Weekend estimates | 31.70M GODZILLA × KONG: TNE | 10.10M MONKEY MAN | 9.00M GHOSTBUSTERS: FE | 8.36M THE FIRST OMEN | 7.85M KFP IV | 7.20M DUNE II

[MightyDargon]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It's still curious that nobody placed anything major on 5/31 unless they thought Garfield/Furiosa and Bad Boys were big enough that they would get lost in the shuffle being sandwiched between them. The Crow could've moved up a week to that date.

The Crow looks assy enough that it would get slaughtered by anything.

[AniNate]

6 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

They mostly aren't buying tickets to Panda either. Panda played mainly to older kids.

 

They weren't the biggest proportion but they did still show up in some capacity (probably more or less on the same nominal level as Migration). It's still the only thing out that could potentially draw them at all. The "2 hour babysitter" hook should not be underestimated. 

 

 

Edited April 7 by AniNate

[filmlover]

The Crow '24 does look pretty bad but still, something should've taken that date. June looks quite busy (though It Ends With Us is likely being delayed again).

[crazymoviekid]

11 hours ago, MightyDargon said:

I wouldn't say that yet.

I would!  Based on last Sunday, I was clocking in the final total to be $184M-$192M

[MightyDargon]

3 minutes ago, AniNate said:

 

They weren't the biggest proportion but they did still show up in some capacity (probably more or less on the same nominal level as Migration). It's still the only thing out that could potentially draw them at all. 

Attracting that audience is a very low priority once the actual summer drops start. It's useful for holding pattern months but Migration had to deal with mainly low demand movies in Jan/Feb. Things that actually eat up many screens will release in May. This basically means Panda is stuck with April only as its "easy month". I expect some attrition to kick in once we're about halfway through April but the real impact to be in 1st week May.

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, harry713 said:

I guess it also depends on how often you frequent the theater. I pay $25 a month for my AMC A-List pass, which is $2 cheaper than my current Netflix subscription, and have seen 17 films this year, mostly in Dolby, and spent an average of $5.88 a ticket so far (4 monthly payments x $25), which will keep averaging down as I see more films this month. 
 

My point being, if theatergoing is an activity someone wants to invest time in it doesn’t need to be expensive in 2024, and in fact I’m spending significantly less than I did in 2008 when I was at the theater all summer long, and without a guaranteed seat. 

 

Right, for individuals...

 

Now compare that Netflix subscription monthly cost vs AMC individual subscriber cost to a family of 4-6...and see why families/kids have fallen away from theaters while individual adults have not (and why most blockbusters now have a subscriber floor, but also a pretty hard ceiling, unless they become the true breakouts)...

 

$25 to $27 - $2/month difference...no big deal.

$100-$150 to $27 - $73 to $123/month difference - huge deal.

Edited April 7 by TwoMisfits

[ringedmortality]

Man post cmmasterclay’s copy pasta of saying he’s an old guy at 29 and everyone takes me at face value 

[AniNate]

Fall Guy may have good buzz but I wouldn't say it's a a Mario either or even a Marvel tentpole. Not the kind of movie I think theaters would feel compelled to devote half their screens to.

[TwoMisfits]

This is why holidays (Christmas/Easter) and summer (swim teams/summer camp) are now the only times to sky family movies...families will pay twice a year for movies, and summer kid groups will pay for cheap field trips for their campers (walk into any weekly summer kid movie showing and you see ACRES of campers) - so you have guaranteed huge audiences for those times...and no others.

 

It's why every animated movie fights for those slots now.

[MightyDargon]

3 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Fall Guy may have good buzz but I wouldn't say it's a a Mario either or even a Marvel tentpole. Not the kind of movie I think theaters would feel compelled to devote half their screens to.

I'm not feeling Fall Guy's buzz (it seems largely restricted to here) but I doubt most theaters would keep a 2 month old Dreamworks film that was already streaming onscreen by the time it comes out.

[AniNate]

I know it's a wild comparison but John Wick 4 was on a similar box office total track and was still at 2400 theaters when Guardians 3 came out. With the next month looking like a relative slog compared to last, I see no reason why theaters would be compelled to drop Panda any quicker.

 

 

Edited April 7 by AniNate

[wildphantom]

3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

This is why holidays (Christmas/Easter) and summer (swim teams/summer camp) are now the only times to sky family movies...families will pay twice a year for movies, and summer kid groups will pay for cheap field trips for their campers (walk into any weekly summer kid movie showing and you see ACRES of campers) - so you have guaranteed huge audiences for those times...and no others.

 

It's why every animated movie fights for those slots now.

You always make really good points around prices for families, and right now I agree with you. 
 

However, I still operate with the caveat that streamers putting out decent content for that outlay a month to be unsustainable in the long run.  Netflix might be making money, but they can’t guarantee the sort of sub base they have now will continue.  Same goes for the other streamers, and they’re not even making a dime! 
 

We definitely need more deals for families, which I know you always promote on here as you take advantage of them. 
 

I’m really looking forward to this summer. I think it’s going to surprise a lot of people with how solid it’s going to be. 

[MightyDargon]

1 minute ago, AniNate said:

I know it's a wild comparison but John Wick 4 was on a similar box office total track and was still at 2400 theaters when Guardians 3 came out. With the next month looking like a relative slog compared to last, I see no reason why theaters would be compelled to drop Panda any quicker.

 

 

Okay, why would theaters be so deeply invested in Panda 4 by the 1st week of May? It's the second oldest big movie still playing and it did "good but not super blockbuster" results. I honestly think both Dune and Panda 4 will basically be gone by the 1st week of May. There's only so many little kids whose parents will take them to see Kung Fu Panda and most of them will have seen it by 1st week of May anyway.

[filmlover]

The family films seem pretty well spread out this year. Just need to get Moana 2 and Wicked off of the same weekend since they more or less target the same exact mother/daughter demos. Seems crazy that those two + Gladiator 2 are still all coming out over the pre-Thanksgiving through holiday weekend frame when Venom 3's move has left 11/8 wide open for the holiday kickoff title.

[WorkingonaName]

All movie theatres will be destroyed cultural revolution-style in the next decade. 

[AniNate]

I am wondering about TFOne, I assume if we don't hear anything about that by IF it's getting delayed.

 

I wouldn't complain, need open market for Wild Robot

[titanic2187]

People have been complaining about how expensive the movie ticket got but isn’t that apply to every single product or services in the world? 
 

From furniture, car, electrical appliance, school fees, child care, medicine, real estate, it is everything just got more expensive compared to decade ago and ago. I would say on the relative term, moviegoing probably experience below average inflation rate compared to other things. 

This is called inflation. 

 

[AniNate]

It really is all about what you prioritize, no one likes paying more for stuff so it's an easy thing to single out as an "objective" negative. 

 

I get the loss of appeal in the environment and families taking priority, but I do feel you shouldn't bitch about the "state of the industry" today if you really don't have that much interest in supporting it.

 

 

Edited April 7 by AniNate

[BadOlCatSylvester]

3 minutes ago, AniNate said:

I am wondering about TFOne, I assume if we don't hear anything about that by IF it's getting delayed.

 

I wouldn't complain, need open market for Wild Robot

I wouldn't be surprised if they're running into trouble deciding how to sell it after how Rise of the Beasts underperformed last year. Their similar Turtles relaunch was marred by the stench of its own big budget precursor, and that one was after a 7-year hiatus, while One is due for just a little over a year after Beasts. For now, unless we hear about it at CinemaCon this coming week, I highly doubt it'll make it to its September date. I'll be surprised if it's out any earlier than next summer.

 

I'll also lower my expectations considerably for Fall Guy after how Monkey Man just utterly collapsed. Even $300M worldwide seems like a stretch to me for that one, but we'll see.

[MightyDargon]

If TFOne is getting delayed, it's possible it may be because Paramount is in such dire straits they can't actually market their movies until a buyout occurs.