for TET.

Seems more realistic to me than deadline. An estimation on Hannah Montana drop seems not very fair to me, also because this is not playing weekdays. I believe to something around Bieber drop.

Getting a bit out of tracking realm, but Bieber’s second weekend drop was softened by President’s day. Both dropped >67% on second Friday, but the answer is probably something in the middle (depending on what happens with Thur BO$)

Bob Train · October 18, 2023

Film	Studio	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, October 22	Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed)	3-Day % Change from Last Wknd
Killers of the Flower Moon	Paramount Pictures & Apple	$35,400,000	$35,400,000	3,621	NEW
Taylor Swift \| The Eras Tour	AMC Theatres Distribution & Variance Films	$33,700,000	$126,500,000	~3,855	-64%
The Exorcist: Believer	Universal Pictures & Blumhouse	$6,300,000	$54,900,000	~3,400	-43%
PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie	Paramount Pictures	$4,500,000	$56,000,000	~3,400	-35%
Saw X	Lionsgate	$3,900,000	$47,500,000	~2,800	-31%
The Creator	20th Century Studios	$2,500,000	$36,600,000	~2,500	-42%
The Nightmare Before Christmas: 30th Anniversary		$1,400,000	$1,400,000	~1,500	NEW
The Blind	Fathom Events	$1,300,000	$16,100,000	~1,000	-33%
A Haunting in Venice	20th Century Studios	$1,100,000	$40,900,000	~1,400	-43%
The Nun II	Warner Bros. Pictures	$1,000,000	$85,400,000	~1,500	-38%

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-dicaprio-and-scorseses-killers-of-the-flower-moon-takes-on-taylor-swifts-second-frame/

TwoMisfits · October 18, 2023

So, I figured I'd post an update on how my locals set this weekend.

The PLF local did NOT expand KOTFM from presales - it sticks with 2 screens (1PLF, 1 not - Taylor kept the other PLF screen) and 6 showings for Fri/Sat/Sun (after 4 Thurs), 1 of the 2nd largest set and 1 of the medium size, The non-PLF local also stuck with 2 screens (both regular) and 6 showings Fri/Sat/Sun after 4 on Thursday - of the screens, 1 is a biggest and the other is a smallest 60 seater.

I would not doubt Deadline's range with so few showings and seats...this may sell in the Southwest (OK especially) and the cities, but suburbia may just not show up, even at $5 (which these theaters would have available)...there's just so few desirably timed showings and seats.

Edited October 18, 2023 by TwoMisfits

MysteryMovieMogul · October 18, 2023

23 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Film Studio 3-Day Weekend Forecast Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, October 22 Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed) 3-Day % Change from Last Wknd

Killers of the Flower Moon Paramount Pictures & Apple $35,400,000 $35,400,000 3,621 NEW

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour AMC Theatres Distribution & Variance Films $33,700,000 $126,500,000 ~3,855 -64%

The Exorcist: Believer Universal Pictures & Blumhouse $6,300,000 $54,900,000 ~3,400 -43%

PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie Paramount Pictures $4,500,000 $56,000,000 ~3,400 -35%

Saw X Lionsgate $3,900,000 $47,500,000 ~2,800 -31%

The Creator 20th Century Studios $2,500,000 $36,600,000 ~2,500 -42%

The Nightmare Before Christmas: 30th Anniversary $1,400,000 $1,400,000 ~1,500 NEW

The Blind Fathom Events $1,300,000 $16,100,000 ~1,000 -33%

A Haunting in Venice 20th Century Studios $1,100,000 $40,900,000 ~1,400 -43%

The Nun II Warner Bros. Pictures $1,000,000 $85,400,000 ~1,500 -38%

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-dicaprio-and-scorseses-killers-of-the-flower-moon-takes-on-taylor-swifts-second-frame/

How often are their predictions correct, because this one just feels... off.

XXRDJisDoctorDoom · October 18, 2023

If anyone who tracked Eras Tour for last Friday and Saturday, could check this Friday and Saturday, we could probably get a pretty good extrapolation of this weekend’s numbers, considering the lack of walk ups.

Porthos · October 18, 2023

4 minutes ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:

If anyone who tracked Eras Tour for last Friday and Saturday, could check this Friday and Saturday, we could probably get a pretty good extrapolation of this weekend’s numbers, considering the lack of walk ups.

(just waaaaay too many other things going on)

Inceptionzq · October 18, 2023

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Five Nights at Freddy's Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total 236 1104 21.38%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 131 948 13.82%

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS

1302 88 12352 10.54% 13 76

0.455 Barbie T-9 10.16M

1.215 The Flash T-9 11.78M

0.656 AtSV T-9 11.37M

1.935 Black Adam T-9 14.70M

Five Nights at Freddy's Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

253

1104

22.92%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

158

948

16.67%

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1403	101	12352	11.36%	13	76

0.445	Barbie T-8	9.92M
1.243	The Flash T-8	12.05M
0.670	AtSV T-8	11.62M

Inceptionzq · October 18, 2023

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Five Nights at Freddy's Alamo Drafthouse

T-9 Thursday 112 Showings 4373 +165 14547 ATP: 15.56

1.561 The Flash T-9 15.14M

0.831 AtSV T-9 14.42M

2.810 Black Adam T-9 21.36M

T-10 Friday 125 Showings 4174 +233 16659 ATP: 14.70

2.157 The Flash T-10 31.93M

0.862 AtSV T-10 29.72M

3.099 Black Adam T-10 59.15M

T-11 Saturday 116 Showings 2961 +187 14747 ATP: 14.28

1.700 The Flash T-11 26.69M

0.628 AtSV T-11 23.49M

2.169 Black Adam T-11 51.43M

T-12 Sunday 105 Showings 1295 +56 13622 ATP: 13.30

1.697 The Flash T-12 26.31M

0.449 AtSV T-12 14.04M

2.871 Black Adam T-12 47.67M

Five Nights at Freddy's Alamo Drafthouse

T-8 Thursday

115 Showings

4529

+156

14821

ATP:

15.50

1.538	The Flash T-8	14.92M
0.811	AtSV T-8	14.07M

T-9 Friday

129 Showings

4439

+265

17071

ATP:

14.63

2.136	The Flash T-9	31.62M
0.852	AtSV T-9	29.41M

T-10 Saturday

121 Showings

3109

+148

15262

ATP:

14.24

1.651	The Flash T-10	25.92M
0.620	AtSV T-10	23.20M

T-11 Sunday

109 Showings

1446

+151

14034

ATP:

13.21

1.742	The Flash T-11	27.00M
0.461	AtSV T-11	14.40M

Inceptionzq · October 18, 2023

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Five Nights at Freddy's Emagine Entertainment

T-9 Thursday 122 Showings 1827 +157 17632

0.520 Barbie T-9 11.59M

1.422 The Flash T-9 13.79M

1.084 AtSV T-9 18.80M

T-10 Friday 151 Showings 4126 +316 21380

0.942 Barbie T-10 45.42M

5.050 The Flash T-10 74.74M

2.585 AtSV T-10 89.19M

T-11 Saturday 153 Showings 1482 +146 21655

0.695 Barbie T-11 33.22M

2.482 The Flash T-11 38.97M

1.709 AtSV T-11 63.93M

T-12 Sunday 142 Showings 395 +25 19853

0.419 Barbie T-12 18.31M

1.519 The Flash T-12 23.55M

1.165 AtSV T-12 36.41M

Five Nights at Freddy's Emagine Entertainment

T-8 Thursday

122 Showings

1962

+135

17808

0.498	Barbie T-8	11.10M
1.426	The Flash T-8	13.83M
1.055	AtSV T-8	18.30M

T-9 Friday

151 Showings

4403

+277

21384

0.858	Barbie T-9	41.37M
5.061	The Flash T-9	74.90M
2.500	AtSV T-9	86.26M

T-10 Saturday

153 Showings

1626

+144

21657

0.645	Barbie T-10	30.86M
2.565	The Flash T-10	40.27M
1.730	AtSV T-10	64.69M

T-11 Sunday

142 Showings

436

+41

19853

0.377	Barbie T-11	16.47M
1.552	The Flash T-11	24.05M
1.228	AtSV T-11	38.38M

Inceptionzq · October 18, 2023

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Marvels Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total 182 3221 5.65%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 127 2202 5.77%

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS

693 37 26777 2.59% 13 137

1.238 Indiana Jones 5 T-23 8.91M

0.378 Guardians 3 T-23 6.61M

The Marvels Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

191

3221

5.93%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

133

2202

6.04%

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
724	29	26777	2.70%	13	137

1.257

Indiana Jones 5 T-22

9.05M

Gonna add The Flash and Eternals back starting tomorrow

Inceptionzq · October 18, 2023

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Marvels Alamo Drafthouse

T-23 Thursday 168 Showings 2789 +103 25199 ATP: 17.36

0.743 Indiana Jones 5 T-23 5.35M

0.372 Guardians 3 T-23 6.50M

T-24 Friday 225 Showings 2055 +102 35187 ATP: 17.15

0.678 Indiana Jones 5 T-24 11.39M

0.373 Guardians 3 T-24 11.41M

T-25 Saturday 233 Showings 1891 +96 36215 ATP: 15.92

0.628 Indiana Jones 5 T-25 11.67M

0.303 Guardians 3 T-25 11.78M

T-26 Sunday 218 Showings 749 +50 33942 ATP: 15.27

0.497 Indiana Jones 5 T-26 9.00M

0.251 Guardians 3 T-26 7.90M

The Marvels Alamo Drafthouse

T-22 Thursday

168 Showings

2863

+74

25199

ATP:

17.35

0.753

Indiana Jones 5 T-22

5.42M

T-23 Friday

225 Showings

2167

+112

35187

ATP:

17.17

0.696

Indiana Jones 5 T-23

11.69M

T-24 Saturday

233 Showings

1974

+83

36215

ATP:

15.93

0.635

Indiana Jones 5 T-24

11.80M

T-25 Sunday

218 Showings

808

+59

33942

ATP:

15.23

0.525

Indiana Jones 5 T-25

9.51M

Inceptionzq · October 18, 2023

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Marvels Emagine Entertainment

T-23 Thursday 158 Showings 777 +40 25520

1.022 Indiana Jones 5 T-23 7.36M

T-24 Friday 242 Showings 348 +14 39743

1.242 Indiana Jones 5 T-24 20.86M

T-25 Saturday 252 Showings 291 +13 40634

1.727 Indiana Jones 5 T-25 32.08M

T-26 Sunday 241 Showings 130 +9 39399

1.704 Indiana Jones 5 T-26 30.85M

The Marvels Emagine Entertainment

T-22 Thursday

158 Showings

789

+12

25520

0.999

Indiana Jones 5 T-22

7.19M

T-23 Friday

242 Showings

365

+17

39743

1.132

Indiana Jones 5 T-23

19.02M

T-24 Saturday

252 Showings

303

+12

40526

1.685

Indiana Jones 5 T-24

31.30M

T-25 Sunday

241 Showings

134

+4

39399

1.704

Indiana Jones 5 T-25

30.85M

cooldude97 · October 18, 2023

Hilts · October 18, 2023

23 hours ago, Hilts said:

Killers of the Flower Moon OK

Thursday - showings starting 2.30pm

Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth

T-6 25 100 162 2,468 17,929 13.77% 7.03%

T-5 25 100 118 2,586 17,929 14.42% 4.78%

T-4 25 100 283 2,869 17,929 16.00% 10.94%

T-3 25 100 361 3,230 17,929 18.02% 12.58%

T-2 25 121 487 3,717 19,799 18.77% 15.08%

MTC1 8 39 +171 1,372 6,677 20.55% 14.24%

MTC2 4 18 +68 667 3,132 21.30% 11.35%

MTC3 3 26 +158 1,021 5,060 20.18% 18.31%

Other 10 38 +90 657 4,930 13.33% 15.87%

Comps

Oppenheimer 1.283x = $13.47m

Barbie 0.586x = $13.02m

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 2.085x = $15.01m

Sound of Freedom 1.180x = $6.14m

Sold 30% more than Oppenheimer did today. Added a bunch more showings - not sure how many more they can fit in with the runtime.

I know I am ground zero but hope this is doing well in other areas below the radar that we aren't tracking and this weekend can pull a surprise / mini Barbenheimer.

Big two days coming up.

EDIT: I forgot to mention one of the MTC1s I track was not working today so numbers should have been even higher!

Killers of the Flower Moon							OK

Thursday - showings starting 2.30pm

Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-5	25	100	118	2,586	17,929	14.42%	4.78%
T-4	25	100	283	2,869	17,929	16.00%	10.94%
T-3	25	100	361	3,230	17,929	18.02%	12.58%
T-2	25	121	487	3,717	19,799	18.77%	15.08%
T-1	25	136	575	4,292	21,264	20.18%	15.47%

MTC1	8	49	+171	1,543	7,365	20.95%	12.46%
MTC2	4	23	+111	778	3,909	19.90%	16.64%
MTC3	3	26	+136	1,157	5,060	22.87%	13.32%
Other	10	38	+157	814	4,930	16.51%	23.90%

Comps
Oppenheimer					1.261x	=	$13.24m
Barbie					0.573x	=	$12.72m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					2.098x	=	$15.10m
Sound of Freedom					1.213x	=	$6.31m

One of the MTC1s still not working grrr. MTC1/2 still expanding sets.

Not much of a step up so maybe walkups will be muted tomorrow. Let's see. Weekend movie anyway. Hoping this and TET can both top $30m otherwise that would be a shame.

Inceptionzq · October 18, 2023

40 minutes ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:

If anyone who tracked Eras Tour for last Friday and Saturday, could check this Friday and Saturday, we could probably get a pretty good extrapolation of this weekend’s numbers, considering the lack of walk ups.

Denver Friday: 2876 sold

0.254x Eras Tour Friday T-2 (8.83M)

Hilts · October 18, 2023

23 hours ago, Hilts said:

Five Nights at Freddy's OK

Thursday - showings starting 2pm

Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth

T-13 20 95 71 1,050 14,252 7.37% 7.25%

T-12 20 95 54 1,104 14,252 7.75% 5.14%

T-11 20 95 65 1,169 14,252 8.20% 5.89%

T-10 20 95 52 1,221 14,252 8.57% 4.45%

T-9 23 104 131* 1,352 15,588 8.67% 10.73%

MTC1 7 21 +46 552 2,213 24.94% 9.09%

MTC2 4 38 +33 291 5,541 5.25% 12.79%

MTC3 3 20 +7 335 4,277 7.83% 2.13%

Other 9 25 +45 174 3,557 4.89% 34.88%

Comps

Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One 1.696x = $14.93m

Barbie 0.504x = $11.20m

Haunted Mansion 6.660x = $20.65m

Oppenheimer 1.004x = $10.55m

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 1.275x = $9.18m

Note 1: one of the MTC1s was not working today.

Note 2: Today's number looks really good but there were a bunch of showings only added today from an "other" chain I track that I think were already sold previously that I had not counted. But even taking those out it's still very good. It always happens at T-9 so that day is always overperforming and therefore doesn't affect the comps too much usually.

I've never seen MTC1 seat/show count so low compared to the others, baffling but they must all be held for TET still, no other reason it could be. I guess we'll see some action after the 2nd weekend hold (or lack of).

Five Nights at Freddy's							OK

Thursday - showings starting 2pm

Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-12	20	95	54	1,104	14,252	7.75%	5.14%
T-11	20	95	65	1,169	14,252	8.20%	5.89%
T-10	20	95	52	1,221	14,252	8.57%	4.45%
T-9	23	104	131	1,352	15,588	8.67%	10.73%
T-8	23	110	91	1,443	16,176	8.92%	6.73%

MTC1	7	21	+25	577	2,213	26.07%	4.53%
MTC2	4	43	+25	316	6,015	5.25%	8.59%
MTC3	3	20	+18	353	4,277	8.25%	5.37%
Other	9	26	+23	197	3,671	5.37%	13.22%

Comps
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					1.734x	=	$15.26m
Barbie					0.478x	=	$10.62m
Haunted Mansion					6.529x	=	$20.24m
Oppenheimer					0.982x	=	$10.31m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					1.318x	=	$9.49m

One of the MTC1s still not working.

Losing a bit of ground to Barbenheimer now which is not too unexpected. But decent sales across the board today as we wind up to final week.

Hilts · October 18, 2023

23 hours ago, Hilts said:

The Marvels OK

Thursday - showings starting 3pm

Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth

T-27 21 173 15 388 32,650 1.19% 4.02%

T-26 21 173 10 398 32,650 1.22% 2.58%

T-25 21 173 21 419 32,650 1.28% 5.28%

T-24 21 173 21 440 32,650 1.35% 5.01%

T-23 21 173 17 457 32,650 1.40% 3.86%

MTC1 8 59 +6 247 10,485 2.36% 2.49%

MTC2 4 48 +3 52 8,204 0.63% 6.12%

MTC3 3 39 +4 129 8,077 1.60% 3.20%

Other 6 27 +4 29 5,884 0.49% 16.00%

Comps

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 0.737x = $5.31m

Barbie 0.491x = $10.90m

Oppenheimer 0.721x = $7.57m

Five Nights at Freddy's 0.964x

Note: one of the MTC1s was not working today.

And FNaF is ahead. It is falling compared to Indy which is concerning but I assume it will gain that ground back later.

The Marvels							OK

Thursday - showings starting 3pm

Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-26	21	173	10	398	32,650	1.22%	2.58%
T-25	21	173	21	419	32,650	1.28%	5.28%
T-24	21	173	21	440	32,650	1.35%	5.01%
T-23	21	173	17	457	32,650	1.40%	3.86%
T-22	21	173	22	479	32,650	1.47%	4.81%

MTC1	8	59	+6	253	10,485	2.41%	2.43%
MTC2	4	48	+5	57	8,204	0.69%	9.62%
MTC3	3	39	+4	133	8,077	1.65%	3.10%
Other	6	27	+7	36	5,884	0.61%	24.14%

Comps
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					0.730x	=	$5.26m
Barbie					0.474x	=	$10.53m
Oppenheimer					0.729x	=	$7.66m
Five Nights at Freddy's					0.830x

One of the MTC1s still not working.

Looks like we are in a bit of a rhythm now until the next catalyst.

0.455	Barbie T-9	10.16M
1.215	The Flash T-9	11.78M
0.656	AtSV T-9	11.37M

0.520	Barbie T-9	11.59M
1.422	The Flash T-9	13.79M
1.084	AtSV T-9	18.80M

0.942	Barbie T-10	45.42M
5.050	The Flash T-10	74.74M
2.585	AtSV T-10	89.19M

0.695	Barbie T-11	33.22M
2.482	The Flash T-11	38.97M
1.709	AtSV T-11	63.93M

0.419	Barbie T-12	18.31M
1.519	The Flash T-12	23.55M
1.165	AtSV T-12	36.41M

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