The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[dallas]

This may be a hot take, but I can see the Minecraft movie making a billion dollars. 

[Relevation]

4 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Not expecting much in the beginning. Thinking early comps will be around $8m with some baked in fanrush 

 

With a similar IM as Dune 2021 I would have my early prediction at $65m OW

This one feels like it could really explode. I'm expecting a big start to presales 

I agree Dune probably starts around $8-8.5M, I just expect it to have weaker pace as is the case with recent fan driven blockbusters and a lower IM more in line with something like Songbirds and Snakes than the first Dune. Drops to around $7M actual, $53-56M OW

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 I’m very high on, I think it’s got the starved family market, big nostalgia push, and huge hype to rocket to massive numbers - expecting a $7-8M preview start there which mostly holds the entire time, and then a Sonic 2 tier IM takes it to an $83-87M OW

[HummingLemon496]

1 hour ago, Relevation said:

I agree Dune probably starts around $8-8.5M, I just expect it to have weaker pace as is the case with recent fan driven blockbusters and a lower IM more in line with something like Songbirds and Snakes than the first Dune. Drops to around $7M actual, $53-56M OW

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 I’m very high on, I think it’s got the starved family market, big nostalgia push, and huge hype to rocket to massive numbers - expecting a $7-8M preview start there which mostly holds the entire time, and then a Sonic 2 tier IM takes it to an $83-87M OW

 

[Flip]

16 hours ago, misterpepp said:

Dune 2 on sale Jan 26

 

Hope everyone has a terrific weekend 

Finally 

[Speedorito]

8 hours ago, HummingLemon496 said:

 

Yay Reddit 😒

[dallas]

Don't see where you guys are getting $80M from for Kung Fu Panda 4 when the first barely did $60M and the last two entries couldn't cross even $50M. I'm sure KFP will do great, but these high predictions just seem a little silly for a franchise that couldn't even hit those highs at its peak. 

[TwoMisfits]

Note - this is the tracking and buzz thread, so try to keep posts more related to those topics and less general "this is what I think movie X vs movie Y will do" posts - those are better in weekend, weekday, or specific movie threads.

[Flip]

They’re doing the Dune reissue a slight disservice, it’s only getting one showing per theater but that one showing is sold out at many theaters  

[Driver]

21 hours ago, ChipDerby said:

 

The thing is, Quorum isn't a tracker.

 

What is it then? 

[misterpepp]

18 hours ago, misterpepp said:

Dune 2 on sale Jan 26

 

Hope everyone has a terrific weekend 

An added notice: this is going on sale in the afternoon rather than the usual morning. Am told it’ll be around 12:30p EST.

 

Also: Drive-Away Dolls on sale Feb 5.

[Boxofficerules]

Box Office Seems dead right now, why not rerelease Morbius on the lead up for Madame Web?

[poweranimals]

31 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

Box Office Seems dead right now, why not rerelease Morbius on the lead up for Madame Web?

If they want to convince people to see Madame Web, reminding people of Morbius isn't the way to do it.

[ChipDerby]

2 hours ago, Driver said:

 

What is it then? 

 

They take polls and predict based on previous polls. Like how our trackers compare sales to past sales. Except less reliable.

[keysersoze123]

11 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

Note - this is the tracking and buzz thread, so try to keep posts more related to those topics and less general "this is what I think movie X vs movie Y will do" posts - those are better in weekend, weekday, or specific movie threads.

yes. This thread should become a prediction thread. That does disservice to those providing the data. Take that to the movie threads. 

[abracadabra1998]

On 1/18/2024 at 8:41 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Argylle (T-14):

Day: T-14	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	43	35	83	8206	1.01

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		70	33	84.34
MTC1:		63	29	75.9
Marcus:		2	0	2.41
Alamo:		15	6	18.07
Other chains:		3	0	3.61

 

Comps:

0.25x KOFM: $640k

0.73x The Creator: $985k

0.14x MI7: $990k

0.12x Indiana Jones: $830k

 

Average: $860k

 

Napoleon comp added next update. I welcome other ideas for comps, thinking about male-skewing movies this is what came to mind, but definitely open to others that are more fitting! Still not looking good, but at least it's trending up.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Argylle (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	43	16	99	8206	1.21

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		82	12	82.83
MTC1:		75	12	75.76
Marcus:		4	2	4.04
Alamo:		17	2	17.17
Other chains:		3	0	3.03

 

Comps:

0.26x KOFM: $670k

0.64x The Creator: $870k

0.15x MI7: $1.02 Million

0.13x Indiana Jones: $915k

 

Average: $870k

 

Holding off on the Napoleon comp one more time actually, because of the much smaller window. Basically stayed flat, not good.

 

No sign of One Love tickets starting to sell today.

[emoviefan]

12 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Argylle (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	43	16	99	8206	1.21

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		82	12	82.83
MTC1:		75	12	75.76
Marcus:		4	2	4.04
Alamo:		17	2	17.17
Other chains:		3	0	3.03

 

Comps:

0.26x KOFM: $670k

0.64x The Creator: $870k

0.15x MI7: $1.02 Million

0.13x Indiana Jones: $915k

 

Average: $870k

 

Holding off on the Napoleon comp one more time actually, because of the much smaller window. Basically stayed flat, not good.

 

No sign of One Love tickets starting to sell today.

It's like the marketing strategy they are using for Argyle is not working or something.   Weird

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

1 hour ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Argylle (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	43	16	99	8206	1.21

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		82	12	82.83
MTC1:		75	12	75.76
Marcus:		4	2	4.04
Alamo:		17	2	17.17
Other chains:		3	0	3.03

 

Comps:

0.26x KOFM: $670k

0.64x The Creator: $870k

0.15x MI7: $1.02 Million

0.13x Indiana Jones: $915k

 

Average: $870k

 

Holding off on the Napoleon comp one more time actually, because of the much smaller window. Basically stayed flat, not good.

 

No sign of One Love tickets starting to sell today.

Napoleon is a good comp. Even beyond the Apple connection they likely will have some audience overlap, particularly among the 18-34 crowd. 

[misterpepp]

1 hour ago, abracadabra1998 said:

No sign of One Love tickets starting to sell today.

 

Regal and Marcus both have them up now, along with a couple other small chains. AMC is unfortunately behind.

[Tinalera]

Argylle 

Vancouver and Calgary Canada

Thurs Feb 1 Fri Feb 2 (T-10) Thurs T-11 Fri

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouver	Thurs	3	8	3	2237	2240	0.0013
	Fri	3	19	15	4161	4176	0.0035
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Calgary	Thurs	3	10	0	2690	2690	0
	Fri	3	19	6	5094	5100	0.0011

 

 

Very quiet to Argylle so far up here.

[filmlover]

Didn't know where to put this but Sony will not be appearing at CinemaCon this year.

 

Sony Pictures Skipping CinemaCon 2024 – Deadline