The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[emoviefan]

8 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

ORLANDO

 

Deadpool x Wolverine 

 

Thursday 

 

T-10

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
244	10366	46659	22.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

245

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

14

*2 sellouts

COMPS

T-10

(1.704x) of GOTG 3 $29.81M

Not a great day. Starting to worry about $30M+ previews. 

Wonder if it is just hitting the R rated wall now?  Also not having reviews or reactions yet is keeping the GA and Casuals who are not super invested on the fence right now is  possible. At the same time the GA/Casuals wait to the last week anyway.

[Flip]

Alien Romulus D4 (T-31)

 

6 showtimes/14 tix sold

 

its only playing in two theaters but this isn’t a very strong number: 39% Twisters first day. I think part of the reason why sales aren’t higher is because there’s an IMAX theater near one of my theaters that has pretty good sales, so most people are probably choosing to see in IMAX

[AniNate]

I'm sure a lot of people will start tracking Alien once Deadpool is out of the way.

[abracadabra1998]

1 minute ago, AniNate said:

I'm sure a lot of people will start tracking Alien once Deadpool is out of the way.

My first update for that will be on Thursday 

[Ryan C]

13 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Wonder if it is just hitting the R rated wall now?  Also not having reviews or reactions yet is keeping the GA and Casuals who are not super invested on the fence right now is  possible. At the same time the GA/Casuals wait to the last week anyway.

 

I'm sure it was just a bad day. Especially since reactions haven't dropped yet, I'm sure the pace will get better from here and should accelerate during the final week. The reactions would have to be genuinely terrible for it to go below $30M in previews, but I don't think that'll happen. 

 

Also, I said it before and I'll say it again. More than 70% of the audience who showed up for Spider-Man: No Way Home on opening weekend was 18-45 years old. I don't think the R-rating will affect Deadpool and Wolverine that much. 

[Relevation]

If Deadpool misses $30M previews like the data in Sacto and Orlando is potentially suggesting, then I think it could open under IO2 in the $140-150M range 

[emoviefan]

Another thing I would say about not overreacting to some of these Deadpool presales is remember  in late Feb going into that last week for Dune Part 2 when people panicked that the presales were stagnating and 70 million was not even a guarantee.  The hard core fanbases have bought their tickets and the GA aka not as invested are waiting. It happened there it will happen here most likely.

[TheFlatLannister]

We also have to remember pace is going to be wonky and hard to decipher because Deadpool has a 60+ day window

Edited July 16 by TheFlatLannister

[lorddemaxus]

5 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Another thing I would say about not overreacting to some of these Deadpool presales is remember  in late Feb going into that last week for Dune Part 2 when people panicked that the presales were stagnating and 70 million was not even a guarantee.  The hard core fanbases have bought their tickets and the GA aka not as invested are waiting. It happened there it will happen here most likely.

The problem with Dune was EA taking away a substantial amount of sales away from Thurs previews. It had a rebound after EA screenings were over.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 7/14/2024 at 5:32 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

TWISTERS

 

Thursday 

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
557	3708	110297	3.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

270

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-4

(1.232x) of Apes $6.16M

(2.158x) of Fall Guy $4.96M

(1.227x) of Furiosa $4.29M
Comps AVG: $5.14M 

 

Pace improved just a bit, but still not anything that will move the needle. Still looks like ~$5M to me

FLORIDA 

 

TWISTERS

 

Thursday 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
557	4554	110297	4.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

846

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-3

(1.324x) of Apes $6.62M

(2.474x) of Fall Guy $5.69M

(1.406x) of Furiosa $4.92M
Comps AVG: $5.74M 

 

Pace is still improving. Best day so far. 

[Ryan C]

6 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Another thing I would say about not overreacting to some of these Deadpool presales is remember  in late Feb going into that last week for Dune Part 2 when people panicked that the presales were stagnating and 70 million was not even a guarantee.  The hard core fanbases have bought their tickets and the GA aka not as invested are waiting. It happened there it will happen here most likely.

 

Funny story, I wasn't around in this thread when Dune: Part Two was opening up, but I went back earlier in the thread and saw what was being posted between Thursday February 29 and Monday March 4 of that movie's opening. It doesn't take much to say that it was definitely chaotic and there was a lot of doom and gloom before that movie had amazing walk-up business that got itself to an 80M+ opening. 

 

All I hope for is that the same thing won't happen again with Deadpool and Wolverine. Even if it does manage to do as well as we all hope ($200M+ opening) I don't think it's worth sitting there for hours on end before the weekend is over worrying if it will come in under expectations. 

[Cmasterclay]

I randomly checked Oklahoma City (which I've never tracked and have zero baseline for), and it's definitely selling alot better than in South Florida. Nothing crazy or anything though.

Edited July 16 by Cmasterclay

[TheFlatLannister]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

I randomly checked Oklahoma City (which I've never tracked and have zero baseline for), and it's definitely selling alot better than in South Florida. Nothing crazy or anything though.

I don't think Twisters has enough urban pull to really break out, there in lies the problem

[AniNate]

It seems to be doing a lot better in the "South" of Florida (that is the northern parts)

[Cmasterclay]

10 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I don't think Twisters has enough urban pull to really break out, there in lies the problem

It does seem like it did quite well in your tracking! Quadrupled yesterday's numbers.

[Eric the Marxist]

Quorum Updates

Trap T-18: 27.73% Awareness, 50.65% Interest

Piece by Piece T-88: 14.47% Awareness, 30.79% Interest

Terrifier 3 T-88: 23.06% Awareness, 38.44% Interest

Gladiator II T-130: 33.8% Awareness, 45.67% Interest

Mickey 17 T-200: 8.29% Awareness, 31.95% Interest

 

Twisters T-4: 61.24% Awareness, 57.5% Interest

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 89% chance of 30M, 86% chance of 40M, 75% chance of 50M, 57% chance of 60M, 46% chance of 70M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 91% chance of 40M, 82% chance of 50M, 73% chance of 60M, 45% chance of 70M, 

Final Interest: 78% chance of 20M, 61% chance of 30M, 48% chance of 40M, 35% chance of 50M, 23% chance of 60M, 17% chance of 70M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 20M, 93% chance of 40M, 71% chance of 50M, 57% chance of 60M, 36% chance of 70M

 

Deadpool & Wolverine T-11: 71.28% Awareness, 68.55% Interest

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 90M, 80% chance of 100M, 20% chance of 200M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 100M, 50% chance of 200M

Final Interest: 78% chance of 100M, 11% chance of 200M

DC/MCU Interest: 83% chance of 100M, 17% chance of 200M

 

Alien: Romulus T-32: 30.49% Awareness, 43.81% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 80% chance of 10M, 55% chance of 20M, 33% chance of 30M, 14% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 82% chance of 10M, 54% chance of 20M, 36% chance of 30M, 18% chance of 40M

T-30 Interest: 60% chance of 10M, 35% chance of 20M, 20% chance of 30M, 10% chance of 40M

Horror Interest: 67% chance of 10M, 37% chance of 20M, 15% chance of 30M, 4% chance of 40M

 

Blink Twice T-39: 20.66% Awareness, 42.82% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 54% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 38% chance of 10M, 12% chance of 20M

T-30 Interest: 60% chance of 10M, 35% chance of 20M

Low Interest: 29% chance of 10M, 7% chance of 20M

 

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice T-53: 60.98% Awareness, 64.66% Interest

T-60 Awareness: 100% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 100M

T-60 Interest: 100% chance of 100M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 100M

[emoviefan]

22 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

 

Funny story, I wasn't around in this thread when Dune: Part Two was opening up, but I went back earlier in the thread and saw what was being posted between Thursday February 29 and Monday March 4 of that movie's opening. It doesn't take much to say that it was definitely chaotic and there was a lot of doom and gloom before that movie had amazing walk-up business that got itself to an 80M+ opening. 

 

All I hope for is that the same thing won't happen again with Deadpool and Wolverine. Even if it does manage to do as well as we all hope ($200M+ opening) I don't think it's worth sitting there for hours on end before the weekend is over worrying if it will come in under expectations. 

Yeah it got a little insane those last few days for Dune Part 2 and that's saying something for this place. It's safe to say that DP and W has a lot more Casual Appeal than that did so the potential for walkups to be insane is pretty big. Assuming the movie is good and the early WOM is. 

[Maaatt]

I guess I'm not quite as gloomy on Twisters  as some here (as of now.. could change by Thursday). I think $50-60 million opening weekend seems very doable given how its tracking as of now relative to Bad Boys 4 & Apes, two of this summers earlier pretty general audience friendly movies that both opened to 50-something. 

 

I don’t think Nope is a great comp because of the Jordan Peele element which imo essentially eventized that opening for a segment of the audience which elevated its previews number relative to what it would of otherwise been as a non-sequel original movie and i struggle to see any selling point with Twisters that would lead to the same type of thing here (at least to the same level), it just does not scream “front loaded” to me. Yes, technically its a sequel, but i mean is it really? They’re basically just updating a two decade old story concept of following storm chasers with an entirely new cast and story, so i don’t see it playing out like a true sequel especially given the length of time its been since Twister. I’m sure Twister has its diehard fans but is their really that many 25+ years later? Its not a fanboy like property. This isn’t directed by a marquee director with a dedicated fanbase (like a Nolan, Tarantino, etc.) that will show up as soon as they can. I do think there are people reminded of the original thanks to this movie and remember they enjoyed it (and there may be some nostalgia aspect to it too).

 

I get theres a big question mark still on if the non-white audience walkups will be there which we’ll just have to wait and see, personally i’m not sold either way yet. I don’t think the cast is the selling point though on this movie, the disaster spectacle is, similar to the selling point on  creature features being the monsters/dinos/apes. 

[emoviefan]

8 minutes ago, Eric Onion said:

Quorum Updates

Trap T-18: 27.73% Awareness, 50.65% Interest

Piece by Piece T-88: 14.47% Awareness, 30.79% Interest

Terrifier 3 T-88: 23.06% Awareness, 38.44% Interest

Gladiator II T-130: 33.8% Awareness, 45.67% Interest

Mickey 17 T-200: 8.29% Awareness, 31.95% Interest

 

Twisters T-4: 61.24% Awareness, 57.5% Interest

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 89% chance of 30M, 86% chance of 40M, 75% chance of 50M, 57% chance of 60M, 46% chance of 70M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 91% chance of 40M, 82% chance of 50M, 73% chance of 60M, 45% chance of 70M, 

Final Interest: 78% chance of 20M, 61% chance of 30M, 48% chance of 40M, 35% chance of 50M, 23% chance of 60M, 17% chance of 70M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 20M, 93% chance of 40M, 71% chance of 50M, 57% chance of 60M, 36% chance of 70M

 

Deadpool & Wolverine T-11: 71.28% Awareness, 68.55% Interest

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 90M, 80% chance of 100M, 20% chance of 200M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 100M, 50% chance of 200M

Final Interest: 78% chance of 100M, 11% chance of 200M

DC/MCU Interest: 83% chance of 100M, 17% chance of 200M

 

Alien: Romulus T-32: 30.49% Awareness, 43.81% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 80% chance of 10M, 55% chance of 20M, 33% chance of 30M, 14% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 82% chance of 10M, 54% chance of 20M, 36% chance of 30M, 18% chance of 40M

T-30 Interest: 60% chance of 10M, 35% chance of 20M, 20% chance of 30M, 10% chance of 40M

Horror Interest: 67% chance of 10M, 37% chance of 20M, 15% chance of 30M, 4% chance of 40M

 

Blink Twice T-39: 20.66% Awareness, 42.82% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 54% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 38% chance of 10M, 12% chance of 20M

T-30 Interest: 60% chance of 10M, 35% chance of 20M

Low Interest: 29% chance of 10M, 7% chance of 20M

 

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice T-53: 60.98% Awareness, 64.66% Interest

T-60 Awareness: 100% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 100M

T-60 Interest: 100% chance of 100M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 100M

Those Beetlejuice numbers 7 weeks out are pretty impressive. Assuming Burton does not shit the bed which is always possible it could be big.

[vafrow]

4 minutes ago, Eric Onion said:

Quorum Updates

Trap T-18: 27.73% Awareness, 50.65% Interest

Piece by Piece T-88: 14.47% Awareness, 30.79% Interest

Terrifier 3 T-88: 23.06% Awareness, 38.44% Interest

Gladiator II T-130: 33.8% Awareness, 45.67% Interest

Mickey 17 T-200: 8.29% Awareness, 31.95% Interest

 

Twisters T-4: 61.24% Awareness, 57.5% Interest

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 89% chance of 30M, 86% chance of 40M, 75% chance of 50M, 57% chance of 60M, 46% chance of 70M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 91% chance of 40M, 82% chance of 50M, 73% chance of 60M, 45% chance of 70M, 

Final Interest: 78% chance of 20M, 61% chance of 30M, 48% chance of 40M, 35% chance of 50M, 23% chance of 60M, 17% chance of 70M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 20M, 93% chance of 40M, 71% chance of 50M, 57% chance of 60M, 36% chance of 70M

 

Deadpool & Wolverine T-11: 71.28% Awareness, 68.55% Interest

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 90M, 80% chance of 100M, 20% chance of 200M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 100M, 50% chance of 200M

Final Interest: 78% chance of 100M, 11% chance of 200M

DC/MCU Interest: 83% chance of 100M, 17% chance of 200M

 

Alien: Romulus T-32: 30.49% Awareness, 43.81% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 80% chance of 10M, 55% chance of 20M, 33% chance of 30M, 14% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 82% chance of 10M, 54% chance of 20M, 36% chance of 30M, 18% chance of 40M

T-30 Interest: 60% chance of 10M, 35% chance of 20M, 20% chance of 30M, 10% chance of 40M

Horror Interest: 67% chance of 10M, 37% chance of 20M, 15% chance of 30M, 4% chance of 40M

 

Blink Twice T-39: 20.66% Awareness, 42.82% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 54% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 38% chance of 10M, 12% chance of 20M

T-30 Interest: 60% chance of 10M, 35% chance of 20M

Low Interest: 29% chance of 10M, 7% chance of 20M

 

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice T-53: 60.98% Awareness, 64.66% Interest

T-60 Awareness: 100% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 100M

T-60 Interest: 100% chance of 100M

Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 100M

 

I guess Quorum is bullish on Beetlejuice. 

 

I still don't fully understand Quorums metrics, but anything pointing to an opening north of $100M for a September movie is a good sign.