The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[tdangie]

8 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

No advanced fan screenings or anything.

Jason blum is doing fan screenings (Oct 25 i think???)! He announced it awhile back on twitter for people to sign up to the blumhouse newsletter first, and I think all the screenings in the different cities got booked in less than 1 minute (based again on all the venting i saw from fnaf twitter lmao)

[M37]

11 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

It doesn't really feel like FNAF is opening this week. Universal doesn't seem to be doing much with it, the hype seems fan driven. No advanced fan screenings or anything.

You can count Universal in the camp that was not expecting anything close to this kind of breakout for FNAF (based on their actions, and/or lack thereof). But I’m hearing rumblings that’s starting to change, and rapidly …

 

Going to be less concerned about capacity, just a question of if they can fully catch the wave 

[Giorno]

The Marvels (D-19):

 

631 tickets sold at 10 Houston AMC's/+26 YD

 

[Grand Cine]

17 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Five Night at Freddy's

MTC1 previews - 64622/365663 944657.00 2442 shows

MTC2 previews - 54869/502151 720070.23 3553 shows

 

Terrific growth at both places. All set for final push. @M37 FYI.  

 

I found comparaison for FNAF for MTC1 :

 

Scream VI :

T-4 : Previews  - 32787/222604 534606.49 1278 shows 

Final : Previews - 90938/320367 1433308.50 1965 shows

 

Halloween Ends :

Final : Previews - 84926/513785 1338324.10 2920 shows

 

Halloween Kills :

Final : Previews :  88724/254376 1291225.80 1653 shows

 

Final for recent movies :

 

Saw X - 35871/200495 547667.55 1254 shows

The Nun 2: - 53736/414741 988885.66 2267 shows

Exorcist : - 50266/401420 932400.74 2153 shows

 

I think at this point , FNAF is already with 3m of dollars for previews and it's very good , i think to pass the 10m , it should make around 210K-220K , for the 13-14 to have the record of Ca it should make around 300K like a blockbuster ( i think it's almost the result of Guardians 3, Ant Man 3 and Spiderman this year)

 

 

[keysersoze123]

9 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

 

 

I think at this point , FNAF is already with 3m of dollars for previews and it's very good , i think to pass the 10m , it should make around 210K-220K , for the 13-14 to have the record of Ca it should make around 300K like a blockbuster ( i think it's almost the result of Guardians 3, Ant Man 3 and Spiderman this year)

 

 

Good stuff. It is behaving like a blockbuster for sure. 

[SpiderByte]

Think FNAF walk-ups will be hurt by the new early release?

[keysersoze123]

The Marvels

Previews(T-20) - 41816/687997 836568.08 3502 shows

Friday - 23427/1036969 448738.65 5274 shows

 

Still plodding along. I wonder if it will be sub 100K until the release day. That would be nuts for sure. Compared to other places this is still quite strong but still its still below Eternals which had a shorter window and so was pacing lot higher. No comps with Guardians or Ant 3. I think this is DOA. 

[filmlover]

We're in for a soft holiday season I think. Feel like Hunger Games could pull a $30M opening (and sub-$100M total) and no one would be surprised at this point. Though studios will just cite the actor's strike as the reason for all the underperformances (should it drag out into the new year, someway somehow).

[M37]

22 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Think FNAF walk-ups will be hurt by the new early release?

Looking at how strong Friday sales already were even with the D&D release, not really. Fans are coming out anyway 

 

it’s the more GA heavy Sat & Sun that is most likely to suffer (probably. We’ll see)

[JustLurking]

I don't have a *great* grasp on the IP, but sort of have a feeling FNAF's final days will be rather soft. Could be completely off base, mind you.

[Grand Cine]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Good stuff. It is behaving like a blockbuster for sure. 

Thank you very much . Could you @keysersoze123 make the tracking for Wish and Trolls 3 even it's very early because i could make also the comparaison with Elemental , Minions 2 , Sing 2 or PIB 2

[Grand Cine]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

The Marvels

Previews(T-20) - 41816/687997 836568.08 3502 shows

Friday - 23427/1036969 448738.65 5274 shows

 

Still plodding along. I wonder if it will be sub 100K until the release day. That would be nuts for sure. Compared to other places this is still quite strong but still its still below Eternals which had a shorter window and so was pacing lot higher. No comps with Guardians or Ant 3. I think this is DOA. 

I think it's very problematic because the numbers for previews aren't very good but the number for friday is very bad and the difference of Thursday/Friday, i think Saturday is better because of the Veteran Day , but now at this point i think we are in 60's range

[keysersoze123]

34 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

Thank you very much . Could you @keysersoze123 make the tracking for Wish and Trolls 3 even it's very early because i could make also the comparaison with Elemental , Minions 2 , Sing 2 or PIB 2

I will look at wish after Marvels open. Its pain getting this info these days to put it in simple terms. I dont think its the kind of money that has big early presales. Just look at data from Orlando or couple of other locations. One theater is dominating the presales so far !!!

[Grand Cine]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I will look at wish after Marvels open. Its pain getting this info these days to put it in simple terms. I dont think its the kind of money that has big early presales. Just look at data from Orlando or couple of other locations. One theater is dominating the presales so far !!!

Ok thanks , i think and i hope Wish work like Elemental ( with a good WOM) , i look at different theaters to see the comparaison Trolls 3/ Wish and i see than Wish has the same numbers of places taken or even more than Trolls 3 ,  maybe it's just the case for a little case but maybe Wish could make more than Trolls 3 . That’s why I asked if this was also the case at the national level

[Porthos]

3 hours ago, SpiderByte said:

Think FNAF walk-ups will be hurt by the new early release?

 

2 hours ago, M37 said:

Looking at how strong Friday sales already were even with the D&D release, not really. Fans are coming out anyway 

 

it’s the more GA heavy Sat & Sun that is most likely to suffer (probably. We’ll see)

 

This borders on snark, but only just.  If anyone actually had Peacock, I'd be more worried, as it is...

 

...

 

Okay, unfair, but I'm telling everyone here that the level concern over Peacock relative to its market share in streaming is... not commensurate.

 

Where it does potentially matter is high quality rips landing on the internet, and the demo that is most looking forward to this film is right in the target area of hunting for said rips.

 

But aside from that?  And yes, it is a fairly decent "but"?  We're not talking about HBO Max or Netflix or Disney Plus or Amazon here.  We're talking about *PEACOCK*.

 

I'll be honest with y'all.  If it wasn't for rips, I'd probably give it practically no thought at all.  Well, very little, at least.

Edited October 21, 2023 by Porthos
found the word i was looking for

[JustLurking]

I wouldn't be too worried with piracy myself. It didn't seem to hurt Demon Slayer when the PSN leak happened, and I'd say there's very few groups more used to pirating than anime fans. FNAF will be fine on that front, imho (though I still believe the final days will be on the underwhelming side).

[Hilts]

23 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

Five Nights at Freddy's							OK
Thursday - showings starting 2pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-10	20	95	52	1,221	14,252	8.57%	4.45%
T-9	23	104	131	1,352	15,588	8.67%	10.73%
T-8	23	110	91	1,443	16,176	8.92%	6.73%
T-7	23	122	97	1,540	17,247	8.93%	6.72%
T-6	23	127	163	1,703	17,848	9.54%	10.58%
MTC1	7	27	+56	670	2,703	24.79%	9.12%
MTC2	4	43	+32	379	6,015	6.30%	9.22%
MTC3	3	30	+23	394	5,341	7.38%	6.20%
Other	9	27	+52	260	3,789	6.86%	25.00%
Comps
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					1.747x	=	$15.37m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					2.653x	=	$14.85m
Haunted Mansion					5.639x	=	$17.48m
Oppenheimer					0.991x	=	$10.41m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					1.365x	=	$9.82m

 

2nd best day so far. Smaller chains did great.

 

Unfortunately I have a big gap in my comps where this will probably land and as illustrated by M37 the Barbie comp I think has ran its course so I have swapped out for TMNT, let's see how that goes. I have kept Oppy for now as it did improve today. I do think the Haunted Mansion comp will become useful (big drop today) hence my persistence but it is taking its time.

 

Five Nights at Freddy's							OK
Thursday - showings starting 2pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-9	23	104	131	1,352	15,588	8.67%	10.73%
T-8	23	110	91	1,443	16,176	8.92%	6.73%
T-7	23	122	97	1,540	17,247	8.93%	6.72%
T-6	23	127	163	1,703	17,848	9.54%	10.58%
T-5	23	133	133	1,836	18,653	9.84%	7.81%
MTC1	7	28	+41	711	2,994	23.75%	6.12%
MTC2	4	43	+50	429	6,015	7.13%	13.19%
MTC3	3	35	+20	414	5,855	7.07%	5.08%
Other	9	27	+22	282	3,789	7.44%	8.46%
Comps
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					1.613x	=	$14.20m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					2.646x	=	$14.81m
Haunted Mansion					5.667x	=	$17.57m
Oppenheimer					0.925x	=	$9.72m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					1.363x	=	$9.81m

 

[Hilts]

23 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

The Marvels							OK
Thursday - showings starting 3pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-24	21	173	21	440	32,650	1.35%	5.01%
T-23	21	173	17	457	32,650	1.40%	3.86%
T-22	21	173	22	479	32,650	1.47%	4.81%
T-21	21	173	14	493	32,650	1.51%	2.92%
T-20	21	173	15	508	32,650	1.56%	3.04%
MTC1	8	59	+7	267	10,485	2.55%	2.69%
MTC2	4	48	+2	62	8,204	0.76%	3.33%
MTC3	3	39	+6	143	8,077	1.77%	4.38%
Other	6	27	0	36	5,884	0.61%	0.00%
Comps
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					0.708x	=	$5.09m
Barbie					0.440x	=	$9.77m
Oppenheimer					0.736x	=	$7.73m
Five Nights at Freddy's					0.726x

 

The Marvels							OK
Thursday - showings starting 3pm
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-23	21	173	17	457	32,650	1.40%	3.86%
T-22	21	173	22	479	32,650	1.47%	4.81%
T-21	21	173	14	493	32,650	1.51%	2.92%
T-20	21	173	15	508	32,650	1.56%	3.04%
T-19	21	173	27	535	32,650	1.64%	5.31%
MTC1	8	59	+12	279	10,485	2.66%	4.49%
MTC2	4	48	+2	64	8,204	0.78%	3.23%
MTC3	3	39	+8	151	8,077	1.87%	5.59%
Other	6	27	+5	41	5,884	0.70%	13.89%
Comps
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					0.718x	=	$5.17m
Barbie					0.430x	=	$9.56m
Oppenheimer					0.740x	=	$7.77m
Five Nights at Freddy's					0.698x

[Grand Cine]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

This borders on snark, but only just.  If anyone actually had Peacock, I'd be more worried, as it is...

 

...

 

Okay, unfair, but I'm telling everyone here that the level concern over Peacock relative to its market share in streaming is... questionable, at best.

 

Where it does potentially matter is high quality rips landing on the internet, and the demo that is most looking forward to this film is right in the target area of hunting for said rips.

 

But aside from that?  And yes, it is a fairly decent "but"?  We're not talking about HBO Max or Netflix or Disney Plus or Amazon here.  We're talking about *PEACOCK*.

 

I'll be honest with y'all.  If it wasn't for rips, I'd probably give it practically no thought at all.  Well, very little, at least.

 

Yes , i think the change of date in the last minute will change anything of important for the presales , if the people take the decision to see the movie on TV on in theater , i think they made this months ago not now . The only thing which could change the trajectory of presales is if WOM is bad , and still it is rather in the second weekend that it will have an impact

[M37]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

 

This borders on snark, but only just.  If anyone actually had Peacock, I'd be more worried, as it is...

 

...

 

Okay, unfair, but I'm telling everyone here that the level concern over Peacock relative to its market share in streaming is... not commensurate.

 

Where it does potentially matter is high quality rips landing on the internet, and the demo that is most looking forward to this film is right in the target area of hunting for said rips.

 

But aside from that?  And yes, it is a fairly decent "but"?  We're not talking about HBO Max or Netflix or Disney Plus or Amazon here.  We're talking about *PEACOCK*.

 

I'll be honest with y'all.  If it wasn't for rips, I'd probably give it practically no thought at all.  Well, very little, at least.

But the other D&D titles also had a limited steaming market share, with the majority being Peacock (Halloween x2) HBO Max (Dune among many), and one Disney+, but that was as a paid and not free viewing to subs. [And those raw subscribers numbers don't account for password sharing, which is more prevalent among the lower tier streamers who don't yet have the brand strength to crack down]

 

And yet there was still a noticeable effect: comparing the daily patterns for those D&D releases to similar titles in an equivalent release window, I'd estimate we saw a ~10% reduction from expected gross on Sat and Sun, relative to TFri, with Fri and Thu having an unknown streaming erosion effect, though likely less. So call it ~15% total loss estimate on OW due to a simultaneous streaming release (with the effect compounding over time and really killing legs). Not enough for the constant hand wringing, but also not nothing, especially in the context of a potential $100M opening instead coming up $15M short