Thanksgiving 5-days Weekend thread | BOSS: 42.2m, Napoleon: 32.75m, Wish: 31.6m, Trolls: 25.6m, Thanksgiving: 10.9m

[interiorgatordecorator]

the scott pilgirm "anime" was pretty good, rough at first and there are some aspects of it that never really work, but it really finds its footing starting on ep 4 and ends up a very fun time 

I find the movie to be just ok, this is a big improvement on it 

Edited November 23, 2023 by interiorgatordecorator

[YachtyLogs]

[MovieMan89]

6 minutes ago, PNF2187 said:

That's like, really bad right? I don't expect this to hold nearly as well as Encanto's pure Wed-Thu drop, so say Thursday drops to like $4.5M (-25% from pure Wed - Strange World was -26% from pure Wed), then we're potentially looking at sub-$40M for the 5-day... which with this kind of reception, would probably throw $100M DOM out the window.

Yes, I’ve been saying 100 is out as soon as it became clear how bad reviews were. I’m just curious if this ends up a bigger bomb than Strange World at this point? Sure that only made $75m, but they also left it to die with no marketing budget to speak of. Versus Wish which has gotten maybe the biggest WDAS marketing push ever? 

[Spideeey24]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Yes, I’ve been saying 100 is out as soon as it became clear how bad reviews were. I’m just curious if this ends up a bigger bomb than Strange World at this point? Sure that only made $75m, but they also left it to die with no marketing budget to speak of. Versus Wish which has gotten maybe the biggest WDAS marketing push ever? 

Does Wish has a bit of a bigger budget than Strange World?

[MovieMan89]

Just now, Spideeey24 said:

Does Wish has a bit of a bigger budget than Strange World?

130-185m is what I’m seeing for SW. Wish I believe we know is $200m. If Strange Wolrd was on the 130m + non-existent marketing it got, Wish is definitely gonna be the bigger bomb 

[lab276]

21 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

How on earth is this year an improvement? Trolls and THG will squeak by to ok status with their low budgets but everything else is losing money 

 

Gotta look at the aggregate total. Individual movies can succeed or fail depending on their budgets sure, but theatres only care about butts in seats. And there’s more butts this year than last year. 

[titanic2187]

B- cinemascore for napoleon and saltuburn.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 23, 2023 by titanic2187

[MovieMan89]

6 minutes ago, lab276 said:

 

Gotta look at the aggregate total. Individual movies can succeed or fail depending on their budgets sure, but theatres only care about butts in seats. And there’s more butts this year than last year. 

I mean it’s just thanks to the fact that there’s like 4x the amount of notable wide release options vs last year. It would be pretty absurd if this Nov couldn’t win. But I’d still rather have a Black Panther that shows people actually still care about going to the movies over all these 100m life support duds 

Edited November 23, 2023 by MovieMan89

[Mulder]

1 hour ago, Cmasterclay said:

Yeah, I mean, it all sucks. To be clear. It's a better weekend than the last two years, and overall a bit healthier box office than the last two years, but it still stinks. Is it a matter of audiences abandoning theaters, COVID hangover, inflation, or bad product? Maybe a little bit of every column. But yeah, it sucks. This year's Thanksgiving is an improvement just like the year 2023 overall, but it's all like going from 3-14 to 5-12. The question is if we are stuck at 5-12 forever or if the improvement is a step towards building back to .500.

Gave it a like already but want to say this post rules. That last sentence especially is what's important imo.

[Liiviig 1998]

8 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

I can't tell of Disney or WB is having a worse 100 year anniversary. At least the latter got the biggest film in their history this year I guess. But absolutely terrible years for both. This did get me to look at other companies 100 year anniversaries at the boxoffice too. Paramount had a bad one. 20th Century had an ok one (although it was also the year they released Fan4stic). But neither company had a domestic grosser over $250 mil. Really wondering how Columbia's anniversary goes next year. Their 2024 slate doesn't look good though

Sure 2023 may have higher box-office than 2022 . But 2023 IMO has just been shit year with some outstanding overperformers.

Barbenhiemer and Mario were the major standouts.

 

The level of high profile bombs this year has been astounding. This is where the status quo has started shifting especially for established franchises.

 

Late 2021-2022 was a post civid honeymoon phase . Jurassic world Dominion would have been a sub 300m Dom and Sub 800m WW in 2023.

 

 

 

[Mulder]

6 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

B- cinemascore for napoleon and saltuburn.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The moment I heard that Napoleon was basically comedic instead of Gladiator or The Last Duel tonally, I knew it was unfortunately doomed WOM wise.

[Cmasterclay]

It's hard being negative about box office like I want to be when other people are negative about box office because of fucking budgets. God, I couldn't care less. I literally don't care if Napoleon and Wish and Hunger Games cost a billion dollars - I care about how they performed next to reasonable expectations and cultural baselines for films of this type, quality, and marketing. 

[kayumanggi]

Saw WISH yesterday. I think critics were a little bit too harsh on it. I also think families will like it a lot. Let's see what the legs are like.

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

It's hard being negative about box office like I want to be when other people are negative about box office because of fucking budgets. God, I couldn't care less. I literally don't care if Napoleon and Wish and Hunger Games cost a billion dollars - I care about how they performed next to reasonable expectations and cultural baselines for films of this type, quality, and marketing. 

The performances aren’t good on those merits either. Well, I guess maybe verdict still out on Napoleon, but B- CS is nasty 

[Cmasterclay]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

The performances aren’t good on those merits either. Well, I guess maybe verdict still out on Napoleon, but B- CS is nasty 

Sure, totally fine. Verdict still out on Napoleon, better than I expected for THG (I predicted 85m), and awful for Wish. But we have no idea how much these movies really cost, what cost tax writeoffs, what studios consider "profitable", and how any of that will even impact their operations moving forward. So I just prefer to use every single metric except budget. Even for the obvious bombs like Marvels.

[MovieMan89]

I actually think Wish would be ok for legs if Trolls didn’t exist. But I absolutely think families are going to mostly opt for Trolls now given the reception between the two. 

[lorddemaxus]

10 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

Sure 2023 may have higher box-office than 2022 . But 2023 IMO has just been shit year with some outstanding overperformers.

Barbenhiemer and Mario were the major standouts.

 

The level of high profile bombs this year has been astounding. This is where the status quo has started shifting especially for established franchises.

 

Late 2021-2022 was a post civid honeymoon phase . Jurassic world Dominion would have been a sub 300m Dom and Sub 800m WW in 2023.

 

 

 

Maybe you quoted the wrong post or something but I'm only comparing the respective 100 year anniversaries here. Paramount had theirs in 2012 and 20th Century in 2015

[PNF2187]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I mean it’s just thanks to the fact that there’s like 4x the amount of notable wide release options vs last year. It would be pretty absurd if this Nov couldn’t win. But I’d still rather have a Black Panther that shows people actually still care about going to the movies over all these 100m life support duds 

I think the biggest losses from pre-pandemic Thanksgivings are felt in the Disney releases and THG. Trolls is doing better than most DWA releases on Thanksgiving because it opened the weekend prior instead of the first weekend of November, and as badly as Napoleon is doing relative to its budget, it's still a fair bit better than most live-action films that do open on Thanksgiving. From there, THG's numbers are solid enough on its own but nominally its well behind the Twilight and THG films of the 2010s, and it still paces behind the first Fantastic Beasts and Justice League.

 

But both big Disney movies bombing are really putting a sting on the Thanksgiving numbers. The Marvels is practically abandoned compared to the other November MCU releases, and Wish is struggling to hit $40M, which is a far cry compared to when Disney's animated movies were doing $70M+ at their lowest during the late 2010s.

[titanic2187]

5 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

It's hard being negative about box office like I want to be when other people are negative about box office because of fucking budgets. God, I couldn't care less. I literally don't care if Napoleon and Wish and Hunger Games cost a billion dollars - I care about how they performed next to reasonable expectations and cultural baselines for films of this type, quality, and marketing. 

Yeah, I mean the movie is certainly making money this season is small budget thanksgiving. But how can theatrical market survived with a 30-40m profitable movie? I would rather a justice league style of meltdown but at least raining a 230m cash on cinema.  

[Cmasterclay]

5 minutes ago, PNF2187 said:

I think the biggest losses from pre-pandemic Thanksgivings are felt in the Disney releases and THG. Trolls is doing better than most DWA releases on Thanksgiving because it opened the weekend prior instead of the first weekend of November, and as badly as Napoleon is doing relative to its budget, it's still a fair bit better than most live-action films that do open on Thanksgiving. From there, THG's numbers are solid enough on its own but nominally its well behind the Twilight and THG films of the 2010s, and it still paces behind the first Fantastic Beasts and Justice League.

 

But both big Disney movies bombing are really putting a sting on the Thanksgiving numbers. The Marvels is practically abandoned compared to the other November MCU releases, and Wish is struggling to hit $40M, which is a far cry compared to when Disney's animated movies were doing $70M+ at their lowest during the late 2010s.

Exactly. This weekend would look quite nice if Wish was doing 180 and Marvels was doing 220 this month. The Disney flops fucked November.