The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[AniNate]

Flipped through Canton's 26 showtimes tomorrow and there's just one late morning and the two latest nighttime shows that haven't sold any tickets yet. They may very well have needed every single one of those.

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Maaaan, I wonder if I have any comp that would have pointed to 10m+.  There's under-performance and then there's this.  Can't even blame the AMC effect or capacity.  Sacto just didn't care at all for this flick, relative to other markets.

 

...

 

...

 

...

 

Guess it's a good thing it was  a Quick and Dirty, as obviously my model was trying to save me from Sacramento laying an egg. 

it has to be the biggest preview which you did not track properly in past few years. That is bit of a loss as we will see similar movies after this. 

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

it has to be the biggest preview which you did not track properly in past few years. That is bit of a loss as we will see similar movies after this. 

 

Biggest since, probably, Incredibles 2.  But I just couldn't muster the will to track it thanks to DP3's insane length, IO2 peaking, and Twisters own insanely long pre-sale period. 

 

And when I *DID* take another look internally at T-17 and T-14 and even T-12 or so, it was just so anemic here that it didn't look to be worth it.  Around T-14 it was still pointing to 5.5m, and that was against late bloomers!

 

Sometimes a film just lays an egg in a market relatively speaking.  Have to think this was the biggest no-reason-for-it under-performance here since Joker, probably.

Edited July 19 by Porthos

[AniNate]

I will say the urban west coast still does not seem to be biting much. Painful to flip through the Baldwin Hills/Crenshaw times

 

 

Edited July 19 by AniNate

[wildphantom]

Empire saying $31 million is the floor for Friday plus previews 

[rehpyc]

16 hours ago, John Marston said:

 

based on?

IYKYK

[keysersoze123]

@rehpyc Any Deadpool comps?

[rehpyc]

19 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

@rehpyc Any Deadpool comps?

None just yet. Hope to have Sunday.

[Krissykins]

3 hours ago, wildphantom said:

Empire saying $31 million is the floor for Friday plus previews 

Including previews. Plus would indicate $41.7m

[wildphantom]

3 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Including previews. Plus would indicate $41.7m

yeah, what I meant. Not true Friday, but everything all bundled in like usual. 

[Relevation]

On 7/17/2024 at 11:19 PM, Relevation said:

TWO THEATER MN PRESALES TRACK (T-1/0)

07/18/24

Twisters - 157 tickets sold

 

COMPS

Twisters

0.84x of Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire ($8.40M)

1.25x of Civil War ($3.61M)

1.29x of Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire ($6.04M)

1.29x of Bad Boys: Ride or Die ($7.56M)

1.31x of Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga ($4.58M)

1.96x of The Fall Guy ($4.61M)

AVERAGE: $5.74M

 

To walkup or not to walkup tis the question on this Twisters preview eve. But nah seriously, Twisters did do pretty solid in my market and exceeded my earlier conservative expectations. Last week of pace in other markets is pretty exceptional, and it does appear to somewhat be bucking the trend of more white skewing movies struggling to finish strong. I do find it interesting that the more white skewing movies like Civil War, Furiosa, and The Fall Guy are spitting out weaker comps in the $3.5-4.5M range, while more Latino heavy walkup giants like GxK and Bad Boys have extremely strong comps in the $7.5-8.5M range. Which path it goes down tomorrow could make all the difference, or it could play more like Ghostbusters in the middle with just average decent walkups. I lean towards that outcome. Predicting $5.5-6.0M THU and a $52-57M OW.

So it did just end up playing like GxK and Bad Boys, fair enough 

[Inceptionzq]

Just realized I have been doing the wrong days for Twister at MTC4 

Been doing the 19th-22nd as Thurs-Sun. That's why the "Thursday" number looked massive compared to your sample @vafrow. It was really the Friday number. I'd guess that in reality, the Thursday number was behind the Friday number.

[vafrow]

6 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Just realized I have been doing the wrong days for Twister at MTC4 

Been doing the 19th-22nd as Thurs-Sun. That's why the "Thursday" number looked massive compared to your sample @vafrow. It was really the Friday number. I'd guess that in reality, the Thursday number was behind the Friday number.

 

No worries. It didn't make sense, but I also don't have many opportunities to reconcile against a national average. I've really appreciated your datasets as it offers me that.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

MTC4 Deadpool & Wolverine

T-7 Thursday: 44541/364483

T-8 Friday: 34907/272260

T-9 Saturday: 26197/284575

T-10 Sunday: 11645/283162 

MTC4 Deadpool & Wolverine

T-6 Thursday: 47558/364483

T-7 Friday: 37733/272260

T-8 Saturday: 28262/284575

T-9 Sunday: 12563/283162

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

MTC4 Twisters

T-2 Saturday: 7492/357987

T-3 Sunday: 3028/355395

 

10 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

MTC4 Twisters

T-1 Saturday: 8349/355342

MTC4 Twisters

T-1 Saturday: 11771/355342

T-2 Sunday: 4420/355395

[charlie Jatinder]

44 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

MTC4 Deadpool & Wolverine

T-6 Thursday: 47558/364483

T-7 Friday: 37733/272260

T-8 Saturday: 28262/284575

T-9 Sunday: 12563/283162

Roughly I guess 140K+ final. That would be $2.25M. May be $2.5M+ with a better finish. 

 

Strange did $2.08M while Thor was $1.64M.

[TheFlatLannister]

Huh looks like Apes was the best comp for Twisters. It finished 1.616x for $8.08M True Thursday 

[SpiderByte]

26 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Roughly I guess 140K+ final. That would be $2.25M. May be $2.5M+ with a better finish. 

 

Strange did $2.08M while Thor was $1.64M.

....is 200m actually within reach then?

[TheFlatLannister]

On 6/26/2024 at 9:33 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

DEADPOOL x WOLVERINE

 

Thursday 

 

T-29

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
1049	18940	206943	9.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 9:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

6086

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-29

*Don't take this seriously* This is mostly for future comp

 

I don't have any comps but it sold 6k tickets over the past 30ish days which is bonkers.

 

(It has surpassed Inside out 2 final T-0, which I guess doesn't mean much. No other film comes close to those two)

FLORIDA 

 

DEADPOOL x WOLVERINE

 

Thursday 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
1197	30015	253176	11.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 9:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

1482

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-6

*Don't take this too seriously*

(4.319x) of Dune 2 $40.16M 

 

Just pure madness in Florida 

[Ryan C]

1 minute ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

DEADPOOL x WOLVERINE

 

Thursday 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
1197	30015	253176	11.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 9:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

1482

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-6

*Don't take this too seriously*

(4.319x) of Dune 2 $40.16M 

 

Just pure madness in Florida 

 

I'm sure part of that has to do with the Disney Springs location over there. As you would expect, if you release a Disney movie or a Disney adjacent movie, it's gonna overindex at the theater in a Disney Park.