Christmas Weekend Thread | Xmas Day #s - Purple 18.1, Aqua 10.6, Wonka 10.3, Boys 5.7, Migration 5.4, Ferrari 2.9 | #BlackGirlMagic dominates the charts

[belblazer]

1 hour ago, grim22 said:

Not sure if this is updated but according to The Numbers, The Marvels just crossed 200M barely, the OS rejection is the craziest part for me.

 

OS did the same multi as DOM (1.8x). Abysmal.

[AniNate]

4 hours ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:

I think we need to redifine what a success is, especially in the long run. All these 100-150 M budgeted movies that earn 300-400 M at Worldwide box office do make a profit (however small it might be) that could be enough for the producers, but they don't help the theatres owners/chains, who would prefer more "flops"  like Mission Impossible, aiming high enough to bring a final tally of 500/600 M + WW.

Keeping the budgets in check should be a priority going forward, but giving a pat on the back each and everytime a movie does the safe play by lowering its production costs (that makes reaching the breakeven point at 2.5x  of its budget way easier) creates a risk- adverse environment where there is no big gamble and no big gain for the theatres.

Tickets sold are at an all time- low,  and for all the bad press they received, movies like Mission Impossible and Fast X are the ones that are still moving the needle for theatre business to stay alive, it's not Hunger Games or Wonka with their relatively small earnings, which only look good when applying the budget ratio. 

This december, just like november before it, is a disaster for the theatre business as a whole, no matter how we try to spin it. We need the big blogbusters to show up and perform well,  and something like The Hunger games, taking a huge franchise with a great box office potential and downsizing it to a mid-budget production with no stars and no stakes might look like a great choice on paper and it turned out well for the producer, but is a straight up disaster for the theatres.

What's next? Rebooting Pirates of the Carribean with no stars, cheap effects and  restrained 100 M budget in hopes of earning 300M WW?

 

 

This is the kind of thinking that has helped lead to this problem. Theaters need a variety of options, not just a few big hitters. Certainly doesn't do anyone any good if the studios spend boatloads of money on a movie and they still don't do any better. 

 

2023 is well ahead of 2022 in overall ticket revenue, so I'm not as concerned about the exhibition industry's health as the production industry's. I do appreciate big swings, but I'd much rather it come from a place of true creative ambition, not just throwing money at a project because they think they can get away with it. It's frankly anti-art to take the position that only big budget productions really matter.

 

 

Edited December 25, 2023 by AniNate

[Mulder]

Wonka's doing good but I gotta agree with Clay that 200 is fine but not some mindblowing number. Most us were thinking 150-200 and it'll fall on that. Good result, not insane. As for Aquaman honestly if it hits 90, 100, 110, or 120 it's abysmal still. This thing had several reshoots and a ton of CGI, it cost a lot of money.

[HummingLemon496]

Wonka should at least pass Into the Spider-Verse's $190M right?

Edited December 25, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Unless what @charlie Jatinder?

Unless it crash and burn like Matrix Resurrection.

[Mojoguy]

16 minutes ago, Mulder said:

 As for Aquaman honestly if it hits 90, 100, 110, or 120 it's abysmal still. This thing had several reshoots and a ton of CGI, it cost a lot of money.

Are you telling me this cost $200m to make?

[Eric the Minion]

Thought it would have been fun, for old times sake, to look at how every movie is selling at my local 22-screen Regal on Christmas Day. I'm not looking to actually extrapolate anything or determine what the numbers will actually be, just a fun thing to chew on while we all wait around, twiddling our thumbs.

 

The Color Purple - 535 tickets (10 shows)

Aquaman 2 - 129 tickets (18 shows)

Wonka - 125 tickets (7 shows)

The Boys in the Boat - 117 tickets (4 shows)

Migration - 62 tickets (10 shows)

Ferrari - 50 tickets (4 shows)

Hunger Games: BOSS - 30 tickets (4 shows)

Anyone But You - 24 tickets (5 shows)

Trolls 3 - 21 tickets (2 shows)

Napoleon - 17 tickets (1 show)

Wish - 14 tickets (3 shows)

The Iron Claw - 13 tickets (4 shows)

Dunki - 11 tickets (3 shows)

Poor Things - 9 tickets (4 shows)

The Boy and the Heron - 5 tickets (2 shows)

Godzilla Minus One - 2 tickets (2 shows)

Salaar: Part 1 - 3 tickets (1 show)

[Eric the Minion]

1 hour ago, Cmasterclay said:

I am fine saying it is doing well. Every day it feels like the vibe in the threads is that its the next Greatest Showman when the weekdays and weekend numbers have been normal amounts of good. I am waiting for these legs to carry it past what M37 and others had always projected to kick in, is all. 

 

For what it's worth, even though PIB2 will ultimately gross less than Wonka, I found that alot more exciting of a run. Every day was a banger in terms of how good the legs were. A movie can gross more money and still feel like a much less special run. Happens all the time.

Honestly feel like most of the "Greatest Showman legs vibes" feel like they're coming from one person. Might be missing some other posts, but everybody else has been pushing for around the same numbers that every other non-Disney musical has gotten, if not slightly more than that (I think the biggest in that camp is still Grease at 180M?) and people seem happy and excited over that.

[Mulder]

3 minutes ago, Eric Wonka said:

Thought it would have been fun, for old times sake, to look at how every movie is selling at my local 22-screen Regal on Christmas Day. I'm not looking to actually extrapolate anything or determine what the numbers will actually be, just a fun thing to chew on while we all wait around, twiddling our thumbs.

 

The Color Purple - 535 tickets (10 shows)

Aquaman 2 - 129 tickets (18 shows)

Wonka - 125 tickets (7 shows)

The Boys in the Boat - 117 tickets (4 shows)

Migration - 62 tickets (10 shows)

Ferrari - 50 tickets (4 shows)

Hunger Games: BOSS - 30 tickets (4 shows)

Anyone But You - 24 tickets (5 shows)

Trolls 3 - 21 tickets (2 shows)

Napoleon - 17 tickets (1 show)

Wish - 14 tickets (3 shows)

The Iron Claw - 13 tickets (4 shows)

Dunki - 11 tickets (3 shows)

Poor Things - 9 tickets (4 shows)

The Boy and the Heron - 5 tickets (2 shows)

Godzilla Minus One - 2 tickets (2 shows)

Salaar: Part 1 - 3 tickets (1 show)

Damn those Color Purple numbers are fucking insane goddamn.

[Eric the Minion]

1 minute ago, Mulder said:

Damn those Color Purple numbers are fucking insane goddamn.

[Bob Train]

7 minutes ago, Eric Wonka said:

I think the biggest in that camp is still Grease at 180M?

Wouldn't it be Sing at $270m? There's also A Star is Born at $215m I guess.

[HummingLemon496]

34 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Unless it crash and burn like Matrix Resurrection.

Or. .  .@BadOlCatSylvester

[Cmasterclay]

4 minutes ago, Eric Wonka said:

Honestly feel like most of the "Greatest Showman legs vibes" feel like they're coming from one person. Might be missing some other posts, but everybody else has been pushing for around the same numbers that every other non-Disney musical has gotten, if not slightly more than that (I think the biggest in that camp is still Grease at 180M?) and people seem happy and excited over that.

I think it is fine to be excited and happy. I'm just searching for different things after all these years on the boards. With due respect to our trackers and numbers people, who are brilliant and add so much to the boards, it has eliminated the element of special surprise us old heads used to get. 99.99 percent of runs now we have exact tracking data for OD/preview and the mathematical savvy to extrapolate those numbers to their conclusion over the lifetime of a run. I've been posting here since 2008. Back in the day, if Color Purple opened to 17m OD, it would have been a stunning, mindblowing surprise that swept everyone off their feet. Now, 17m is somewhere between...expected and disappointing? We will never have a preview or opening day number truly surprise us again. We ain't waking up to find that something like the Hangover or Hunger Games did triple our predictions on a Friday like it used to be. We pretty much knew exactly what every single opener was gonna do this weekend. The excitement in following box office now comes from when a movie breaks from the extrapolation after that opening day with shocking numbers, like a Top Gun or Super Mario Bros or PIB2 did. Wonka is doing fine. But with all due respect to the trackers, not a single number has been remotely surprising or thrilling since the first day of presales. It's been completely and utterly predictable. That doesn't make it less good. But it's also not particularly special or fun.

 

Anyway, Merry Christmas to you all - much love to my brothers and sisters on this wonderful place, even if I now sound like an old ass man yelling to get off my lawn.

[Eric the Minion]

Anyways, I'm going to bed

 

@WrathOfHan get ready to be #CONTROVERSIAL when I wake up. It's time for us to have our annual fun 😈

[AniNate]

Ridiculous legs are a lot more likely to come from a movie you don't expect it from. Not many people were hyping up Puss TLW or Greatest Showman before they came out. I had hope for such a situation w Migration also because it was being largely overlooked before release, but marketing turned out to be hiding a lot less than I thought it was.

[HummingLemon496]

What does it finish at if it does actually crash like Matrix Resurrections @charlie Jatinder? (which had HBO Max + pandemic + No Way Home)

Edited December 25, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[JimmyB]

2 hours ago, dallas said:

Aquaman is hitting $100M and Wonka is hitting $200M. 

I'd bet Aquaman hitting under 100m. The movie keeps coming in under estimates. 

[Borobudur]

9 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

Avatar does have little to no pop culture footprint. And I say that as someone who was insisting 700 and 2b for A2 would happen this time last year when many were in full blown “FLOP” mode before Xmas Day happened.

They are movies that can make boatloads of money, but they have not been a pop culture force. Outside of all of those “Avatar depression” people who actually wanted to be on Pandora for a few months after the first. Thats about the most pop culture footprint the franchise has ever given us.

Avatar maybe lacking of cultural legacy but the interest is there. If you paid attention you will realise the behind the scenes for Avatar garner millions of millions views on youtube. The view counts for all these BTS feature is rare. The crowd are clearly awestruck by VFX and care enough to explore behind the scene features. People may not be passionate enough but they care this world. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[ListenHunnyUrOver]

Avatar had huge cultural impact. It totally changed the way Hollywood approached blockbusters and VFX. Just wait until the Avatar franchise has 4 or 5 entries. The character names and concepts will be embedded in pop culture completely. 

[Mulder]

I feel like Avatar's pop culture impact has showed itself more with Way of Water and after. People just don't talk about it over and over because Cameron's kept it to the movies, two games no one played, and comics no one reads and honestly that's fine.