The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Kon]

1 hour ago, Grand Cine said:

I think from the marketing point of view they seek to attract the white demographic , we see it with the released music. Ca peut freiner les autres démographiques d'être attirés par le film . The trend we see for films this year is that it is family films that attract a larger and more public audience or outperform on ethnic demography that work the most

I should say Inside Out 2 doesn't seem especially created or promoted to attract a diverse demographic, it just does it.

 

There is diversity in the supporting characters, but the story focuses on a white girl and her emotions.

Edited June 21 by Kon

[abracadabra1998]

Deadline just reported $1.45 Million for Bikeriders from “advance screenings and Thursday previews”

 

Underperformed in my market for sure but I wonder how much was actually EA versus Thursday 

[PlatnumRoyce]

2 hours ago, Menor the Destroyer said:

Nah, I think that is true from what I've seen. Younger audiences tend to drive a little more frontloading (not applying to family films but stuff targeting teenagers and younger adults). My guess is that younger casual viewers are more likely to just spontaneously go that day and older casual viewers would rather schedule a viewing a few days later.

 

Would be interesting maybe to look at this systematically, though the demographic data we have tends to be somewhat irregular since its often just what Deadline decides to post.

Movio.co has a systematic dataset to play around with in weekend insights (though they have some pretty strong "you can't do anything with the IP on this website" terms and conditions).

There is a clear age shift over time. e.g. the over 50 crowd they significantly underindex on OW.

https://vistagroup.co.nz/blog/aarp-movio-over-50. While I'm citing a specific link there, this "age evolution" story is told on their "across the movie isle" podcast and in other sources.

Edited June 21 by PlatnumRoyce

[TheFlatLannister]

On 6/13/2024 at 11:27 AM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Horizon

 

T-14

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
297	171	37595	0.45%

^{*numbers taken as of 11:00AM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-14

(0.104x) of Furosia $363k

(0.148x) of Civil War $429k

(0.144x) of Fall Guy $332k

Comps average: $375k

 

Terrible start, not shocking. Looks like even exhibitors don't believe in it as this is easily the lowest allocation in showings i've seen since tracking Florida. 

FLORIDA 

 

Horizon

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
319	443	60195	0.74%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

29

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-6

(0.165x) of Furiosa $576k

(0.240x) of Civil War $697k

(0.593x) of Challengers $949k

Comps average: $741k

 

Pretty good recovery considering this will underindex in metropolitan MTCs

[Relevation]

On 6/20/2024 at 1:04 PM, Relevation said:

GHOST: RITE HERE RITE NOW 

1.09x of The Chosen: Season 4 episodes 1-3 ($1.57M)

1.92x of Ordinary Angels ($548K)

2.05x of Spy x Family Code: White ($1.37M)

AVERAGE: $1.16M (do not take this seriously whatsoever lmao)

Hey yooooo my comp average was actually almost spot on in the end let’s go

 

[Cooper Legion]

Generally speaking “walkup”=same day sales. Too hard to measure otherwise (and would be extremely low and less meaningful)

[Relevation]

34 minutes ago, Legion Again said:

Generally speaking “walkup”=same day sales. Too hard to measure otherwise (and would be extremely low and less meaningful)

The way I tend to generally look at it is 

 

T-0 (day of) - walkups, same day sales, where all movies are supposed to surge

T-7 to T-1 - last week late pace, where general audience movies usually find their stride and start going up considerably 

D5 to T-8 - bottom of the U curve, low sales volume throughout unless movie is huge

D1 to D4 - early initial sales rush, when the hardcore fans buy tickets and the built in interest is tested 

[Poseidon]

I'm not sure if Twisters delivered the meme-worthy money shot in the trailers I expected to deliver. 

Without the connection to the first one in terms of actors and nostalgia and also a lack of appeal to the tiktok-generation, I would see this one as a succes, if it would go the Meg or San Andreas-route. A win would be to avoid a ID4-2 type of humiliation. But that one seems pretty safe for now. 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 6/18/2024 at 9:27 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

TWISTERS

 

Thursday 

 

T-30

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
548	1603	107948	1.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-30

(0.486x) of Dune 2 $4.52M
Comps AVG: $4.52M 

 

Selling around 9 tickets per a day. Pace has been very anemic after pretty good start. Dune comp is the only one I have this far out

FLORIDA 

 

TWISTERS

 

Thursday 

 

T-27

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
548	1677	107948	1.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

34

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-27

(0.474x) of Dune 2 $4.41M
Comps AVG: $4.41M 

 

Is this good? Yes

Am i seeing a $70M+ OW? No, but there's still time I guess. Seeing more like $40M-$50M

 

(Don't know if this makes sense comp-wise, but Garfield is at $5.14M) 

[crazymoviekid]

11 hours ago, crazymoviekid said:

The Bikeriders:

 

Final Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 15 Tickets

Theater 2: 26 Tickets

 

Back to Black: $.33M

Challengers: $1.33M

KotFM: $1.54M

Asteroid City: $.55M

Elvis: $1.02M 

 

Very healthy final. Sticking around $1.25M

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 14 Tickets

Theater 2: 31 Tickets

 

Back to Black: $1.55M

Challengers: $1.40M

KotFM: $2.10M

Asteroid City: $1.70M

Elvis: $1.71M 

 

Good day. Feeling we're inching up to $1.5M+

The Bikeriders: 

 

Final Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 34 Tickets

Theater 2: 55 Tickets

 

Back to Black: $1.58M

Challengers: $1.54M

KotFM: $2.12M

Asteroid City: $1.31M

Elvis: $2.11M 

 

Pretty good final day. Going for that $2.1M

[keysersoze123]

On 6/20/2024 at 7:01 PM, keysersoze123 said:

A Quiet Place: Day One MTC1

Previews(T-7) - 30281/523978 609879.25 2563 shows +3792

Friday - 20512/965878 397914.90 4732 shows +2902

 

+2 (and few hours) of data. Its doing well. Definitely looking at 50m OW. 

A Quiet Place: Day One MTC1

Previews(T-6) - 32283/526248 648723.39 2570 shows +2002 

Friday - 22622/966263 437411.88 4736 shows +2110

 

Slowly going up. Monday pace will be critical to see where it ends up. its ahead of Apes at the moment. So still going for 6/50 OW. 

[M37]

4 hours ago, Relevation said:

The way I tend to generally look at it is 

 

T-0 (day of) - walkups, same day sales, where all movies are supposed to surge

T-7 to T-1 - last week late pace, where general audience movies usually find their stride and start going up considerably 

D5 to T-8 - bottom of the U curve, low sales volume throughout unless movie is huge

D1 to D4 - early initial sales rush, when the hardcore fans buy tickets and the built in interest is tested 

My general view, with understanding that there are day of the week effects in sales patterns, and that length of pre-sale period will impact shape the curve ultimately takes 

• D1 through D7 - initial sales burst (giving a whole week for those day of week effect to balance out) 
• D8 up to T14 - bottom of U curve 
• T14 to T7 - initial ramp up 
• T7 to T0 (or T-F) final ramp up (often sub- divided into T7 to T4, T4 to T1, and T0/T-F, which I agree the final day is the general definition of walk-ups)

There is some correlation and predictive value in the T14 to T7 growth rate, but often a lot of external factors to account for (length of pre-sale period, holidays, what other films open that week), so not as reliable as those closer to release. But I generally check out of most tracking values after the initial burst until T-14, unless it’s an event film and/or has reliable comps that give more weight to those T-28/21 to T-15 projected values 

 

 

Edited June 22 by M37

[Issac Newton]

Kalki 2898 AD (T-5)

 

$2,001,394 / 65,728 tix sold (3,502 Shows)

 

941 Locs. Incl. Canada $2.2M Pre-sales 

 

All Eyes on RRR ($2.75M USA Pre-sales) for No.1 Pre-sales for any Indian Title in USA/Canada

[BOfficeStats]

On Fandango, Xfinity Rewards is offering Xfinity Rewards Members: Despicable Me 4, Buy One, Get One Free (Up to $15 Off).  Offer ends July 7 and it must be redeemed by July 14.

https://www.xfinity.com/rewards

[Porthos]

On 6/21/2024 at 1:13 AM, Porthos said:

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-35 days and counting

 

Total Seats Sold Today

63

 

T-35 Comp                 TOO EARLY TO TAKE SERIOUSLY EDITION

%

Sold T-35

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

BP2

127.15

193

4210

0/294

32812/37022

11.37%

16800

31.86%

35.60m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       1145/12925  [8.86% sold]
Matinee:      292/4469  [6.53% | 5.45% of all tickets sold]
3D:               570/6800  [8.38% | 10.65% of all tickets sold]
PLF:          2799/11535  [24.27% | 52.29% of all tickets sold]
———    
CM EQUIV    55 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV    57 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking

 

====

 

So, on the one hand, as can be seen by the tickets sold for BP2, BP2 was still in its initial surge. Thus that comp is gonna be coming down for a while (last night it was at 36.87m, so it's already dropped 1m+ in just a day).  On the other hand, DP3 is still gonna be an R-rated film, not to mention ATP hikes since 2022.  Also might be some slight differences in audience given it might pull in some non-MCU folks who were mainly following the Fox X-Men films.  Maybe.  At the edges.

 

Either way, that comp is gonna come down for a while.  Maybe a long while depending on how the bottom of the U-curves compare.  At the same time, the comp will very likely have to be adjusted upwards at the end, so swings and roundabouts.

 

Be interesting to see how long it takes to stabilize and where it does.

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-34 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	240	28229	33623	5394	16.04%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

41

 

T-34 Comp                 TOO EARLY TO TAKE SERIOUSLY EDITION

%

Sold T-34

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

BP2

123.18

169

4379

0/294

32643/37022

11.83%

16800

32.11%

34.49m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      1145/12925  [8.86% sold]
Matinee:    292/4469  [6.53% | 5.41% of all tickets sold]
3D:             573/6800  [8.43% | 10.62% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        2822/11535  [24.46% | 52.32% of all tickets sold]
———    
CM EQUIV        38 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV    41 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking

[BOfficeStats]

12 hours ago, vafrow said:

Off topic, but someone pointed this out on Reddit, but Adil and Bilal gave an interview with Variety, and they said that they were following the box office tracking of BB:RoD, even talking about how it's compared and tracked against other similar films. They cite Reddit, but as Reddit gets the bulk of it's info from here, that's a pretty direct shoutout to the work being done here.

 

Good work gang. And to any other filmmakers that end up here, I hope our little nerdy hobby has some value to you.

I'm going to apologize for my role in letting Reddit take the credit here.  They did almost no Bad Boys analysis and tracking until opening Thursday.  

Edited June 22 by BOfficeStats

[vafrow]

51 minutes ago, BOfficeStats said:

I'm going to apologize for my role in letting Reddit take the credit here.  They did almost no Bad Boys analysis and tracking until opening Thursday.  

 

I can't speak for everyone else obviously, but I have no issue with credit being doled out. 

 

Based on the comments said, it's clear that the director pair was looking at comp data at a detailed enough level that they understood the process it seems. They may have said Reddit, but that's where they likely stumbled onto the data. They may have ended up here, but you're not going to reference an obscure website in an interview with Variety.

 

You played a role in making the data accessible to people who seemed to get an important use out of it. 

 

Again, speaking for myself only, I'm just happy that my work may have gotten used like that. Although, I went back and reviewed my comments, and I may not have been the most glowing in my comments in the early stages of the track. I probably wasn't helping their anxiety over the forecast.

[TwoMisfits]

Rather than totally free tickets like KFP4 got, XFinity has just released a BOGO to DM4 for all Xfinity Reward members...

 

Getting the ball rolling for the kid movie...

[vafrow]

On 6/15/2024 at 7:10 AM, vafrow said:

 

Deadpool and Wolverine, T-41, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 1866

New Sales since T-48: 78

Growth: 4%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 41

Tickets per Showtime: 45.5

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 190/13

Early Evening: 998/14

Late Evening: 678/14

 

Sales by Format

Non 3D (1578/21)

Regular: 7/1

Dolby: 393/5

IMAX: 794/4

VIP: 372/8

4DX: 12/3

 

3D (288/20)

Regular: 34/2

Dolby: 128/4

IMAX: 40/2

VIP: 86/6

 

Comps 

No suitable comps available 

 

 Sales are expectedly slowing down. We're still a few weeks away from when things should pick up.

 

Deadpool and Wolverine, T-34, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 2002

New Sales since T-41: 136

Growth: 7%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 41

Tickets per Showtime: 48.8

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 204/13

Early Evening: 1037/14

Late Evening: 761/14

 

Sales by Format

Non 3D (1667/21)

Regular: 7/1

Dolby: 407/5

IMAX: 848/4

VIP: 392/8

4DX: 13/3

 

3D (335/20)

Regular: 57/2

Dolby: 133/4

IMAX: 40/2

VIP: 101/6

 

Comps 

No suitable comps available 

 

Staying at about 1% growth a day isn't too bad at this stage. I'll need to see what's available, but will hopefully be able to have a comp by the next update. We're starting to approach that zone.

[vafrow]

On 6/16/2024 at 8:22 AM, vafrow said:

 

Twisters, T-33 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 5

New Sales since T-40: 1

Growth: 25%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.3

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

EA sales: 11

 

Tickets by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 3/5

Early Evening: 2/6

Late Evening: 0/6

 

Tickets by Format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 3/8

IMAX: 1/6

4DX: 1/3

 

Comps

1.250x Fall Guy for $3.9M

 

It's still really early, but this really feels like Fall Guy to me. Early start, but low sales, with a bit of extra activity with the EA show the day before. I'm hoping that there's regional biases at play here, and that a ethnically diverse Toronto suburb catchment area doesn't capture the middle America interest that this is going for.

 

 

 

Twisters, T-27 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 9

New Sales since T-33: 4

Growth: 80%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 18

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.5

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

EA sales: 24

 

Tickets by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 3/5

Early Evening: 6/6

Late Evening: 0/6

 

Tickets by Format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 7/8

IMAX: 1/6

4DX: 1/3

 

Previews Comps

2.250x Fall Guy for $7.1M

0.643x KOTPOTA for $3.2M

 

EA Comp

1.143x Fall Guy for $0.9M

 

I've been meaning to get an update out on this as the forecasting has been showing up the last few days.

 

We're starting to see some activity. Pacing a bit ahead of Fall Guy, both on previews and EA is encouraging. Especially since Fall Guy had a lot more aggressive marketing campaign at the outset. 

 

The reality is that it's still low numbers overall, so it's hard to read too much this far out. I wouldn't look at these numbers and throw out a $70M opener like is being seen elsewhere, but I'm not ruling it out.