Weekend Numbers | actuals | 80.01M G×K: THE NEW EMPIRE | 11.35M DUNE II

[TheFlatLannister]

26 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

It’s a sequel to one of the most culturally relevant movies of the century, and has Lady Gaga in it, pretty easy sell.

If it's truly a musical I don't think it will be a good sell at all for young/mid-aged men 

[TheFlatLannister]

I'm seeing $28.4M for Godzilla (as of 8 pm EST which is still early), so probably flat from yesterday. Let's see what Jatinder thinks in a few hours 

[lorddemaxus]

2 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

Keep in mind we're going by a guy who hasn't even seen the movie vs. at least one source who described it as a "jukebox musical", for whatever that means. There's a LOT of theory and very little evidence here.  I'm very skeptical they would actually license all that out and pay 200 mil for a sequel just for "pindrops" though.

I am sure the cinematographer has seen the movie bud. Also licensing music isn't that expensive. Again, multiple movies license music they barely use. Including the first Joker,  which had 16 licensed tracks.

[Mojoguy]

36 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Uh no that's the preview plus true Friday number. That would be a massive jump from true Friday to pull off. 

37+27+18

 

$82M OW for GxK would be fantasic. Could be a nailbiter with Dune 2.

[JimmyB]

I think Joker 2 is Todd Phillips Pennies from Heaven.

 

Todd Philips takes inspiration from early 80s movies you can see Bachelor Party in Hangover & The King of Comedy in Joker. 

 

 

[Johnny Tran]

'Joker 2' is going to be every bit as divisive as the first one even though I don't really think the first one was all that divisive, it just had some loud detractors online and in media spaces that tried to spread their weirdly obsessive narratives about what they thought the movie was trying to say.  

 

It will be divisive for different reasons.  I hope everyone is ready for the months of endless droning on about it... 

[dallas]

1 hour ago, MightyDargon said:

Zaslav is gonna have his buzz harshed in a big way when Joker 2 underperforms.

It won't. 

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

I’m going with 78M for GxK this weekend.

 

And I think that if it’s good, Twisters will be one of the five biggest movies this year.

[bcf26]

Buckle up my fellow gentlemen and please follow my advice.

Bring extra underwear and pants when you watch Godzilla x Kong:The New Empire.

I'm glad I did.

[filmnerdjamie]

 

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I'm seeing $28.4M for Godzilla (as of 8 pm EST which is still early), so probably flat from yesterday. Let's see what Jatinder thinks in a few hours 

Finished flat compared to yesterday
$27.66M final comp avg

 

	Panda 4	Ghostbusters	Godzilla
10:00 PM
Seats Sold	555	670	1262

 

 

It had really good late walkups which is a good sign it may rise from Jatinder's number 

Edited March 31 by TheFlatLannister

[ando]

Great for GxK but personally I'd like to see Dune retain the 2024 OW title until June lol. So just stop at $79-80M thanks!

[AniNate]

I'm not gonna do mental gymnastics to dog on Zaslav's choice in projects that he does actually let be seen to public release; he clearly does have a certain skill at that. But I still think the practice of killing others for the tax writeoff is unethical and antiart at its core and should be condemned.

[excel1]

2 hours ago, Bob Train said:

Still don’t see how a movie with one of the most famous fictional characters of all time and sequel to a $1b grossing movie is a harder sell than an introspective 3-hour long hard sci-fi like Dune…

 

Agreed x 1000000. JOKER also functioned as the quasi sequel we always wanted needed and never had to Ledger's iconic take. 

 

Joker 2 featuring Lady fucking Gaga as Harley is going to enormous. 

Edited March 31 by excel1

[Relevation]

4 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

I don't think the movie will be PLF heavy enough for it to matter. Deadpool 3 isn't going to be a Endgame/NWH/Barbenheimer type phenomenon for Twisters to suffer the same fate as Pikachu/Matrix/MI7. 

Dungeons & Dragons fell off over 63% against Super Mario Bros despite it having an A- CS, the Easter holiday cushion, and Mario being a PG family film. Twisters’ drop against DP&W will undoubtedly be notably worse and could eclipse 65-70% if the movie isn’t super good

[M37]

3 hours ago, Bob Train said:

It’s a sequel to one of the most culturally relevant movies of the century, and has Lady Gaga in it, pretty easy sell.

Ok, but why was it “one of the most culturally relevant movies of the century”? Because it had broader social themes beyond the basic story itself, and those themes resonated at that moment in time in a way that facilitated an major expansion of the audience pool

 

Not unlike say Black Panther - or even Barbie - and while we don’t have a BPWF scenario where the lead actor passed away before the sequel, I do not think it’s prudent to expect that same cultural phenomenon to repeat, snd set the baseline expectation at the same level 

 

tl;dr - not often is lighting caught in a bottle twice 

[Bob Train]

13 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Dungeons & Dragons fell off over 63% against Super Mario Bros despite it having an A- CS, the Easter holiday cushion, and Mario being a PG family film. Twisters’ drop against DP&W will undoubtedly be notably worse and could eclipse 65-70% if the movie isn’t super good

Jumanji dropped only 55% against TROS. Kong Skull Island dropped 54% against BATB. Both of those were $170m openers. If WOM is good I don't see it dropping 70% at all, the path to a better hold is there, although I agree they should find a better date, Summer isn't particularly packed so shouldn't be too hard.

[AniNate]

I might've said this April would've been a good slot for Twisters if they could've gotten it done in time. 

 

As it is the big issue is IMAX I think. It's fully booked through the summer and Uni has Despicable Me for the two weeks before Twisters, otherwise just moving Twisters up a week would've given it some distance from Deadpool, though I still don't think it's the kind of buzzsaw that Barbenheimer might've been to Dead Reckoning. Twisters might drop hard against it but not a whole lot of comp beyond Deadpool so should still be able to hold through August if word-of-mouth is decent.

 

 

Edited March 31 by AniNate

[TheFlatLannister]

30 minutes ago, M37 said:

Ok, but why was it “one of the most culturally relevant movies of the century”? Because it had broader social themes beyond the basic story itself, and those themes resonated at that moment in time in a way that facilitated an major expansion of the audience pool

 

Not unlike say Black Panther - or even Barbie - and while we don’t have a BPWF scenario where the lead actor passed away before the sequel, I do not think it’s prudent to expect that same cultural phenomenon to repeat, snd set the baseline expectation at the same level 

 

tl;dr - not often is lighting caught in a bottle twice 

Well said. In this climate, I'm just not sure a CBM can catch the "proverbial lighting in the bottle" twice. 

Seems to me something like $700M is a lot more likely than $1B 

 

My biggest drawback from Joker breaking out again is it just doesn't have a clear draw. Deadpool has Hugh Jackman, No Way Home had Andrew and Tobey, Joker 2 has a musical, lady Gaga?? I don't think that's good enough of a selling point to 18-35 yr old men to really breakout. 

Edited March 31 by TheFlatLannister

[AniNate]

Also Twisters will likely be PG-13 vs Deadpool's R, that will limit audience overlap in itself.