MLK Weekend Thread | 3-Day/4-Day Estimates: Mean Girls 28/32, Beekeeper 16.8/19.2, Wonka 8.4/10.9, Migration 6.2/8.3, Anyone 6.9/8.2

[LonePirate]

This forum’s obsession with debating if a movie is or is not a bomb is a strange one. I suspect none of us are bean counters for a studio or deep pocketed investors in a film, so the level of profitability or lack thereof for a film is mostly inconsequential.

[dallas]

8 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

This forum’s obsession with debating if a movie is or is not a bomb is a strange one. I suspect none of us are bean counters for a studio or deep pocketed investors in a film, so the level of profitability or lack thereof for a film is mostly inconsequential.

This is literally a box office forum. The box office determines whether a movie makes money or not, so ofc there will be discussion regarding whether a movie did or didn't break even. Don't know what we ought to talk about instead besides "oh wow big numbers"

[Noctis]

How much did Mean Girls do? I don't understand why BOM doesn't have its numbers posted. God, how that site has gone to the sewers.

[M37]

56 minutes ago, Noctis said:

How much did Mean Girls do? I don't understand why BOM doesn't have its numbers posted. God, how that site has gone to the sewers.

They’re posted, just off by a factor of 1000 so down at #27 of the weekend chart 

 

$28 & $32 are the 3 and 4 day estimates 

[Kon]

4 hours ago, LonePirate said:

This forum’s obsession with debating if a movie is or is not a bomb is a strange one. I suspect none of us are bean counters for a studio or deep pocketed investors in a film, so the level of profitability or lack thereof for a film is mostly inconsequential.

I read that argument many times on this forum. Honestly, sometimes I feel this argument exist because people don't want the movies they like to be called bombs.

 

I don't really understand why people try to dismiss the debate about profit. Yeah, opinions in forums are inconsequential, but that apply to every topic about these movies.

Edited January 15 by Kon

[Liiviig 1998]

TLM was able to break even on 2.3x thanks  to big  domestic number. 

 

297* 0.55 = 160mish revenue.

 

Aqm2  125* 0.55 = roughly 70m in revenue.

 

TLM theatrical revenue alone exceeds Aquaman domestic total by quite a healthy 40m+

 

Breakeven range used by trades is 2-2.5* . It doesnt mean any film that makes 2x it's pd bud has broken even.

 

2.5* is the safe bet.

 

Those that breakeven closer to 2x always have the benefit of really strong domestic numbers.

 

Don't know if  Aquaman 2 will breakeven  70ish revenue Dom.

About 100m os -china (250*0.4)

15m china (60*0.25)

 

About 180ish theatrical revenue  goes back to studio is my guess. About 20m+ below production budget. Think it will be close and if  it loses  money it's not more than 50m.

 

 

 

 

Edited January 15 by Liiviig 1998

[John Marston]

Aquaman is a flop. However it is still making more than a lot of people ended up expecting. Making more than The Flash and The Marvels is a pretty impressive considering The Flash was heavily marketed, The Marvels was still part of an ongoing story, and Aquaman was all but dumped

[Mojoguy]

Aquaman 2 is going to make close to if not reach 400m WW and people are calling it a flop, while Marvels barely made over 200m WW which was way worse. There are different levels of flops.

[Issac Newton]

Sunday / Total

 

Hanuman - $800,090 / $2,508,235

Guntur Kaaram - $183,178 / $2,261,339

Ayalaan - $96,610 / $272,292

Captain Miller - $65,800 / $288,506

Saindhav - $35,453 / $179,476

Naa Saami Ranga - $29,802 / $50,784

 

-0.16% Sunday for Hanuman.

[ThePrinceIsOnFire]

On the one hand, this is a box office forum, so discussions should arise mainly from the numbers and datas; on the other hand, though, it's hard to talk about a movie's performance without looking at the context surrounding its release.

 

Aquaman 2 is flop (as in, a movie that will generate a loss) but it was dumped with no promotion, no premiere, no international event, no merch tie-ins and came after a string of DC/superhero genre bombs that lowered expectation. So when everything is considered, it is a "success" in defying odds and performing quite decently while giving some much needed life support to the DC brand.

The Little mermaid might have reached a break-even point (thought it is not sure by any means) but had arguably the biggest marketing campaign of 2023 after Barbie, with partnership with mc donalds, make up, fashion and jewelery brands. It also came after a long series of Disney live action hits/Mega hits and was expected to outgross Aladdin at least domestically thanks to the potential afro-american demo pull.  It went on to earn aboout half of what Aladdin did WW and 50M less Dom, while internationally it played like Dumbo which was the lowest bar for a live action remake ever. It also tarnished the Disney live action brand as a sure fire hit machine and helped the deterioration of the disney reputation as a whole, as a big slice of the public has been increasingly upset over what has been perceived as a "woke" agenda. 

 

Likewise -  and I am getting and will get a lot of hate by saying this because people are just not able to look at the bigger picture when they like something - Hunger Games BOSS has made a profit and is a success on paper, but is it really a win when it 1) earned less than half of the previous installment, collapsing especially worldwide due to being rejected by most international markets, 2) it shifted the tone and overall demo of the saga by making it exclusively fit for the girls aged 13-29 crowd, to a point where the franchise will be a hard sell for men/boys going forward? 

 

Not everything is black/white by the numbers. I will attract even more hate but I said weeks ago that Wonka might  not reach 200 M dom and 600 M WW, and that would certainly be a disappointing result when looking at the bigger picture, even though Wonka is a big success if we go by the numbers alone and profit. 

 

Let's say a sequel to Barbie in 2030 earns 500 M WW out of a 100 M budget, that would be a great success on paper but when framed in the bigger picture, could it be considered as such or would it be a disappointment?

 

 

Edited January 15 by ThePrinceIsOnFire

[Kon]

17 minutes ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:

 Likewise -  and I am getting and will get a lot of hate by saying this because people are just not able to look at the bigger picture when they like something - Hunger Games BOSS has made a profit and is a success on paper, but is it really a win when it 1) earned less than half of the previous installment, collapsing especially worldwide due to being rejected by most international markets, 2) it shifted the tone and overall demo of the saga by making it exclusively fit for the girls aged 13-29 crowd, to a point where the franchise will be a hard sell for men/boys going forward? 

 

 

To be fair, in the context, The Hunger Games doesn't really end on a high note with Mockingjay Part 2 and the franchise has been pretty forgotten for the last years. Also, BOSS follows the story of new characters (technically, Snow isn't new, but he is a pretty different character). Not to mention that the Teen Dystopian gender has really fall on popularity.

 

So, I wouldn't say the BOSS box office is dissappointing on that context. The OW shows there isn't so much interest in the franchise, but the legs show good reception.

 

 

PS: The Hunger Games movies have always been mainly directed to women. Mockingjay female audience was 60%, while BOSS female audience was 65%

Edited January 15 by Kon

[Joel M]

6 minutes ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:

Likewise -  and I am getting and will get a lot of hate by saying this because people are just not able to look at the bigger picture when they like something - Hunger Games BOSS has made a profit and is a success on paper, but is it really a win when it 1) earned less than half of the previous installment, collapsing especially worldwide due to being rejected by most international markets, 2) it shifted the tone and overall demo of the saga by making it exclusively fit for the girls aged 13-29 crowd, to a point where the franchise will be a hard sell for men/boys going forward? 

 

Not everything is black/white by the numbers. I will attract even more hate but I said weeks ago that Wonka might  not reach 200 M dom and 600 M WW, and that would certainly be a disappointing result when looking at the bigger picture, even though Wonka is a big success if we go by the numbers alone and profit. 

 

 

 

Sorry but this is nuts. Those were spin-offs trying to revive dead and buried IPs. Wonka was at best a wild card and Hunger Games was for most people a bomb waiting to happen. I really don't get how 600m was expected from Wonka. I don't get how HGBOSS was expected to pull in the male demographic when most expected to not even get the girls interested.

[ThePrinceIsOnFire]

7 minutes ago, Kon said:

PS: The Hunger Games movies have always been mainly directed to women.

 

"Mainly" being the key word here, they still had a roughly 60/40 breakdown that was reflected on BOSS's opening weekend but as the weeks went on the demo skewed more and more female so going forward we can expect the next installment (should they make another one, which seems very likely) to be more 70/30. That is worrisome imho.

[ThePrinceIsOnFire]

2 minutes ago, Joel M said:

 

Sorry but this is nuts. Those were spin-offs trying to revive dead and buried IPs. Wonka was at best a wild card and Hunger Games was for most people a bomb waiting to happen. I really don't get how 600m was expected from Wonka. I don't get how HGBOSS was expected to pull in the male demographic when most expected to not even get the girls interested.

This is reviosinism. Just go on the box office clubs page and you will se that a big chunk of users here were expecting Wonka to be a 300 M+ Dom grosser. And that was months ago, before the massive promotion even started and some movies got delayed/pushed back. 

 

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[Krissykins]

Beekeeper slightly overestimated for the 3 day. 
 

Mean Girls was underestimated for both. 

Edited January 15 by Krissykins

[Juliet]

48 minutes ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:

 

"Mainly" being the key word here, they still had a roughly 60/40 breakdown that was reflected on BOSS's opening weekend but as the weeks went on the demo skewed more and more female so going forward we can expect the next installment (should they make another one, which seems very likely) to be more 70/30. That is worrisome imho.

 

Because a lot of the repeat business was for Mr Tom Blyth. (who I hope has gotten some attention on the back of this) 

Its strange because the OG Hunger Games has a female protagonist. Something these days that would probably draw ire from Twitter folk. Other than the very first trailer the promo made it clear the main character was a guy. If you can't get the boys in for a story that is mostly about a teenage boy, what can you do?

[Kon]

46 minutes ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:

This is reviosinism. Just go on the box office clubs page and you will se that a big chunk of users here were expecting Wonka to be a 300 M+ Dom grosser. And that was months ago, before the massive promotion even started and some movies got delayed/pushed back. 

 

 

I still remember people didn't have so many good expectatives when the first trailer was released. In fact, most opinions in this forum were negative.

 

There were people expecting a big box office from Wonka, but I'm pretty sure that happened after we read about the good reviews.

 

[Issac Newton]