Dune 2 Opening Weekend Thread [3/01/24 -3/03/24] [82.5m DOM OW]

[Cmasterclay]

5 minutes ago, leoh said:

lol

 

I’m not a Dune hater, I’m just trying to be realistic since this started with people going crazy and projecting it to make 100+ OW… 1B ww…

 

anyways, do you really think 29M on Saturday will make it go much further than 80M+? Hopefully (theaters really need that money after that Jan/Feb) but tbh don’t think so… Idk we’ll find out on Monday when actuals are officially reported

It's a virtual certainty when you combine both the quality of the percentage drop with the higher baseline number. You're like Dune's Maggie.

 

To be clear, this isn't a personal insult to you or Maggie - that's a fun bit and it's just in good fun.

Edited March 3 by Cmasterclay

[dallas]

2 minutes ago, leoh said:

lol

 

I’m not a Dune hater, I’m just trying to be realistic since this started with people going crazy and projecting it to make 100+ OW… 1B ww…

 

anyways, do you really think 29M on Saturday will make it go much further than 80M? Hopefully (theaters really need this money after that Jan/Feb) but tbh don’t think so… Idk we’ll find out on Monday when actuals are officially reported

Yeah I wasn't trying to call you out in bad faith or anything, apologies if it seemed that way. And I do agree that all this $1B talk is too much. $600M or higher is a fantastic target for a movie like this, it doesn't need $1B to be a success. 

[keysersoze123]

Anyone can be wrong. Even @M37 who is data driven and  kept saying saturday cannot go higher than 2.6/2.7x thursday preview(not including early Imax number). I am wrong more often than not as well 🙂

[leoh]

8 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

It's a virtual certainty when you combine both the quality of the percentage drop with the higher baseline number. You're like Dune's Maggie.

really? I don’t think it can go much further than 80M, it won’t even beat Oppenheimer… but hopefully it can do this, it’d be good for theaters. I hope you’re right Dune can go further, cross 85M and get close to 90M this Sunday. Yet being realistic I don’t this is possible. Anyways, we’ll see on Monday when actuals are reported  

Edited March 3 by leoh

[WorkingonaName]

I hope Dune drops on sunday, caus I bet on the under $87M.

 

We are not the same.

[von Kenni]

6 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I didn't want to correct you then but MTC1 SAT PS did suggest this.

Yeah, but wasnt it depended on if the walkups are much better than Friday's...out of memory Friday was 128% of Dune 1 walkups and Saturday needed that comp to be somewhere around 140%-150? to get there?

 

Doable increase if course and total in range of possibilities driven by WOM and the audience dynamics spoken here but wanted to be cautious since THU the same walkup comp was 133% which went down to 128% on Friday instead of up yet.

 

Did you have earlier something to point that it would reach that 140-150% comp walkups on Saturday instead of keeping around 130%?

 

(in my last post here I was pointing to comparing how the films I mentioned did on Sat)

[Cmasterclay]

2 minutes ago, leoh said:

really? I don’t think it can go much further than 80M, it won’t even beat Oppenheimer… but hopefully it can do this, it’d be good for theaters. I hope you’re right Dune can go further and cross 85M to get close to 90M till Sunday. Yet being realistic I don’t this is possible. Anyways, we’ll see on Monday when actuals are reported  

If 29 is accurate, it is at 61 million, and would need 19 million on Sunday. That would be a 34% drop. A typical big March movie drops between 25 and 30% on Sunday - Wick dropped 28, Creed dropped 29. So to miss 80 would require a significantly steeper drop than most March live action movies. Not only does this look like it won't have a steeper drop, but based on that strong Saturday, it actually looks to have a much better drop than a typical March Sunday due to spillover demand and WOM, so something like a 20.5% drop down to 23 would be realistic, which would get it to 84. That's where I predict IF 29 for today is accurate in the end.

[leoh]

4 minutes ago, WorkingonaName said:

I hope Dune drops on sunday, caus I bet on the under $87M.

 

We are not the same.

your bet are safe, don’t worry

 

(although I’d love it to make something closer to 90M. But at this point this is not realistic)

Edited March 3 by leoh

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

If 29 is accurate, it is at 61 million, and would need 19 million on Sunday. That would be a 34% drop. A typical big March movie drops between 25 and 30% on Sunday - Wick dropped 28, Creed dropped 29. So to miss 80 would require a significantly steeper drop than most March live action movies. Not only does this look like it won't have a steeper drop, but based on that strong Saturday, it actually looks to have a much better drop than a typical March Sunday due to spillover demand and WOM, so something like a 20.5% drop down to 23 would be realistic, which would get it to 84. That's where I predict IF 29 for today is accurate in the end.

its definitely not dropping hard tomorrow. There would be spillover from today and this would play strong over weekend than during March weekdays. 

[von Kenni]

20 hours ago, von Kenni said:

Dune Walkups Tomorrow for $80M OW

 

Based on MTC1 comps when comparing Dune 1 and Dune 2 performance the walkups today were even lousier than yesterday with previews in relative turns. For previews, Dune 2 had 133% of Dune 1 walkups and today 128%. Based on Dune 1 FRI BO and ATP differences true FRI expected value is $20.5M which is aligned with the public $30-34M estimates ($12M previews + $20.5M = $32.5M).

 

I made below three scenarios for SAT actuals based on Dune 1 comps. Presales are stellar 224% of Dune 1 but if the walkups tomorrow are as lousy as today, then SAT is around $25.9M, which would be 26.6% jump from true FRI but would need just -16.9% drop in order to reach that mystical $80M OW. It would need clearly better walkups (140% of Dune 1) to reach a feasible scenario for $80M OW. If the WOM is there and the other hoped dynamics, why not, but it needs to do much better than today in any case.

 

That said, take all this with a grain of salt. Based on MTC1 Dune 1 comps THU previews should be $9.1M and based on industry reports it's somewhere between $9.5M and $10M. So if it is underperforming here too, FRI actuals will be a little bit higher and the SAT walkups don't necessarily need to be better at all or just by little to reach that $80M. Anyways, it probably won't go below $76M unless the rest of the weekend walkups are considerably worse than today and the Sunday drop is more than -28%.

 

If the true FRI is $21M (MTC1 underperforming like with previews) then similar walkups as today and with Sunday drop under 25% it would be around $80M.

 

 

 

27 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I didn't want to correct you then but MTC1 SAT PS did suggest this.

 

Ah, you mean Part 2 Fri and Sat preview numbers that suggest 35% bump?

[ando]

This is so dumb but I laugh at dumb shit

 

 

 

 

[Bob Train]

So Dune had a lower Thursday than expected, but IM'd better than expected, ending in the expected mid-80s range...

[Cmasterclay]

I'm really curious about legs. Obviously, the IM and word of mouth portend a leggy run, but plenty of blockbusters in modern times have had great IMs due to spillover business owing to PLF capacity and length that don't necessarily translate to legendary multipliers. Then again, this certainly feels like it could be the start of something. I think if it does 84 off a great Sunday hold, 235m seems reasonable - accounting for losing PLF screens on the 22nd, but also better legs than expected due to WOM.

[ThomasNicole]

1 hour ago, leoh said:

lol

 

I’m not a Dune hater, I’m just trying to be realistic since this started with people going crazy and projecting it to make 100+ OW… 1B ww…

 

anyways, do you really think 29M on Saturday will make it go much further than 80M? Hopefully (theaters really need this money after that Jan/Feb) but tbh don’t think so… Idk we’ll find out on Monday when actuals are officially reported

This is not true, i said 80M based on the data and you said to me 2 or 3 times on the tracking thread how that was the best case scenario and not likely. 
 

Now you say the absurd projections was a billion and +100M OW when you was treating way lower and realistic numbers as absurd just few days ago. 
 

And yes with 29M SAT it can go as high as 86M depending fully on SUN (which presales was stronger than FRI even before it opened). It doesn’t need to go further than 80M to be extremely succesful and on the stronger side of tracking.

 

Just to be clear, i’m not attacking you, if it comes across this way i’m sorry. Is just that your realistic approach was too low even with data showing the opposite.

Edited March 3 by ThomasNicole

[IchwanBigBrother]

I knew we were going to have a big jump on Saturday because my local theater is a pretty good average representative sample, and I saw many non PLF shows filling up after the PLF became sold out for every show. Said to myself there was no way that this was going to make the low estimates if this was happening. Hope those legs are amazing. 

[redfirebird2008]

34 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I'm really curious about legs. Obviously, the IM and word of mouth portend a leggy run, but plenty of blockbusters in modern times have had great IMs due to spillover business owing to PLF capacity and length that don't necessarily translate to legendary multipliers. Then again, this certainly feels like it could be the start of something. I think if it does 84 off a great Sunday hold, 235m seems reasonable - accounting for losing PLF screens on the 22nd, but also better legs than expected due to WOM.

I would think 250+ is a reasonable target. 

[Bob Train]

The Batman legs (adjusting for early streaming release) and assuming $83m OW would put Dune 2 in the "forbidden" $225m-$295m range...

[DAR]

40 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I'm really curious about legs. Obviously, the IM and word of mouth portend a leggy run, but plenty of blockbusters in modern times have had great IMs due to spillover business owing to PLF capacity and length that don't necessarily translate to legendary multipliers. Then again, this certainly feels like it could be the start of something. I think if it does 84 off a great Sunday hold, 235m seems reasonable - accounting for losing PLF screens on the 22nd, but also better legs than expected due to WOM.

I’m going to help out with legs next Saturday 

[leoh]

22 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

This is not true, i said 80M based on the data and you said to me 2 or 3 times on the tracking thread how that was the best case scenario and not likely. 
 

Now you say the absurd projections was a billion and +100M OW when you was treating way lower and realistic numbers as absurd just few days ago. 
 

And yes with 29M SAT it can go as high as 86M depending fully on SUN (which presales was stronger than FRI even before it opened). It doesn’t need to go further than 80M to be extremely succesful and on the stronger side of tracking.

 

Just to be clear, i’m not attacking you, if it comes across this way i’m sorry. Is just that your realistic approach was too low even with data showing the opposite.

you just need go back some pages and you see people complaining that @Shawn Robbins projection wasn’t considering Dune to make 100M OW domestically (Shawn turned out to be right, 100M was never a possibility for Dune). Those people were the same who  were arguing 1 billion ww was a possibility to Dune.

 

we came from that to “will dune hit 80M?”,  which I always considered way more realistic. 80M seems the best case scenario. It was unlikely at that time and now seems likely, maybe a bit more now. Yet I don’t think Dune can cross 85M OW, let alone 86. Anyways, I’d love you turn out to be right, theaters really need this movie after that Jan/Feb they had. 

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

Deadline and Gitesh prob will give 28 est today, if they give. They will be basing that on 20.2 fri