The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[jeffthehat]

Indiana

Deadpool & Wolverine T-3

Sales	Seats	Shows
9834	64436	400

TC = 28

Comps

4.20x Dune 2 T-3 = $42.0m

13.06x Furiosa T-3 = $45.7m

 

AVG = $43.86m

 

No good comps for this from this year I think

Edited July 23 by jeffthehat

[AniNate]

49 minutes ago, KelsieWarner said:

I'm loving the updates in the Box Office Buzz thread! The tracking and pre-sale numbers are always fascinating to see. Anyone have predictions on which upcoming release might surprise us at the box office? It's always fun to see how close (or far off) we are with our guesses!

 

Beetlejuice 2 could be interesting. High Quorum tracking and online reception to most recent trailer seems a lot better. Have to imagine presales will be opening pretty soon for that.

 

One that I'm personally feeling bullish on is Wild Robot. It's a popular book, everyone at Dreamworks seems really high on it, it's premiering at TIFF and seems like it will be a legit awards contender, and at the moment it has seven weeks free of mainstream family competition to leg out.

 

 

 

Edited July 23 by AniNate

[emoviefan]

Really going to be interesting to see how Twisters does these next 3 days.  I am thinking 8+ today 10+ tomorrow discount Tuesday and 6.5+ would be good for wed . Anything less than that  would be a little concerning. Thursday fingers crossed for 5+. That would put 30+ in play for the weekend.

Edited July 23 by emoviefan

[TalismanRing]

NYC Local Regal

 

Deadpool & Wolverine: 774/4837 (17 showings)

Joker: $31.38m (R)
Birds of Prey: $43.61m (R)
The Suicide Squad: $62.52 (R)
Black Widow: $42.75m (PG-13)
Marvels: $55.29 (PG-13)

Venom 2: $68.54m (PG-13)

Barbie: $31.04m (PG-13)

 

Joker had the least amount of growth from Mon to Thur. Venom 2 had the most with big late walk-ups

 

I skipped :

• Eternals and Shang-Chi  - they over performed at my theater by 35% because of  area demographics. 
• AEG and SM:NWH were both far too front loaded with early sellouts to bother for Mon comps. 
• Don't have Thor 3 or WF or Mon #s for Strange or GOTG 3

[TheFlatLannister]

On 7/20/2024 at 10:43 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

DEADPOOL x WOLVERINE

 

Thursday 

 

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
1197	32525	253176	12.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 9:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

2510

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-5

*Don't take this too seriously*

(4.443x) of Dune 2 $41.32M 

 

The madness somehow gets crazier. It might actually quintuple Dune 2 final count by T-0

FLORIDA 

 

DEADPOOL x WOLVERINE

 

Thursday 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
1288	37473	275019	13.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 9:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

2648

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

91

 

COMPS

T-3

*Don't take this too seriously*

(4.391x) of Dune 2 $40.84M 

 

Not much to add just LOL. Just insanity. Also, has massive show count, widest i've ever tracked. 

[Ryan C]

1 minute ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

DEADPOOL x WOLVERINE

 

Thursday 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
1288	37473	275019	13.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 9:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

2648

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

91

 

COMPS

T-3

*Don't take this too seriously*

(4.391x) of Dune 2 $40.84M 

 

Not much to add just LOL. Just insanity. Also, has massive show count, widest i've ever tracked. 

 

I don't doubt this is impressive and I shouldn't take this too seriously, but should there be any concern that this is slightly below where it was at T-5?

[Cooper Legion]

12 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

 

I don't doubt this is impressive and I shouldn't take this too seriously, but should there be any concern that this is slightly below where it was at T-5?

Huh?

[Ryan C]

Just now, Joyous Legion said:

Huh?

 

When @TheFlatLannister was doing the comp for Dune 2, it was slightly lower today than it was on Saturday. 

 

I just wanted to know if there was any specific reason why it went down. 

[keysersoze123]

16 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

DEADPOOL x WOLVERINE

 

Thursday 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
1288	37473	275019	13.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 9:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

2648

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

91

 

COMPS

T-3

*Don't take this too seriously*

(4.391x) of Dune 2 $40.84M 

 

Not much to add just LOL. Just insanity. Also, has massive show count, widest i've ever tracked. 

Why is it impressive when it barely grew from yesterday. It's looking crazy as you have never tracked anything that is fanboy driven across the state.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 7/21/2024 at 6:27 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

ORLANDO

 

Deadpool x Wolverine 

 

Thursday 

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
283	13223	55507	23.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

547

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

39

*2 sellouts

COMPS

T-4

(1.733x) of GOTG 3 $33.36M *10% ATP adjustment 

(1.382x) of Barbenheimer $43.68M

 

Comps AVG: $38.52M

Barbeheimer still coming down. GOTG stays steady (added an arbitrary 10% ATP adjustment to account for PG-13 vs R-rating price discrepancies)

 

Sticking with ~$35M for previews

ORLANDO

 

Deadpool x Wolverine 

 

Thursday 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
288	14255	56743	25.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 9:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

1032

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

5

*2 sellouts

COMPS

T-3

(1.733x) of GOTG 3 $33.92M *10% ATP adjustment (Arbitrary number) 

(1.318x) of Barbenheimer $41.64M

 

Comps AVG: $37.78M

Excellent day. Still increasing against GOTG vol 3 which is of course impressive

[TheFlatLannister]

18 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

 

When @TheFlatLannister was doing the comp for Dune 2, it was slightly lower today than it was on Saturday. 

 

I just wanted to know if there was any specific reason why it went down. 

One of the Regal chains wasn't loading today (some random error) which has over 30+ showings, so number is depressed. 

[Cooper Legion]

19 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

 

When @TheFlatLannister was doing the comp for Dune 2, it was slightly lower today than it was on Saturday. 

 

I just wanted to know if there was any specific reason why it went down. 

It’s over 4x dune so should be expected to decrease every day

[Ryan C]

Just now, TheFlatLannister said:

One of the Regal chains wasn't loading today (some random error) which has over 30+ showings, so number is depressed. 

 

Ok. Thanks for the heads up.

[TheFlatLannister]

If regal chain is back up tomorrow, number will be inflated. However, Deadpool should be outpacing Dune 2 quickly now because Dune didn't have great finish in Florida 

[misterpepp]

5 hours ago, misterpepp said:

Slow times indeed for sale dates.

 

Clearly I spoke too soon.

 

Ryan's World: The Movie - Titan Universe Adventure goes on sale July 26.

[excel1]

11 hours ago, Flip said:

Trap (T-11) 4 days of sales

 

8 showtimes/89 tix sold (+32)

 

.51x AQP Day One (T-15) [3.46m]

 

23 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Trap (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 22 theaters	67	33	70	6411	1.09

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		63	33	90
Other chains:		7	0	10

 

Comps:

2.33x Abigail: $2.33 Million

2.41x Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare: $2.05 Million

4.93x Imaginary: $3.57 Million (17 theaters)

 

Imaginary is the one comp that is PG-13, so maybe a good sign? I'll keep adding more comps as we get closer to it.

 

On 7/18/2024 at 1:01 PM, el sid said:

Trap had today counted for Thursday (August 1) 103 sold tickets (with shows in 5 theaters). 14 days left. 

 

Comps (all four movies counted on Monday of the release week which means Trap has 11 days left) The Watchers (1M from previews) had 73 sold tickets, 

Knock at the Cabin (1.5M) had 303,

Tarot (715k) had 92

and The Strangers: Chapter One (1.2M) had 215 sold tickets.

 

Abigail (1M) had with 6 days left 97 sold tickets. 

And Old (1.5M) had on Monday of the release week for Friday (= 10 days left for Trap to come closer or overtake which will very probably happen) 150 sold tickets. 

 

So overall an ok start. It needs more and bigger cinema halls in California, some are almost full. 

 

On 7/19/2024 at 11:16 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

 

T-2 Week previews comps

Trap - 5,519 (1,707 TC)

 - Elvis - 5,527 (2,328)

 - Crawdads - 5,157 (1,803)

 - Joy Ride - 5,104 (1,564)

 - Black Phone - 4,684 (1,873)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 4,649 (1,980)

 

 

On 7/16/2024 at 11:15 PM, Flip said:

Trap D1 (T-16)

 

8 showtimes/51 tix sold

.76x Twisters (T-16) [???]

.35x AQP Day One (T-16) [2.38m]
 

longlegs comps starts at T-14, but in the end watchers should be a better comp (Trap’s first day was higher than Watchers T-4 mark) but it doesn’t kick in until next week.

 

 

Pretty clear Trap is looking like an overperformer, at least out of the gate. 

Edited July 23 by excel1

[abracadabra1998]

On 7/21/2024 at 5:22 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Deadpool x Wolverine (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	379	1596	9038	53459	16.91

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		4828	643	53.42
MTC1:		3459	429	38.27
Other chains:		5579	1167	61.73

 

Comps:

2.23x Dune Part 2 (THU): $22.3 Million (17 theaters)

5.03x Marvels: $33.21 Million (17 theaters)

1.07x Barbenheimer: $33.9 Million (17 theaters)

 

Time to get serious here, tracking daily from now on

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Deadpool x Wolverine (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 24 theaters	398	1192	10230	55111	18.56

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		5201	373	50.84
MTC1:		3861	402	37.74
Other chains:		6369	790	62.26

 

Comps:

9.13x Furiosa: $31.94 Million

2.22x Dune Part 2 (THU): $22.16 Million (17 theaters)

5.11x Marvels: $33.71 Million (17 theaters)

1.56x Barbie: $33.25 Million (17 theaters)

 

A couple of notes on comps:

 

1. Yes, I know Furiosa seems silly in there and I'm probably (right so) being judged for throwing it in there. But I wanted to have at least one comp that utilized my whole sample, which is more representative of Minnesota and less just the Twin cities metro area, and that felt like the right one (R-rated, fanbase frontloaded, not great walk-ups)

 

2. Swapped Barbenheimer for just Barbie. Oppenheimer just really overperformed here, especially since I would just be comparing the metro theaters, which it did gangbusters in; I think Barbie is more representative of how this might perform versus including Oppy. 

[abracadabra1998]

33 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pretty clear Trap is looking like an overperformer, at least out of the gate. 

 

I feel pretty good about that one, pre-sales are decent for something that will not be pre-sale heavy at all

[crazymoviekid]

Deadpool & Wolverine:

 

Thursday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 440 Tickets, 15.06%

Theater 2: 487 Tickets, 22.00%

 

The Marvels: $41.62M

Barbie: $25.29M

GotG3: $48.14

AMatW:Q: $32.77M

BP:WK: $25.88M

T:L&T: $23.83M

DS:MoM: $20.59M

 

Right now, the comp is looking at $25M, but the theater capacities are much lower than the comps, giving room for bigger growth over the week. LFG. 

[Rorschach]

Deadpool and Wolverine (Monday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday: 1,359/3,546 (38.3% sold)

3 IMAX showings: 368/1,164

3 XD showings: 355/714

2 3D showings: 79/213

15 2D showings: 557/1,455

 

Friday: 1,103/5,992 (18.4% sold)

5 IMAX showings: 186/1,940

5 XD showings: 268/1,190

6 3D showings: 85/596

22 2D showings: 564/2,266

Thurs + Fri: 2,462/9,538 (25.8% sold)

 

 

No comps for this one until Wednesday night; just posting the totals as they are right now.