The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TheFlatLannister]

19 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

ORLANDO

 

Deadpool x Wolverine 

 

Thursday 

 

T-66

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
208	4673	40601	11.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 10:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

First 12 hours

(1.245x) of GOTG 3 $21.80M
 

Sold around 1k tickets in the last 8 hours. Keep in mind this is not T-X so once I switch to T-X 30+ days from now, comp will probably be well over $30M for GOTG. Thinking ~8k seats sold by T-30 for ~$37M comp with GOTG vol 3 

ORLANDO

 

Deadpool x Wolverine 

 

Thursday 

 

T-65

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
208	4948	40601	12.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

275

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

2nd day of sales

(1.281x) of GOTG 3 $22.42M

probably the last update for a while. Considering this thing is 60+ days out, I'd say day 2 was amazing. 

[keysersoze123]

Is @M37 no longer around? I think last we saw him was during Zilla OW if I am not wrong. 

[HummingLemon496]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

Is @M37 no longer around? I think last we saw him was during Zilla OW if I am not wrong. 

Their last activity was April 17th 

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Deadpool and Wolverine, Hour 12, T-66, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 1060

New Sales: 477

Growth: 80%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 41

Tickets per Showtime: 25.9

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 73/13

Early Evening: 629/14

Late Evening: 358/14

 

Sales by Format

Non 3D (937/21)

Regular: 1/1

Dolby: 215/5

IMAX: 551/4

VIP: 168/8

4DX: 2/3

 

3D (123/20)

Regular: 10/2

Dolby: 35/4

IMAX: 23/2

VIP: 55/6

 

Comps 

8.908x Day 2 of Dune 2 Previews for $89.1M

2.454x Day 2 Dune 2 Previews+ EA for $29.4M

3.833x Day 7 of The Marvels for $25.6M

5.730x Day 2 of FNAF for $59.0M

0.404x Estimated Hour 22 of Taylor Swift Eras Tour for $15.2M

 

Average: $43.7M

 

Some quick notes:

A solid jump over the course of the day. Dolby sales jumped up the most, potentially as the good IMAX screens got taken.

 

On the comps, I decided to add two Dune scenarios. Ones showing a ridiculous comp, without EA. The other is pretty reasonable. It's worth noting though that Dune was an overperformer in Canada, and pretty front loaded. I'd say it's performance there is one of the brightest signs.

 

Taylor Swift is just a tough comp in general. It quadrupled from it's first and second update, so Deadpool fell pretty hard. Also, no price adjustment for ATP was taken, and Swift had her special pricing strategy in effect (although the plf levels and lack of kids tickets of DP&W means it's probably not that far off).

 

Deadpool and Wolverine, D2, T-65, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 1272

New Sales: 212

Growth: 20%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 41

Tickets per Showtime: 31.0

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 96/13

Early Evening: 723/14

Late Evening: 453/14

 

Sales by Format

Non 3D (1127/21)

Regular: 4/1

Dolby: 268/5

IMAX: 639/4

VIP: 210/8

4DX: 6/3

 

3D (145/20)

Regular: 14/2

Dolby: 43/4

IMAX: 27/2

VIP: 61/6

 

Comps 

8.772x Day 2 of Dune 2 Previews for $87.7M

2.730x Day 2 Dune 2 Previews+ EA for $32.8M

4.659x Day 7 of The Marvels for $30.8M

3.676x Day 2 of FNAF for $37.9M

0.441x Estimated Day 2 of Taylor Swift Eras Tour for $16.6M

 

Average: $41.1M

 

20% growth on day 2 when it had a really strong first day is impressive. This is now ahead of T-1 for Dune Previews to officially be the highest selling film I've tracked since I switched to the 5 theatre radius.

 

I've got a very busy week, and this is a painful manual track, but I want to see at least one more day from this before relegating to the backburner for a while. 

 

I'll need to start dropping comps that don't make that much sense. FNAF was good as a gauge, but it hard a very short window and stops being relevant. Eras Tour is probably good for a little bit, but I lost that one about two weeks out when the app changed.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 5/20/2024 at 5:58 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

FURIOSA

 

Thursday 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
505	3239	97067	3.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

217

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

8

 

COMPS

T-3

(1.457x) of Civil War $4.23M
(0.942x) of Planet Apes $4.71M

(0.578x) of Godzill and Kong $5.49M

Comps average: $4.81M

 

Not impressed with pace to be honest 

FLORIDA 

 

FURIOSA

 

Thursday 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
560	3712	109578	3.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

473

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

55

 

COMPS

T-2

(1.435x) of Civil War $4.16M
(0.889x) of Planet Apes $4.45M

(0.546x) of Godzill and Kong $5.18M

Comps average: $4.60M

 

Yeah, idk this had a great pace up until Deadpool x Wolverine just sucked the air out of the room. Don't really know if $5M previews is happening anymore. 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 5/20/2024 at 6:11 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

THE GARFIELD MOVIE

 

Thursday 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
456	1073	84630	1.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

110

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-3

(0.617x) of Kung Fu Panda 4 $2.35M

Comps average: $2.35M

 

Well, there's at least some sign of life

FLORIDA 

 

THE GARFIELD MOVIE

 

Thursday 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
522	1411	97286	1.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

338

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

66

 

COMPS

T-2

(0.539x) of Kung Fu Panda 4 $2.05M

Comps average: $2.05M

 

oof steep drop today 

[Pinacolada]

11 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

FURIOSA

 

Thursday 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
560	3712	109578	3.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

473

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

55

 

COMPS

T-2

(1.435x) of Civil War $4.16M
(0.889x) of Planet Apes $4.45M

(0.546x) of Godzill and Kong $5.18M

Comps average: $4.60M

 

Yeah, idk this had a great pace up until Deadpool x Wolverine just sucked the air out of the room. Don't really know if $5M previews is happening anymore. 

......

[emoviefan]

11 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

FURIOSA

 

Thursday 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
560	3712	109578	3.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

473

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

55

 

COMPS

T-2

(1.435x) of Civil War $4.16M
(0.889x) of Planet Apes $4.45M

(0.546x) of Godzill and Kong $5.18M

Comps average: $4.60M

 

Yeah, idk this had a great pace up until Deadpool x Wolverine just sucked the air out of the room. Don't really know if $5M previews is happening anymore. 

This really proves how razor thin the line is on current theatrical movie going. Disney could have waited a little longer on DP and W sales but nope do it now and kill the breakout  BO chances for the R Rated movie coming out this week because people spent their  current movie budget for something that comes out 2 months from now. 

[YM!]

On 5/20/2024 at 7:11 PM, YM! said:

Southeast Wisconsin Marcus Theaters Tracking Sample - 5/20/24 - 4 Theaters used (North Shore, Menominee Falls, Brookfield Square, Majestic Cinema

 

Deadpool and Wolverine - 7/26/24 - T-66 days til previews, 16 screens (3 for North Shore Cinema and Brookfield Square, 6 for Majestic Cinema and 4 for Menominee Falls) 42 showings (14 PLF/7 3D PLF/7 3D/14 2D)

650 ticket solds (99 in North Shore, 65 in Menominee Falls, 52 in Brookfield Square, 434 in Majestic Cinema)    (95 2D/509 PLF/46 3D (44 of which are 3D PLF))

• GODDAMN! What a day. As I have said before, it has sold about 10.6x times the amount of Furiosa's T-6. It also in one theater makes up a sizeable percentage of most mid-sized Marvel's T-2 in a span of hours. I do not have any megahits to compare with but this is such a strong start. Definitely feel like we got a potential 25m previews/150m+ opener on our hands. Still don't buy 200m OW but am starting to see 30m previews/175m+ OW as a strong possibility.

 

5/21/24 - Southeastern Wisconsin Marcus Theaters Tracking Sample (North Shore, Menomonee Falls, Brookfield Square and Majestic Cinemas)

 

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (T-2) - 12.5 screens (3 each for North Shore, Menomonee and Brookfield, 4.5 for Majestic split with Garfield) with 34 showings (18 PLF/2D)

- 146 tickets sold (122 PLF/24 2D)

 

Solid growth shown within the past two days although I do think Deadpool tickets slowed its sails. Currently at 53.7% (or 21.7% if we use just NS+MF) of Napoleon’s T-30 minutes before previews at North Shore and Menomonee Falls. Not much has changed from my 4-5m previews prediction.

 

The Garfield Movie (T-2) - 8 screens (2 per theater with Brookfield at 1.5 and Majestic at 2.5 screens) with 27 showings (21 2D/6 3D)

- 85 tickets sold (35 without EA) (30 2D/5 3D)

 

Finally, the fat cat gets off his ass and moves tickets. Still not that strong without EA but is at 75% of IF (T-6.5 hours until previews) and 34.4% of Wish’s North Shore+Menominee Total (T-30 minutes until previews) when you factor EA (26.3% of Wish, if we use the same theaters and include EA). Thinking about 1.5-2.25m Thursday previews including EA but am losing confidence in an OW above 30m.

 

 

 

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga	5/23/24	T-2	12.5		39	20	17	70	146	24	122
The Garfield Movie	5/23/24	T-3	8		2	6	5	9	22
The Garfield Movie	5/23/24	T-2	8		7	8	8	12	35	30		5

Edited May 22 by YM!

[emoviefan]

The thing  with Furiosa is it does not seem like a Walkup movie. This is not a Casual audience type franchise  and those are the franchises that have strong walkups. Bad Boys is a walkup/casual friendly franchise so I think that will really break out in two weeks.

[SpiderByte]

How were Fury Roads walkups?

[Porthos]

42 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

This really proves how razor thin the line is on current theatrical movie going. Disney could have waited a little longer on DP and W sales but nope do it now and kill the breakout  BO chances for the R Rated movie coming out this week because people spent their  current movie budget for something that comes out 2 months from now. 

 

I... I don't think the D&W ticket drop is mattering all that much.  It's not like Furiosa was showing much signs of acceleration (outside of @abracadabra1998 market) before DP3 tickets went on sale.

 

Personally I think the slightly less stellar than expected reviews is mattering much more.

 

 

[emoviefan]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I... I don't think the D&W ticket drop is mattering all that much.  It's not like Furiosa was showing much signs of acceleration (outside of @abracadabra1998 market) before DP3 tickets went on sale.

 

Personally I think the slightly less stellar than expected reviews is mattering much more.

 

 

Yeah but even that is proving the thin line with moviegoers anymore. 85% on RT is not even close to being bad but because it is not Fury Road great it's like people go eh I can wait to streaming. It's really frustrating.

[AniNate]

The Deadpool ticket drop will be old news by Friday

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

FURIOSA

 

Yeah, idk this had a great pace up until Deadpool x Wolverine just sucked the air out of the room.

 

want to kinda push back on this a tiny bit, as just from looking at your own tracking in Florida, warning blinkers started firing off last Fri:

 

Fri Numbers:

On 5/17/2024 at 4:53 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

FURIOSA

 

Thursday 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
497	2691	94881	2.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

121

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-6

(1.459x) of Civil War $4.23M

(0.387x) of Dune 2 $3.60M
(1.006x) of Planet Apes $5.03M

Comps average: $4.29M

 

First meh day since presales started 

 

Sat Numbers:

On 5/18/2024 at 3:00 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

FURIOSA

 

Thursday 

 

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
497	2790	94881	2.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

99

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-5

(0.381x) of Dune 2 $3.54M

(1.459x) of Civil War $4.23M
(1.010x) of Planet Apes $5.05M

(0.633x) of Godzill and Kong $6.02M

Comps average: $4.71M

 

Second straight day of weak growth. Not a great sign. Hopefully this is just a Florida thing. 

 

 

Sun Numbers [rebounded a bit]:

On 5/19/2024 at 3:03 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

FURIOSA

 

Thursday 

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
497	3022	94881	3.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

232

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-4

(0.391x) of Dune 2 $3.64M

(1.508x) of Civil War $4.37M
(1.004x) of Planet Apes $5.02M

(0.634x) of Godzill and Kong $6.02M

Comps average: $4.76M

 

Does look like it's heading to maybe $5M

 

Mon Numbers [first day with DP3 as "competition"]

On 5/20/2024 at 2:58 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

FURIOSA

 

Thursday 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
505	3239	97067	3.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

217

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

8

 

COMPS

T-3

(1.457x) of Civil War $4.23M
(0.942x) of Planet Apes $4.71M

(0.578x) of Godzill and Kong $5.49M

Comps average: $4.81M

 

Not impressed with pace to be honest 

 

I mean, outside of Sunday, you've been signaling ambivalence about the films prospects for a few days now.

 

Still can blow up, but I dunno.  Sometimes the horse just refuses to drink, ya know?

Edited May 22 by Porthos

[ringedmortality]

13 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I... I don't think the D&W ticket drop is mattering all that much.  It's not like Furiosa was showing much signs of acceleration (outside of @abracadabra1998 market) before DP3 tickets went on sale.

 

Personally I think the slightly less stellar than expected reviews is mattering much more.

 

 

I feel like 80 on Metacritic is a pretty strong critical response. Especially since this could have easily received Ten Thousand Years of Longing reception. 

[Porthos]

9 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Yeah but even that is proving the thin line with moviegoers anymore. 85% on RT is not even close to being bad but because it is not Fury Road great it's like people go eh I can wait to streaming. It's really frustrating.

 

I think what the frustrating thing is... This is from a beloved director doing a type of film that isn't done all that much anymore, and so it not blowing up is making folks a bit more... antsy?  Yeah I think that works.

 

(might not help that Fallout literally came out to huge acclaim a month ago on Amazon and that possibly scratched any post-apocalyptic itch that the GA might have had.  That despite it being a *RADICALLY* different take on post-apocalyptic story telling)

((okay, something of a stretch, but it did literally pop in my head just now as a possible minor contributing factor))

 

Still, think it's a bit early to write the obituary for this film. 

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

I feel like 80 on Metacritic is a pretty strong critical response. Especially since this could have easily received Ten Thousand Years of Longing reception. 

 

I mean, fair enough.  More talking about "matter of degree here".  I used "slightly" as an adjective very much on purpose, as I did indeed mean slightly.  Sliver.  Shade.  Teeny bit less. That sort of thing.

 

I do think Furiosa was in a position where any little thing could have sent it wobbling.  That precariousness speaks partially to the film itself, but I will agree that its also a commentary on the overall theater going landscape right now.

 

That being said, as I just alluded to, I still think we should see how the GA takes to the film and how it does in the legs department before coming to any sweeping conclusions about said film.

[AniNate]

Definitely think trying to link the Deadpool ticket drop to a sudden lack of enthusiasm is a stretch

[TheFlatLannister]

15 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

want to kinda push back on this a tiny bit, as just from looking at your own tracking in Florida, warning blinkers started firing off last Fri:

 

Fri Numbers:

 

Sat Numbers:

 

 

Sun Numbers [rebounded a bit]:

 

Mon Numbers [first day with DP3 as "competition"]

 

I mean, outside of Sunday, you've been signaling ambivalence about the films prospects for a few days now.

 

Still can blow up, but I dunno.  Sometimes the horse just refuses to drink, ya know?

That's actually fair. Idk I just expected the bounce back to continue following the T-4 update