Dune 2 Opening Weekend Thread [3/01/24 -3/03/24] [82.5m DOM OW]

[Firepower]

1 hour ago, Mr Roark said:

I mean Wonka crossed $600M this one will be absolutely bigger.

I'm not sure, it could gross less than Wonka if legs are less than great.

[AniNate]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Studios tend to want either the summer weekdays or the holidays when people have time off to get the most perceived mileage that they can from the animated movies but in this year's case the lack of product is likely just as much on the strike causing a production backlog. 

 

Elio was originally supposed to be out this weekend but the production issues must've been severe for it to get pushed back 15 months.

 

I don't think there were ever many high-profile titles staked out for the early part of this year, they just ignored Jan/Feb. At the moment though there are four family titles slated for next Jan/Feb in Paddington, Dogman, Smurfs, and some "inspirational drama" called Unbreakable Boy.

 

A particularly moronic move by Neon to not take advantage of both the Oscar nom and empty marketplace for Robot Dreams and deciding to bury it in the depths of the summer blockbuster machine. Also Orion and the Dark could've been a good theatrical option if Netflix wasn't Netflix.

 

 

Edited March 2 by AniNate

[titanic2187]

17 minutes ago, Firepower said:

I'm not sure, it could gross less than Wonka if legs are less than great.

To get to Wonka’s 217m, dune 2 probably need some 2.8x legs, which is a staying power that dune 2 may actually miss it if it followed Batman, Logan or Jw4, or creed III.

 

Speaking of wonka, I can’t imagine if people do double feature between Wonka and Dune 2 in the same week, only to find out Tim to transform from an inspirational, delightful, sweet and cute chocolate singer to a decisive, vengeful, semi-villainous cult warrior-leader. It is kind of crazy to have an actor to pull off those two polar opposite roles in such a short time. 

[Firepower]

10 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

To get to Wonka’s 217m, dune 2 probably need some 2.8x legs, which is a staying power that dune 2 may actually miss it if it followed Batman, Logan or Jw4, or creed III.

As long as it crosses 600 mln worldwide it should do fine, but 500 mln range would be disappointing and put Messiah in jeopardy.

[Liiviig 1998]

49 minutes ago, Firepower said:

I'm not sure, it could gross less than Wonka if legs are less than great.

Domestically. Wonka is winning I think.

 

World wide . Dune could slightly edge it out.

[von Kenni]

On 2/29/2024 at 6:00 PM, Porthos said:

 

https://deadline.com/2024/02/box-office-dune-part-two-1235842667/

 

Go nuts folks.  But not too nuts.

From Deadline SAT update:

 

Of those who’ve seen the movie, 47% said they’ll watch Dune: Part Two in a theater again — more than any other home watching option.

 

I wonder how much this can fuel legs this weekend and especially beyond. Repeat views will likely be on another level for this compared to Part 1.

[emoviefan]

34 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

To get to Wonka’s 217m, dune 2 probably need some 2.8x legs, which is a staying power that dune 2 may actually miss it if it followed Batman, Logan or Jw4, or creed III.

 

Speaking of wonka, I can’t imagine if people do double feature between Wonka and Dune 2 in the same week, only to find out Tim to transform from an inspirational, delightful, sweet and cute chocolate singer to a decisive, vengeful, semi-villainous cult warrior-leader. It is kind of crazy to have an actor to pull off those two polar opposite roles in such a short time. 

[AniNate]

Sound was really painful at my XD screening so I feel like I need to watch it again in a cheap theater

[AJG]

4 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Sound was really painful at my XD screening so I feel like I need to watch it again in a cheap theater

Had the same thing with SpiderVerse 2. Turns out the cinema I went to were legally forced to lower the sound at nighttime to not bother the neighbours. 

[TheFlatLannister]

2 hours ago, Mr Roark said:

Because DOM will be bigger this time but lets not forget that the first one came out with restrictions all over the world with strong competition in a weakened and crowded market and there were 4K copies online thanks to Max.

I mean Wonka crossed $600M this one will be absolutely bigger.

Wonka is not a great direct comp. Christmas is ridiculous juice for films and you can't really compare a family musical to a March Sci-fi movie. 

 

$210M/$630M is where I would have it at 

 

33/66 split seems reasonable 

[TheFlatLannister]

34 minutes ago, Firepower said:

As long as it crosses 600 mln worldwide it should do fine, but 500 mln range would be disappointing and put Messiah in jeopardy.

Dune 2 is a critical success. Even if it goes sub $550M, WB is greenlighting Dune 3. 

 

Plus, Dune 2 feels like a movie that will do super well on streaming 

[HummingLemon496]

Dune 2 needs what like $400M WW to break even? Will easily pass that with around $250M or whatever to spare

[von Kenni]

30 minutes ago, Firepower said:

As long as it crosses 600 mln worldwide it should do fine, but 500 mln range would be disappointing and put Messiah in jeopardy.

Over $500M ok, over $550M with smiles, and over $600M is gravy. Messiah is most likely greenlit way earlier and they'll probably announce it on this Tuesday like they did with Part 2 to get extra publicity or save it a week later (they don't need it so much now than right after Part 1 opening).

 

$500M with a true budget being likely around $150-155M after incentive rebates (there's a deeper breakdown on this in the Dune 2 thread which I'm still looking to update...) is waaay enough. The breakeven point is around $320-345M depending on the marketing budget size. $500M would be already about 3.3x the production budget....and if you want to use the $190M public figure that'll give 2.63x which makes it successful too.

 

There are no real stakes here other than our self-in-posed expectations.

[von Kenni]

34 minutes ago, von Kenni said:

From Deadline SAT update:

 

Of those who’ve seen the movie, 47% said they’ll watch Dune: Part Two in a theater again — more than any other home watching option.

 

I wonder how much this can fuel legs this weekend and especially beyond. Repeat views will likely be on another level for this compared to Part 1.

 

Same number (and other demo info) for Dune Part 1 from Deadline:

 

Interesting takeaway on PostTrak, of those who watched Dune in a theater, 30% said they’d watch it again in a theater

 

Over 50% jump but how much of that materializes is a different thing and what that means in actuality. Most likely it isn't a linear progression.

[AniNate]

Yeah the biggest obstacle to Dune 3 being made is the will of Villeneuve. Buzz is strong, he's earned the respect of Warner execs and they'll be more than happy to greenlight the "epic conclusion".

[MysteryMovieMogul]

14 minutes ago, von Kenni said:

 

Same number (and other demo info) for Dune Part 1 from Deadline:

 

Interesting takeaway on PostTrak, of those who watched Dune in a theater, 30% said they’d watch it again in a theater

 

Over 50% jump but how much of that materializes is a different thing and what that means in actuality. Most likely it isn't a linear progression.

Also, when they see it a second time matters. If they see it again in its first week, that's great. If they see it again on week 11, more of that money is going to the theater than the studio.

[JustLurking]

Villeneuve is an absolute god. What a film. Best theatrical experience I've ever had.

[The Wild Eric]

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

Speaking of wonka, I can’t imagine if people do double feature between Wonka and Dune 2 in the same week, only to find out Tim to transform from an inspirational, delightful, sweet and cute chocolate singer to a decisive, vengeful, semi-villainous cult warrior-leader. It is kind of crazy to have an actor to pull off those two polar opposite roles in such a short time. 

Only my baby can pull that off. Your faves could never

[Firepower]

40 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Dune 2 is a critical success. Even if it goes sub $550M, WB is greenlighting Dune 3. 

You can't put critical scores in your pocket. They didn't greenlight Part 2 to have a small increase over the first one on a bigger budget. In fact, it looks like they expected a billion and 100 mln OW. if that's true, I don't see WB not being very disappointed. Studios cancel sequels they announced before commerical results of a movie all the time, The Amazing Spider-Man 2 underperfomance killed already announced and dated Part 3 and 4.

40 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Plus, Dune 2 feels like a movie that will do super well on streaming 

You can't put streaming views in your pocket either, they mean absolutely nothing for a theatrical release. But even if we pretend they mean something, first Dune didn't have exceptional streaming results.

 

35 minutes ago, von Kenni said:

Over $500M ok

$500M is what the first one would've done without HBO Max release and Covid, it would mean no increase over the first one despite much better reception and bigger budget.

 

35 minutes ago, von Kenni said:

$500M with a true budget being likely around $150-155M after incentive rebates (there's a deeper breakdown on this in the Dune 2 thread which I'm still looking to update...) is waaay enough.

There's no chance the budget is 150-155 mln, you might as well believe in a tooth fairy.

 

Edited March 2 by Firepower

[DAJK]

2 minutes ago, Eric Atreides said:

Only my baby can pull that off. Your faves could never

I mean, Robin Williams did do Flubber and Good Will Hunting in the same year 🤷‍♂️