Weekday Numbers (3/25-28)

[titanic2187]

1 hour ago, Squire said:

Is that the current theory? Sony fudged the weekend numbers to make it look better?

The Saturday number does look very odd to me because they came in way higher than estimate, almost by a million. This is unprecedented as most of the difference between actual vs estimate should be from Sunday. And Sony does have a reason to "fudge" the number so that they can have OW bigger than GB:A (45m vs 44m) but I am not sure why they think they need a million to achieve that. 

 

Friday and Sunday number looks alright and sensible though. 

 

 

[Squire]

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

The Saturday number does look very odd to me because they came in way higher than estimate, almost by a million. This is unprecedented as most of the difference between actual vs estimate should be from Sunday. And Sony does have a reason to "fudge" the number so that they can have OW bigger than GB:A (45m vs 44m) but I am not sure why they think they need a million to achieve that. 

 

Friday and Sunday number looks alright and sensible though. 

 

 

If Sony did fudge the numbers, is there any precedence for this? That eventually has to come to light (possibly with a correction weeks from now), right?

[ChipDerby]

2 minutes ago, Squire said:

If Sony did fudge the numbers, is there any precedence for this? That eventually has to come to light (possibly with a correction weeks from now), right?

 

WB fudged Man of Steel numbers and we just lived with it.

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, Squire said:

If Sony did fudge the numbers, is there any precedence for this? That eventually has to come to light (possibly with a correction weeks from now), right?

Nothing beats Transformers 2 OW. Mojo put a caveat. 

 

* Note: Revenge of the Fallen's weekend gross fell $3 million short of Paramount's Sunday estimate, which would have put the five-day opening at $198.2 million. Though shy of $200 million, it would have still ranked second among the all time five-day starts. However, Paramount revised its grosses from Wednesday and Thursday upward, and that's what pushed the total past $200 million. Wednesday went from $60.6 million to $62.0 million, and Thursday went from $28.6 million to $29.1 million. Paramount reported that the differences came from unreported showings from the movie's midnight openings on Wednesday night, which went from the previously reported $16 million at around 3,000 theaters to $16.8 million at close to 3,300 theaters, as well as late reports from institutional IMAX locations and theaters in Puerto Rico and some Caribbean islands (which the studio counts in its domestic numbers), which accounted for $1.1 million of the difference.
 

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/article/ed3464102916/

[Bob Train]

2 hours ago, Ziddletwix said:

 

 

Only -15% drop for KFP4? Is that expected? (All its recent drops have been so much higher). Should we expect similarly low drops throughout this week & this weekend, or is there some reason this Monday would be an outlier?

Pre-Easter weekdays has the second round of Spring Breaks.  Zootopia also followed this trend in the weekdays before Easter. The impact is larger for kids films which usually see lower weekdays.

[titanic2187]

11 minutes ago, Squire said:

If Sony did fudge the numbers, is there any precedence for this? That eventually has to come to light (possibly with a correction weeks from now), right?

That depend how industry peers choose to respond. When paramount fudged their number for Transformers 2 and 4, it did cause some industry backlash and was widely reported and debated since everyone has the access to the behind the wall data know they are lying, but in the case for ghostbuster, there isn’t any noise at all, meaning the industry likely think the “margin of lying” is acceptable and isn’t too far from reported 45m.

[charlie Jatinder]

If it was some serious benchmark like $100M, there would have been some noise. Now with $43M, who care attitude is there.

[leoh]

13 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

If it was some serious benchmark like $100M, there would have been some noise. Now with $43M, who care attitude is there.

I have a more simple theory: Ghostbusters 45M OW reported by Sony is correct and so there’s no reason for noise, then there’s no noise.   

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 26 by leoh

[kayumanggi]

 

[JustLurking]

 

21 minutes ago, leoh said:

I have a more simple theory: Ghostbusters 45M OW reported by Sony is correct and so there’s no reason for noise, then there’s no noise.   

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 26 by JustLurking

[wildphantom]

 

Ray cashed in $2 million of options he sold on juice future contracts. It’s the only explanation. 

[leoh]

25 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

 

 

 

 

“but 9.25M to 10M would have been too much of a stretch”…

 

I can help you if you can’t understand what this means… guess what, I was saying I don’t believe in the 9.25M theory. 😉

Edited March 26 by leoh

[ThomasNicole]

11 minutes ago, leoh said:

 

 

 

“but 9.25M to 10M would have been too much of a stretch”…

 

I can help you if you can’t understand what this means… guess what, I was saying I don’t believe in the 9.25M theory. 😉

But you think 9.5 was right and WB number indeed was a lie, like Charlie said and it’s also saying about Ghostbusters but now you strongly disagree.
 

That’s the joke i think, a very harmless one. 
 

It’s not about the numbers since they’re all too close in all examples.

Edited March 26 by ThomasNicole

[TwoMisfits]

Another option on Ghostbusters is they carried some of the Atom $5 ticket juice forward (ala Sound of Freedom with the prebought tickets) and as they get used (b/c I could have bought all the way through Easter weekend), the days will all just be a tiny bit lower...

[JimmyB]

Movie Title	Gross	%YD	%LW	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Days In Release
1	(1)	Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire	$2,852,113	-75%		4,345	$656	$47,856,786	4
2	(2)	Dune: Part Two	$1,838,568	-66%	-34%	3,437	$535	$235,203,895	25
3	(3)	Kung Fu Panda 4	$1,678,560	-65%	-17%	3,805	$441	$134,617,240	18

 

2.85 for Ghostbusters exactly what was posted this morning

[Cmasterclay]

 

 

I hope this is his new movie after Gladiator.

[Eric S'ennui]

Serious question: has Ridley Scott ever listened to a P Diddy song in his entire life? I'll bet my money on "no".

[ChipDerby]

1 hour ago, Eric Atreides said:

Serious question: has Ridley Scott ever listened to a P Diddy song in his entire life? I'll bet my money on "no".

 

Not willingly

[wattage]

Lurker here! Hello.

 

If a user thinks even the difference between 500k fudged and 750k fudged is too much then yes it makes sense that they would also think that fudging over a million is not believable. The internal logic is definitely there. I usually lurk on here in silence and read through the tracking and weekend/weekday threads. I'm not a tracking expert by any means I just really like seeing the process. I just wanted to share from a slightly outside perspective. 

 

The 43.5 numbers, if accurate, will equalize eventually. The source is usually accurate and trustworthy. I just hope that happens soon and not with a Sony retraction 6 months from now so we can just wrap this up. And if evidence of the equalizing is posted and if it's not accepted just because of being a fan of the movie, then that can definitely be called out. Just wanted to give my 2 cents. I'm gonna disappear again now. Sorry if this felt intrusive! 

 

Edited March 27 by wattage

[titanic2187]

1 hour ago, wattage said:

Lurker here! Hello.

 

If a user thinks even the difference between 500k fudged and 750k fudged is too much then yes it makes sense that they would also think that fudging over a million is not believable. The internal logic is definitely there. I usually lurk on here in silence and read through the tracking and weekend/weekday threads. I'm not a tracking expert by any means I just really like seeing the process. I just wanted to share from a slightly outside perspective. 

 

The 43.5 numbers, if accurate, will equalize eventually. The source is usually accurate and trustworthy. I just hope that happens soon and not with a Sony retraction 6 months from now so we can just wrap this up. And if evidence of the equalizing is posted and if it's not accepted just because of being a fan of the movie, then that can definitely be called out. Just wanted to give my 2 cents. I'm gonna disappear again now. Sorry if this felt intrusive! 

 

This statement is certainly not true. Unlike publicly reported BO, which subject to peer reviews, the so-called “sources” does not face the same scrutiny and a lot of time it was just a “claim” where no one can cross examine or even bother to address. That is why I never buy that WB inflated dune preview grosses claim and i believe it is merely a round up. 

In the case of GB, the odd ones is Saturday number , which conveniently put GB:FE above GB:A for OW and this indeed serve a “criminal” motive, especially the unusual low Monday number fit the theory.