MLK Weekend Thread | 3-Day/4-Day Estimates: Mean Girls 28/32, Beekeeper 16.8/19.2, Wonka 8.4/10.9, Migration 6.2/8.3, Anyone 6.9/8.2

[Claire of Themyscira]

Alamo Drafthouse is fun. They are showing the extended versions of Lord Of The Rings, which I never saw. Finally, I got to see The Two Towers today with my best friend. Yesterday's showing was almost completely sold out on Wednesday, but today only sold like 10 tickets...crazy how much a difference the showtime makes.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

2 minutes ago, Noctis said:

 

OW for WW2 in a world without Covid would have had an OW of $150m+. An easy $330m+ grosser at the absolute minimum.

I'd downgrade that opening to around $130M, and the total to $250M or so. In a normal world it would've had atrocious word of mouth and been the second coming of Batman v Superman. It pretty much ended Patty Jenkins's career in the world we ended up in. That says something.

[Eric the Minion]

16 minutes ago, Legion Again said:

Soul had very good reception and legs internationally in its original release despite the ease of piracy from the release model. I do feel good about hitting 300+ dom still in a world where COVID never happened.

Understandable, but also important to recognize that Soul released in a time when there was little out for theaters to play in those markets, which made it easier to leg out. Soul was going to drop a week before Top Gun: Maverick, and two weeks before Minions 2. Who knows how much they would have made in 2020, but they were both certainly set to be some of the biggest movies of that year. And Minions was direct competition. Not saying they all couldn't coexist, but they would have for sure dented Soul a bit.

[Spidey Freak]

1 hour ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

I'd downgrade that opening to around $130M, and the total to $250M or so. In a normal world it would've had atrocious word of mouth and been the second coming of Batman v Superman. It pretty much ended Patty Jenkins's career in the world we ended up in. That says something.

 

The pandemic situation made things worse for WW84 as ppl really needed it to be as good as the first after the crappy year they had in 2020. The first major CBM of the pandemic was always going to have it rough if it didn't knock it out of the park for fans like say, an NWH.

 

Things would have been different for the movie in a regular Summer 2020. The reviews were mixed, not downright toxic, and so would reception have been. A good film would have probably opened at BvS numbers. But I think WW84 with its quality would have managed 150M OW

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Unrelated, but how much would have this movie done in normal times (OW/DOM/WW)?

 

So it made $170m with only 40% of US cinemas open. At half capacity. During the pandemic. While being available online for free. And only half the overseas countries as normal (with capacity restrictions and pandemic etc). So rough maths guess $700m+. 

Edited January 14 by Krissykins

[Joyous Legion]

1 hour ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Yes I agree, a good comp is Guardians 1 --> Guardians 2

The problem with this comp of course being reception. If WW84 was received like WW1 I would say more like 180/525/1.1 or something

[Kon]

3 hours ago, Noctis said:

 

OW for WW2 in a world without Covid would have had an OW of $150m+. An easy $330m+ grosser at the absolute minimum.

I would never say an absolute grosser. In this forum, I have read about so many "absolute grosser" films that never reach that number.

 

Many people really dislike WW84, so it's always possible the legs were really horrible.

Edited January 14 by Kon

[cannastop]

5 hours ago, Eric George said:

There's a reason why Luca and especially Turning Red are frequently on the Disney+ Trending page, while Soul never charts at all.

Not that it matters but I think Soul charted like once on those charts you're talking about. Not as much as Turning Red and Luca of course.

[4815162342]

1 hour ago, Kon said:

 

Many people really dislike WW84, so it's always possible the legs were really horrible.

 

In a world without COVID where the film production industry isn't effectively shut down there may have been reshoots, etc in the 2020 calendar year that addressed issues that actually available test screenings that year may have picked up.

 

Who knows it's a what if game

[M37]

6 hours ago, Noctis said:

 

OW for WW2 in a world without Covid would have had an OW of $150m+. An easy $330m+ grosser at the absolute minimum.

6 hours ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Yes I agree, a good comp is Guardians 1 --> Guardians 2

I agree this is a good place to start in the hypothetical, but have to adjust for seasons. While the OW for GOTG2, was 56% higher than GOTG ($148M vs $94M), the former was in May (vs August) where more business gets squeezed into weekends; the full first week was a smaller +37% ($183M vs $134M). Also came at a time when the MCU saga was really starting to take off in general, and really no such boost for DCEU
 

WW84 keeping the same early June date would have probably had an expected OW stating value of ~$120-$130M OW, maybe a bit higher, but probably around if not below $350M total given the tepid WOM. So basically Thor L&T

Edited January 14 by M37

[Joyous Legion]

Now that L&T is out it’s actually quite an interesting parallel to 84 especially with both of the predecessors being 2017.   

[Liiviig 1998]

6 hours ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Unrelated, but how much would have this movie done in normal times (OW/DOM/WW)?

 

Original made 400m domestic and pretty popular.

Tepid WOM would definitely cut it's legs

 

135-150m ow

280-325m Dom

600m+ WW.

 

 

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

 

[Issac Newton]

Perfect Million by Monday!

 

[crazymoviekid]

3 hours ago, cannastop said:

Not that it matters but I think Soul charted like once on those charts you're talking about. Not as much as Turning Red and Luca of course.

For the first 6 weeks of D+, these how the three compared...

 

Soul - 43M (74M Subs)

Luca - 65.55M (103M Subs)

TR - 60.18M (162M Subs)

 

I mean it charted. Just not as high, but was also at a time of fewer subs. 

[Eric the Minion]

1 minute ago, Issac Newton said:

Perfect Million by Monday!

 

"Estimated 4-Day weekend gross is $299M"

Wow! People are obsessed with super sad Auschwitz movies. Who knew?

[Issac Newton]