Dune 2 Opening Weekend Thread [3/01/24 -3/03/24] [82.5m DOM OW]

[von Kenni]

50 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 MTC1

Saturday Final - 429092/1218663 6939205.82 6953 shows +173902

Sunday - 210028/1159824 3476982.80 6565 shows +62445

 

Great walkups at last. This is going to play strong over weekend considering the length and it skewing Adult as well. My show did have some families with kids but was more adult driven that normal for a saturday 1130AM show. 

 

Sunday PS and pace shows its going to have an amazing drop as well. 

 

Yes! MTC1 pukes out $28.3M for Sat using Dune 1 comps. Adding that to reported Fri+previews is $60.5M total so just with $19.5M hitting $80M total. Can do 31% drop which it highly unlikely. Still MTC1 has probably underperformed a bit so Charlie's $29M could be closer to actuals.

 

Saturday walkups were 163% of Dune 1's vs. Thu 133%, Fri 128%. Overall ended 195% compared to Dune 1 with 5.8% ATP increase (these are MTC1 numbers so actuals can slightly differ).

 

Sunday presales is 210028 and Friday was 188677 for Dune Part 2. If walkups will be as lousy as on Friday Sun might be looking around $22.8M (19.4% drop) but if they are like on Saturday, then Sunday is $23.3M. Sun/Sat presale comp for Dune Part 2 expects 17.7% drop for Sunday. If the WOM works and walkups are even better relative terms for tomorrow, then the drop can be even smaller.

 

With expected values based on MTC1 and reported Fri+previews we're looking OW $32.2M+$28.3M+23.3M=$83.8M. With MTC1 slightly likely underperforming the actuals can be $0.5-1M more. IF Sunday walkups are even better, it can get to $85-86M region. If I would bet, I'd bet $85M with this information.

 

About next weekend, with current tracking it looks likely that Dune stays number one and Kung-Fu Panda opens second but too early to lock anything in. As we saw with Dune's tracking, much can change in short time...

Edited March 3 by von Kenni
bet

[vale9001]

16 minutes ago, ando said:

So Timothee is the lead in the two biggest films since last summer. Pretty crazy moment for him. 

Is the Bob Dylan biopic confirmed for this year?

[JustLurking]

2 minutes ago, von Kenni said:

 

Yes! MTC1 pukes out $28.3M for Sat using Dune 1 comps. Adding that to reported Fri+previews is $60.5M total so just with $19.5M hitting $80M total. Can do 31% drop which it highly unlikely. Still MTC1 has probably underperformed a bit so Charlie's $29M could be closer to actuals.

 

Saturday walkups were 163% of Dune 1's vs. Thu 133%, Fri 128%. Overall ended 195% compared to Dune 1 with 5.8% ATP increase (these are MTC1 numbers so actuals can slightly differ).

 

Sunday presales is 210028 and Friday was 188677 for Dune Part 2. If walkups will be as lousy as on Friday Sun might be looking around $22.8M (19.4% drop) but if they are like on Saturday, then Sunday is $23.3M. Sun/Sat presale comp for Dune Part 2 expects 17.7% drop for Sunday. If the WOM works and walkups are even better relative terms for tomorrow, then the drop can be even smaller.

 

With expected values based on MTC1 and reported Fri+previews we're looking OW $32.2M+$28.3M+23.3M=$83.8M. With MTC1 slightly likely underperforming the actuals can be $0.5-1M more. IF Sunday walkups are even better, it can get to $85-86M region.

 

About next weekend, with current tracking it looks likely that Dune stays number one and Kung-Fu Panda opens second but too early to lock anything in. As we saw with Dune's tracking, much can change in short time...

I'd be a bit careful on the sun walkups as very long films can kind of struggle during the evening hours.

[Starphanluke]

If this thing has an 8 in front of it’s number for the weekend, WB and Legendary will do what they did last time and announce Messiah this week.

[Porthos]

*logs back in*

*sees the typical BOT Roller Coaster/Whiplash of Emotions during a high stakes OW*

 

Oh yes...

 

Edited March 3 by Porthos

[JustLurking]

Just now, Porthos said:

*logs back in*

*sees the typical BOT Roller Coaster/Whiplash of Emotions during a high stales OW*

 

Oh yes...

 

Would you have it any other way, though?

[Starphanluke]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

*logs back in*

*sees the typical BOT Roller Coaster/Whiplash of Emotions during a high stakes OW*

 

Oh yes...

 

It just feels right

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Would you have it any other way, though?

 

 

[von Kenni]

15 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

I'd be a bit careful on the sun walkups as very long films can kind of struggle during the evening hours.

Good point. Maybe caution at least against much better walkups than on Saturday. Maybe that and the increasing WOM evens it up and the walkups stay "just" as good as on Saturday keeping it on track for $84M. Even if it's lousy as on Friday, it would be just closer to $83M. The presales are just so strong.

 

Maybe as rule of thumb here, if walkups are

 

Bad like Friday: $83M

Like on Saturday: $84M

Following Saturday's upward trajectory: $85M

Accelerating from Saturday: $86M

 

The joker is how accurate that reported $32.2M is and if Sat is around $28.3M or $29M (more likely). Joker can add or remove $1M. So with the information we have it'll be between $82M-$87M.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

28 minutes ago, Starphanluke said:

If this thing has an 8 in front of it’s number for the weekend, WB and Legendary will do what they did last time and announce Messiah this week.

I don't know, with Denis saying a bunch of times that he'd want to do something else first before finishing his Dune story, it might be a while before we hear official word on Messiah. Dune 2 got off the ground as quickly as it did thanks to Denis originally planning to shoot both it and the first movie together, and presumably already having a script, or at least something close to one, ready to go. Also, that first movie was bringing in impressive amounts of international revenue for almost a month by the time it opened in the US, so the studios had plenty of time to make the final decision. Messiah will most likely be made, there's little doubt about it at this point, but I think it's another 4-5 years off.

[titanic2187]

1 hour ago, ando said:

So Timothee is the lead in the two biggest films since last summer. Pretty crazy moment for him. 

Now he has controlled two major commodities of the world. Chocolate and spice. 

[vale9001]

44 minutes ago, Starphanluke said:

If this thing has an 8 in front of it’s number for the weekend, WB and Legendary will do what they did last time and announce Messiah this week.

 

 

Honestly with this hype is growing up  Villenueve should just close this saga with a new movie in the fall of 2026.  Hope Warner can convince him and we don't have to wait until 2028 😭

[Joyous Legion]

1 hour ago, ando said:

So Timothee is the lead in the two biggest films since last summer. Pretty crazy moment for him. 

Pretty crazy moment for "since last summer" when you consider that the two films combined don't make for an especially large number of tickets 

[PNF2187]

4 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Now he has controlled two major commodities of the world. Chocolate and spice. 

I was gonna say something along the lines of chocolate spiced lattes but spicy chocolate lattes already exist. I feel there was a missed opportunity to do some cross promo with Wonka and Dune since they're both WBD, but I guess the popcorn bucket was already weird enough. Still need to get one of those for myself.

 

As an aside, Dune: Part Two was fantastic. I saw it on Thursday and it gets better the more I think about it. I think Arrival is still going to remain my favourite Villeneuve movie, but it's great to see it doing well.

[ThomasNicole]

22 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

I don't know, with Denis saying a bunch of times that he'd want to do something else first before finishing his Dune story, it might be a while before we hear official word on Messiah. Dune 2 got off the ground as quickly as it did thanks to Denis originally planning to shoot both it and the first movie together, and presumably already having a script, or at least something close to one, ready to go. Also, that first movie was bringing in impressive amounts of international revenue for almost a month by the time it opened in the US, so the studios had plenty of time to make the final decision. Messiah will most likely be made, there's little doubt about it at this point, but I think it's another 4-5 years off.

Agreed, but they don´t really need to come out soon to officially announce it and boost the conversation 

 

I think they´ll announce it without a date but confirming it´ll be made, maybe in time for the second weekend 

[Starphanluke]

28 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

I don't know, with Denis saying a bunch of times that he'd want to do something else first before finishing his Dune story, it might be a while before we hear official word on Messiah. Dune 2 got off the ground as quickly as it did thanks to Denis originally planning to shoot both it and the first movie together, and presumably already having a script, or at least something close to one, ready to go. Also, that first movie was bringing in impressive amounts of international revenue for almost a month by the time it opened in the US, so the studios had plenty of time to make the final decision. Messiah will most likely be made, there's little doubt about it at this point, but I think it's another 4-5 years off.

They don’t have to give a date that’s soon, or even date it at all. I think they’ll just confirm it’s happening.

[ThomasNicole]

Very curious about OS numbers, i think SAT can see some huge jumps on foreign markets as well

[vale9001]

I know people love to root for the artists against the mean machines are the majors but... I mean ..Warner gave 200M dollars to Villenueve for BD 2049 and that was a big flop.

 

You could expect for him to do several "Little hits" before getting again the budget for a big movie...but It got It soon and even for such a "cursed" project like Dune. Warner said " BD2049 was a flop but we think you're talented and we still believe in you".

Again the movie Is not a flop but you can't call It a success just from the box office. They still gave him 200M again for another movie.

 

IMO Warner earned some voice on how the next chapter and all the saga should be planned 😇

 

 

Edited March 3 by vale9001

[Wotad]

5 hours ago, dallas said:

Yeah I wasn't trying to call you out in bad faith or anything, apologies if it seemed that way. And I do agree that all this $1B talk is too much. $600M or higher is a fantastic target for a movie like this, it doesn't need $1B to be a success. 

That person has been bad faith and just plain wrong with a lot of what hes said so wouldnt be outrageous to call anything he says bad faith. 

[DInky]

18 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

I know people love to root for the artists against the mean machines are the majors but... I mean ..Warner gave 200M dollars to Villenueve for BD 2049 and that was a big flop.

 

You could expect for him to do several "Little hits" before getting again the budget for a big movie...but It got It soon and even for such a "cursed" project like Dune. Warner said " BD2049 was a flop but we think you're talented and we still believe in you".

Again the movie Is not a flop but you can't call It a success just from the box office. They still gave him 200M again for another movie.

 

IMO Warner earned some voice on how the next chapter and all the saga should be planned 😇

 

 

Warner didn't finance the film. They simply distributed it in North America.