Weekend Thread | Estimates - Barbie $53M (hit a billion!), Meg2 $30M, Oppy $28.7, TMNT - $27.95M (5-day $43M), HauntedMansion $8.97M

[PlatnumRoyce]

1 hour ago, Elden Lord said:

Disney/Marvel will get roughly half of that $475 million. So Disney gets roughly $240 million. The $200 million budget does not count marketing. Marketing for big brand films can run as high as matching the production budget, but, conservatively let’s say the marketing was $100 million. That puts the overall expenses for the film at about $300 million (not including interest on loans, points paid to actors on BO receipts, etc etc etc). That would put the movie at a pretty decent loss of about $50 - $60 million at it’s theatrical release. 

The core problem with that is that it treats post-theatrical revenue as "found money" instead of a core part of the economics.  If Disney expects $100M from home video (net of production & marketing costs) and $100M from TV + SVOD rights, the marketing + budget you can fairly attribute against theatrical would be more like $120M from budget and 60M from marketing because the theatrical marketing clearly plays a bigger role generating interest in VOD sales than the significantly smaller marketing spend done at that time.

 

[Kon]

1 hour ago, Valonqar said:

 

For epic romance movie to become popular, first thing is that such movie needs to be made. And they aren't making many of them. But when they do they hit big - Titanic, Avatar, Twilight Saga were insane hits and they had romance at the center of the plot. 

 

Also Reylo.

 

I'm not sure whether Avatar should be included.

 

In Titanic and Twilight Saga, the romance is likely the biggest selling point for the audience. Instead, Avatar has romance, but the real selling point was on the visual aspects.

[harry713]

57 minutes ago, baumer said:

Humidity makes me turn into the incredible hulk. The rage is something I can't describe. I would rather be in -20° weather and a blizzard then 33° + 10° of humidity and we get that a lot here in Toronto in the summer. Drives me batshit crazy.

I can relate. It was only 65 degrees here in southern california last night, but the humidity was up to 85% so it may as well have been 95. 

[Valonqar]

8 minutes ago, Kon said:

 

I'm not sure whether Avatar should be included.

 

In Titanic and Twilight Saga, the romance is likely the biggest selling point for the audience. Instead, Avatar has romance, but the real selling point was on the visual aspects.

 

That Cameron recreated real Titanic was a selling point too. In any case, a movie is a romance if romance is central to the plot and that's the case with Avatar so yes it's a romance. You could call it sci fi romance but it's definitely a romance. Terminator is a romance too cause romance is central.

[jedijake]

Wow you guys are crybabies about the heat! 65 degrees and humid! Oh no! The travesty. Try 105 degrees F and 118 heat index.

 

Btw, the mere concept of Barbie surpassing Avengers (quite possible) domestically is genuinely frightning!

[harry713]

3 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Wow you guys are crybabies about the heat! 65 degrees and humid! Oh no! The travesty. Try 105 degrees F and 118 heat index.

 

 Did you want an award? 

[MysteryMovieMogul]

Can someone explain to me how TMNT has legs? It may be getting good reviews, but it's still a superhero film, and I haven't heard much hype about it outside of artists I follow on Instagram, and even amongst them I'm hearing very little and seeing way less fan-art as compared to Spiderverse.

[Joel M]

30 minutes ago, Kon said:

 

I'm not sure whether Avatar should be included.

 

In Titanic and Twilight Saga, the romance is likely the biggest selling point for the audience. Instead, Avatar has romance, but the real selling point was on the visual aspects.

 

Titanic was also a disaster movie with never before seen visual effects. Everyone, their parents and their grandparents went to see it. It's not even in the same ballpark with Twilight or huge romcoms like Pretty Woman or even Barbie.

[CJohn]

@MCKillswitch123 MEG opened a bit below the first one (~42.000 tickets sold vs ~57.000 tickets sold) but it was insanely screwed by screen space (many theaters only had it in rooms with under 100 seats). The first one had no competition. Still, this is a bigger OW than D&D, Scream, Flash and Transformers and just below Spider-Verse and Quantumania.

 

Pôr do Sol sold ~32.000 tickets (it was almost first on Thursday) but it seems to be heavily frontloaded. Still, it is a great result.

 

Barbie and Oppenheimer destroying in the top 2. 

[abracadabra1998]

27 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Wow you guys are crybabies about the heat! 65 degrees and humid! Oh no! The travesty. Try 105 degrees F and 118 heat index.

 

Btw, the mere concept of Barbie surpassing Avengers (quite possible) domestically is genuinely frightning!

 

Fair enough, but then y'all don't get to be crybabies when a little snow falls or when it's less than 30 degrees in the winter

[abracadabra1998]

2 minutes ago, CJohn said:

@MCKillswitch123 MEG opened a bit below the first one (~42.000 tickets sold vs ~57.000 tickets sold) but it was insanely screwed by screen space (many theaters only had it in rooms with under 100 seats). The first one had no competition. Still, this is a bigger OW than D&D, Scream, Flash and Transformers and just below Spider-Verse and Quantumania.

 

Pôr do Sol sold ~32.000 tickets (it was almost first on Thursday) but it seems to be heavily frontloaded. Still, it is a great result.

 

Barbie and Oppenheimer destroying in the top 2. 

 

Where do you get ticket info for our beloved pátria?

[MysteryMovieMogul]

2 minutes ago, CJohn said:

@MCKillswitch123 MEG opened a bit below the first one (~42.000 tickets sold vs ~57.000 tickets sold) but it was insanely screwed by screen space (many theaters only had it in rooms with under 100 seats). The first one had no competition. Still, this is a bigger OW than D&D, Scream, Flash and Transformers and just below Spider-Verse and Quantumania.

 

Pôr do Sol sold ~32.000 tickets (it was almost first on Thursday) but it seems to be heavily frontloaded. Still, it is a great result.

 

Barbie and Oppenheimer destroying in the top 2. 

I wish we had "tickets sold" stats for every region. Can SAG and the WGA bargain for that in their new contracts... somehow?

[MysteryMovieMogul]

29 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Wow you guys are crybabies about the heat! 65 degrees and humid! Oh no! The travesty. Try 105 degrees F and 118 heat index.

 

Btw, the mere concept of Barbie surpassing Avengers (quite possible) domestically is genuinely frightning!

Frightening... how?

 

I think it's pretty awesome. A legitimate comedy making over $1 Billion is amazing!

[AniNate]

16 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

Can someone explain to me how TMNT has legs? It may be getting good reviews, but it's still a superhero film, and I haven't heard much hype about it outside of artists I follow on Instagram, and even amongst them I'm hearing very little and seeing way less fan-art as compared to Spiderverse.

 

Well it has zero direct competition for the next two months and an A cinemascore. I don't necessarily think a lack of fan-art, especially when the movie just came out, is a harbinger of doom. No one expected it to challenge Spiderverse box office wise in any case but I feel like it has the circumstances to get to Elemental's domestic take.  

 

 

Edited August 7, 2023 by AniNate

[jedijake]

35 minutes ago, harry713 said:

 Did you want an award? 

No, it's just baffling to hear someone complain about 65 degrees. And 85% humidity in 65 degree air does not make it feel like 95%. As a matter of fact, 85% humidity in 65 degree air doesn't actually make it feel much different than 65 degrees at all.

[Elden Lord]

41 minutes ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

The core problem with that is that it treats post-theatrical revenue as "found money" instead of a core part of the economics.  If Disney expects $100M from home video (net of production & marketing costs) and $100M from TV + SVOD rights, the marketing + budget you can fairly attribute against theatrical would be more like $120M from budget and 60M from marketing because the theatrical marketing clearly plays a bigger role generating interest in VOD sales than the significantly smaller marketing spend done at that time.

 

 

Well, I did say that it was at a $50 to $60 million loss at it's theatrical release. Meaning I understood that the movie does have life and revenue after the theatrical release. I think the core problem with the home release, is that the movie does not generate anywhere near the revenue that a lot of people think it does. The studio does not get 100% of the revenue from the VOD, blu ray, dvd, etc etc etc release (as you pointed out). They get a percentage of each VOD sale. BLuRay and DVD sales are nowhere near what they were at one point, with less and less ppl wanting the tangible disks.

 

What further takes away any revenue from the home release is the paid streaming services, where people will wait til it comes out on whatever streaming service they already pay a monthly sub for. Ppl aren't going to go buy a BluRay or pay $10 for VOD when they are already paying $15/$20 a month for whatever streaming service the movie is scheduled to hit. So just as VOD killed BluRay/dvd sales, the movie being released on whatever monthly sub'ed streaming service kills that movies VOD. 

 

Does Elemental have enough of a following to generate enough revenue to cover that $50 million at home release when everyone knows it is hitting D+ in a few weeks? Prob not, especially when you take into account marketing (as you pointed out), distribution costs, % shared with the VOD service etc etc 

[DC Rich]

[reddevil19]

17 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Where do you get ticket info for our beloved pátria?

I found this...

https://www.ica-ip.pt/pt/downloads/box-office/

[MysteryMovieMogul]

1 minute ago, Elden Lord said:

 

Well, I did say that it was at a $50 to $60 million loss at it's theatrical release. Meaning I understood that the movie does have life and revenue after the theatrical release. I think the core problem with the home release, is that the movie does not generate anywhere near the revenue that a lot of people think it does. The studio does not get 100% of the revenue from the VOD, blu ray, dvd, etc etc etc release (as you pointed out). They get a percentage of each VOD sale. BLuRay and DVD sales are nowhere near what they were at one point, with less and less ppl wanting the tangible disks.

 

What further takes away any revenue from the home release is the paid streaming services, where people will wait til it comes out on whatever streaming service they already pay a monthly sub for. Ppl aren't going to go buy a BluRay or pay $10 for VOD when they are already paying $15/$20 a month for whatever streaming service the movie is scheduled to hit. So just as VOD killed BluRay/dvd sales, the movie being released on whatever monthly sub'ed streaming service kills that movies VOD. 

 

Does Elemental have enough of a following to generate enough revenue to cover that $50 million at home release when everyone knows it is hitting D+ in a few weeks? Prob not, especially when you take into account marketing (as you pointed out), distribution costs, % shared with the VOD service etc etc 

I mean, if we start talking about non-theatrical revenue, shouldn't we also start to include merchandising? Once you stop talking about Box Office, the revenue streams open to be more than just VoD or Subscribership. Now you also must look at every other realm in which the film can earn money.

 

And then there's weird Hollywood Accounting shit like Disney paying themselves for the streaming rights to Elemental.

[Mojoguy]

23 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

Frightening... how?

 

I think it's pretty awesome. A legitimate comedy making over $1 Billion is amazing!

I like that a movie clearly aimed at women made a billion dollars. Even stuff like Captain Marvel and TFA were just action movies with a woman as the lead, they were still clearly focused on male audiences.

Edited August 7, 2023 by Mojoguy