The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[katnisscinnaplex]

21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Alien Romulus	T-17	Jax	5	39	152	152	7,073	2.15%
		Phx	6	28	142	142	5,645	2.52%
		Ral	8	36	103	103	5,034	2.05%
	Total		19	103	397	397	17,752	2.24%
It Ends With Us	T-10	Jax	5	17	189	189	1,511	12.51%
		Phx	5	19	91	91	2,196	4.14%
		Ral	7	24	276	276	1,842	14.98%
	Total		17	60	556	556	5,549	10.02%
It Ends With Us (EA)	T-9	Jax	3	3	121	121	331	36.56%
		Phx	3	3	57	57	306	18.63%
		Ral	3	3	79	79	209	37.80%
	Total		9	9	257	257	846	30.38%
Trap	T-3	Jax	5	23	107	107	1,855	5.77%
		Phx	5	17	86	86	1,711	5.03%
		Ral	7	21	70	70	1,761	3.98%
	Total		17	61	263	263	5,327	4.94%

 

Trap T-3 adjusted comps

 - Crawdads (Total) - .543x (1.48m)

 - Death on the Nile - 1.594x (1.72m)

 - Old - 2.63x (4.18m)

 - Haunting in Venice (Total) - 1.32x (1.52m)

 

Old came on strong really late here.  We'll see if this one can follow suit.

 

It Ends With Us (Total) T-10 adjusted comps

 - Crawdads (Total) - 4.065x (9.57m)

 - John Wick 4 - .828x (6.04m)

 - Magic Mike 3 - 9.679x (8.13m)

 - Sound of Freedom (OD) - .698x (3.63m)

 - Downton Abbey (Total) - 1.904x (3.51m)

 - Elvis (Total) - 2.494x (7.51m)

 

Alien Romulus T-17 adjusted comps

 - Scream VI - .753x (4.55m)

 - Nope - 1.423x (9.32m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
It Ends With Us	T-9	Jax	5	20	13	202	1,777	11.37%
		Phx	5	19	-2	89	2,196	4.05%
		Ral	7	24	27	303	1,842	16.45%
	Total		17	63	38	594	5,815	10.21%
It Ends With Us (EA)	T-8	Jax	3	4	10	131	417	31.41%
		Phx	3	3	3	60	306	19.61%
		Ral	3	3	16	95	209	45.45%
	Total		9	10	29	286	932	30.69%
Trap	T-2	Jax	5	29	29	136	2,362	5.76%
		Phx	7	25	24	110	2,172	5.06%
		Ral	8	25	19	89	2,059	4.32%
	Total		20	79	72	335	6,593	5.08%

 

Trap T-2 adjusted comps

 - Crawdads (Total) - .539x (1.47m)

 - Death on the Nile - 1.642x (1.78m)

 - Old - 2.54x (4.04m)

 - Haunting in Venice (Total) - missed

 - Knock at the Cabin - 1.65x (2.39m)

 - Monkey Man - 1.59x (2.22m)

 - Last Night in Soho (Total) - 2.29x (1.82m)

 

Size adjusted comp - 1.8m

 

It Ends With Us (Total) T-9 adjusted comps

 - Crawdads (Total) - 4.055x (9.55m)

 - John Wick 4 - .841x (6.14m)

 - Magic Mike 3 - 10.476x (8.8m)

 - Sound of Freedom (OD) - .685x (3.56m)

 - Downton Abbey (Total) - 1.888x (3.48m)

 - Elvis (Total) - 2.438x (7.34m)

[JonathanMB]

Yeah, it's been a while since we had an event movie with women to this extent, and they almost always have crazy presale numbers to the point of slightly over-inflating expectations - to do a couple big throwbacks, I remember the first Sex and the City movie having such absurdly good pre-sales (I believe they have some legit sellouts?) that it looked like it would go much higher than the $57M it ended up making (Still an amazing number of course). I remember something similar also happening with The Fault in Our Stars. And of course the Twilight movies were always presale juggernauts. So I'm guessing we'll see some massive frontloading here as well, but the numbers are so high already that it's well enough positioned for a big breakout.

[filmlover]

 

[keysersoze123]

Trap MTC1

Previews - 20856/173504 297487.15 1674 shows

Friday - 13641/245501 196785.62 2280 shows

Saturday - 8825/251254 118238.29 2320 shows

 

MTC2 Previews - 3425/87596 44477.60 962 shows

 

As I said earlier yesterday. I am not sensing a breakout. Compared to earlier in the day it added around 1800 tickets for previews. T-2 pace was probably in 2500. Let us see how it accelerates with all the reactions seen today.  Previews probably around 2.5/3m but more frontloaded due to MNS factor. its slightly above 60% of Longlegs at this point. 

 

Ignore my post. I was looking at friday thinking its previews and saturday instead of friday. Let me see the previews pace end of day to judge where its going to end. Definitely better than what I saw yesterday. its close to longlegs level. 

 

Edited July 30 by keysersoze123

[filmlover]

Considering that Trap apparently isn't even bothering with screenings for critics (always a great sign of confidence there!), I imagine its level of frontloading will be more interesting to watch than the average thriller.

[Grand Cine]

Have you numbers for It End with Us @keysersoze123 or it's too early? Just to see if like other trackers , it's really good.

[jeffthehat]

On 7/29/2024 at 10:25 AM, jeffthehat said:

Indiana

Trap T-3

Sales	Seats	Shows
349	7713	74

TC = 25, pulled 10AM EST

Comps

2.84x Imaginary T-3 = $2.1m

0.27x Twisters T-3 = $2.3m

0.51x AQP D1 T-3 = $3.5m

 

AVG = $2.59m

Indiana

Trap T-2

Sales	Seats	Shows
448	8280	80

TC = 25, pulled 11AM EST

Comps

3.29x Imaginary T-2 = $2.4m

0.81x Longlegs T-2 = $2.4m

0.30x Twisters T-2 = $2.5m

0.58x AQP D1 T-2 = $4.0m

 

AVG = $2.81m

[keysersoze123]

FYI Trap is better than what i thought yesterday. I was looking at friday instead of previews and sat instead of friday 😠

[Relevation]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Trap MTC1

Previews - 20856/173504 297487.15 1674 shows

Friday - 13641/245501 196785.62 2280 shows

Saturday - 8825/251254 118238.29 2320 shows

 

MTC2 Previews - 3425/87596 44477.60 962 shows

 

As I said earlier yesterday. I am not sensing a breakout. Compared to earlier in the day it added around 1800 tickets for previews. T-2 pace was probably in 2500. Let us see how it accelerates with all the reactions seen today.  Previews probably around 2.5/3m but more frontloaded due to MNS factor. its slightly above 60% of Longlegs at this point. 

 

Ignore my post. I was looking at friday thinking its previews and saturday instead of friday. Let me see the previews pace end of day to judge where its going to end. Definitely better than what I saw yesterday. its close to longlegs level. 

 

Comping to A Quiet Place T-2, since I think Trap could be equally as walkup heavy given it’s a fairly accessible PG-13 original thriller

A Quiet Place: Day One MTC1

Previews(T-2) - 53019/585612 1035076.71 3038 shows +8798

Friday - 45546/1171815 851430.28 6348 shows +10537

 

Trap is at 0.39x of AQP, which would yield a comp of $2.67M previews

That sounds decent enough, and if it could stretch to $3M, maybe a $25M OW is possible on the high end 

 

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, Grand Cine said:

Have you numbers for It End with Us @keysersoze123 or it's too early? Just to see if like other trackers , it's really good.

It ends with us MTC1

Early Shows(8/7) - 12562/37925 183231.40 310 shows

Previews - 16165/178539 223733.74 1503 shows
Friday - 21248/228014 288013.82 1869 shows

 

MTC2

Early Shows - 3810/12876 50484.53 136 shows

Previews - 13004/111458 166929.48 1043 shows

 

I have to get another run to judge the pace but the fact that friday is already comfortably ahead of previews shows great potential. Plus that MTC2 number this far out shows its breaking out beyond the coastal cities. Need to see which movie would make a good comp for this one. 

[TheFlatLannister]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

FYI Trap is better than what i thought yesterday. I was looking at friday instead of previews and sat instead of friday 😠

Been there…Done that

[Eric the Marxist]

Quorum Updates

Alien: Romulus T-18: 39.45% Awareness, 47.54% Interest

Blink Twice T-25: 21.9% Awareness, 41.47% Interest

Piece by Piece T-74: 14.86% Awareness, 30.51% Interest

Gladiator 2 T-116: 39.17% Awareness, 47.33% Interest

Nosferatu T-149: 17.93% Awareness, 37.96% Interest

 

Harold and the Purple Crayon T-4: 28.29% Awareness, 35.79% Interest

Final Awareness: 19% chance of 10M

Animation/Family Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 22% chance of 10M

Animation/Family Interest: 50% chance of 20M

 

Trap T-4: 35.13% Awareness, 53.42% Interest

Final Awareness: 40% chance of 10M, 6% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 44% chance of 10M, 6% chance of 20M

Final Interest: 94% chance of 10M, 81% chance of 20M

Horror Interest: 100% chance of 10M, 71% chance of 20M

 

Borderlands T-11: 40.54% Awareness, 46.44% Interest

Final Awareness: 78% chance of 10M, 48% chance of 20M, 26% chance of 30M

Medium Awareness: 77% chance of 10M, 54% chance of 20M, 38% chance of 30M

Final Interest: 48% chance of 10M, 18% chance of 20M, 9% chance of 30M

Medium Interest: 55% chance of 10M, 22% chance of 20M, 17% chance of 30M

 

Cuckoo T-11: 19.74% Awareness, 43.66% Interest

Final Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Horror Interest: 0% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 48% chance of 10M

Horror Interest: 45% chance of 10M

 

It Ends with Us T-11: 27.2% Awareness, 42.22% Interest

Final Awareness: 19% chance of 10M, 2% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 48% chance of 10M, 18% chance of 20M

Low Interest: 34% chance of 10M, 2% chance of 20M

[el sid]

Trap, counted today for Thursday, had 647 sold tickets. 

Up very nice 43% since yesterday. Yesterday I complained about the poor jump since Friday but today everything is fine again (maybe D&W really was the reason for the muted sales over the weekend). 

And lots of shows were added: yesterday it had 20 shows (in 6 of my 7 theaters), today Trap has 37 (in all 7 theaters now).

 

The average preview number for Trap increased since yesterday: 3.4M+.

M3gan = 5.2M.

The First Omen = 4.45M.

Abigail = 3.15M. 

The Strangers (counted 1 day later, namely on Wednesday for Thursday which means Trap has 1 day left to increase the margin) = 2.15M + 1 day left.

And Knock at the Cabin (also counted on Wednesday for Thursday) = 2.05M + 1 day left. 

[el sid]

By the way, tomorrow I will have a closer look at it but It Ends with Us has a good Thursday: Friday ratio in my theaters too. I even think its Friday presales are better (in California for sure but I didn't check all theaters). 

[JonathanMB]

IEWU having stronger Friday sales than Thursday is quite wild, when was the last time that occurred this far out? I wonder if a lot of groups are planning to see it as a weekend activity? 

[misterpepp]

Cuckoo went on sale today.

[Boxofficerules]

I can see It Ends With Us having a better opening than Borderlands.

[Grand Cine]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

It ends with us MTC1

Early Shows(8/7) - 12562/37925 183231.40 310 shows

Previews - 16165/178539 223733.74 1503 shows
Friday - 21248/228014 288013.82 1869 shows

 

MTC2

Early Shows - 3810/12876 50484.53 136 shows

Previews - 13004/111458 166929.48 1043 shows

 

I have to get another run to judge the pace but the fact that friday is already comfortably ahead of previews shows great potential. Plus that MTC2 number this far out shows its breaking out beyond the coastal cities. Need to see which movie would make a good comp for this one. 

I think Crawdads and Don't Worry Darling are the best comp , maybe Hunger Games .

[keysersoze123]

23 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

I think Crawdads and Don't Worry Darling are the best comp , maybe Hunger Games .

They were too small and I did not track them this far. This will be bigger than those 2 for sure. 

[Grand Cine]

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

They were too small and I did not track them this far. This will be bigger than those 2 for sure. 

Maybe Mean Girls and Hunger Games , also maybe Wonka .