Weekend estimates | 31.70M GODZILLA × KONG: TNE | 10.10M MONKEY MAN | 9.00M GHOSTBUSTERS: FE | 8.36M THE FIRST OMEN | 7.85M KFP IV | 7.20M DUNE II

[wildphantom]

Three months into the year I can honestly say if I was 10 years old I’d have seen Kung Fu Panda, maybe Ghostbusters, and that’s it.  Migration and Wonka if I hadn’t seen them at the end of last year. 
 

If the movies aren’t coming out then what are families supposed to come out and see exactly?  
 

To me, this year so far has panned out fine considering what’s actually been released to date.  Too much emphasis placed on films that wouldn’t have done great in any year.  Once the mass audience appealing product starts picking back up again we’ll see bigger numbers. 

[SchumacherFTW]

8 minutes ago, M37 said:

Why none of the MTCs have yet to roll out a Family Rewards/Discount program in some form is beyond me. Just seems like a total missed opportunity to create future frequent moviegoers

Blows my mind that from what I can gather here, no chain offers a dedicated family ticket of any kind. Most of the chains here in the UK have a 1 adult and 1 child ticket now where both pay the kids price. 

[JimmyB]

The problem I see for theaters, we are comparing GxK a 2024 movie to Godzilla a 2014 movie movie.  Why is this a problem for theaters? What's the ATP in 2014 vs 2024?  If the ATP increased 35% that means a decrease in tickets sold by 35%.  Where did the 35% of the consumer base go? The population increased since 2014.

 

Everything, in 2024 cost more to run a business from labor, rent, food, heating and air vs 2014.  Yet, theaters revenue < 10 years ago.  This is bad.  

 

Theaters seem to be raising prices more and pushing people to see everything in PLFs (where they can charge even more).  See Challengers in IMAX! They are squeezing every dollar they can out of a decreasing consumer base.  This is why I think original IP will continue to fail in theaters because people will wait for the "event movie" "fear of missing out movie" to spend 100 dollars plus for a family of 4 night out at the theater.  

[TwoMisfits]

12 minutes ago, M37 said:

But it’s the only real family movie, so will be held mostly by default. Migration was still in 2400 locations in week 11, before KDP4 came out. The overall release schedule will be stronger (Migration was still top 6 that week!), so wouldn’t bank on that number, but should have no problem keeping 2000+ through April, maybe ~1500 until late May 

 

Maybe.  It will also depend on where it ranks on BO/screen...you get held when you are staying near the top of the average.

 

Right now, Ghostbusters, Kong, and KFP4 are all drawing families of 8+.  Unlike Migration, none of them draw "little kids", so there's no need to choose one over the other except by box office.

 

To be held long term, you have to keep having openers open and fail.  Next weekend, the 4 March movies (Dune, KFP4, Ghostbusters, and Godzilla) will probably be safe again at their theaters b/c this weekend's openers bombed and Civil War is the only thing of note opening next weekend (with a Shrek re-release).  So, there will still be enough screens to carry the big 4 (plus this weekend's openers 2 week requirements and this week's openers) at most midsize and up theaters.  And that will probably continue on the April 19 weekend b/c this week's 2 openers will get dropped as will the Shrek re-release for Abigail, Spy, and the Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare...

[harry713]

43 minutes ago, cookieleeann said:

Honestly if I had my own family, the sad unfortunate truth is I don't think I would go to the movies frequently at all. It's just too expensive and streaming has made it easier for families to wait for a film at home rather than spend loads of money on a single IMAX ticket that cost almost $20 each In my city. 

 

I recently found some old ticket stubs from 2012 & a 2D ticket was like $8 at one of my local theaters. Now it's $15 for 2D & $18 for IMAX .That really adds up. I just can't blame people for being picky these days. Growing up in the 90s tickets were just so cheap, we were heading to the movies every weekend for family time. Now everyone I know barely goes unless it's some event type thing like Barbenheimer or Dune. 

 

I'll always prefer the theater experience but again, I understand why others don't. 

I guess it also depends on how often you frequent the theater. I pay $25 a month for my AMC A-List pass, which is $2 cheaper than my current Netflix subscription, and have seen 17 films this year, mostly in Dolby, and spent an average of $5.88 a ticket so far (4 monthly payments x $25), which will keep averaging down as I see more films this month. 
 

My point being, if theatergoing is an activity someone wants to invest time in it doesn’t need to be expensive in 2024, and in fact I’m spending significantly less than I did in 2008 when I was at the theater all summer long, and without a guaranteed seat. 

Edited April 7 by harry713

[MightyDargon]

Just now, TwoMisfits said:

 

Maybe.  It will also depend on where it ranks on BO/screen...you get held when you are staying near the top of the average.

 

Right now, Ghostbusters, Kong, and KFP4 are all drawing families of 8+.  Unlike Migration, none of them draw "little kids", so there's no need to choose one over the other except by box office.

 

To be held long term, you have to keep having openers open and fail.  Next weekend, the 4 March movies (Dune, KFP4, Ghostbusters, and Godzilla) will probably be safe again at their theaters b/c this weekend's openers bombed and Civil War is the only thing of note opening next weekend (with a Shrek re-release).  So, there will still be enough screens to carry the big 4 (plus this weekend's openers 2 week requirements and this week's openers) at most midsize and up theaters.  And that will probably continue on the April 19 weekend b/c this week's 2 openers will get dropped as will the Shrek re-release for Abigail, Spy, and the Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare...

Yeah but that basically ends 1st week of May. I don't think Ghostbuster/Panda will have much gas left by then against whatever opener will eat up 4,000 screens. Note that there weren't THAT many openers overall due to the strike. Ghost/Panda/Kong/Dune is basically only 4 movies that most of the audience wants to see. So once a whole bunch of summer drops start happening I fully expect the March releases to clear out fast.

[wildphantom]

5 minutes ago, JimmyB said:

The problem I see for theaters, we are comparing GxK a 2024 movie to Godzilla a 2014 movie movie.  Why is this a problem for theaters? What's the ATP in 2014 vs 2024?  If the ATP increased 35% that means a decrease in tickets sold by 35%.  Where did the 35% of the consumer base go? The population increased since 2014.

 

Everything, in 2024 cost more to run a business from labor, rent, food, heating and air vs 2014.  Yet, theaters revenue < 10 years ago.  This is bad.  

 

Theaters seem to be raising prices more and pushing people to see everything in PLFs (where they can charge even more).  See Challengers in IMAX! They are squeezing every dollar they can out of a decreasing consumer base.  This is why I think original IP will continue to fail in theaters because people will wait for the "event movie" "fear of missing out movie" to spend 100 dollars plus for a family of 4 night out at the theater.  

Amazing Spider-Man 2 made $202 million in 2014 to Spider-Man 2’s $373.5 million in 2004. Same difference, even bigger discrepancy. The law of diminishing returns in a franchise with numerous sequels. Has always happened. 

[Krissykins]

Yeh I think we have it lucky here in the UK. I’ve been to see 15 new films in cinemas already in 2024. Cineworld card for the win. 

[narniadis]

55 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

Please stop with the "middle class dad" anecdotes. They're essentially the equivalent of political stuff in the Civil War thread and make it even harder to determine what is factually occurring. 

Considering that reality proves your point wrong this is an asinine take LOL. 

But then again, I remember being the young Box Office Fanatic and not understanding why the older crowd (even older than @baumer lol) used to gripe some on the BOM boards. Over 20 years of following the topic shows the same trends and ebb and flow. YES the younger crowd / date crowd has been the larger pocket for decades - but where does the money for that demo come from? If the "middle class dads" don't have the funds or time, its a near guarantee that the younger gens also don't have as much relatively speaking.

Then, look at the actual data from media companies about usage and streaming and we realize the younger demo is also hit by the lack of appreciation for the long-film format and it creates a wider divide that the older crowd cannot overcome.

 

Funny, I am not usually so negative when I am on this board, but my pov as an accountant means I am looking at the info from pure data points and reality instead of wishful thinking.

 

My wife and I talk about when we saw xyz movie - Facebook memory just this week was from Captain America 2's OW in 2024 - back when we had more money and time and went nearly every weekend because we love the experience. The last OW we went to? Black Panther in 2022. There are some realities that may not be apparent to those in a bubble - but factually exist and are a major part of whats going on.

 

I will enjoy finally getting around to MI7 this week, as I also see that Poor Things is on Hulu. It's not for lack of desire but lack of time and financial ability. If you have kids, and are invested in them, you will understand this some day.

[PlatnumRoyce]

32 minutes ago, M37 said:

Why none of the MTCs have yet to roll out a Family Rewards/Discount program in some form is beyond me. Just seems like a total missed opportunity to create future frequent moviegoers

Regal tested out a family plan in IIRC December. I have no idea what happened to it.

 

Edited April 7 by PlatnumRoyce

[SchumacherFTW]

2 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Yeh I think we have it lucky here in the UK. I’ve been to see 15 new films in cinemas already in 2024. Cineworld card for the win. 

I ditched Cineworld for Odeon last year (just way more convenient in central London), so far this year I've used it a total of.... Once 😅 yay fatherhood. 

[MightyDargon]

2 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Considering that reality proves your point wrong this is an asinine take LOL. 

But then again, I remember being the young Box Office Fanatic and not understanding why the older crowd (even older than @baumer lol) used to gripe some on the BOM boards. Over 20 years of following the topic shows the same trends and ebb and flow. YES the younger crowd / date crowd has been the larger pocket for decades - but where does the money for that demo come from? If the "middle class dads" don't have the funds or time, its a near guarantee that the younger gens also don't have as much relatively speaking.

Then, look at the actual data from media companies about usage and streaming and we realize the younger demo is also hit by the lack of appreciation for the long-film format and it creates a wider divide that the older crowd cannot overcome.

 

Funny, I am not usually so negative when I am on this board, but my pov as an accountant means I am looking at the info from pure data points and reality instead of wishful thinking.

 

My wife and I talk about when we saw xyz movie - Facebook memory just this week was from Captain America 2's OW in 2024 - back when we had more money and time and went nearly every weekend because we love the experience. The last OW we went to? Black Panther in 2022. There are some realities that may not be apparent to those in a bubble - but factually exist and are a major part of whats going on.

 

I will enjoy finally getting around to MI7 this week, as I also see that Poor Things is on Hulu. It's not for lack of desire but lack of time and financial ability. If you have kids, and are invested in them, you will understand this some day.

If having kids makes me write insufferable long posts like yours, no thanks.

[SchumacherFTW]

11 minutes ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

Regal tested out a family plan in IIRC December. I have no idea what happened to it.

 

Yeah that's what we've been doing in the UK for at least 30 years

[filmlover]

Been catching up on this thread and will say that if we're considering a prequel to The Omen not lighting the box office on fire as a sign original/non-IP-based movies are dead, it might be time to pack that discourse up. 

 

(aware that it's more disappointment for some that Monkey Man ended up the latest example of online hype not translating to the real world, but it won't be the last either)

[AniNate]

There really is nothing still for families until IF, so I don't think theaters will be any more eager to kick out Panda than Migration. What you might see is Panda being reduced to matinees late in its run while Fall Guy gets the screen as extra evening showtimes.

[MightyDargon]

6 minutes ago, AniNate said:

There really is nothing still for families until IF, so I don't think theaters will be any more eager to kick out Panda than Migration. What you might see is Panda being reduced to matinees late in its run while Fall Guy gets the screen as extra evening showtimes.

Nah, they'll kick it. Unless all the releases are hard R there's very good incentive to punt Panda by 1st week May. It's not exactly a Mario situation where the movie was a super blockbuster in and of itself that warranted being kept over other, newer releases.

 

Keep in mind Panda's streaming release is April 9. This gives theaters even less incentive to leave it on over exclusives they'll get.

Edited April 7 by MightyDargon

[AniNate]

You don't want to completely shut out a potential audience, even if it's only worth investing in one or two showings on one screen. No right-minded family with a 4 year old is gonna be buying tickets to Fall Guy, Abigail, or Apes

[filmlover]

It's still curious that nobody placed anything major on 5/31 unless they thought Garfield/Furiosa and Bad Boys were big enough that they would get lost in the shuffle being sandwiched between them. The Crow could've moved up a week to that date.

[AniNate]

20 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

 

 

Keep in mind Panda's streaming release is April 9. This gives theaters even less incentive to leave it on over exclusives they'll get.

 

As for this, PVOD doesn't mean that much in a post-pandemic world. Migration and Puss had PVOD drops in January.

 

 

Edited April 7 by AniNate

[MightyDargon]

3 minutes ago, AniNate said:

You don't want to completely shut out a potential audience, even if it's only worth investing in one or two showings on one screen. No right-minded family with a 4 year old is gonna be buying tickets to Fall Guy, Abigail, or Apes

They mostly aren't buying tickets to Panda either. Panda played mainly to older kids.