The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[VanillaSkies]

Looks like Godzilla Minus One - Minus Color opens January 26th in North America

 

https://x.com/culturecrave/status/1747550427032473677?s=46

 

This might be a stupid question, but are they going to track it separately? That seems odd, but if it has its own title I’m not so sure.

[harrisonisdead]

1 hour ago, VanillaSkies said:

Looks like Godzilla Minus One - Minus Color opens January 26th in North America

 

https://x.com/culturecrave/status/1747550427032473677?s=46

 

This might be a stupid question, but are they going to track it separately? That seems odd, but if it has its own title I’m not so sure.

I'm guessing it'll just be like any "special edition" re-release. Like the No Way Home re-release was billed with the subtitle "The More Fun Stuff Version" but is still treated as the same movie, reporting-wise.

[vafrow]

Looking at the recent showtime updates in my area, there's some interesting approaches to filling up screens in light of limited product:

 

-ISS is getting a pretty wide distribution. 19 out of 26 theatres in my radius.

 

-Poor things is getting into a lot of secondary theatres this weekend, including my local, even as it's no longer in the bigger screens.

 

-Night Swim is holding a lot of screens. I can't imagine it's performing particularly well, but alternatives are limited.

 

-Fighter is getting a pretty wide release up here. 15 theatres out of 26 in my radius. That's the widest I think I've seen for an Indian film. It's only the third time I recall getting an Indian film at my local. Sales only went up last night, and there's some activity, but nothing massive. But, we'll see how it does as it gets closer. I'm out of town next week, so I won't be able to track in any meaningful way. But, Cineplex is clearly leaning into Indian films to fill their theatres. It's no longer a case where it's just a handful of the larger theatres that play them anymore. It makes sense given the changing demographics in the region.

[misterpepp]

Bob Marley tix on sale Jan 21

[el sid]

I.S.S., counted today for tomorrow:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): no showtimes
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 4 (3 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 4 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 2 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 7 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 23 (3 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 21 (3 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 61.

Comps (both counted for Thursday): Midway (925k from previews, 17.9M OW) finally (= on Thursday for Thursday) had 300 sold tickets. I.S.S. will probably have around 100 sold tickets by tomorrow = 1/3 of Midway = 300k.
And 65 (1.22M from previews, 12.3M OW) had on the same day, Wednesday for Thursday, 224 sold tickets = also ca. 300k.

So judging from my theaters 300k for I.S.S. at the moment.

Edited January 17 by el sid

[Jerri Blank-Diggler]

Does anyone have the scoop on what is happening with the release of Ava DuVernay's "Origin"? I had read that it would be getting a wide release this coming weekend. However, as theaters are locking in their weekend fare, I'm only seeing "Origin" opening in certain big-city theaters. Has its release switched to limited or to some platform pattern?

 

I live in an urban area of several million people, and "Origin" is opening in a grand total of 1 area theater - about 30 miles away.  (Compare that to *ISS,* which is opening in 22 area theaters.) Looking around the country, I can see that "Origin" is doing Wednesday EA shows, Thursday previews and Friday opening in a limited number of big-city theaters, but it certainly does not seem like any kind of traditional "wide" release. Did I miss the memo about changes in its release?

Edited January 17 by Jerri Blank-Diggler

[Tinalera]

Right so Canada ISS.....ummmm

 

A certain theatre chain just now dropped SOME sales this close to opening. For only a few more theatres. Some are Thursday, some are Friday-but the thing they have in common-its a wasteland. Whether Canadian fans just arent for it, whether its the theatres just not putting any real interest (a lot of just REGULAR screens, not much prestige format). 

 

Its pointless I think for me to try this when its not filing at like T-2/T-1. There are a few movies on the Horizon like Argyle-but they have the infamous "coming soon" description. 

Any other Canadian trackers finding similar-maybe you're getting more life out there away from the big city theatres?

[filmlover]

Origin is likely only opening in a couple hundred theaters this weekend given that it hasn't factored into the awards race much.

[vafrow]

3 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

Right so Canada ISS.....ummmm

 

A certain theatre chain just now dropped SOME sales this close to opening. For only a few more theatres. Some are Thursday, some are Friday-but the thing they have in common-its a wasteland. Whether Canadian fans just arent for it, whether its the theatres just not putting any real interest (a lot of just REGULAR screens, not much prestige format). 

 

Its pointless I think for me to try this when its not filing at like T-2/T-1. There are a few movies on the Horizon like Argyle-but they have the infamous "coming soon" description. 

Any other Canadian trackers finding similar-maybe you're getting more life out there away from the big city theatres?

 

ISS isn't not seeing much near me either. Same thing that some got Thursday previews, some didn't.

 

Sales are bad, but expectations are low obviously. I'm at 11 tickets sold within the two Thursday preview theatres in my five theatre radius. I have nothing to really compare it too, but just isn't good.

 

The Friday showtimes just went up, but I wouldn't be surprised if they end up being more robust.  MTC4 is running a popcorn promotion this Friday, and I can see this being a choice for people looking for an excuse to go out.

[abracadabra1998]

On 1/16/2024 at 1:08 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

I.S.S (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	42	31	60	4080	1.47

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		34	15	56.67
Marcus:		0	0	0
Alamo:		24	14	40
Other chains:		2	2	3.33

 

Comps:

0.16x The Creator: $225k

0.3x Haunting in Venice: $325k

0.17x Blue Beetle: $550k

0.47x Gran Turismo: $655k

0.58x Last Voyage of Demeter: $435k

 

Average: $440k

 

Slightly earlier update than usual but I don't think that messes with the numbers too much. This has zero PLFs so I would put the actual $ value from those comps at lower than $400k at this point. Not looking good.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

I.S.S (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	51	20	80	5581	1.43

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		44	10	55
Marcus:		2	2	2.5
Alamo:		29	5	36.25
Other chains:		5	3	6.25

 

Comps (1-day growth rates in parentheses):

0.33x Haunting in Venice: $365k (18%)

0.17x Blue Beetle: $575k (28%)

0.56x Gran Turismo: $785k (11%)

0.58x Last Voyage of Demeter: $435k (34%)

 

Average: $540k

 

I didn't track The Creator which sucks since it's one of the most direct comps I had, but oh well. Pretty good update, lack of PLF still brings it down quite a bit, but its growth rate being at 33% is a good sign perhaps. No final update tomorrow, so I'll go with a flawed final prediction of $450k (+/-100).

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

Bob Marley: One Love T-28: 38.83%

Dune: Part Two T-44: 41.15%

Abigail T-93: 25.17%

Bad Boys 4 T-149: 43.33%

A Quiet Place: Day One T-163: 29.29%

Terrifier 3 T-282: 27.68%

The Wolf Man T-282: 20.13%

 

I.S.S. T-2: 27.21% Awareness

Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

 

Ordinary Angels T-37: 17.66% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 13% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 12% chance of 10M

 

Cabrini T-51: 14.74% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 31% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 26% chance of 10M

[TheFlatLannister]

FLORIDA 

 

I.S.S.

 

Thursday 

 

T-0 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
369	750	70136	1.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 4:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-0

 

(0.395x) of Night Swim $593k 

Comps AVG: $593k

 

Looks like ~$500k-$600k

Edited January 18 by TheFlatLannister

[TheFlatLannister]

Btw I attempted to count the amount of chains i'm covering in Florida and approximate the coverage is closer to 90% of all of Florida

 

*Can't track a few MiniTcs like Epic since it is not on Fandango*

[misterpepp]

Madame Web on sale Jan 29

[el sid]

22 hours ago, Jerri Blank-Diggler said:

Does anyone have the scoop on what is happening with the release of Ava DuVernay's "Origin"? I had read that it would be getting a wide release this coming weekend. However, as theaters are locking in their weekend fare, I'm only seeing "Origin" opening in certain big-city theaters. Has its release switched to limited or to some platform pattern?

 

I live in an urban area of several million people, and "Origin" is opening in a grand total of 1 area theater - about 30 miles away.  (Compare that to *ISS,* which is opening in 22 area theaters.) Looking around the country, I can see that "Origin" is doing Wednesday EA shows, Thursday previews and Friday opening in a limited number of big-city theaters, but it certainly does not seem like any kind of traditional "wide" release. Did I miss the memo about changes in its release?

I also think Origin doesn't get a wide release. It had today showtimes in only 3 of my 7 theaters (the AMCs in NY, San Francisco and LA). Its presales weren't even so bad, it had today for today 66 sold tickets.
Comps: Mack & Rita (1M OW) had 11 sold tickets in 4 theaters,
Mr. Malcolm's List (810k OW) had 24 sold tickets in also 4 theaters

and She Said (2.2M OW) had 102 sold tickets, again with showtimes in 4 of the 7 theaters.

[el sid]

I.S.S., counted today for today:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): no showtimes
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 6 (3 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 5 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 3 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 9 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 31 (3 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 32 (3 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 86.

Comps (all three movies counted on Thursday for Thursday): Midway (925k from previews/17.9M OW) had 300 sold tickets = 260k.
65 (1.22M/12.3M OW) had also, it's no mistake, 300 sold tickets = 340k.
And The Creator (1.6M/14.1M OW) had 1.120 sold tickets = 120k.

Average: 240k for I.S.S.. IMO that's too low. With showtimes in the action- and adventure affine AMC Fresh Meadows it would look better so I go with 300-350k.

[Jerri Blank-Diggler]

1 hour ago, el sid said:

I also think Origin doesn't get a wide release. It had today showtimes in only 3 of my 7 theaters (the AMCs in NY, San Francisco and LA). Its presales weren't even so bad, it had today for today 66 sold tickets.
Comps: Mack & Rita (1M OW) had 11 sold tickets in 4 theaters,
Mr. Malcolm's List (810k OW) had 24 sold tickets in also 4 theaters

and She Said (2.2M OW) had 102 sold tickets, again with showtimes in 4 of the 7 theaters.

 

Very interesting. Something strange happened locally with "Origin" today. It has  disappeared from the 1 local theater that had been listing showtimes for it this weekend, and now Fandango says "This movie starts playing Thurs., Jan 25."  Indeed, 2 local theaters have showtimes posted starting at 5 pm next Thursday, 1/25 (previews, clearly). So maybe the Origin release is becoming more of a platform roll-out after all. Your AMC theaters in NY, SF and LA rolling it out first this weekend certainly sounds like the beginnings of one. And with some word now spreading about Angelina Jolie and other in Hollywood trying to create a To Leslie-style FYC campaign for it to get surprise Oscar nomination(s), perhaps Neon has switched up its 11th hour release strategy.

 

[M37]

3 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

I.S.S.

 

Thursday 

 

T-0 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
369	750	70136	1.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 4:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-0

 

(0.395x) of Night Swim $593k 

Comps AVG: $593k

 

Looks like ~$500k-$600k

Have a hunch walk-ups will be more on par with Mean Girls than Night Swim, put the number more in the $400K range

[Shawn Robbins]

Madame Web long range will be 25-35 (3-day weekend only, minding it has a 6-day window technically).

 

Really curious to see if the marketing team can push that higher in the weeks ahead. I've heard ads aren't reflective of the movie itself, but I have no idea personally having not seen it.

[HummingLemon496]

2 hours ago, misterpepp said:

Madame Web on sale Jan 29