Weekend estimates | 31.70M GODZILLA × KONG: TNE | 10.10M MONKEY MAN | 9.00M GHOSTBUSTERS: FE | 8.36M THE FIRST OMEN | 7.85M KFP IV | 7.20M DUNE II

[emoviefan]

It looks like it will be a fairly solid first weekend of April as long as you don't compare it to last year when Mario opened or even 2 years ago when Sonic 2 opened. The yearly comps are going to be brutal for awhile just based on the movies opening. Not much can be done. It is what it is.

[Kon]

3 minutes ago, jj99 said:

What about Dune. any numbers?

 

[cannastop]

3 minutes ago, jj99 said:

What about Dune. any numbers?

$2 million Friday

[Cmasterclay]

What worries me about the Monkey Man number is how the presales were promising and it ended up crashing on walkups - Civil War looks okay right now but as keyser states it needs to accelerate or else it's heading for mid teens tops. Needs to perform much better over final week than Monkey Man did.

[emoviefan]

5 minutes ago, jj99 said:

What about Dune. any numbers?

2 million for Friday. Probably a 7-8 million weekend if today and tomorrow see decent bumps. 

[Borobudur]

Meh Friday jump across. Only GXK managed to increase over 100%. The Friday bump following Easter friday last year was a lot stronger where almost all holdovers got 100%+ jump. 

 

  

[emoviefan]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

What worries me about the Monkey Man number is how the presales were promising and it ended up crashing on walkups - Civil War looks okay right now but as keyser states it needs to accelerate or else it's heading for mid teens tops. Needs to perform much better over final week than Monkey Man did.

Honestly I think in the end it was always  too niche for Mainstream audiences and they make their ticket buys in the final week and do the walkups. 

[jj99]

3 minutes ago, cannastop said:

$2 million Friday

It had the best Saturday increase in the top 10 last week. I can see it challenging KFP and GB:FE. Deadline's WE drop fro it seems Off.

[Eric the IF]

7 minutes ago, John Marston said:

a good year for rereleases

 

Praying we get a 20th anniversary re-release for The Spongebob Movie. Like I'm not even joking, I would be there on the first fucking day! 🙏

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

What worries me about the Monkey Man number is how the presales were promising and it ended up crashing on walkups - Civil War looks okay right now but as keyser states it needs to accelerate or else it's heading for mid teens tops. Needs to perform much better over final week than Monkey Man did.

Civil War's buzz doesn't seem nearly as contained to certain circles the way Monkey Man's was (Dunst was even on the cover of Variety this week), so there's room for potential crossover appeal to get it to at least high teens.

[Kon]

2 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Honestly I think in the end it was always  too niche for Mainstream audiences and they make their ticket buys in the final week and do the walkups. 

Yeah. Honestly, I was always a little surprised by the high expectations for Monkey Man in this forum. 

 

Monkey Man always seemed a niche concept.

[Borobudur]

Civil war is a very American-story which make it more appealing or familiar to mainstream whereas Monkey Man look more "foreign" and that is why they use Peele in the center of marketing more. Passionate response during pre-release could be very misleading when the key is the how the silent majority react.   

[MrFanaticGuy34]

1 hour ago, wildphantom said:

Loved Toy Story 4. I almost dread every one they add to the franchise as it’s perfect as it is, but they always deliver.  Think I cried at the end. 

You guys aren’t alone when it comes to Toy Story 4. Loved it as well. And i watched all the TS films from the franchise. 🤩🙆🏻‍♀️
 

One of the several fourthquels that is both a crowd and critical pleaser, that many can enjoy. Still the highest grosser with $434M DOM & $1.073B WW. And as far as big animated fourthquels go…TS4 still has the highest RT-rating (97%) of all animated fourthquels.

[filmlover]

FWIW I do think Monkey Man's opening is decent, especially for a movie added so late to the schedule and having no major names involved beyond Peele. If there's any disappointment, it's from the realization of just how little influence very targeted festivals like SXSW truly yield in the bigger picture. Even previous breakouts from there like Bridesmaids and Everything Everywhere All at Once had much more going for them beyond mere festival buzz.

 

The First Omen's launch is pretty meh though, 2024 is still waiting for its first major horror title. My guess is it's going to be either The Watchers or A Quiet Place: Day One.

Edited April 6 by filmlover

[John Marston]

Civil War will underperform. Some people will be turned off because they think it will be a political film and other people will turned off because it apparently isn't really a political film and that's what they want

Edited April 6 by John Marston

[MrFanaticGuy34]

23 minutes ago, John Marston said:

a good year for rereleases

 

Still waiting for an official 30th anniversary theatrical re-release of Disney’s “The Lion King (the original film)”. 🥶

 

It would be very stupid and foolish for theaters if they didn’t re-release that film back on the big screen again in any way. Especially since the film’s lifetime WW-gross is at $968M so far. $32M left to that $1B-mark, and yet we’ve never seen any new theatrical return for the film since the 3D-release back in 2011 (thirteen years ago).

[Eric the IF]

Anecdotal, but Civil War has been brought up by some of my coworkers a couple times over the last couple weeks, including from people who don't seem all movie-centric. I'm still in my "only NTCs can find success" mood, but this has been the one April movie that felt the most like a breakout, in regards  timing and reception and content and execution.

[AniNate]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

FWIW I do think Monkey Man's opening is decent, especially for a movie added so late to the schedule and having no major names involved beyond Peele. If there's any disappointment, it's from the realization of just how little influence festivals like SXSW truly yield in the bigger picture. Even previous breakouts from there like Bridesmaids and Everything Everywhere All at Once had much more going for them beyond mere festival buzz.

 

The First Omen's launch is pretty meh though, 2024 is still waiting for its first major horror title. My guess is it's going to be either The Watchers or A Quiet Place: Day One.

 

Moreso than SXSW, I think it's proof of the limited value of super bowl ads. Uni spent at least like half of their acquisition price on that.

[grim22]

4 minutes ago, AniNate said:

 

Moreso than SXSW, I think it's proof of the limited value of super bowl ads. Uni spent at least like half of their acquisition price on that.

 

Superbowl ads are pretty much the equivalent of setting money on fire. All the ads seem to be "celebrities reprising old roles to sell you things you forgot a second after the ad ended". And the trailers are similar - unless it's the first look of a big movie, no one cares.

[babz06]

18 minutes ago, filmlover said:

FWIW I do think Monkey Man's opening is decent, especially for a movie added so late to the schedule and having no major names involved beyond Peele. If there's any disappointment, it's from the realization of just how little influence very targeted festivals like SXSW truly yield in the bigger picture. Even previous breakouts from there like Bridesmaids and Everything Everywhere All at Once had much more going for them beyond mere festival buzz.

 

The First Omen's launch is pretty meh though, 2024 is still waiting for its first major horror title. My guess is it's going to be either The Watchers or A Quiet Place: Day One.

I agree that the festival didn’t seem to move the needle that much in terms of pre sales or interest. Also Dev Patel isn’t a Keanu Reeves or Jason Statham but 10m opening isn’t that far off from The Beekeeper or John Wick. So it’s an ok opening in the grand scheme of things. 

Edited April 6 by babz06