Weekend Thread | TAYLOR SWIFT $31M Estimate, KOTFM $23M

[Curiouser and Curiouser]

15 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Because the 3.5 hour grim drama  backed by Apple did not do as well as hoped so the fun looking 2 hour or so romp also backed by Apple will also not do well? You may be right but I don't feel like going down that negative everything is going to bomb or underperform road  because that movie did.

I'm not even convinced it "didn't do as well as hoped." It's 3.5 hours long! This is where I'm stumbling. How much higher was it reasonably supposed to go? Maybe 30 with Leo being more visible? Its length is the biggest stumbling block for it, but if this is the movie Marty wanted, i'm glad he got to make it!

[Curiouser and Curiouser]

If anyone is interested, this is partial analysis from one of the best industry trade's The Ankler (subscription only, basically the new version of Deadline Hollywood )

 

"Killers of the Flower Moon: $23 Million ($44 Million global)
    •    Pretty good number considering only the director could actively promote it (although APPLE did put the 🔥 on the Marketing buys this week).
    ◦    53% said they attended the pic due to Scorsese.
    ◦    48% for the plot.
    ◦    36% said Leo was a factor for them.
    •    In the dead center of tracking.
    •    A- Cinemascore
    •    44% were under 30 years-old 👀

 

They break down the audience more than this, but I found this pretty fascinating. The Scorsese number is nice  And they suggest this could get to 100 million domestic. 

Edited October 23, 2023 by Curiouser and Curiouser

[Cmasterclay]

I'm Mr. Doom and Gloom and even I'm not that pressed about this KOTFM number. It's a little disappointing in the context of Oppenheimer and the first day of presales. If you had told someone in June it would do over 20m, they probably would have creamed their pants. I'm much less worried about KOTFM making 75m instead of 100m than with the utter bomb failures of other adult movies that weren't ever gonna be huge hits but were gonna make at least a few dollars. Upcoming films American Fiction or Poor Things making 5m total instead of 30m total is what gets those kind of movies permanetly booted from theaters, and that's a much more dire situation than whether Marty and Leo will ever get a shot again.

Edited October 23, 2023 by Cmasterclay

[Curiouser and Curiouser]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

I'm Mr. Doom and Gloom and even I'm not that pressed about this KOTFM number. It's a little disappointing in the context of Oppenheimer and the first day of presales. If you had told someone in June it would do over 20m, they probably would have creamed their pants. I'm much less worried about KOTFM making 75m instead of 100m than with the utter bomb failures of other adult movies that weren't ever gonna be huge hits but were gonna make at least a few dollars. Upcoming films American Fiction or Poor Things making 5m instead of 30m is what gets those kind of movies permanetly booted from theaters, and that's a much more dire situation than whether Marty and Leo will ever get a shot again.

This movie did nothing to change Marty or Leo's status...he's going to make whatever he wants next and same with Leo, who is still going to get to choose from every script. I actually do not think it'll be the wager for either of them though, I just don't see someone at marty's age directing a physically grueling type of movie. But maybe i'll be wrong. 

 

[Bob Train]

Silence made $23m WW total. KOTFM made $23m DOM OW, during a strike no less.

 

Of course Leo is a draw.

[Cmasterclay]

40 minutes ago, Curiouser and Curiouser said:

This movie did nothing to change Marty or Leo's status...he's going to make whatever he wants next and same with Leo, who is still going to get to choose from every script. I actually do not think it'll be the wager for either of them though, I just don't see someone at marty's age directing a physically grueling type of movie. But maybe i'll be wrong. 

 

I read the Wager. Meh! It could be an interesting project, but not Marty interesting tbh.

[filmlover]

Flower Moon with any other actor in Leo's age group you can think of besides him likely would've remained an Apple streaming exclusive, honestly. Such is the testament of his enduring star power.

[Zakiyyah6]

Killers of the Flower Moon opening weekend sucks but it absolutely would have sucked more if Leo wasn't starring in it. You think Ryan Gosling would get it to 23M? Hell no he wouldn't have. I love Ryan but at best he only sales when doing films they had a heavy female demographic. The Notebook, La La Land and Barbie. 

[Curiouser and Curiouser]

3 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Killers of the Flower Moon opening weekend sucks but it absolutely would have sucked more if Leo wasn't starring in it. You think Ryan Gosling would get it to 23M? Hell no he wouldn't have. I love Ryan but at best he only sales when doing films they had a heavy female demographic. The Notebook, La La Land and Barbie. 

I guess i'm the only one on here who thinks north of 20 million for a movie with this length and subject matter (and set in the 1920s) is good  Whether or not it made sense for Apple is not for me to say. This is the movie they bought and there's no way their expectations could have been much higher. Maybe some of the tracking from some places got them excited at the last minute, but I feel like it did in line with its tracking...at least according to the Ankler. Right down the middle of tracking. 

 

I would have LOVED to have seen the press tour with the cast. Such a bummer we will never get that. Biggest movie star in the world in this film and he's the invisible man. I get why, but it is so weird. I just don't think they could have delayed this movie anymore, and clearly they were comfortable with it opening during the strike if they felt it would clear 20. 

[redfirebird2008]

9 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

Leo/Scorsese DOM adjusted history (using an even $12 as current ATP, though I believe it’s higher iirc) 
 

Gangs of New York - 160m

The Aviator - 197m

The Departed - 242m

Shutter Island - 195m

Wolf of Wall Street - 171m

 

Pretty dang good numbers considering the content of those movies. 

[NitroJL]

LMAO the amount of excuses people are making for kotfm poor box office performance 🤣.

someone already said it so I'm just quoting, "It’s been destined for theatres since it was acquired. It got a wide release, marketing, Cannes, IMAX and no streaming date in sight. I don’t see why this should be treated as anything other than a conventional release. 

If there’s an air of streamerness to it it’s the film bros who have been pre-empting it not doing big numbers by saying it was made for streaming and Apple not caring how it does. In a funny way the spin resulted in people internalising that they could indeed just wait for streaming cos there’s nothing lost if it doesn’t do well."

[reddevil19]

6 hours ago, emoviefan said:

Because the 3.5 hour grim drama  backed by Apple did not do as well as hoped so the fun looking 2 hour or so romp also backed by Apple will also not do well? You may be right but I don't feel like going down that negative everything is going to bomb or underperform road  because that movie did.

What does KOTFM have to do with it? I'm just saying Argylle doesn't look good or particularly unique for the market (the hero straight out of the novel thing has already been played out recently in Lost City and that had MUCH bigger stars). Given what we've seen in recent years, this just doesn't seem like the kind of project that will get people out to cinemas in February, as opposed to waiting for it on streaming...

 

We'll see, of course, and I do hope it does well, to keep the market going in a week season, but I am not optimistic.

[MCKillswitch123]

46 minutes ago, NitroJL said:

LMAO the amount of excuses people are making for kotfm poor box office performance 🤣.

someone already said it so I'm just quoting, "It’s been destined for theatres since it was acquired. It got a wide release, marketing, Cannes, IMAX and no streaming date in sight. I don’t see why this should be treated as anything other than a conventional release. 

If there’s an air of streamerness to it it’s the film bros who have been pre-empting it not doing big numbers by saying it was made for streaming and Apple not caring how it does. In a funny way the spin resulted in people internalising that they could indeed just wait for streaming cos there’s nothing lost if it doesn’t do well."

 

It's not a conventional release because it's a fucking 3.5 hour R-rated movie with very heavy themes. That sounds hardly conventional. And before you even begin to say the word "Oppenheimer", how is the context of Barbenheimer and multiple 35mm and other prestige format exclusivity applicable to Killers? Oppenheimer was the outlier, not the rule.

Edited October 23, 2023 by MCKillswitch123

[NitroJL]

59 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

It's not a conventional release because it's a fucking 3.5 hour R-rated movie with very heavy themes. That sounds hardly conventional. And before you even begin to say the word "Oppenheimer", how is the context of Barbenheimer and multiple 35mm and other prestige format exclusivity applicable to Killers? Oppenheimer was the outlier, not the rule.

Isn't Leo supposed to be the biggest box office draw in hollywood? No matter the movie's premise, critical reception or run time, he's supposed to make it a guaranteed hit, right? That's what his fanboys claim. Why did this movie cost more than $200M? If leo can't put butts in seats then he shouldn't be taking $30M for each movie he makes. 

 KOTFM is a traditional release with a normal marketing campaign, it should be judged by how it does in theaters. Yes appletv is a rich studio but that doesn't mean KOTFM isn't a flop in theaters. All films released in theaters end up being streaming content, like disney movies in Disney+, WB movies in hbomax etc. 

Edited October 23, 2023 by NitroJL

[Borobudur]

5 minutes ago, NitroJL said:

Isn't Leo supposed to be the biggest box office draw in hollywood? No matter the movie's premise, critical reception or run time, he's supposed to make it a guaranteed hit, right? That's what his fanboys claim. Why did this movie cost more than $200M? If leo can't put butts in seats then he shouldn't be taking $30M for each movie he makes. 

His stardom potential wasn't even fully unleased this round when he is basically absent from last marketing push. Also this movie should finish around where Shazam and Blue Beatle, shouldn't that an evidence of BO draw? 

[Zakiyyah6]

Leo is the biggest draw left but his movies have never made enough to support a 200M budget. I will say that I do think that people are being silly when they try to pretend that a 23M opening for $200M movie is great. I don't think that Apple cares but the movie will be a box office flop, unless it pulls an Elemental. 

[eeetooki]

6 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Leo is the biggest draw left but his movies have never made enough to support a 200M budget. I will say that I do think that people are being silly when they try to pretend that a 23M opening for $200M movie is great. I don't think that Apple cares but the movie will be a box office flop, unless it pulls an Elemental. 

 

Yeah that's exactly what I think. He's a pull but he's not as big of a pull as people make him out to be. I do think people cut Scorsese and Leo the slack they don't give to other movies. The whole filmbros comment would've come out by now if it wasn't Scorsese.

 

I like Leo's movies way more than Tom Cruise's, but after the flop of MI7 people say Leo's the only draw left, then you look at the box office records, Tom Cruise is clearly still doing way better. I guess you could argue that all of the MI movies are part of a franchise and not the original, "serious" contents that Leo choose. But still. I feel like there are a lot of double standards from people.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Exorcist has had better legs than I expected given it’s response.

[Taylor89]

3 hours ago, NitroJL said:

Isn't Leo supposed to be the biggest box office draw in hollywood? No matter the movie's premise, critical reception or run time, he's supposed to make it a guaranteed hit, right? That's what his fanboys claim. Why did this movie cost more than $200M? If leo can't put butts in seats then he shouldn't be taking $30M for each movie he makes. 

 KOTFM is a traditional release with a normal marketing campaign, it should be judged by how it does in theaters. Yes appletv is a rich studio but that doesn't mean KOTFM isn't a flop in theaters. All films released in theaters end up being streaming content, like disney movies in Disney+, WB movies in hbomax etc. 

 

 

He couldn't promote the movie and did yall forget what happened with babylon last year? It had Brad Pitt and it bombed. KOTFM opening number is far from a flop.

[M37]

Finally looking at numbers, and Saturday was pretty weak across the board, much smaller increases than previous weekends ... wonder what was the cause and effect? Halloween activities? College Football? Weather?