Weekend Thread - (01/19-01/21)

[Cmasterclay]

12 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

It's possible. Or it could be another Color Purple that does not cross over past one Demo in any way. It's funny everybody talks about Argyle as the movie they are so sick of seeing the trailer they have no desire to see it. One love is that movie for me. This is the problem with a 6 month labor stoppage making it so fewer movies are coming out. We have to see the same dam trailers over and over again even if they don't fit the movie they are playing in front of. 

I have seen so many posts comparing it to Color Purple that just don't make any sense. Is Color Purple going to be considered the new ceiling for any film starring black people? Or is it possible a breezy biopic with some of the most famous songs in modern history might be a more palatable watch than a brutal, long musical? Also, white people fucking love Bob Marley! Hasn't anyone here ever been in a college dorm room? You can't go to a party with a pothead over 35 without the soundtrack being mostly reggae. Maybe it doesn't do as well as I think, but some of the comments on this board about it being comparable to Color Purple or frankly even the Whitney movie are a reminder this board isn't exactly reflective of larger American demographics and culture. Marley's an icon beyond icons.

[JimmyB]

6 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I have seen so many posts comparing it to Color Purple that just don't make any sense. Is Color Purple going to be considered the new ceiling for any film starring black people? Or is it possible a breezy biopic with some of the most famous songs in modern history might be a more palatable watch than a brutal, long musical? Also, white people fucking love Bob Marley! Hasn't anyone here ever been in a college dorm room? You can't go to a party with a pothead over 35 without the soundtrack being mostly reggae. Maybe it doesn't do as well as I think, but some of the comments on this board about it being comparable to Color Purple or frankly even the Whitney movie are a reminder this board isn't exactly reflective of larger American demographics and culture. Marley's an icon beyond icons.

Eh, Whitney bio-pic seems like a far comp.  Bob Marley isnt pulling in huge numbers.  White people fucking loved Whitney too and Bob Marley trailer looks like a by the book bio pic. 

[emoviefan]

5 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I have seen so many posts comparing it to Color Purple that just don't make any sense. Is Color Purple going to be considered the new ceiling for any film starring black people? Or is it possible a breezy biopic with some of the most famous songs in modern history might be a more palatable watch than a brutal, long musical? Also, white people fucking love Bob Marley! Hasn't anyone here ever been in a college dorm room? You can't go to a party with a pothead over 35 without the soundtrack being mostly reggae. Maybe it doesn't do as well as I think, but some of the comments on this board about it being comparable to Color Purple or frankly even the Whitney movie are a reminder this board isn't exactly reflective of larger American demographics and culture. Marley's an icon beyond icons.

Yeah. Good points  Like I said I just wish I had not seen the trailers to this so many dam times that it feels just like Biopic 101 right now. Of course that's what  will probably get the casuals interested. We need something to make money in February if Argyle and Madame Web are non starters. 

[filmlover]

A Bob Marley biopic feels like it should be a big deal but everything surrounding this movie has been very silent and ineffective. That "two names for the price of one" title doesn't inspire much confidence either.

 

The fact they never even bothered to try and position it as an awards player, even though the director's last movie was an Oscar winning biopic for acting (then again, he did also make that Mark Wahlberg anti-bullying/anti-homophobia drama that instantly fell into the ether), also seems like an indication the studio isn't expecting much from this either.

[Cmasterclay]

10 minutes ago, JimmyB said:

Eh, Whitney bio-pic seems like a far comp.  Bob Marley isnt pulling in huge numbers.  White people fucking loved Whitney too and Bob Marley trailer looks like a by the book bio pic. 

Whitney Houston was certainly an incredibly beloved and popular musician who sold a shit ton of famous records, but Marley kind of transcends just popular music into being a cultural titan IMO. We shall see! Market is alot better than it was for Whitney too.

[ThomasNicole]

Extremely strong, with Oscar bump still coming

 

Can try 25-30M only in these 19 countries

 

Hopefully it can play like this globally, 65M is probably enough for 100M WW

 

 

 

[Grand Cine]

Deadline said in their weekend report that Anyone But You is the highest grossing R-rated romantic comedy since 2016’s Bridget Jones’s Baby (211,9M in total)

Edited January 21 by Grand Cine

[Kon]

50 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I have seen so many posts comparing it to Color Purple that just don't make any sense. Is Color Purple going to be considered the new ceiling for any film starring black people? Or is it possible a breezy biopic with some of the most famous songs in modern history might be a more palatable watch than a brutal, long musical? Also, white people fucking love Bob Marley! Hasn't anyone here ever been in a college dorm room? You can't go to a party with a pothead over 35 without the soundtrack being mostly reggae. Maybe it doesn't do as well as I think, but some of the comments on this board about it being comparable to Color Purple or frankly even the Whitney movie are a reminder this board isn't exactly reflective of larger American demographics and culture. Marley's an icon beyond icons.

 

Honestly, I need to know what threads are speaking about this movie, because it's the first time I read about this movie in this forum.

[Cmasterclay]

To be clear, I think there's a good chance that One Love stinks given the release window they picked for it, and if it does go rotten then I see under 50m. But if it goes fresh, I think it's going to do quite well. That's my caveat prediction.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

54 minutes ago, JimmyB said:

Eh, Whitney bio-pic seems like a far comp.  Bob Marley isnt pulling in huge numbers.  White people fucking loved Whitney too and Bob Marley trailer looks like a by the book bio pic. 

The Whitney Houston movie had the problem of being "too soon". Since 2012, there had already been multiple Whitney documentaries and a TV movie that included her songs (though not her vocals). Plus, the actress looked more like Brandy than Whitney.

 

Fanbases don't like "gritty" music biopics that show the reality of their fave. The movie usually ends up lightly referencing the person's "controversy" (drugs, sexuality, abuse, etc) enough to say it wasn't a complete whitewash, but critics still bash it as tame. Bohemian Rhapsody results were pretty rare even before Covid.

 

 

49 minutes ago, filmlover said:

A Bob Marley biopic feels like it should be a big deal but everything surrounding this movie has been very silent and ineffective. That "two names for the price of one" title doesn't inspire much confidence either.

 

The fact they never even bothered to try and position it as an awards player, even though the director's last movie was an Oscar winning biopic for acting (then again, he did also make that Mark Wahlberg anti-bullying/anti-homophobia drama that instantly fell into the ether), also seems like an indication the studio isn't expecting much from this either.

2023 is an incredibly crowded awards year so I get why they didn't bother. Even if it's not an awards play for 2024, cut a new trailer that's basically a megamix of the breeziest hits (with minimal dialogue) and release the movie in the summer.

Edited January 21 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[Mojoguy]

34 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Extremely strong, with Oscar bump still coming

 

Can try 25-30M only in these 19 countries

 

Hopefully it can play like this globally, 65M is probably enough for 100M WW

 

 

 

I  wonder if Poor Things is EVER going wide wide like 3000+ theaters. If it still doesn't get a big expansion this Fri after Oscar Noms, I'm going to give up on ever seeing it.

[Valonqar]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

It's the same grassroots campaign that paid off for Andrea Riseborough last year. If Ellis manages a nomination Tuesday, why would anyone need studio campaigning going forward when Rose's Mom can get the job done herself? 

 

If Ellis gets in it will be interesting to see at whose expense. 

 

1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

So Aquaman 2 passed Black Adam worldwide this weekend. 
 

$425-430m final maybe. 

 

Really saved its face with late legs. If WB didn't wait so long could have made more. 

 

1 hour ago, Grand Cine said:

The movie has a good chance, if the holds continue to be good, to be the biggest rom com Movie of the Post-Covid era ( surpass Ticket to Paradise) and the biggest since Crazy Rich Asian in 2018, i think .

 

The movie has also France/Italy/Brazil to open this incoming week

 

Not idea about France but Brazil and Italy should be romance-friendly markets at least Brazil considering all the dating show spin-offs that the country is getting (Too Hot to Handle Brazil, Love Is Blind Brazil, etc).

 

 

[MisterLibby]

On 1/20/2024 at 12:22 PM, emoviefan said:

It's like there was a 6 month work stoppage due mostly to corporate greed or something. 

Did anything notable get moved out of January? Maybe, but it’s not coming to mind. The calendar was already weak before the strikes. The strikes will exacerbate the lack-of-quantity problem going forward, but it was on a terrible trajectory even before the strikes.

[babz06]

23 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

I  wonder if Poor Things is EVER going wide wide like 3000+ theaters. If it still doesn't get a big expansion this Fri after Oscar Noms, I'm going to give up on ever seeing it.

I don’t know. The Favourite’s widest expansion was only 1500 theaters. It’s performing about on par with that film.  However there isn’t a lot of product in February (only 7 *new* wide releases)  so maybe it has a chance. 

Edited January 21 by babz06

[Eric Burnett]

28 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

To be clear, I think there's a good chance that One Love stinks given the release window they picked for it, and if it does go rotten then I see under 50m. But if it goes fresh, I think it's going to do quite well. That's my caveat prediction.

If the Bob Marley movie was going to be fresh, they would have given it a Christmas platform release into a mid-January release like they intended. This kind of movie is catnip for some acting nominations, at least at the Golden Globes, and easy buzz for the movie. The fact they moved up a month says a lot about its potential quality.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Anyone But You really was the nice surprise of the season box office wise. I was so sure that was gonna be the big bomb and I’m glad to be proven wrong.

 

that said, I am gonna pat myself on the back a bit after calling Wonka being the biggest film of the holiday season. Good drop for it this weekend too. Same with Beekeeper.

 

im with @Cmasterclay on Bob Marley too. I think it’ll win the five day weekend next month. 

[emoviefan]

17 minutes ago, MisterLibby said:

Did anything notable get moved out of January? Maybe, but it’s not coming to mind. The calendar was already weak before the strikes. The strikes will exacerbate the lack-of-quantity problem going forward, but it was on a terrible trajectory even before the strikes.

Yeah good point. It did not look that good pre strikes. The strikes only added to the problem.  Just like streaming was already on the rise and cutting into theatrical for movies pre  Covid and then that just turbocharged it. 

[emoviefan]

7 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

Anyone But You really was the nice surprise of the season box office wise. I was so sure that was gonna be the big bomb and I’m glad to be proven wrong.

 

that said, I am gonna pat myself on the back a bit after calling Wonka being the biggest film of the holiday season. Good drop for it this weekend too. Same with Beekeeper.

 

im with @Cmasterclay on Bob Marley too. I think it’ll win the five day weekend next month. 

Yeah but if Argyle bombs and is a non factor by that weekend and Madame Web stinks it won't take much for One Love to win the weekend. Can we just skip to  March 1?

Edited January 21 by emoviefan

[Grand Cine]

55 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

If Ellis gets in it will be interesting to see at whose expense. 

 

 

Really saved its face with late legs. If WB didn't wait so long could have made more. 

 

 

Not idea about France but Brazil and Italy should be romance-friendly markets at least Brazil considering all the dating show spin-offs that the country is getting (Too Hot to Handle Brazil, Love Is Blind Brazil, etc).

 

 

In France it's depending of the mood and the WOM but in general it's not good , No Hard Feelings made just 100k admissions ( it's a flop) but the movie was 2-3 days at the top on ITunes ( more success in streaming like other countries) , The Lost City made just 650K and Ticket to Paradise just under 400K so not the best country to make money

 

The advantage of Anyone But You is Sony made promotion on Tiktok . Also contrary to other movies that I quoted , he begin one month after the US and could profit of the WOM and box office of other countries + lack of competition . ( This wednesday , we have with ABY , Color People and May December ( yes , one of the few countries that the movie begin in theaters instead of Netflix)) 

[PrinceRico]

Just noticed One Love was Directed by the guy who made King Richard and Co written by the guy who wrote Creed 3 and King Richard and produced by Brad Pitt and his production company. Definitely see this being good.