Christmas-New Year Weekdays Thread (12/26-28)

[Grand Cine]

My final prediction for Top 10 :

 

Wonka : 26M/34M 4 Days Weekend

Migration : 18M/23,5M

Aquaman : 17M/23M

TCP : 10,5M/14M

Anyone But You : 7,5M/10M

The Boys and the Boat : 7M/9,5M

Iron Claw : 4,3M/5,7M

Ferrari : 3,7M/4,9M

HG  : 2,7M/3,6M

The Boy and the Heron : 2,2M/2,9M

 

Bonus : Trolls 3 : 2M/2,6M (98,1M after New Year Day , 100M is locked i think and two Universal movies animations in a row to pass the 100M Mark)

[titanic2187]

Migration seem going up from Wednesday but knowing ERC are infamously sloppy with their rounding, I would take a more caution approach.

 

 

[abracadabra1998]

10 minutes ago, dallas said:

I don't know what kind of theaters you guys go to but I don't have half the problems y'all are complaining about, especially the phone thing. 

If you wanna have some fun go on r/movies and look up movie theaters. Every other person on there has had some kind of calamity happen to them while watching a movie in a theater

[dallas]

 

 

[cannastop]

3 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

If you wanna have some fun go on r/movies and look up movie theaters. Every other person on there has had some kind of calamity happen to them while watching a movie in a theater

I've seen posts about people taking out whole ass laptops during movies... that would piss me off

[titanic2187]

Aquaman, trolls 3 and migration are quite safe for 100m finish after the strong mid-week grosses. They should be the next three going to 100m. I thought the safest of all is TCP after that 18m OD but turn out it has the slimmest chance now. 

[dallas]

It's a shame. I thought for sure WB was going to have three $100M domestic grossers. But it looks like that's only going to be Wonka and Aquaman. TCP still has a chance, but it's a very, very, very slim chance.

[filmlover]

Kind of nutty there's a slight chance Anyone But You has a bigger weekend than The Color Purple. Don't think anyone bet on the former being a mini-breakout, or the latter just being that frontloaded.

[baumer]

18 minutes ago, dallas said:

I don't know what kind of theaters you guys go to but I don't have half the problems y'all are complaining about, especially the phone thing. 

The local theater I go to in one of the northern suburbs of Toronto is terrible terrible terrible now. I probably get 20 minutes worth of commercials and trailers as well and the people who come to the movies now are some of the most rude and ignorant troglodytes you can possibly imagine. Talking throughout the movie, surfing texting I've even had people take phone calls in the theater before and it's not an exaggeration. I just find some of the youth these days or young adults just have no courtesy or respect for anybody else around them.

[M37]

24 minutes ago, JonathanMB said:

So I calculated the weekend-to-week multipliers for movies from the same 2017 weekend:

 

 

The Last Jedi - 2.35

Jumanji: WttJ - 2.83

Pitch Perfect 3 - 2.33

Greatest Showman - 3.28

Ferdinand - 3.10

Coco - 3.02

Downsizing - 2.51

Darkest Hour - 2.52

Father Figures - 2.76

The Shape of Water - 2.52

 

And then calculated the same numbers for the movies this year. For the 12/22 openers I did two numbers - the first is with Thursday previews, and the second number is without (since previews start so much earlier this year, plus Jumanji and TGS were Wednesday openers in '17):

 

 

Aquaman 2 - 2.11/2.32

Wonka - 2.95

Anyone But You - 2.68/3.10

The Iron Claw - 2.32/2.54

The Boy and the Heron - 2.16

 

Actually pretty comparable to similar movies from 2017, especially with the Thursday previews removed.

And from that can find the closet analog and project the expected weekend from Thursday

 

Wonka = $22M (Ferdinand/Showman blend)

Migration = $17.5M (Ferdinand)

Aquaman = $16M (TLJ)

TCP = $12M

Boys in the Boat = $8.5M

Anyone But You = $7.5M (PP3)

Iron Claw = $4.5M (Downsizing)

Ferrari = $4M

 

So $95M, maybe $100 for the T10, down a smidge from last year (which had both NYE and NYD)

[Wandavisionlover0924]

2 hours ago, Taylor said:

There's a "trend" on TikTok right now of people (mostly girls) skipping while leaving the theatre for ABY and saying romcoms are "back," etc. WOM seems strong among the target audience, even though its rated R.

So cringe. 

[Kon]

7 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Kind of nutty there's a slight chance Anyone But You has a bigger weekend than The Color Purple. Don't think anyone bet on the former being a mini-breakout, or the latter just being that frontloaded.

 

Anyone But You getting a bigger weekend than The Color Purple would be a big surprise.

 

The legs of The Color Purple will need to be horrible. Unfortunately, it doesn't seem impossible anymore.

Edited December 29, 2023 by Kon

[VanillaSkies]

Anyone But You should hit or be very close to its 25m budget with its domestic total by New Year’s Day. That’s pretty impressive, especially since it seems to be doing well in Australia and some other territories. WW gross will definitely be above 50m. 
 

The magic of the Christmas holiday corridor. Now Sony gets to release it for PVOD just in time for Valentines Day and make a killing there too. 

[titanic2187]

Could be the three highest grossing Neon movie after parasite and I, tonya

 

[Wandavisionlover0924]

11 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Kind of nutty there's a slight chance Anyone But You has a bigger weekend than The Color Purple. Don't think anyone bet on the former being a mini-breakout, or the latter just being that frontloaded.

Omg right. That's what I'm stuck on 

[cannastop]

23 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:

The Boy and the Heron : 2,2M/2,9M

nice 😎

 

 

[AniNate]

35 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Migration seem going up from Wednesday but knowing ERC are infamously sloppy with their rounding, I would take a more caution approach.

 

 

 

That would be a relatively modest increase compared to Ferdinand, but ofc we're basically talking a rounding error comparing 5% and 7%.

 

The post New Years week will be the big test, Ferdinand dropped 55% while still having 3000+ theaters but Puss 2 held under 40%.  Sing 2 dropped about 57% the seven days following NY Day.

 

 

Edited December 29, 2023 by AniNate

[ChipDerby]

2 hours ago, AniNate said:

 

I don't think this is the best example to use. That's a dramatic spoiler at the end of the movie, not its fundamental premise.

 

I don't think saying "what if they made a Jason movie a musical" isn't a good example either.

 

In fact, making a prequel to a musical pretty much implies it's a musical. 

[Borobudur]

ITSV and Wonka has been my comparison pair between two but Wonka really blew ITSV out after the first Monday. A bit unexpected tbh because ITSV had such a strong WOM that Wonka never come close. It was A+ cinemascore and pretty much everyone list it as one of the best of the year.

[JonathanMB]

49 minutes ago, M37 said:

And from that can find the closet analog and project the expected weekend from Thursday

 

Wonka = $22M (Ferdinand/Showman blend)

Migration = $17.5M (Ferdinand)

Aquaman = $16M (TLJ)

TCP = $12M

Boys in the Boat = $8.5M

Anyone But You = $7.5M (PP3)

Iron Claw = $4.5M (Downsizing)

Ferrari = $4M

 

So $95M, maybe $100 for the T10, down a smidge from last year (which had both NYE and NYD)

 

Worth noting though that there's a lot more outside the top 10 this year too, with Godzilla, Heron, Poor Things, Trolls, maybe even Wish all making $1.5-2.5M, so those all add an extra $10M+. Last year the #13 movie for the weekend made just under $76,000. So, overall a stronger weekend.