Weekend Thread | Estimates - Barbie $53M (hit a billion!), Meg2 $30M, Oppy $28.7, TMNT - $27.95M (5-day $43M), HauntedMansion $8.97M

[Valonqar]

1 hour ago, Kon said:

 

Again. Epic love movies weren't so common in the 90s or 80s either.

 

People are more practical these days, but that could even benefit the idealized romance movies. A lot of people use fictional stories as escapism.

 

 

Honestly, romance movies have a hard time, because there is a lot of competition. Romance stories can easily be created by TV shows or streaming.

 

For epic romance movie to become popular, first thing is that such movie needs to be made. And they aren't making many of them. But when they do they hit big - Titanic, Avatar, Twilight Saga were insane hits and they had romance at the center of the plot. 

 

Also Reylo.

Edited August 7, 2023 by Valonqar

[AN9815]

2 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

I mean, my discussion was more on the stupidity of taking the bait and making Indy 5 (an obviously bad idea). Ant-Man COULD have actually done well if it was good. Indy 5 was doomed from the greenlight.

Yeah Ant Man was pretty bad, and that comes from someone who actually liked/loved the previous ones. With great reviews this could have easily crossed $600m 

[Elden Lord]

2 minutes ago, AN9815 said:

I am not a defender of Ant Man 3 at all but why is it on par with huge bombs like Strange World and Haunted Mansion? It underperformed but it made $475m WW on a $200m budget. 

Disney/Marvel will get roughly half of that $475 million. So Disney gets roughly $240 million. The $200 million budget does not count marketing. Marketing for big brand films can run as high as matching the production budget, but, conservatively let’s say the marketing was $100 million. That puts the overall expenses for the film at about $300 million (not including interest on loans, points paid to actors on BO receipts, etc etc etc). That would put the movie at a pretty decent loss of about $50 - $60 million at it’s theatrical release. 

[vale9001]

Every genre can be successfull. I don't think a genre can totally be over. Someone could have said  musicals were dead and then la la Land made 500M dollars. 

 

The problem is the risk. After Titanic they tried a lot of similar movies were flops like Australia or Pearl Harbour. Big costs, big risk.

 

Since china and new markets became a thing action flicks were the genre they embraced more so they started to almost produce only this genre of blockbusters since an almost total saturation.

 

Now seems that china is not this big anymore for these movies I think Hollywood definitely needs to try more new things. Before pandemic for MI7 probably 350M from china and right now would be a success. Without that well....

Edited August 7, 2023 by vale9001

[Elden Lord]

11 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

Magic Kingdom is def over 100 once humidity index/discomfort are taken into account. Florida will be VERY unappealing in "high summer" after climate change. Disney should start looking at a long term plan to either become a landlord or offload those parks to someone because they are deeeeeaaaaaaaaddddd in summer there in about 20 years if this change keeps up.

So moving the goalposts now? Lol

 

There have been no 100 degree days at Magic Kingdom that I can see, and the humidity is the same humidity that Florida has had for the last decade, when attendance numbers were higher at this same point in those years. WDW just suffered it worst July 4th in 10 years. People all of a sudden didn’t just decide Disney was too hot now. 
 

Again, Disney is not gonna file for bankruptcy tomorrow, but, as I said before, it isn’t in a great position to be absorbing these hits like it used to be. My wife and I are sitting on a loss of $7,000 in stock value… so it is important to us that the ship gets righted over there. 

[Elden Lord]

16 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Yeah, I was going to say I don't think people really understand what humidity does if they've never experienced it before lol.

 

It's the fucking worst.

I live off of one of the great lakes. I understand humidity in the summer…

 

🙄

[baumer]

Humidity makes me turn into the incredible hulk. The rage is something I can't describe. I would rather be in -20° weather and a blizzard then 33° + 10° of humidity and we get that a lot here in Toronto in the summer. Drives me batshit crazy.

[Deep Wang]

3 minutes ago, Elden Lord said:

I live off of one of the great lakes. I understand humidity in the summer…

 

🙄

 

Oh, so instead of it being 70 it feels like it's 72??  

 

Buddy, it's like 94 right now in Houston at 9am so forgive me for not sympathizing with you and your plight.  

[Elden Lord]

Just now, Deep Wang said:

 

Oh, so instead of it being 70 it feels like it's 72??  

 

Buddy, it's like 94 right now in Houston at 9am so forgive me for not sympathizing with you and your plight.  

Buddy… you brought it up, not me. I wasn’t looking for sympathy, just responding to your self righteous comment. Always love the comments where make believe narratives are created for arguments never made…

[Elden Lord]

7 minutes ago, baumer said:

Humidity makes me turn into the incredible hulk. The rage is something I can't describe. I would rather be in -20° weather and a blizzard then 33° + 10° of humidity and we get that a lot here in Toronto in the summer. Drives me batshit crazy.

Buffalo, NY here.. Give me our lake effect over the humidity coming off of Erie any day! 

[AniNate]

I don't mind humidity this year because it cleans up wildfire smoke

[Valonqar]

25 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

Every genre can be successfull. I don't think a genre can totally be over. Someone could have said  musicals were dead and then la la Land made 500M dollars. 

 

The problem is the risk. After Titanic they tried a lot of similar movies were flops like Australia or Pearl Harbour. Big costs, big risk.

 

Since china and new markets became a thing action flicks were the genre they embraced more so they started to almost produce only this genre of blockbusters since an almost total saturation.

 

Now seems that china is not this big anymore for these movies I think Hollywood definitely needs to try more new things. Before pandemic for MI7 probably 350M from china and right now would be a success. Without that well....

 

This. Hollywood likes to jump on the Next Big Thing wagon and very often that doesn't pan out cause immitators simply don't understand why the trend-setter succeeded. Titanic succeeded cause it's freakin Cameron so Michael Bay was never going to replicate that. Even Ridley Scott who started historical epic trend with Gladiator couldn't replicate it with Kingdom of Heaven. Sometimes movies are just one and done and not a sign of new genre domination. There will be a lot of disappointed studios and rolling heads when Barbie immitations fail to make even 1/3 of Barbie boxoffice. 

 

Even within the same genre you don't get the peak boxoffice with every movie.  Some superhero movies pass 2 billion, some 1 million, some fall way short. Some live action remakes cross 1B, some make half or less. Same goes for animation,  musicl bipics (translation: Bohemian Rhapsody boxoffice won't be replicated not even close), etc

Edited August 7, 2023 by Valonqar

[AniNate]

Pearl Harbor was a pretty decent hit to be fair, I think it actually helped get Michael Bay something of a blank check to make something like The Island

[Liiviig 1998]

26 minutes ago, AN9815 said:

In my opinion Elemental run has been great and I think Disney will be happy with it at the end. We will see for sure with Wish, Elio and Inside Out 2 but I think this is the right path for WDAS and Pixar animated movies. After Lightyear and Strange World massive bombs I was afraid people had completely abandoned original animation but looking back those movies were really not that good and did not connect with audiences at all. Elemental opened pretty low but its legs and its OS performance have been great to the point of going from one of the biggest bombs of the year to a break even point. But most importantly, I think it brought some faith back on original animation post COVID. 

After the bombs they have had from the last 2 animated features. Indy5, HM,antman .

 

Elemental having the run it has is definitely a welcome sign for Disney at this point and shows an uptick in interest for their animated features which looked pretty bleak at the start of the year.

[abracadabra1998]

17 minutes ago, baumer said:

Humidity makes me turn into the incredible hulk. The rage is something I can't describe. I would rather be in -20° weather and a blizzard then 33° + 10° of humidity and we get that a lot here in Toronto in the summer. Drives me batshit crazy.

 

In Minnesota we get the worst of winters and then real humid summers. Love living here but the weather makes me work for it lol

[Elden Lord]

2 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Pearl Harbor was a pretty decent hit to be fair, I think it actually helped get Michael Bay something of a blank check to make something like The Island

That movie did Hartnett’s character dirty! 

[AniNate]

Elemental looks like it's done domestically unfortunately, it's lost too many theaters and it does seem like family interest has fully shifted to Turtles. Hopefully it keeps holding well enough overseas to get to 500m.

[emoviefan]

Ah yes. Box theory where on the weekend thread somehow a argument forms about humidity and climate change. Gotta love this place. LOL

[Kon]

22 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Pearl Harbor was a pretty decent hit to be fair, I think it actually helped get Michael Bay something of a blank check to make something like The Island

 

Pearl Harbor was hated by critics, but it seems to have a decent box office.

 

That said, studios likely expected more from the movie.

[The GOAT]

Netflix has killed the need for hot outright romantics movies and romcoms.

Young adult genre has also bombed out due to being all the same

These are the genres that women usually went to see in theaters